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Monday, July 26, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 25
Posted by Chris Bowers(Friday's numbers in parens)
National Two-Party Projection
Kerry: 51.95 (52.27)
Bush: 48.05 (47.73)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 227 solid
Bush: 211, 133 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and OH
States currently under three points: AR, NC and TN for Bush (32); FL, IA, MO, NV and OH for Kerry (70)
It's Convention Eve - how exciting! Bush has made significant progress in the two-party vote projection over the past few days, nearly cutting Kerry's lead in half. On the negative side, Bush is closer than I would like. On the plus side, this allows for a larger convention bounce.
How big will the bounce be? It might be larger than even I think. As the recent LA Times poll noted:
Among the 59% who said they know enough about Kerry to evaluate him, the Massachusetts senator leads Bush by 10 percentage points; among the 34% who said they don't know Kerry well, Bush leads by 12 percentage points.
Getting to know Kerry seems to be a pleasant experience for most of the country. The convention could push his lead to as high as ten points.
Posted at 12:10 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
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