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Friday, July 23, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 23
Posted by Chris Bowers(Yesterday's numbers in parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.27 (53.27)
Bush: 47.73 (46.73)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Projection
Kerry: 322, 227 solid (237, 232)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (211, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected By Less than 3 points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)
What a difference a day makes. From a borderline Kerry blowout to a race that is only slightly lean Kerry, this was the largest single day shift in the history of the GECC. NV switched back to Bush, Georgia became solid Bush, Florida slipped under the 3.0 line for Kerry, while AZ and LA moved past it for Bush. IF these were the numbers on election day, I would feel good, but nervous. If yesterday's numbers were the election day projection, I wouldn't feel nervous at all. This projection has a longshot scenario for Kerry to lose: if every single close state goes for Bush, than Bush would take it 274-264.
On the plus side, a shift like this does allow more room for a convention bounce. I'm going away for the weekend, but I should be able to offer another projeciton on Sunday night.
Posted at 12:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/7/23/133756/627
Polls have Bush ahead in both Ohio and Florida. :-( Campaign efforts really need to be stepped up in both states.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at July 23, 2004 02:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The polls in Florida (ARG & LA Times) are real, but the leads are well within the margin of error.
The one in Ohio is a partisan poll, done by a GOP polling shop, and therefore suspect, and there's a non-partisan poll (ARG) in an update to the dKos post which shows K47-B45-N3 moe4.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 23, 2004 06:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I felt really glad when I read the the ARG poll for Ohio, and that the other poll was done by a pro Republican organization. Let's cross our fingers for a boost in Florida.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at July 23, 2004 07:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't know where you get that Bush is ahead in Nevada. The NBC affiliate TV station in Las Vegas just announced their statewide poll today July 23 and showed Kerry 49 Bush 45 with 6% undecided. kerry seems to have Nevada well in hand here.
Posted by: Stan Vaughan at July 23, 2004 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The NBC affiliate TV station in Las Vegas just announced their statewide poll today July 23 and showed Kerry 49 Bush 45 with 6% undecided
If you're referring to KVBC channel 3, I can't find anything like that on their website, and get no hits about in on Google News.
Are you sure it was them?
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at July 24, 2004 06:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I believe the key to the election will involve just three states: Ohio, Florida and Missouri. If Kerry can win any one of those states, he will be our next president.
There are far too many variables between now and Election Day to take any of these polls all that seriously. I view the plethora of polls more as entertainment than a science at this stage-- kind of like the summer college football polls that almost never accurately predict the final outcome. Still, it's fun to check them out!
Posted by: Pepe at July 24, 2004 10:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
heres definitive numbers on Nevada, here in Reno, Kerry is only down a few. bush won washoe county in 2000 by 14 points. if kerry leads in nevada by 4 now, bush is toast nationwide.
kive weinstein
reno, nv
http://www.electoral-vote.com/.
Posted by: kive weinstein at July 25, 2004 08:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment