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Friday, May 14, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, May 14: Lean Kerry
Posted by Chris BowersNational Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.6
Bush: 48.4
Electoral Vote Projection*
Kerry: 311
Bush: 181
Too close to call: 46 (AR, AZ, CO, MO, NV, WV)
(* = I have adjusted state polls more than two weeks old to account for Kerry���s new lead in the national popular vote projection.)
I have been calculating the General Election Cattle Call for over three weeks now, and this is the first time either candidate has held a large enough lead for the status of the race to not be ���too close to call.��� With a 3.2% lead in the national popular vote projection, I now currently consider the race to be ���lean Kerry.��� As Bush���s approval slumps and as Kerry rises in trial heats, the immediate future looks bright for the junior Senator from Massachusetts. Currently, only two of twelve data points favor Bush: the Rasmussen Approval Rating and the Christian Science Monitor Trail Heat.
It is also interesting to note which states become ���swing states��� now that Kerry has a reasonable national lead over Bush. If Kerry���s lead rises to seven or eight points, some seemingly untouchable Bush states start coming into play (including the Carolinas). Without Nader, Kerry would be ahead by more (but not that much more): 52.02 to 47.98. Whenever a candidate achieves a lead of seven or more points in the national popular vote projection, the status of the race will shift to ���solid Kerry / Bush,��� depending on who is ahead.
Historically speaking, Kerry is in the best position a challenger has ever been in during May. However, although Bush���s numbers look very bad for an incumbent, polls are reflections only of the time period in which they are taken. Presidential election polls are a poor reflection of broad, underlying trends and cannot be easily translated into historical cause and effect. While I expect Kerry���s lead to continue to rise, I also expect that at some point Bush will begin to close the gap. Just because Kerry is in a better position than any previous challenger at this stage in the race does not mean he will continue to be in the best position a challenger has ever been in at later stages of the campaign. Come mid-September, who knows where the race will be.
In other words, keep working.
Posted at 01:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Wow. From your keyboard to God's ears, Chris.
Posted by: DavidNYC at May 14, 2004 01:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nice work David! For future reference, how did you adjust for Kerry's new lead in the popular vote projection?
-rob
Posted by: LiberalAce at May 14, 2004 04:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
All the credit for the GECC belongs to Chris - so he'll have to answer.
Posted by: DavidNYC at May 14, 2004 06:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PLEEEAAASSSEEEE Please please please be right about this!
Posted by: steve at May 14, 2004 06:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry Chris....I should have checked before posting.
Btw, the latest polls on DC's Political Report are now showing Kerry with a comfortable lead in Wisconsin(by 9) and ahead in Florida(by 3). As of this writing, Kerry has 178 EVs when counting states where he's ahead within the MoE. I also included states won by Gore in 2000, which have no polling data yet - i.e. the 10 combined EVs of Delaware, DC, and Hawaii - but left out Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Arkansas: all states where it's tied and with a combined 32EVs between them. This could be turning into the blowout many have predicted!
Posted by: LiberalAce at May 15, 2004 05:40 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What a wonderful way to start my day. You have no idea how hard I'm praying this is how I'll start my days from now until November. Thank you so much for all the work you're doing on this project.
Posted by: Jojuno at May 15, 2004 10:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'd say things are slowly moving towards Kerry. It takes a while for the public to react to and digest news events from Iraq. It looks like the negative public reaction is finally starting to affect the Presidential race now. Surely, many of the undecideds will break Kerry's way, as they're looking for a change from current policy. Unless the economy improves dramatically, Bush will be fighting hard come Nobvember to defend his job. Still 5 1/2 months or so to go. As Zogy said, it's Kerry's race to lose at this point.
Posted by: Rock_nj at May 15, 2004 12:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
More new polls out today! A new Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal poll in Pennsylvania has Kerry ahead by 6 points. The poll has Kerry winning 49% to 43%, with a 4% MoE. Unfortunately, a new poll in Oregon has Kerry behind by 5, but I'll trade 21EVs for 7EVs any day of the week.
Btw, I goofed yesterday when stating that states where Kerry currently leads - and the addition of states he should win, which have no data as of yet - sums to 178EVs. That should have read 278EVs. Using the same method, now gives Kerry 299EVs, with the news in Pennsylvania and Oregon.
Posted by: LiberalAce at May 15, 2004 03:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The PA poll is good news - though of course it is from a Democratic organization. That Oregon poll was seriously wacky - I think it showed 0% support for Nader. How odd.
Posted by: DavidNYC at May 15, 2004 05:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Pete at November 11, 2004 11:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment