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Monday, June 07, 2004
Latest in the Long Line of SSP Clones: Slate
Posted by DavidNYCLike the Economist and the American Prospect, Slate has launched a series analyzing the swing states. Now that it's summer, these Johnny-come-latelies are finally interested in swing states. Well, welcome aboard, fellas!
Check out the map: They're saying that CO, LA and VA aren't swing, but that NJ and TN are. NJ? Okay, if you say so. Anyhow, Slate's first stop is Missouri. Chris Suellentrop quotes a former Gephardt pollster who says that Kerry has no chance at winning MO - or if he does, it'll only be in a landslide. Then Suellentrop tries to back this up by spending a whole bunch of time arguing that city slicker-types fare poorly statewide in MO.
Fine, this may be a valid point. But the fact is, the last Rasmussen poll was a dead heat, 44-43 Bush. You really can't just ignore polling data - or if you are going to, you have to say why. Suellentrop's piece provides some good color on what politicking in MO is like, and I appreciate the fact that he (unlike me) can do some actualy, on-the-ground reporting. But in the face of polls showing a close race, I don't find his analysis convincing.
(Thanks to Alan.)
Posted at 01:21 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
The article is way too pessimistic about Kerry's chances. It is true that Gephardt on the ticket probably wouldn't be much help in outstate follows the nation rather than being a bellweather.
However, I think a lot of conservative Democrats who voted for Bush in 2000 will come back in the fold this year with economic issues trumping social ones.
Missouri, and I also agree sadly that Missouri
Kerry may be a MAssachusetts liberal, but he is also a Veteran and has a statesmen like quality that old FDR and Truman Democrats might actually like.
If the Iowa Caucuses are any indication, rural Midwestern Democrats trust John Kerry and John Edwards even if they differ with them on issues like gun control and abortion.
Kerry/Edwards or Kerry/Clark is the ticket here. Gephardt might appeal to the Democratic party base, but independents and disgruntled Democrats will prefer Edwards populism or Clark's military credentials to Gephardt's career-politician status, whether fairly or unfairly.
Bush is less popular in many rural areas than most people realize--I believe Missouri is in play as the Rasmussen poll suggests.
Posted by: Keith Brekhus at June 7, 2004 01:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New Jersey isn't a swing state. Jersey hasn't been a swing state since 1992. The polls show Kerry with a modest lead in Jersey and there's no indication that NJ is heading back in the other direction. If anything the polling is indicating that VA is now in swingstate territory. We'll have to see if that poll was just a fluke.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 7, 2004 03:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't think Maine is a swing state either. Kerry seems to have a double digit lead there.
He should even be able to safely avoid the unusual problem of losing a Congressional District in Maine and only getting 3 of 4 Electoral votes.
Posted by: Keith Brekhus at June 7, 2004 03:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry is kicking ass in Maine. Is it really any surprise though? He is from a neighboring state. Regional identification is very important in politics. Kerry might win ME by 20 points. It certainly an indication of his overall strength.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 7, 2004 04:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As a Missourian, I actually think the commentary was pretty accurate on its two main points.
1. Missouri isn't a bellweather it is a weather vane is dead on. My wife ever since we moved here has been saying "I'm so sick of people calling this a bellweather state because all Missouri swing voters do is stick their finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing and then jump on the bandwagon to back a winner"
This was also obvious in the Democratic primaries this year, where every Kerry voter I talked to said "well I liked candidate Y, but I voted for Kerry because he was going to win anyway."
2. Missouri isn't quite the #1 key to winning that it used to be, because other states (Iowa, New Mexico, Florida for instance) are more so as Missouri goes slightly more Republican. Again dead on. The way I look at it, if Bush wins Missouri its anybody's game. If Kerry wins Missouri say hello to President Kerry. And it could well be that Kerry wins Missouri and if he does it may well be because Missourians already know that the wind is blowing that way.
So I pretty much agree with the editorial. I'll do my part to see that Kerry carries the state. And if he does he will carry the nation. It's hard for me to see any scenario where Kerry wins Missouri and doesn't win the electoral vote.
Posted by: Wayne in Missouri at June 7, 2004 09:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
does anyone know what happened in OH ? did bush ads hurt Kerry there? I can't explain for the bump Bush received from 4-5 points down to 4-5points up essentially a 10 point turn around within couple weeks.
Posted by: ben at June 8, 2004 01:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just to note that Zogby's June 7th battleground numbers are out at http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html, and the results aren't all that great. They confirm Kerry's serious slippage in Ohio, and Bush also picks up Missouri and New Mexico (compared to the previous Zogby survey). Kerry picks up Iowa and West Virginia, which is good, but even in those state where he leads, his lead decreased in many of them.
Serious Kerry slippage, as I discuss here.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 8, 2004 05:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The numbers don't look all that bad in the Zogby survey. States are just starting to fall into traditional polling paterns. AR and TN are starting to look solidly Bush. IA and WV are swinging towards the Dems, as we'd expect them to do (a good sign). The Kerry lead looks solid in MN, WA, PA and WI. How about Kerry ahead in FL, that's a good thing! Even the Bush leads in MO, OH, and NM are very slim, well within the margin of error. It just comes down to the fact that OH is a toss-up in every sense of the word. Don't forget OH is a rather Republican state to begin with, so Kerry has an uphill battle to win there. Perhaps Bush's recent strength is due to the improving economy?
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 8, 2004 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Also, Kerry is still ahead in NV and NH, two small but key states. All in all, this map if it were to hold up until the November election, would be a winner for Kerry. So, don't despair. There will be a lot of ups and downs until election day. As a challenger, Kerry is sitting in a pretty good spot right now though.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 8, 2004 08:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
All in all, this map if it were to hold up until the November election, would be a winner for Kerry. So, don't despair. There will be a lot of ups and downs until election day. As a challenger, Kerry is sitting in a pretty good spot right now though.
Agreed, but it is still slightly unnerving to see downs where we once were seeing ups.
As for Ohio, I have my doubts about an improving economy being the cause of Bush's improvement there, as I don't think it's gotten better enough to make much of a difference at the individual level.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 8, 2004 09:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
something must have happened in OH . Is it possible that Rove is pulling his old tricks again? Push poll again ala tactics against McCain in SC? hopefully, Kerry put some people on the ground in OH.
It is also not good that NM is leaning toward Bush because if Richardson can't reverse the trend Kerry could be in trouble come Nov. Kerry must hold all Gore states then hope to pick off 2 small red states so he can't afford to lose NM and OR.
Posted by: ben at June 8, 2004 12:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
something must have happened in OH . Is it possible that Rove is pulling his old tricks again? Push poll again ala tactics against McCain in SC? hopefully, Kerry put some people on the ground in OH.
It's quite possible that Bush's Amway-style organizing in Ohio (as detailed by Matt Bai in a NYT Magazine article in April) may be paying some dividends already, and that Kerry's ground game isn't countering it effectively because it's not as developed yet.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 8, 2004 12:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohio is a Republican state. A Democrat has an uphill battle to win Ohio. Clinton probably only won it because Perot was in the race. Kerry will have to put the hard court press on to win Ohio, with ads, campaigning and a ground operation. So far, it looks like he hasn't committed much to Ohio. Kerry was probably ahead in OH because Bush was hurt by the iraq prison scandal. Perhaps OH is just returning to it's original disposition, which is Republican.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 8, 2004 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Perhaps OH is just returning to it's original disposition, which is Republican.
Maybe, but then how to explain that Rasmussen had kerry ahead of Bush by 4 points in the middle of March, and a poll by the University of Cincinatti had him ahead by 2 a week later.
Granted, the leads were no statistically significant, but still, they *were* leads.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 8, 2004 02:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The LA Times has a national poll which includes separate results for three states: Ohio, Missouri and Wisconsin. (Click on the link near the top of the column on the right which says "Matchup nationwide and in three states" for state results.)
The good news is that nationally, they have Kerry up 51 to 44 head-to-head against Bush, and up 48-42-4 with Nader included (1230 RV, moe 3).
Also (and apropos of this coversation) they have Kerry up in Ohio 45-42-4 (722 RV, moe 4), which may indicate that the GOPward drift there has abated.
In Missouri, Kerry is down, 37-48-5 (566 RV, moe4), which is not unexpected, since only the Zogby Battleground results of 5/24 had Kerry ahead (although the margin of 9 points is pretty high).
The disconcerting news is that they show Kerry behind in Wisconsin, 42-44-4 (684 RV, moe 4).
I've moved Missouri into Bush's column in my running prediction, and I'll be closely watching Wisconsin.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 10, 2004 12:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment