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Friday, April 02, 2004
No Kerry Organization (Yet) in Ohio & Other Observations
Posted by DavidNYCOhio, not so surprisingly, has become ground zero in the battle for the Presidency. With 20 EVs, it's the third-largest swing state (behind FL's 27 and just one behind PA), and polls this time around suggest once again that it is up for grabs. Every article on Ohio mentions that no Republican has ever won the White House without taking the Buckeye State. While I obviously don't believe in Hirdt's Law, it's probably true as well that this time out, the GOP can't win without Ohio.
(Democrats, by the way, have taken the White House without Ohio twice in the 20th century: Kennedy in 1960 and FDR in 1944.)
With this in mind, I highly recommend this piece (mentioned to me by a reader) in USA Today by Judy Keen, which does a good job of looking at what's going on in Ohio. There are a few things I'd like to highlight here:
�Ģ Kerry apparently has almost no operation to speak of in Ohio. This is highly distressing. Not only did Kerry have the nomination all but sewn up a month ago, but Ohio was a Super Tuesday state. Didn't he put some kind of field or media operation together there? This is one of those painful times when you just know that, whatever you think of the man, Howard Dean would have had hundreds if not thousands of volunteers already working for him across the state - or rather, continuing to work for him. Let's get a move on, and right quick, Sen. Kerry.
�Ģ One thing I like a lot about this piece is that it does a bunch of SSP-style employment number comparisons, including numbers for the best-off and worst-off counties in the state, in addition to statewide numbers. Keen doesn't mention, though, that even in the county (Holmes) with the lowest unemployment, it's still gone up considerably since Bush took office: From 2.8% to 3.9%.
�Ģ While I'm always hesitant to draw out trends from mere anecdotal evidence - and Keen is quite careful not to - two of the people quoted in the article, who are from seemingly very different backgrounds, both blame 9/11 for their economic woes. (I get the sense that Keen wouldn't have quoted both of them unless it were something she had heard on multiple occasions.) I realize Bush has pushed this line forever, but I'm still a little shocked to see that it's been so successful - and I think my shock is a very bad sign. I think, without realizing it, we let Bush get away with pushing this (dare I use the word?) meme out there, and I can't imagine how we can stuff it back into the bottle.
By the same token, another fellow says that it's his understanding that the economy went south before Bush took office - so, ya know, is it really fair to hold the President responsible? Lots of liberal blogs (at least that I read) ridiculed Bush for lying about when the recession started, but these lies seemingly had an effect. And while ordinarily, I'd agree that there isn't all that much a President can do to fix a broken economy, I know enough to know that there are short-term stimulus measures that should have been implemented but weren't. But once again, Bush has apparently sold this idea with some success.
I raise these points because I think that I - and others - have too glibly assumed that a poor economy would automatically turn voters against Bush. There's no doubt that this has happened, to some extent. And one big weakness in Keen's piece is that she managed only to interview people who still have jobs, despite harping on the employment issue and mentioning several large local layoffs. Plus, most of the people in the piece who defend Bush seem to be Republicans.
But one of the "blame it on 9/11" store-owners quoted is a registered independent. Even though her business has tanked lately, she still can't bring herself to blame Bush - but she is open to the idea of someone improving the situation. I don't know exactly how to reach out to voters like her - the ones who, we are always told, will be deciding this election - but I'd make it a priority of mine if I were the Kerry campaign. Or MoveOn. Or the Media Fund. Or... you get my point. Present a bold, positive economic plan - or something small, clever and targeted. Whatever works, kids. Just do it.
We can't rely on the idea that a bad economy will just churn out new anti-Bush voters. We have to make people believe that we are going to improve their economic lot. That's how Bill Clinton won, after all. And that's how we'll win this time around, too. (As long as we can avoid looking weak on security... but oy, that one I'm not touching.)
Posted at 03:49 AM in Ohio | Technorati
Comments
DavidNYC,
I live in West Central Ohio - Michael Oxley's House District. I'm not sure if this will be of any help, but there is an interesting phenomenon going on here over the closing of a local prison facility. Union or not, most were Repubs or Independent, but to show their displeasure over the fact that Oxley did nothing to help the situation, the displaced employees led a drive for people to register as Dems in the latest primary. More than a thousand in Allen County did.
Oxley got the message, he immediately began showing his face around and got some pork into the Lima Tank Plant, and I imagine got the military to allow a name change they think will help them in the upcoming BARC cuts.
A young attorney named Ben Konop is running against Oxley - probably the first time anyone has waged a serious campaign against him (been in six terms). I'm sure I don't have to tell you about Oxley's suspected (read near certain) manipulation of Harvey Pitt's last minute appointment of another crony to head the financial scandals panel (sorry, the official tag eludes me). If you would like to know more about Oxley's scary connections with the finance industry, go to the Toledo Blade website, they did a great expose. Basically, he gets 85% from out of state, what's from in state is from Columbus. he's raised boatloads of money, and has never had to campaign hard.....
Anyway, the Kerry camp may be able to glom onto this little groundswell in this area. And this race deserves much more attention than it's getting. Oxley is bought and paid for by the finance industry. When asked by the Blade about his shady campaign funds, he basically said, "Well, they keep electing me." I want to force him to give a different answer.
BQ
Posted by: BQ at April 17, 2004 12:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gentlemen: Follow the demand of SENIOR WATCH, P. O. Box 204; Albrightsville, Pa. 18210 in the Pocono Mountains.
We are suing to see Mrs. Kerry's income tax returns for Pennsylvania, and for the Federal U. S. 1040.
Fact: Mrs. Kerry pays only a very low portion of her Billions of income in taxes. That is the real reason she has been so adimate about the request for the TRUTH.
Waterhouse, Coopers in Pittsburg does the returns. The returns for prior years shows another possible "White Water" mess that will cause the country pain and suffering if the Kerry's get elected.
Plan: Let the convention "roll" and the Kerry's be nominated. Let the advertising be continued to be contracted and "Wasted". The FBI know it is coming to a decision for the Kerry's and she will not give in to public demand. The people who pay their "fair share" will demand to see the returns. Democrats and Republicans, and especially Nader will seek the TRUTH about the amount of taxes she pays. It is around $600,000 on BILLIONS. Pass the info on to the local newspapers and TV Stations and watch it "roll over her." She is another Helmsley, just not caught yet in the "big lies."
I used to work for Senator John Heinz and see exactly what Kerry is about. M-o-n-e-y. Mrs. Heinz Kerry used to tell the Senator, "You will run for President over my dead body!" What changed", NOTHING> She is greedy and sees what she can obtain in Money by being First Lady.
Bob King, SENIOR WATCH
On the eighth day God created the Pocono Mountains.
Posted by: Bob King at July 27, 2004 05:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gentlemen: Follow the demand of SENIOR WATCH, P. O. Box 204; Albrightsville, Pa. 18210 in the Pocono Mountains.
We are suing to see Mrs. Kerry's income tax returns for Pennsylvania, and for the Federal U. S. 1040.
Fact: Mrs. Kerry pays only a very low portion of her Billions of income in taxes. That is the real reason she has been so adimate about the request for the TRUTH.
Waterhouse, Coopers in Pittsburg does the returns. The returns for prior years shows another possible "White Water" mess that will cause the country pain and suffering if the Kerry's get elected.
Plan: Let the convention "roll" and the Kerry's be nominated. Let the advertising be continued to be contracted and "Wasted". The FBI know it is coming to a decision for the Kerry's and she will not give in to public demand. The people who pay their "fair share" will demand to see the returns. Democrats and Republicans, and especially Nader will seek the TRUTH about the amount of taxes she pays. It is around $600,000 on BILLIONS. Pass the info on to the local newspapers and TV Stations and watch it "roll over her." She is another Helmsley, just not caught yet in the "big lies."
I used to work for Senator John Heinz and see exactly what Kerry is about. M-o-n-e-y. Mrs. Heinz Kerry used to tell the Senator, "You will run for President over my dead body!" What changed", NOTHING> She is greedy and sees what she can obtain in Money by being First Lady.
Bob King, SENIOR WATCH
On the eighth day God created the Pocono Mountains.
Posted by: Bob King at July 27, 2004 05:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You are despicable Mr. King. You rabid, win at all costs, Repugnantans have already caused this country too much pain. I guess you are choosing to ignore the fact that the Clintons were exonerated over White Water. The only "White Water mess" was created by the likes of you when your right-wing cohorts messed in their pants! Out with you! Out with the likes of you! And, out with your leader!!!
Posted by: Randy at July 27, 2004 07:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The only "Whitewater mess" was the extremely long and expensive investigation which ultimately concluded....there was no wrongdoing by the President or First Lady.
I agree, though, it would be nice to avoid another "mess" of multi-million dollar investigations that linger on for years without any justification besides partisan accusations.
Posted by: Nim at July 27, 2004 10:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PROBABLY? DOUBT? PERHAPS?
Dear First Lady Mrs. Laura Bush,
Mrs. Bush, when I was residing in Texas with my boyfriend in 1979 and 1980, there was a robbery at one of the 7'11 stores where my boyfriend was employed. The robbery took place on the grave yard shift and his statements before me, the police and the owners was, a black man came in with a knife and took all of the money. Through employment, there was a scheduled appearance for him to take a lie detector examination, but instead of his personal appearance, he paid someone to impersonate him. The test went off without a hitch and he was never questioned further.
Mrs. Bush, the reason why I am revealing this to you, is because, even though this young man was not my husband at the time, I knew his character well enough to know, he robbed the 7'11 store himself and fabricated a story to cover his crime. One of the saddest part to the story was, the two owners welcomed us into their family, and treated us with kindness. There are other criminal activities my boyfriend committed in Texas such as, he became a cocaine dealer and sold cocaine to someone he knew abused the substance and later overdosed on his very own birthday. My boyfriend also wrote bad checks at grocery stores and at apartment complexes to cover the cost of rent. Mrs. Bush, how could anyone believe me if I said to them, these facts are probably not true, or the facts are probably altered?
In a previous letter written to President Bush, I stated my former husband and he are very much alike, and with great misfortune, the system we all have to bare with forced me to marry the man that committed these crimes along with others in New York, as well as against the United States Treasury.
Mrs. Bush, we all respect a woman who protects her family at all cost, but if my husband was being accused of something that he was innocent of, instead of me saying, these accusations are probably altered and they probably are a forgery, I would request for him to take a lie detector test to once and for all clear up the matter.
Mrs. Bush, even living with a man you may not be aware of the facts to his criminal activities, but you sure know the character of the man. I may not have been a witness to my boyfriends actions, but I was well aware of his character in the ability to commit them, but I would never defend him or his actions, and this is why we are divorced today.
Mrs. Bush, men like this are very unstable and they are troublemakers, so much so, it took me seven years to be rid of this person from my bedside. It would have never taken place if I didn���t leave messages on judges machines, stating, "I want my divorce!" Yes Mrs. Bush, I did finally receive the divorce papers, but with grave conditions. One of which, my former husband remains in position to manipulate our lives with the assistance of his contacts within the system. It is true that I am divorced from him, but now the system has taken hand in marriage with the devil, and they have been obsessed with my son and I since 1982. there is no denial that I am not fond of the system, primarily because it is well known to be corrupt across the board, but mainly for personal reasons, for the government has been fixated on my son and I, and they just refuse to divorce themselves from their relentlessness.
Mrs. Bush, I questioned President Bush in our letter, ���who is the main culprit?" we know he will never tell us, but the least the President could do is honor our request for assistance to receive new identification. Mrs. Bush, others may say without knowing all the facts of the grim situation, to go to an attorney, and to go to the social security office ourselves. No such given luck Mrs. Bush, for the reason; we are ���black listed from the legal and judicial institute. we are sure you could understand the mischief and various complications the government could cause one who defends their constitutional rights. To apply for a new social security card is futile, for the new number is connected with the old number. Mrs. Bush, I have in my possession a letter that states my former husband intends to see me dead, and another letter with him stating I deserve everything I get and will get.
Mrs. Bush, you could certainly understand our need for new identification, and our request for assistance.
Mrs. Bush, we need someone like yourself to intervene and assist where we our entire record will be omitted from files for security reasons. To multiply the amount of problems the system has created for us throughout the twenty-one years, all one needs is the primary number one to get 2001. Mrs. Bush, being that you are considered the first lady and you speak out on issues that are important to you, we hope you would understand that I am the first lady in my son���s life and we are speaking out on issues that are important to us. We have not committed any crimes, yet there have been many attempts of entrapment on part of the government to provoke the possibility of imprisonment or placement in a mental institution.
Mrs Bush, many people say the bush family is well to do, they have connections. Is that to place fear into the minds of the American citizens, or is that statement offered to provide assistance to an american constituent? We hope to hear President Bush say that is to help an American citizen, not hurt one.
Mrs. Bush, we wait upon your response to our plead for aid, and we pray that your vision is clear to see the urgency to this matter. We thank-you very much for inclining to our concerns and we hope to hear from you soon Mrs. Bush.
Please feel free to contact us at: (916) 607-1246
Sincerely yours,
Tianna and her son
Posted by: Tianna at September 15, 2004 10:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment