Swing State Project

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Wednesday, May 05, 2004

But Who's Counting?

Different organizations count up their lists of swing states differently. Luke Francl tells us who's counting what:

Swing states are those states that people believe the 2004 election will turn on. They are states that were close in the last election. But which states are those? And which states are each campaign and the outside groups focusing on? The following is a list of swing states organized by group, based on their websites and TV advertising. For a brief introduction to the swing states, read this Washington Post story.

Key Findings: There are 17 states (ignoring grassroots efforts) that all groups agree will be key battlegrounds in the 2004 election. Kerry and liberal 527 coalition America Votes are focusing on the same core states, but Kerry just moved into Colorado and Louisiana, which are thought to be safe Republican states. Bush is advertising in Tennessee, where neither Kerry nor America Votes are focused.

Kerry (17 states, plus 2): Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Added recently: Colorado, Louisiana.

Bush (18 states, plus 2): Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Added recently: Colorado, Louisiana. [Added in response to Kerry. - David]

America Votes 527 (17 states): Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Driving Votes (16 states): Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. Note: Driving Votes is ignoring Washington and Maine while adding Tennessee. I am not counting them as a major group as it is a completely grassroots effort not affiliated with America Votes.

Swing State Project (21 states ��� see methodology): Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine (2nd CD), Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

The Bush campaign's list comes closest to mine. My only true outlier state is Virginia. As I've said before, I think this state is heading our way, and if the GOP isn't careful (let's hope they're not), they're going to have a big problem the day VA turns blue. Interestingly, by the way, there are several states that had wider margins than VA but that are still considered "battlegrounds." (Such as WA, MI and LA.)

[Crossposted from BushOut.tv.]

Posted at 01:51 PM in General | Technorati

Comments

Oops, I counted your states wrong (22 versus 21). Better fix that!

Posted by: Luke Francl at May 5, 2004 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment