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Wednesday, June 02, 2004
The State of the States
Posted by Chris BowersThere hasn���t been much in the way of new national polling over the past week, leaving the General Election Cattle Call without much new to report. So, I���ll go ahead and give updates on how I currently project the campaign in all twenty-seven states that analysts even remotely consider "swing" (I���m the analyst who feels that way about Georgia):
Illinois: Kerry +17.4
Delaware: Kerry +17.2
California: Kerry +13.0
New Jersey: Kerry +11.2
Maine: Kerry +9.2
Washington: Kerry +8.4
Minnesota: Kerry +8.0
Pennsylvania: Kerry +7.8
Wisconsin: Kerry +6.4
New Hampshire: Kerry +6.2
Michigan: Kerry +5.8
New Mexico: Kerry +4.6
Oregon: Kerry +4.4
Iowa: Kerry +2.6
Ohio: Kerry +2.6
Florida: Kerry +2.2
Nevada: Kerry +2.2
Missouri: Kerry +2.0
Tennessee: Bush +1.2
West Virginia: Bush +2.3
Arizona: Bush +2.6
Arkansas: Bush +3.1
Virginia: Bush + 3.9
Colorado: Bush +4.3
North Carolina: Bush +6.2
Georgia: Bush +7.6
Louisiana: Bush +13.6
Not bad for June. Not bad at all.
My methodology behind these posts is explained here.
[Addendum: Looks like Swami Chris has 5 states changing hands: NH, OH, FL, NV, MO. By my count, those states total 67 EVs, giving Kerry a 327 to 211 win. - David]
Posted at 09:05 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
Addendum: Looks like Swami Chris has 5 states changing hands: NH, OH, FL, NV, MO. By my count, those states total 67 EVs, giving Kerry a 327 to 211 win. - David
327/211 is, I think, about the outside edge of range what is feasible for Kerry.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 2, 2004 11:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just noticed that Rasmussen's latest Ohio poll confirms Mason-Dixon's: Bush 46-Kerry 44 moe 4. As a result, I've removed Ohio from Kerry (update at bottom of entry) and put it back to be unassigned, to join FL, IA, MO and MN. That drops Kerry under 270, to 252 in my accounting.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 3, 2004 12:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Ohio is certainly close, and the Rasmussen poll moves it closer to Bush for me as well,. However, what is currently holding it back for going Bush in my methodology is the May 10-12 ARG poll. Specificly, Bush had 52% unfavorables in that poll, while Kerry only had 35%. 52% unfavorables! If that is accurate, Kerry will win the state comfotably.
Still, I imagine that Bush could take back Ohio in my methodology within the next week.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at June 3, 2004 01:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It certainly looks good at this juncture for Kerry. I can see why he's spending money in VA, it's certainly within the rhelm of a swing state with Virginia: Bush + 3.9. Kerry will have his ups and downs, he'll get a surge from the 2004 Democratic convention, and he'll get hit by the 2004 Republican convention around early September. But, if he's still at this level after those ups and downs, he'll be in a good position to win in November.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 3, 2004 10:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Its starting to look like Rasmussen v. Zogby (or Zogby v. their internet polling protocol), as two more Rasmussen results fail to corroborate the Zogby interactive battleground results. In Oregon, which Zogby had as Kerry +5.4 (outside the margin), Rasmussen has Bush up by a point, a statistical dead heat (moe 5), and in Missouri, again, Rasmussen shows a statistical tie (Bush by 1 point, moe 5) where Zogby showewd kerry +3.3, an inside lead.
These aren't sufficient for me to do anything about changing the status of these states (Oregon DEM and Missouri IN PLAY), but it's disturbing that non-internet based polling has yet to confirm Zogby's results, which makes me less likely to put much stock in them when they're updated early next week.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 3, 2004 05:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rasmussen is generally considered a conservative polling outfit. They seem fair enough though. Zogbby's polls were withing Rasmussen's MOE, so I think both can be taken seriously. That's why you have to take a bunch of polls and get a sample of what people are thinking, before drawing conclusions. So far, it looks like this race is setting up pretty much as expected. Kerry has huge leads in traditional Democratic states, while the same goes for Bush in conservative areas. A GA poll came out today and confirmed that GA is solidly in the Bush column. Who Kerry picks as VP might decide this election.
Posted by: Rock_nj at June 3, 2004 06:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That's why you have to take a bunch of polls and get a sample of what people are thinking, before drawing conclusions.
That's pretty much what I'm doing. I don't have an objective methodology such as Chris uses, but I do base my subjective assignments on all the polling data available for each of the 21 states I'm tracking, as well as Chris' results and the opinions of other analysts. What weight I give to each piece of data is what makes it subjective (and therefore potentially skewed by wishful thinking, prejudices and preconceptions about how states are likely to end up), but it's nevertheless based on the *all* the data available to me.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at June 3, 2004 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment