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Wednesday, July 14, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 14
Posted by Chris BowersPrevious Numbers in Parenthesis
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.69 (52.21)
Bush: 47.31 (47.79)
Statues: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (same)
States Chaning Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH to Kerry
Current Projected Standings in all Swing States
Arizona: Bush +1.4
Arkansas: Bush +1.4
Colorado: Bush +3.5
Florida: Kerry +5.0
Georgia: Bush +6.8
Iowa: Kerry +3.4
Louisiana: Bush +2.8
Maine: Kerry +10.0
Michigan: Kerry +8.1
Minnesota: Kerry +6.4
Missouri: Kerry +1.2
Nevada: Bush +0.4
New Hampshire: Kerry +6.8
New Mexico: Kerry +6.2
North Carolina: Bush +0.9
Ohio: Kerry +1.1
Oregon: Kerry +7.5
Pennsylvania: Kerry +8.3
Tennessee: Bush +1.6
Virginia: Bush +4.2
Washington: Kerry +9.5
West Virginia: Bush +5.1
Wisconsin: Kerry +7.4
Bush's dam is creaking somethin' fierce right about now. Two more points and Kerry reaches 367. Georgia is closer than Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Posted at 11:04 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
TN is really that close?
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 14, 2004 11:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
LAst Zogby poll had it even closer--47.5 to 47.5 with NAder asked in the question.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 14, 2004 11:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm starting to feel like those Zogby "interactive" polls are only about a half-step more reliable than a diary poll on Daily Kos.
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 14, 2004 11:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
How dare you insult Dailykos diary polls like that.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 14, 2004 11:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I would like to think that you projections are correct, but don't. Where did you come up with these numbers? For example, WI +7.4, NC -0.9, Maine +10? I haven't seen any polls that would justify these projections. What other information do you have? It would be great if you projections are correct, but they seem like wishful thinking at this point.
Posted by: Randy at July 15, 2004 12:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with Randy. Those numbers seem too good to be true. (But I'm open to being proven wrong!)
Posted by: Mark at July 15, 2004 02:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Keep your eye on Georgia and the Senate race. We are voting in just a few days. The right candidate may turn out people who don't vote in droves....
Posted by: steve at July 15, 2004 06:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I like this site, but its too optimistic. I would advise everyone to compare the numbers here with www.realclearpolitics.com and with www.electionprojection.com. The good news is that both of those sites are run by republicans and they both have Kerry leading. However, their numbers on Ohio and other swing states are different.
Posted by: Steven M at July 15, 2004 03:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree, these numbers seem optomistic. Kerry +7 in WI, is that for real? I thought Bush was leading in WI. I like the +5 for Kerry in FL. I expect Kerry to win FL.
Posted by: Rock_nj at July 15, 2004 04:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Your numbwers in parenths are wrong for Bush.
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.69 (52.21)
Bush: 47.31 (52.79)
Statues: Lean Kerry
should be:
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.69 (52.21)
Bush: 47.31 (47.79)
Statues: Lean Kerry
Posted by: JasonK at July 16, 2004 02:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anyone know the status of the petition drive to put on the Colorado ballot a provision calling for Colorado to divide its electoral votes proportionally? It would apparently, if it passes, apply to this election, and would then guarantee a minimum of four electoral votes for Kerry.
Posted by: science at July 16, 2004 08:56 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anyone know the status of the petition drive to put on the Colorado ballot a provision calling for Colorado to divide its electoral votes proportionally? It would apparently, if it passes, apply to this election, and would then guarantee a minimum of four electoral votes for Kerry.
Posted by: science at July 16, 2004 08:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Look at the Survey USA poll of South Carolina July 10-12:
Bush 51% Kerry 44% Other 3%
Looks like we've got another Southern state on the Swing list.
Thanks, John E.!
Posted by: jogabr at July 16, 2004 11:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Jogabr, I, Steve, hardest of the hard core Kerryites, and person who campaigned in the SC primary for him in the cold wind putting out signs for 40 miles, will eat my hat if we win SC.
Believe me, pal, I love the vibes you are laying down, but that aint gonna happen!
Posted by: steve at July 17, 2004 09:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Steve,
7% is 7%. The Survey USA poll is not all that off track. Rasmussen had a 10% spread in May. Is there a "sibling" bond between the Carolinas? Would John E. be almost as much a favorite-son in Charleston as he is in Charlotte?
Let's see what other SC polls say in the next few weeks. If the Survey USA poll is the trend and not an anomaly, then SC should be on the "swing" list. It's only reasonable that if states like Maine and Washington with a 9% or 10% spread are considered "swings" then why not SC if the 7% holds?
As for myself, I'm a very luke-warm Kerryite, a true fence-sitting centrist who would probably vote for McCain if he were running, but I'm also a passionate hater of the evil Bush-Cheney cabal and can't wait until South Carolina and most of the USA kicks those two out the White House door.
They and their evil Enron/Duke/Reliant buddies stole about $20 billion from my beloved state of California with their fake power shortages; let's get a special prosecution to find out what Cheney is so adamantly hiding. Our evil co-presidents are bankrupting our children's and grandchildren's future so that the Paris Hiltons of the world can live as tax-free parasites while the rest of us working-stiffs shell out a third of our income to pay the bill. They have destroyed American credibility, weakened our international clout, decimated the trans-Atlantic security alliance, and inspired terrorists around the world who now see the US as the true "Evil Empire." Those two "evil ones" have turned the most admired, respected nation on the planet into the most hated.
Sorry about the rant, I had to get it out.
Thanks for your tireless efforts in the Palmetto State, I predict they will pay off in November. I hear cotton hats are the most tasty.
Posted by: jogabr at July 18, 2004 01:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You just write my e-mail address down and hold me to my word, except for all my insurance policies- this is one bet i hope I lose!
BTW, McCain was the only GOP Presidential candidate I ever supported, but he was gone by the time my primary (at the time) came up.
Posted by: steve at July 18, 2004 12:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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