« Kerry in the West | Main | ARG: Tie in Florida »
Wednesday, May 19, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, May 19
Posted by Chris Bowers(May 17 results in parenthesis)
National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.4 (52.9)
Bush: 47.6 (47.1)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 337 (348)
Bush: 201 (190)
States changing hands: AZ, FL, MO, NH, NV and OH
The new Christian Science Monitor / Investor���s Business Daily poll, combined with the new Rasmussen approval ratings, have allowed Bush to close the gap on Kerry. However, from what I can tell, Kerry still holds a lead outside of the margin or error.
Here are all twelve data points used in the national two-party popular vote projection:
The Four Most recent Bush-Kerry-Nader trial heats: TechnoMetrica, Princeton, Harris, and Zogby
The Four Most Recent Bush Approval Ratings: Princeton, Harris, Zogby and Rasmussen
The Four Most Recent Bush and Kerry Unfavorable Ratings: Harris, Zogby, Opinion Dynamics, and Hart / Teeter
Right now, the number of data points is flexible. However, I am considering fixing the number of data points at the five for each category, simply because the ���five poll moving average��� seems widely accepted in popular political discourse. Anyone have any thoughts on this?
Posted at 08:13 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
I would think that keeping the # of sources consistent is more meaningful than arbitrarily choosing "5". Apart from being a prime number, a number in the Fibonacci sequence, and the number of fingers on one hand, I don't really think "5" is all that special. (Sesame Street fans may beg to differ.)
Posted by: DavidNYC at May 19, 2004 08:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment