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Friday, June 25, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 25
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.24 (50.14)
Bush: 49.76 (49.86)
Status: Too close to call
Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284 (284)
Kerry: 254 (254)
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry, WI to Bush
As often happens when there is a slew of new polls, very little changes in the cattle call standings. Fox had great state and national favorables news for Bush, Gallup had terrible favorbale news for Bush and a variety of state polls also had bad news for him.
On a more important note, there will definately be a change to methodology if David Cobb is nominated for President at the Green Party Convention tomorrow. Without the endorsement of several state Green parties, Nader will not be able to have any significant impact on the election. Thus, I would only include two-way trial heats in my calculations.
For more information on the Green party convention, check out MyDD.
Posted at 03:30 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Without the endorsement of several state Green parties, Nader will not be able to have any significant impact on the election.
I think he'll still fight to get on the ballot via signatures, as he's already done in several states.
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 25, 2004 05:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Can I ask what the polls would look like without Fox? They sound like BS polls.
Posted by: Joel Wertheimer at June 27, 2004 07:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
People are going bonkers now over nothing. Polls are not linear, and forcasting a presidential election this far out is about as useful as consulting a psychic. NJ isn't going to go for Bush, and neither will NH, so stop hyper-ventilating. WI, WV, MN, NM, NV, AZ, CO, MO, OH, and FL will be the battlegrounds. I have a buck that says PA and MI are solid Kerry on election day, regardless what some poll might show. I think Bush stands a decent chance of picking up Iowa too, but nobody is going to know until November. The economy is changing, but don't be fooled, it isn't changing uniformly. Who and when the people feel the effects will impact this election, as will un-named events in Iraq, Afghanistan etc.
Posted by: Mark Olsen at June 28, 2004 10:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment