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Tuesday, July 06, 2004
Does Edwards as VP Make NC a Swing State?
Posted by DavidNYCDoes John Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate make us more competitive in the Carolinas? It's a good question. At the very least, it makes the Bushies sweat a lot more in that region of the country.*
A Mason-Dixon poll in May (from Polling Report - no link available) showed Bush with a 48-41 lead in NC. But when people were asked to choose between Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards, that lead shrunk all the way to 46-45. And a Research 2000 poll in June showed Edwards with a pretty solid 55-37 favorability rating. Plus, in that poll, 55% of respondents said Kerry should tap Edwards, compared to just 37 against. (But there was no paired matchup in that poll.)
Previously, I've called New Jersey a Jack Daniel's state. North Carolina is the exact opposite: A Dom Perignon state - if you see this state go blue on election night, break out the bubbly and start celebrating. I'm certain there will be a lot more polling in North Carolina very soon.
*(South Carolina, though much more conservative than NC, has also suffered a lot of job losses - and don't forget that Johnny Sunshine won the SC primary pretty convincingly. I know primary politics are a horse of a different color, but it suggests to me that Edwards has strong institutional and popular support there. Again, not that I think we'll win here, but if the Bushies have to even think about SC, then they're running scared. The most recent poll, taken for Republican Senate candidate Jim DeMint, showed Bush with a 15-point lead here, but a slightly earlier poll by Rasmussen put Bush just 10 points ahead - a far smaller margin than in many other Deep South states.)
P.S. For what it's worth, I'm pretty happy with this pick. As you probably know, Bill Richardson had long been my top choice, but John Edwards was probably my second-favorite.
Posted at 08:57 AM in North Carolina | Technorati
Comments
NC is a swing state now. It's time for Kerry to start running ads there.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 6, 2004 09:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Edwards is a great choice. He helps a little in many states simultaneously. He is a great campaigner and will take it to the enemy.
Posted by: Alan Snipes at July 6, 2004 12:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It should be treated as a swing state as long as it is shown to be one. Obviously they should watch internal polls to make sure their resources are being used effectively but NC would seem to be at least close. It is important to at least keep it close there because the media spin around a Kerry/Edwards ticket getting crushed in NC could be damaging.
Posted by: seamus at July 6, 2004 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Look, the bottom line is now the Bush/Halliburton team is going to have to go to NC at least----I'd say 3 maybe 4 times now. This will tie up resources, etc...
Kerry could not have done better.
Posted by: steve at July 6, 2004 03:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There was a recent statewide poll in late June by the Raleigh newspaper (The News and Observer) and some local news channels which put Bush-47 , Kerry 42.
Posted by: David at July 6, 2004 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
He's got to pull in the coast and mid-state urban, but you never know. The Mounatins are heavy Bush
Posted by: steve at July 6, 2004 07:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A poll on May 18th of North Carolina voters put Bush-Cheney 46, Kerry-Edwards 45, Nader 2, Undecided 7. Margin of error +- 4 points.
In conclusion, North Carolina is anyone's state. Considering the fact that Nader may not be on the ballot in November in NC (I heard this somewhere) Kerry-Edwards CAN win North Carolina.
Source (Kerry-Edwards poll is at bottom of page): http://www.wral.com/news/3319278/detail.html
Posted by: David at July 7, 2004 10:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If Kerry is poised to win NC, Bush is toast! Great call picking Edwards.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 7, 2004 10:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Amazing what severe job losses can do isn't it? The collapse of the textile industry in NC and SC appears to have triggered a realignment... from what I've been hearing there's a hellofalot of anger in rural NC (which, let us not forget this, sent Edwards to the Senate in 1998) over the job losses. This appears to have added to earlier discontent about the growth of "sunbelt suburbs" around Charlotte et al...
Posted by: Al at July 8, 2004 12:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The way I see it, the only part of the state that will be nearly impossible for Kerry/Edwards is the Piedmont area. That's a stretch of counties along I-85 from Charlotte to Greensboro. Charlotte has been pretty immune to the job problems the rest of the state has experienced. Kerry shouldn't give up on it though. There are votes to be had in Charlotte. US Air hasn't done well and Charlotte's a hub for them. The insurance industry has been absolutely decimated in Charlotte. Banking (which is KING!!) has been hurt with tech and customer service jobs having been sent overseas. Points can be made here, if its played just right. Besides, Charlotte is softening ever so slightly with a huge influx of people moving from places like OH, NY & PA.
I've seen the family stops as of late, and that plays well here. They need to stay FAR away from several of the "quality of life" issues. That'll ruffle Carolinian feathers in heartbeat. A stop with the families in Charlotte would be wise. A church stop with the family would be good, but they ought to choose one of the smaller churchs. Stopping at one of the larger Baptist churches here is pretty much seen as a campaign stop and not supporting religion. Kerry/Edwards need to show they are religious. Stopping at a catholic mass while here would play decently.
I saw someone elses comment about the rural vote being upset with Bush. ABSOLUTELY TRUE! This is the part of the state that has been most effected by the job losses in the textile and furniture industries. NC had it's largest mass layoff EVER under Bush. These people are hurting. The rural voters in the eastern part of the state are also upset with Bush for not supporting the tobacco buyout. Edwards (unless he's a complete idiot) knows that supporting this issue gives him huge play in this part of the state. So much so, that I think they'll overlook a fair amount of the liberalism.
Posted by: JP - Charlotte at July 9, 2004 09:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush won Mecklenburg County by only 3% in 2000. (For those outside the state, Mecklenburg County is basically metro Charlotte minus a few especially distant suburbs.) For Kerry-Edwards to win in North Carolina, they will have to win in Charlotte outright, by a substantial margin.
The trouble lies in the rural areas. Western N.C. supported Bush in 2000 very strongly. Bush's margin in Transylvania County, at the far west edge of the state, was 28%. Even Buncombe County, the least conservative of the western N.C. counties, voted for Bush in 2000 by 8,000 votes (9%). County-by-county election results are available at http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/y2000elect/stateresults.htm .
Posted by: Blake in Charlotte at July 9, 2004 10:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment