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Tuesday, June 29, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, June 29
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.94 (50.24)
Bush: 49.06 (49.76)
Status: Too close to call
Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274 (284)
Kerry: 264 (254)
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry
While I am projecting a razor thin race, this projection actually includes several polls that are not very close. The Fox trial heat and job approval show comfortable Bush leads, as does the Annenberg job approval. On the other hand, the ABC trial heat, CBS job approval and not unfavorables, along with the Gallup not unfavorbles show comfortable Kerry leads.
One of the problems with averaging polls is that it assumes that the truth is in the middle of divergent polls. However, this is not always the case. In 2000, the outlying polls showed either Gore with a very small lead, or Bush with a fairly comfortable lead. The truth was not to be found in the middle, but in the pro-Gore outliers. Where does the truth rest right now? It is hard to know for certain, but I will continue to try and figure it out.
Posted at 01:55 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
The polls got it completely wrong on Canada's election this Monday. Most were predicting a photo-finish and a conservative victory (One newspaper headline predicted conservatives having 9 more seats than the liberals) but in the end the Liberals won with 40+ more seats than the conservatives.
As this was considered a "lesser of two evils" election, my uninformed guess is that people lied to pollsters because they wanted to give the liberals a scare - hopefully that's also what explains Nader support in polls. However, that's my uninformed guess, I really don't know much about polls.
Posted by: Heckraiser at June 29, 2004 11:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment