Swing State Project

Methodology for National Popular Vote Projection

Because we are so far away from the actual election, a lot more people are currently undecided than almost every single poll would have you believe. Thus, at least until October 1st, it is necessary to take other factors into account besides national trial heats.

I have decided to only use information that is regularly updated. Thus, the three, evenly balanced categories in determining each candidate���s share of the national popular vote are Favorability Ratings, Bush���s Job Approval Ratings, and General Election Trial Heats.

Favorability ratings will be defined as the percentage of people surveyed who do not have a negative opinion of the candidate in question.

Approval Ratings is straightforward. However, two points will be subtracted from Bush���s disapproval rating in every survey in order to account for third party voters.

Trial heats, at least for now, all need to include Ralph Nader as a poll option.

Data range: The most recent poll included in any given category is the sole determining factor in what other polls are used. In order for a poll to be included in any given category, the poll must have been conducted on at least one day when the most recent poll was also conducted.

Calculating the mean: All polls will be translated into a percentage of 100 before combined with other polls. When polls are combined, they will be combined using the central mean rather than the simple mean.

All three categories will be equally weighted until at lest October 1st.

Swing states will only be ���in play��� if the candidates are separated by three points or less in the national popular vote projection.

Methodology for Swing States

1. What is a ���Swing State?���
For the purposes of this project, a swing will be defined as a state where the winner in an extremely close election cannot be predicted based on the national popular vote. Because of this, a swing state thus has the ability to throw the Presidency to the candidate who does not receive the most votes nationwide. It is in this sense and in this scenario that swing states are the true measure of who will win the Presidency.

2. Consider the definition of ���Swing State,��� how can someone predict a state based on the national popular vote?
For all such predictions, I will be using the trends described on this page. A significant majority of states that were decided by less than 10% of the vote in the closest election in history, 2000, are currently following fairly stable long-term voting trends. It is my belief that with few exceptions, these trends will continue in 2004. Considering this, it is also my belief that in an extremely close election, the winner of the vast majority of states���including about half of all states currently considered ���swing states�����will be a foregone conclusion.

3. How are you defining an ���extremely close election?���
For the purposes of this project, an extremely close election would be an election where the national popular vote totals are close enough that it becomes possible for the candidate who finishes second in the national popular vote to win the electoral college. It is my belief that any candidate who wins the national popular vote by three points or more has virtually no chance of losing the electoral college.

4. Ok then. which states do you believe are the ���Swing States?���
Based on long-term state voting trends and what, as far as I can tell, are the limitations of GOTV, advertising, and other local, targeted efforts in a national campaign, I believe that if 2004 is an ���extremely close election��� (less than a three point spread), there will be only eleven swing states: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Kerry���s ���safe��� base in an election decided by 3 points or less: 200 EV���s
CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, NY, WA, VT

Bush���s ���safe��� base in an election decided by 3 points or less: 211 EV���s
AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY, VA

These states are subject to change as I continue to learn about large-scale voting patterns.