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Wednesday, July 21, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 21
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.87 (52.45)
Bush: 47.13 (47.55)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 232 solid (322, 228)
Bush: 216, 118 solid (216, 143)
States Chainging Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected Under 3 points: AR, LA, NV, NC and TN for Bush (46), MO and OH for Kerry (37)
Bush's solid states are as low as I believe they can honestly reach: 118. Kerry's safe states are as close to as high as I can imagine them reaching (291--only FL, IA, MN, NM and WI could further become solid). Less than a week before the convention, Kerry is looking very good ineeed. This point equals his highest ever standing in the two-party vote, and he is within three points of 366 EV's, and 291 solid EV's.
Considering all of this, I wouldn't expect much of a convention bounce if I were you. Kerry is close to maxing out how far he can probably be ahead by. A four point bounce would be remarkable. Here is a simple formula I am using to determine Kerry's maximum bounce: 12 - Kerry's current trial heat lead- (undecideds * .5) = Kerry's maximum bounce. Check out a few recent trial heats to see what a small number that is.
Posted at 12:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Don't tease....
how on earth did you get that formula, in particular, the mysterious constant 12 and the coefficient 0.5?
Posted by: Nate at July 21, 2004 01:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Guess work.
The way I figure it, Bush cannot drop below 43% in this election, and third-party support will be around 2%. Thus, Kerry maxes out at 55%, or twelve points ahead of Bush. This includes a maximum of 12 points in trial heats, not just the election.
However, Kerry could only reach a 12-point lead in a trial heat with no undecideds. Thus, I seriously doubt taht any non-outlying poll will ever accurately show Kerry ahead by 12 points. Although I now think that 0.5 is not the right number to multiply the undecides by, (0.3 or 0.4 is probably better), something needs to be removed from the total in order to account for Kerry's current lead among undecideds.
So, basically, its guess work.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 21, 2004 01:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm a yellow-dog Dem., but I think this site is too optimistic. Headlines like, "Kerry Takes Lead in AZ" make me jump, but then when I find out it's a one point lead with a 3 point MOE with more than ten percent undecided, it doesn't sound so good. How about, "Kerry and Bush tied in AZ"? The electoral predictions seem too rosy as well. I think OH and MO are dicey at best. If I had to guess, I'd put them both in the Bush column. Florida's our best shot. If we win that, plus the Gore states, we're there.
Posted by: Ben at July 21, 2004 08:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What is a yellow dog Dem? I actually have no idea, but I have seen the term thrown around.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at July 22, 2004 12:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A yellow-dog Dem = someone who will always vote Dem, no matter what, even if they put a proverbial "yellow dog" on the ballot. In other words, the ultimate partisan.
Posted by: DavidNYC at July 22, 2004 01:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm from the "Show-Me" State of Missouri that someone will have to show me that Missouri is winnable for K/E. I have serious doubts unless the Democratic nominee for Governor clobbers Matt Blunt AND Nancy Farmer gets by Kit Bond for the Senate. Frankly, if both happen, it will be a national Democratic sweep and Missouri won't be important. Although we will have a hell of a national party to the wee hours.
Posted by: Toes at July 22, 2004 05:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment