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Thursday, July 29, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, July 29
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.18 (52.27)
Bush: 48.82 (47.73)
Status: Too Close to Call
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 302, 96 solid (327, 227)
Bush: 236, 133 solid (211, 133)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO and NH
States Projected Under Three Points: NV, OH, TN and WV for Bush (42); FL, IA, MO and NH for Kerry (49)
Bush made a significant comeback over the past week, closing the national vote gap from 6.54 to 2.36. The source of this comeback is his job approval ratings, which have generally stabilized at around 48-50 percent, and which now make up 10 of the 26 data points in the calculation. The election is now too close to call. I promise to post the way I now determine the dataset very soon, as it is slightly different from my old method. At some other point, possibly early October, I am going to have to start allowing likely voter trial heat models into the dataset when no registered voter models are available.
While TN and NH are listed among the eight closest states in this projection, I will be surprised if they end up being one of the handful of states that will determine the winner in a toss-up election. Instead, I would expect WI to come to the fore. However, I still do not expect a particularly close election. Instead, I expect Kerry to regain his lead soon, and for the lead to remain his. As the Cook Political Report noted about undecided voters:
Among all registered voters, 41 percent agreed with the statement that the country was headed in the right direction, while 56 percent thought it was off on the wrong track. But among undecided voters, only 18 percent said that the country was headed in the right direction, and 75 percent said it was on the wrong track.(...)
On Bush's job-approval rating, 49 percent of those surveyed approved of the president's overall performance, and another 49 percent disapproved. But among undecided voters, only 22 percent approved, and 69 percent disapproved
A tie is not always a tie, and it does not mean both candidates have an equal chance to win.
Posted at 01:43 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Your previous numbers were 51.95 to 48.05. The previous gap was 3.9, not 6.54. So the Bush gain is not as big.
Still, I don't like the trend you're showing us. I really hope the convention can reverse that trend.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at July 29, 2004 02:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The original statement was correct...just take a look further back in the posts.
On July 22, you will see:
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.27 (52.87)
Bush: 46.73 (47.13)
Status: Lean Kerry
Compared to today's numbers of 51.18 and 48.84,
simple math shows that Kerry's lead a week ago was 53.27-46.73=6.54.
But, nonetheless, I agree with your comment about not liking this trend. Keep in mind that these variations are inevitable, though, and it's the 2-month trend we're more concerned about.
Posted by: Amateurchef at July 29, 2004 05:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Do these numbers include any of the convention dates, or were they all taken before it? If its included, I'm not feeling so good right now.
Posted by: Josh at July 29, 2004 06:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm not optimistic that Kerry can win this election, for one simple reason: he has refused to use the incredible sums that he has been able to raise to launch attack ads against Bush. This has allowed Bush's approval rating to rise with the rising economy. Meanwhile, Bush has launched $100 million dollars of effective negative ads against Kerry, essentially knocking him down. It is not a surprise to me that Kerry has yet to get a lift from his selection of his very strong running mate. The Kerry campaign is risking defeat with its disasterous advertising strategy.
Posted by: Ben at July 29, 2004 07:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Geez Chris, freakin' Tennessee is in play and you think it's a tie!!
Given that it's 50 separate state elections the national numbers have little meaning. As I look at the state polls the only really close Blue State from 2000 is Minnesota while K-E are edging ahead in OH, FL and MO. Even NV and VA are in play.
We are winning but let's keep the pressure on.
BTW-I don't think NH as all that tight from what I can see Kerry is going to get over 50% here even with Nader in the race.
Posted by: AndyS at July 29, 2004 08:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
While its tempting to look at pro-Dem analysis if you want Kerry to win (as I do), I also like to look at analysis from neutal sources as well to really get a sense of where things are. Cook works very hard to be neutral and to provide in-depth analysis. Zogby is considered pro-Dem (and I take the "interactive" polls somewhat lightly due to self-selection) but Zogby is the only pollster from 2000 who even came close to the actual popular vote. All the others were mistaken in Bush's favor by 3-5%.
From what I've seen of various polls and analysis I'd conclude that several states that are considered "toss up" actually aren't: Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire and particularly Pennsylvania have all been trending strongly Kerry. Minnesota and Iowa supposedly are showing a softening of support for Kerry though I still think they'll end up in the Kerry column on election day. Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia, and Florida are the real toss up states, IMO. The surprising toss ups are Arizona, Tennessee, and Nevada. Kerry starting to outpoll Bush in Arizona and Tennessee in particular are a sign that things are not going well for Bush. If Kerry is able to start pulling away in polling, we might see Colorado, Arkansas, Louisiana and Virginia shake loose.
Posted by: Todd at July 29, 2004 08:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Missy at November 12, 2004 06:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment