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Tuesday, June 08, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 8: Kerry Back in Front
Posted by Chris BowersNational Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.19 (51.42)
Bush: 47.81 (48.58)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 321 (316)
Bush: 217 (222)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH, OH and WV
With the exception of the not-unfavorable ratings, which still stretch back into May, all of the data points in the national vote projection are from June. Also, West Virginia moves into Kerry���s column for the first time in a month.
Some believe that Bush will receive a Reagan bounce. I am not one of those people. Simply based on personality, Reagan made Bush���s father look weak and undesirable by comparison, especially among conservatives. All the talk about Reagan helping to win the cold war won���t help Bush in his war or terror either, since remembering the Soviet Union will just make Bush���s current war look small and pathetic by comparison. If anything, I believe Reagan���s passing will cause Bush to drop in the polls. When an entire week of news coverage is dedicated to painting a former president as one of the greatest Americans of all time, when Bush���s face once again becomes a regular feature on television screens across the country, the difference will be stark.
Posted at 12:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
I wouldn't be surprised to see a small Reagan bounce - something on the level of the Saddam capture, perhaps. But equally fleeting, and definitely nothing that will carry through until November.
The most mileage that I think the GOP will get out of this is that they'll be able to spend about a week or so mau-mauing Democrats into silence. ("You can't engage in politics in a time of mourning!" etc., even though the Republicans are doing exactly that.) But with Clinton's book on the way, this will all be soon forgotten.
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 8, 2004 02:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There may be a bounce, but if so it'll be very small (smaller even than the Saddam bounce) and will die away very fast.
In a way, I think the timing of Reagan's death will help the Dems more that the Republicans. I think if the GOP had their druthers, they would have liked Reagan to go closer to the election. As it is now, we get a week of this stuff, then a little more at the convention (when no one's watching anyway), and that's it. Kerry gets to take a week off and rest up (maybe to make the damned decision to out Edwards on the team, and the anti-Dem rhetoric is rather diluted by the Reagan praise-heaping.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 8, 2004 02:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Missy at November 12, 2004 01:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment