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Monday, July 12, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 12
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote
Kerry: 52.21 (52.04)
Bush: 47.79 (47.96)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote
Kerry: 331 (311)
Bush: 207 (227)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH, NC and OH to Kerry
After spening a long time researching it, I finally decided to peg the partisan index of North Carolina at GOP +1.0, and the partisan index of Tennessee at GOP +8.6 for this election cycle. For Tennessee, I simply reverted back to the partisan index of 1988, the last time Gore was not on the ticket. For North Carolina, where it was pretty clear a shift was taking place even before Edwards, I also reverted back to 1988, and then shifted the state 7.5 to the DNC. The 7.5 figure comes from averaging the shift Gore and Lieberman brought to the ticket in TN in 1992 and CT in 2000 respectively.
All together, this pushes North Carolina to Kerry +2.4. Kerry can win North Carolina, even if the election is decided by less than two points. I can't wait for new numbers to come out of the state.
Posted at 01:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati