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Thursday, April 29, 2004
Flashback to April 2000
Posted by DavidNYCCADem digs up some old polls in a flashback to April 2000. At the time, Gore was down or tied in a number of states we wound up winning, including two that are safe to very safe Dem this time around (MI and IL). On the other hand, he had a pretty substantial lead in NH but wound up losing narrowly (and quite painfully) there.
One thing to note: Most of the polls shown don't have Nader numbers, but a lot do actually have Buchanan numbers. And take a look at how outsize they are! I mean, he was getting 5% in PA - and wound up with an earth-shattering one-third of one percent on election day. The two Nader numbers CADem does have also wound up out-stripping reality by a couple points. So this suggests to me that Seamus may well be right: The Nader effect is likely to be way below his current polling levels.
Posted at 05:00 PM in General | Technorati