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Friday, June 18, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 18
Posted by Chris Bowers(June 14 Results in Parenthesis)
National Two Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.41 (50.93)
Bush: 49.59 (49.07)
Status: Too close to call
Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 279 (237)
Kerry: 259 (301)
States Changing hands from 2000: NV, NH and WV to Kerry; NM and WI to Bush
Gipperporn is beginning to take its toll. At least according to Pew, there clearly was a Reagan bounce for Bush. The change in the national standing has caused Bush to edge ahead in several states, including FL, NM and WI. If the bounce shows up in future polls, Bush might be able to take a decent lead.
It is still a real struggle. However, Bush is going off the air for a week or two, and the VP pick and convention loom. Things should start to turn around for Kerry, but I am not as confident as I once was.
Posted at 12:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
However, Bush is going off the air for a week or two, and the VP pick and convention loom.
I was sort of amazed to read that Bush is going dark. With all that money, I'd have thought he'd stay on straight through until election day. I guess they really are spending tons and tons.
And let's not also forget our own (much more legit) porn: The Clenis. Book comes out next week. That oughta help sweep away Reagan nostalgia.
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 18, 2004 04:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush going dark makes me very worried that he is panning some sort of $40M ad buy during August when Kerry will be unable to proviide an equivalent response. It will also be when Bush needs it the most, since August and the GOP convention will be his last chance to turn the favorables war in his direciton.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 18, 2004 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Most of these polls are very misleading, I think. For one thing, Nader isn't on the ballot in any but a couple of states. So, to give him 6 points nationwide is ridiculous. I put all of those Nader voters into the Kerry column. And, then, most of these polls have large undecided. Typically, the undecideds break 3-1 or more for the challenger. So, when I see your Washington Poll that gives Kerry a 4 point lead, with 2 points for Nader, and 10 points for undecided that means to me that Kerry has a 13 point lead. (4 + 2 + 3/4*10). Washington isn't close now. I don't see Washington as being close in November.
Posted by: Jonathan at June 19, 2004 12:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment