Swing State Project

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Sunday, October 19, 2003

An Introduction to the Swing State Project

Posted by DavidNYC

My goal with this website is to analyze in detail the political conditions in the toss-up (or "swing") states that will ultimately decide the 2004 presidential election. While I'll make some observations of my own, my hope is that other knowledgeable folks (particularly the posters at my original blog home, the unparalleled DailyKos) will also contribute their ideas.

For the purposes of this project, I consider the following states to be swing states (states that went for Gore in 2000 are in blue; those that went for Bush are in red):

Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

You can read my more on my methodology for picking these states in this post.

If you have any thoughts as to why, in 2004, the Democrats will win any of the states we narrowly lost in 2000 - or, alternately, why we might lose any of the states we narrowly won - please share them in the comments below. I'll post occasional updates drawing everyone's collected wisdom together, in blurbs such as this:

Why we'll win FL this time: Nader voters will come back to the Dem fold; anger over 2000 will increase Dem turnout, especially among minorities; no butterfly ballot this time around.

Why we'll lose FL again: Lots of pork provided by Dubya to FL; Governor Jeb.

Eventually, I hope to have a comprehensive list or chart detailing information like this for all of the swing states. I'm looking forward to hearing what everyone has to say.

Posted at 10:45 PM in General | Technorati

Comments

Paint 'em all blue. We're gonna kick-ass, and take names this time around. Jeb or no Jeb. We gotta ALL get off our butts and run these clowns outta town. Give 'til it hurts. Donate, Volunteer, Blog, any and everything EACH and everyone of us can possibly do to take America back from these Nazis.
--D.A.

Posted by: D.A. at October 22, 2003 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DavidNYC, you got a brain so sharp it's like kryptonite to Bushies. Take it to the top Brother!

Posted by: Sarah4America at October 23, 2003 10:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

There are about a half a million Arab-American voters. In the last presidential election, voter turnout was more than 60 percent- much higher than most ethnic groups. About 70 percent of the population of Arab descent lives in eight states, and seven of them are swing states: Michigan, California, Florida, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In 2002, 44 percent voted for President Bush, 38 percent for former Vice-President Al Gore and 13.5 percent for Ralph Nader, according to Zogby and others. In Michigan, Arab-Americans account for an estimated 4 percent of registered voters.

The duplicitous Shrub garnered Arab votes by in his second debate with Mr. Gore in October 2000, when he advocated the repeal of secret evidence as a tool in prosecuting suspected terrorists. Hah! Amazingly enough, a survey in July by the Arab American Institute showed a nearly equal, three-way split among President Bush, "any Democrat" and undecided voters. You would have to think the secret evidence laws that have been significantly strengthened by the USA Patriot Act and other initiatives of the war on terrorism, would cause some change in heart.

The Arab American Institute wound up their annual leadership conference this week. Howard Dean , the first of the Democratic candidates to sign on to attend the conference, received standing ovations before and after his 45-minute speech on Saturday afternoon.

Posted by: Bernie at October 24, 2003 09:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

does anyone know if we can register to vote in a state that we might not actually be living in? can we use a friend's or relative's swing state address, and make our vote counte there?

Posted by: jm at July 22, 2004 02:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment