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Tuesday, July 13, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 13
Posted by Chris Bowers(Yesterday's Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.40 (52.21)
Bush: 47.60 (47.79)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (337)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (201)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, and OH to Kerry
States closer than three points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37), MO and OH for Kerry (31)
Kerry is looking strong, but there seems to be some sort of barrier preventing him from taking the lead by 5 or more points. It only happened once, and that was for less than one day. Ever since the race first moved to lean Kerry in mid-May, he has floated in the low 52's, excpet for the period following Gipperporn when Bush once again tied things up. Overall, from Bush's peak of 51.4 to Kerry's peak of 52.9, the total swing in the race has been by less than nine points. Perhaps I was wrong and maybe there won't be a blowout after all. I still hope that Kerry can break through to a seven point lead by next Friday, the last weekday before the convention, and then blow open a ten point lead after the convention. However, I am no longer counting on it.
Posted at 08:10 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Chris,
Where does West Virginia fit into the picture? Is it really that safe for Bush? I notice that it is not even in your within 3 points list. Is this based on recent polls or a separate analysis?
Posted by: TCM at July 13, 2004 09:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Regarding your comment on "Gipperporn"..
..I've been reading your blog for some time now, and enjoy it greatly.
But a comment like that has no place in serious political discourse. One reason I enjoy reading your blog is that it serves a real purpose and keeps a reasonable level of decorum.
You don't have to have loved the man, but every individual deserves the respect and dignity imbued by their humanity. Arch-conservative or not, it is important that you not forget Ronald Reagan was living flesh, a person, and not object.
Posted by: dan heskett at July 14, 2004 09:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry, I think, is doing just fine polling against a sitting president. Remember...Clinton was polling THIRD behind the first Bush and Perot until about 1/2 way through the '92 Dem convention.
Kerry will introduce himself to voters at that time and I think you'll be pleased with his "bounce."
Posted by: Wayne at July 14, 2004 12:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WV was polling for Bush at the beginning of the year. Then Kerry had a slight lead in WV over the past few months. Now, I'm hearing it's a dead heat and leaning towards Bush again. I think Kerry has a real shot at winning WV. It's a traditionally Democratic state, and Edwards can only help there.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 14, 2004 01:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WV is +5.4 Bush right now, bnased mostly on a strong GOP partisan index in the state as well as the recent Zogby poll.
As for "Gipperporn," I am making fun of the coverage of his passing, not the man. The mass media will consistently remain an object of my snark and ridicule.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 14, 2004 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree the polling numbers are looking a littl better for Kerry than you would think considering we are in a war.
Here is what I think we should do though:
Let us poll the military of America. They are the people who are fighting the war.
Then that should influence who we truly vote for. They know the truth we only know what CNN or Foxnews tells us.
Military will go heavily in favor of Bush. How do I know this? I am in the Air Force, and I would say it is about 80% for Bush at this time.
We should take that into account and probably begin leaning towards Bush. Support the military.
Posted by: Jake at July 14, 2004 09:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment