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Thursday, June 24, 2004
Kerry Lead Widens in Latest Joisy Q-Poll
Posted by DavidNYCQuinnipiac sent some of us into conniptions with their prior New Jersey poll, which showed a narrow race. Things are looking better now (May in parens):
Kerry: 49 (47)
Bush: 41 (44)
Undecided: 6 (6)Kerry: 46 (46)
Bush: 40 (43)
Nader: 7 (5)
Undecided: 7 (6)
(MoE: ��2.9%)
Kerry's lead looks pretty strong here, considering the very low MoE. (The sample size was an impressive 1,167.) Furthermore, Bush's job approval rating stands at an abysmal 42-54. Without fail, every single poll since March 2003 (ie, the start of the Iraq war), the approval number has gone down and the disapproval has gone up. I just don't see how you can win a state when people hate you this much. Indeed, Quinnipiac says that this is an "all-time low" for Bush here.
Also, the general approval numbers for Bush don't look very good either: They stand at 35-40, with 23% saying they have a "mixed" view. Bush's favorables have dropped 2 points since May. Kerry, meanwhile, has improved to 30-28-28, from 27-28-33. Bush simply doesn't have enough money to drive Kerry's negatives up in New Jersey - in fact, he's failed at that task miserably.
NJ might wind up being a bit like the New York Mets. On the rare occasions that the Mets put together a good team, they nonetheless always make you sweat. New Jersey will be closer than neighboring New York this year, just as it was in 2000. But, as I've continually said in the past, it's still ours.
UPDATE: Billmon spends a good deal of time ripping apart a maddeningly biased AP piece on this particular poll - a bias which he says is par for the course for much of the reporting on this race. I agree.
Posted at 05:54 AM in Safe States | Technorati
Comments
Jersey is in Kerry's bag. Yeah, the polls have been fluctuating, but all show Kerry in the lead, and that's without undecideds. Kerry will win NJ by at least 10%, perhaps 15%+.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 24, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yea! Now I can definitely expend all my GOTV efforts in PA.
Though as a Jerseyan I must say, I have never heard anyone from New Jersey say Joisey. And as a Mets fan.... OK, as a Mets fan I got nothing because what you said is dead on. :)
Posted by: Jessica at June 24, 2004 04:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You missed the big news from NM. Kerry is over 50% and Nader is at 1% in the latest Zogby. That's a big swing.
Posted by: Ralph at June 24, 2004 06:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"I just don't see how you can win a state when people hate you this much"
I agree. Bush's approval rating hit a all-time low in NH I believe(in a UNH poll). And his approval rating is dropping in other swing states. Andrew Kohut wrote a good article about this. Basically, he says, if Kerry can perform well down the stretch(at the convention and in the debates), attention will shift to him and he will win. Anyway, most elections involving incumbents are usually close this far from the election.
Posted by: Tim at June 24, 2004 07:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ralph, Is it one of John Zogby's internet polls or the real thing???
Posted by: steve at June 24, 2004 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It's a real Zogby poll, although I don't necessarily discredit the internet poll. If you keep sampling until your reach demographic parity, there's no reason to suspect the poll--in fact, less reason in some cases.
Check it out at Joe Monahan's most excellent page, which you should probably list in your swing state blogs:
Posted by: Ralph at June 24, 2004 08:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I didn't exactly miss it - I've just finally started my summer job, hence I'm a little bit busier. But I don't think it's a "real" Zogby poll - I believe it's part of his "interactive" Internet poll. I'll post some more about it when I get the chance. And thanks for the heads up!
Joisy, btw, is how someone from Brooklyn says "Jersey." ;)
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 24, 2004 08:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh, and Ralph: Is Joe Monahan's blog written from a left/Dem perspective?
Posted by: DavidNYC at June 24, 2004 08:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Joe is a centrist Democrat--think lobbyist/insider. You won't feel dirty going there.
Posted by: Ralph at June 25, 2004 10:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ralph. If its the "real deal" (no pun intended) then great, but I think Zogby's internet poll is skewed.
Posted by: steve at June 25, 2004 02:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment