Swing State Project

Saturday, July 31, 2004

Apartment Hunting

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm down in DC this weekend, hunting for apartments, hence the light posting. The search is going pretty abysmally - sigh. Anyone got any leads?

P.S. Newsweek has a new post-convention poll. It has Kerry up 52-44. The previous poll (from early July) had Kerry up 51-45. (MoE: ��4%.) So a "baby bounce," as the headline puts it. With Nader factored in, Kerry saw his lead jump from +3 to +7. Also, independents now support Kerry in this poll 45-39. And one other thing which I was glad to see: 57% of respondents said they think Kerry is the kind of person who "cares about someone like them," whereas only 44% said the same thing about Bush. So, media, can we put to rest this ridiculous idea that Bush is somehow a "regular guy" who people would rather have a beer with than Kerry? Because that's obviously not the case.

Posted at 06:37 PM in Site News | Comments (6) | Technorati

Friday, July 30, 2004

Kerry & Edwards Embark on Swing State Bus Tour

Posted by DavidNYC

Kerry & Edwards are hitting the ground running: Starting today, the Dems are going on a 21-state, 40-city bus tour that will last two weeks. Naturally, they're visiting all the major swing states, starting with Pennsylvania (hey, maybe he'll visit Ginny Schrader), West Virginia, Ohio and Michigan. I haven't been able to find an actual calendar on the (redesigned?) Kerry site, so if you find a link, please post it here. Bush, by the way, is also on a similar tour, but I have to believe the momentum is with Kerry right now. We are now acting, and the GOP is reacting.

One related note: The NYT's David Stout does something remarkably un-whorish in his article. Check this out:

Meanwhile, Mr. Bush ended his vacation at his ranch in Crawford, Tex., and wasted no time in contrasting his platform to that of the Democrats, telling a campaign rally in Missouri: "They're going to raise your taxes, and we're not."

Mr. Kerry said Thursday night that he would roll back the tax cuts Mr. Bush enacted, but only for those earning more than $200,000 a year. (Emphasis added.)

By juxtaposing these two points right next to one another, Stout is basically saying that Bush is wildly exaggerating. It's a lot more compelling than the usual reportorial he-said/she-said because Stout doesn't go to some "Kerry campaign spokesman" for a weak-kneed rebuttal. Rather, he essentially quotes a Kerry policy plank, which is much more powerful. I'm not about to declare renewed faith in the media, but the fact that Stout conveyed this information honestly to his readers - and didn't bury it in the 20th paragraph - speaks very well of him. I also think it means we're getting better at getting our message out, though of course, it's a little bit easier when you have a massive convention by which to do it.

Of course, it's also very possible that Bush was addressing a crowd made up entirely of elite fat cats - his "base" as he famously called `em - in which case his remarks would have been exactly right.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General | Comments (14) | Technorati

Adopting Ginny Schrader

Posted by DavidNYC

It's always great to see some bona fide original reporting in the blogosphere, which makes Chris's interview with Ginny Schrader posted below all the more interesting. Though she's been plugged across many blogs, including this one, I like Chris's suggestion that the SSP & MyDD officially "adopt" Schrader. So far, in fact, the SSP has already raised over $800 for Ginny on ActBlue. (And already it's the third most-successful list on ActBlue.)

So if Chris & Jerome over at MyDD are willing, let's make it official. (As long as Mr. Liberal doesn't mind.) I don't want to set any specific goals, but I think we can do well for her. As an aside, the combined daily traffic of our two blogs is close to 10,000 visitors a day, which would put us in the realm of the top twenty blogs. Whaddya say?

Posted at 09:57 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (3) | Technorati

Chris's Interview With Ginny Schrader

Posted by Chris Bowers

Photos Courtesy of Wendy Badman (photobywendy@hotmail.com).

On Tuesday, before the Kerry event in Philadelphia, I had the privilege of visiting Virginia Schrader in her home so that I could talk with her about her campaign. Although I forgot my tape recorder in her home after the interview, I went back and retrieved it on Wednesday. Several members of the DCCC were there, and Ginny informed me that for the next five weeks, with full-bore assistance from the DCCC, her campaign would be focused almost entirely on raising as much money as possible in order to put her in the strongest position possible. She also let me peek behind the curtain into their accounts to show me that the blogosphere had raised over $36,000 for her campaign. I would like to see our total rise to $50,000 as quickly as possible, so please donate today. Remember that early money is like yeast: it makes the dough rise.

Although it is not my decision to make alone, since DailyKos has already officially adopted eight congressional candidates, perhaps MyDD, combined with the Swing State Project, could fill the gap created by this incredible and unexpected opportunity and adopt Virginia Schrader for Congress in PA-08. Let me know what you think about this idea in the comments.

Schrader���s campaign also has a new and improved website that is adding new interactive content by the day, so be sure to check it out. Also, for those of you in the Philadelphia or Trenton areas, there is a Virginia Schrader Meetup that desperately needs members. Join today, and/or visit her website for more information on how to volunteer.

Typing up transcripts is very difficult.

Me: When did you first decide to run for Congress?

GS: November and December was the time period when I was trying to make the decision. I really thought this was a winnable race, even though it wasn���t going to be a profiled race, because it was an incumbent. The incumbent, Jim Greenwood, had originally been pretty much a moderate���in the terms that a Republican is a moderate���but in the last few years his voting record has been more and more and more in favor of the administration to the point where even though he is pro-choice, even though he is portrayed as a moderate, he is voting with the administration 88% of the time. So, we felt that if we could get that message out, then we could we could do something, do something big. This is an area that went very big for Clinton, went for Gore--

Me: Went for Rendell, over 60%--

GS: Went huge, huge for Rendell. So, they had added some Democratic areas in their gerrymandering into this district, so we felt those were mine. This was really a good opportunity. Anyway, those were all of the reasons why I decided to do it. I wanted to have a very serious campaign, I wanted to have a real race, really about the issues, about not having people roll over just because there is an incumbent, I think there is too much of a tendency to do that.

Me: Yes, absolutely. I agree.

GS: Other times, there are good candidates sometimes, and good candidates don���t have a snowball���s chance in hell because they are not being targeted, nobody is looking at them.

Me: When you say targeted, are you talking about the DCCC?

GS: I���m talking about any of the���there are more organizations than them who target people. I didn���t mean the Internet, because that is so brand new.

Me: Yes. Actually, on Dailykos, there is Lois Murphy in the sixth district�Ķ

GS: She is doing very well. Probably because started to notice her race even before mine.

Me: Why do you think that other people, other groups, didn���t feel that this was a district they should target?

GS: Because if you look at what has been written about Greenwood, that he was a moderate, even though he was a Republican he was a moderate Republican incumbent, the combination of those things made it feel that they wouldn���t have the energy. There was no push on other people���s part because they weren���t paying attention like we were here to the fact that he no longer was that moderate. It was a feeling that was left over. What we had to do was bring people to understand that he voted for the tax cut, voted for the war, voted for the energy bill, all of the things that the administration wanted. And he is pro-choice, since he is pro-choice, everything else is the 88% of the time that he votes for the administration.

Me: Exactly. When you say ���we��� are you talking about your campaign or Bucks county Democrats?

GS: A combination of both. After the 2000 election we really put on a push. There were so many of us who came into the party to revitalize it. Here, we able to incorporate people who had been here all along. You don���t want to toss out people who were working diligently the field, especially in this area. We were able to incorporate the people who had been here with the new people who had that energy and wanted to so more, and who wound up energizing everyone. That was really important.

Me: There was a contested primary though, right?

GS: It was a contested primary. However, it was a right-wing Republican who had run against Greenwood in the primaries over and over. What he thought he could do was hijack the Democratic primary unto himself. That didn���t work. We were running a serious campaign���thank God���so that he wasn���t able to do that. We were able to move out without much effort at all and win the primary. He was a well known, right-winger. People knew who he was from all those years of running.

Me: Closed primaries in Pennsylvania though, so as long as Democrats knew who he was they weren���t going to vote for him.

GS: The people who knew who he was���the Democrats who knew who he was were not going to get involved with him. He was pro-life, so he got a certain bit of the vote because of that. There are people who will vote that issue over everything else.

Me: What did you do before you decided to run for Congress?

GS: I went to law school when I was 39���before then I raised my family. I worked in government for a while. I got a Master���s degree in public administration while I was there.

Me: Where did you work in the government?

GS: I worked for the redevelopment authority in Philadelphia, when I came here. I am originally from South Boston.

Me: I am originally from Upstate New York myself.

GS: I came here in the very early seventies. When I was 39 I decided to go to law school. When I got out of law school I decided to go into insurance. I worked for AIG, which is one of the largest insurance companies in the world. To be a woman, and to be in that corporate environment, and to become a vice-president of one their subsidiaries, I learned a lot about higher-ups. This will all come in very handy in what I am doing now. I am used to those tough pressure kinds of situations.

Me: Are you on a leave of absence?

GS: No, I had to walk away. It was the only way to do this right, so I took early retirment.

Me: When did you decide to do that?

GS: As soon as I decided to do the race, there was no question that I was going to do that. The way my birthday fell, and the kind of retirement requirements they had, it had to be July 1st. It was just economic. I am not a rich person. I had to do the best I could with it. That did interfere with my early fundraising, since you can���t fundraise and work full-time.

Me: Now that there is no Greenwood, and now that you are campaigning full-time and the primaries are over, is this now seen as a race that groups such as the DCCC or MoveOn will target?

GS: Yep, they are already here, they have already moved in! There are two of them here now, and we are going downtown. I have been down to Washington and met with the Pennsylvania delegation���really good. The convention is this week, so you are not seeing as many people around. There was a really nice thing in the paper from T.J. Rooney, who is the head of the Democratic state party, about how supportive he is and as soon as this convention is over these guys are going to be right here working on the fundraising and helping us out. It was really exciting that guys were able to put almost $40,000 in the bank.

Me: I certainly hope that can become a lot more. Had you ever heard of the Blogosphere before?

GS: I know about it from Dean! We were working with Democracy for America and MoveOn and trying to get their attention. This is a real people, grassroots campaign. This wasn���t something being done by ���the big guys,��� it was being done by people in this district who thought we had a chance to do it. It was something that we wanted the Internet involved in���it was one of our hopes we could get them to care enough to jump in. Of course, having this happen just made it great.

Me: I imagine it is only a matter of time before Democracy for America gives you an endorsement.

GS: They were in their last stages of whether they were going to endorse us anyway. And so now, we have probably moved to the front of the line.

Me: Fabulous!

GS: Yep!

Me: When it comes to the future, now that you have all this support and you are running a big campaign, what do you plan on doing in Congress? What would be the most important issue for you, or the two or three most important issues?

GS: Oh, I know, it���s awful. This year, people ask you what are your issues, and you could right a book on your issues! The first thing you always have to worry about is international responsibility. I use those words because it encompasses more than just the war in Iraq, but also terrorism, our position in the world, and how we are viewed and respected by other countries. That is what we need to do. Honestly, I think John Kerry is going to do one hell of a job at it if he gets his chance.

Me: You opposed the war before it began, from what I understand on your website.

GS: It didn���t feel right���it just never felt right. It felt, almost like the President went on vacation, and he comes back and suddenly it was a great emergency. It���s like ���how come it wasn���t an emergency in the middle of your vacation?���

Me: Weren���t we on yellow or something? We weren���t on very high alert when supposedly we were in imminent danger.

GS: It just never felt right. And the weapons of mass destruction and all this stuff--which gee, what a surprise--none of it was true. To tell you the truth, I was surprised there was none. You know what I mean? I thought there would be something.

Andy (my ride/roommate/brother): They sold it so hard, that I thought maybe Iraq had some.

GS: I thought they were going to make a big deal out of something that was relatively minor. But to find that there was none! The trick is that had there been anything, they would have used it. The only thing that made it ���perfect��� was that there was none.

Me: But of course as we know now the intent to possibly want to make them someday is the same thing as having them, according to the administration. I would actually like to ask more about Iraq, when it comes to our troop situation. We are now calling up inactive reserves, and we are stretched pretty thin.

GS: Oh, it is devastating.

Me: Would you be in favor of an immediate scale-back, or even withdrawal of the troops?

GS: I think what has to happen is the world has to become actively involved in Iraq, and I think I new administration can do that. Once there is a new administration, as I say when I am talking to people, when you have people locked in a struggle--you know, they are negotiating, like I learned at my business--when they are negotiating and you got it so that it is personal and everyone���s got their heels dug in, you get nowhere, everyone���s locked. You take one of those away, so that it is a different person negotiating, suddenly that picture of it being impossible goes away. I think everyone wants to help, everyone knows that the situation isn���t good, what they are looking for is a way in dignity to be involved with us, and give dignity to the Iraqi people, and give dignity back to themselves. I think what is going to happen is we are going to have a multinational force that will be in there with us. We will not be with ourselves.

Me: This is actually one point where I disagree. It is hard for me to imagine that other countries are going to want to come in, even if Kerry is President, which I absolutely believe he will be.

GS: If it is a multinational���if it is seen as a world problem���if it is not just American problem. Whatever we did, it is done now. Whether it was right, whether it was wrong, it is done. We can���t walk away from there now and leave it a hotbed for every terrorist group that ever thought of us. There has to be some security for us and the Iraqi people, some safety so the kids can go to school and the hospitals can run. We just can���t walk away, but I don���t just mean the US. The world can���t just walk away. My feeling is that if we can get the entire world involved in it, we can stop the unilateralism of the administration. I think the world will want to come, I think they want to come. I think we will see less of the burning hatred that seems to be being mined there. The UN knows how to do this. We have gone into countries before, after World War Two, and built up countries and I think we can do it here.

Me: There have even been recent successes in Kosovo and East Timor.

GS: Exactly. It can be done, with all of the pain. We have to go now!

Me: You have to go? OK.

GS: I have about four or five other things���meeting with the Veterans, everybody giving me money.

Me: Well thank you for your time.

GS: Thank you!

Posted at 01:00 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Updated Swing State Map Available

Posted by DavidNYC

As promised, I updated the swing state map to show North Carolina as a battleground state. Yes, it violates my strict ��10% methodology a little bit, but I'm satisfied with Chris's research that shows that the VP selection can materially affect a state's vote. Also, NC was actually the second-least red of all the states outside the ��10% group (Georgia was the first state over that barrier). So it's not a huge stretch. (I also cleaned up the map to show all of Maine as a swing state, even if it is strongly leaning toward Kerry.) A color-blind reader suggest I use patterns rather than colors - I'll try to create a second, more color-blind friendly map if I get the chance.

Also, related to my question immediately below, Zogby already has a new national poll out, showing Kerry/Edwards ahead 48-43. Zogby's last pre-convention poll had Kerry ahead 48-46, so all this poll shows (so far) is that 3% moved from Bush into the undecided group. (I don't usually, if ever, mention national polls here, but it might be a few days before we see post-convention state polls.)

And lastly, speaking of maps, a number of people have recommended the LA Times' electoral vote tracker map. It's pretty & user-friendly, and it even plays a little song (is that supposed to be "Stars & Stripes Forever?") when one candidate reaches 270 EVs.

Posted at 12:14 AM in General, Maine, North Carolina, Site News | Comments (8) | Technorati

Thursday, July 29, 2004

Historical Convention Bounces

Posted by DavidNYC

The New York Times has a helpful graphic today showing convention bounces for all presidential candidates going back to 1964. Every single person but one saw a bounce - even Bob Dole did. (The lone exception was George McGovern in 1972, when an ugly rift opened up within the Democratic Party at the convention.) So the question isn't whether Kerry will see a bounce - the question is how big a bounce Kerry will see. Post your predictions in the comments below.

P.S. I really liked Kerry's speech tonight. I thought he delivered it very well & had a lot of good lines. I was moved.

Posted at 10:58 PM in General | Comments (4) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 29

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.18 (52.27)
Bush: 48.82 (47.73)
Status: Too Close to Call

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 302, 96 solid (327, 227)
Bush: 236, 133 solid (211, 133)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO and NH
States Projected Under Three Points: NV, OH, TN and WV for Bush (42); FL, IA, MO and NH for Kerry (49)

Bush made a significant comeback over the past week, closing the national vote gap from 6.54 to 2.36. The source of this comeback is his job approval ratings, which have generally stabilized at around 48-50 percent, and which now make up 10 of the 26 data points in the calculation. The election is now too close to call. I promise to post the way I now determine the dataset very soon, as it is slightly different from my old method. At some other point, possibly early October, I am going to have to start allowing likely voter trial heat models into the dataset when no registered voter models are available.

While TN and NH are listed among the eight closest states in this projection, I will be surprised if they end up being one of the handful of states that will determine the winner in a toss-up election. Instead, I would expect WI to come to the fore. However, I still do not expect a particularly close election. Instead, I expect Kerry to regain his lead soon, and for the lead to remain his. As the Cook Political Report noted about undecided voters:

Among all registered voters, 41 percent agreed with the statement that the country was headed in the right direction, while 56 percent thought it was off on the wrong track. But among undecided voters, only 18 percent said that the country was headed in the right direction, and 75 percent said it was on the wrong track.(...)

On Bush's job-approval rating, 49 percent of those surveyed approved of the president's overall performance, and another 49 percent disapproved. But among undecided voters, only 22 percent approved, and 69 percent disapproved

A tie is not always a tie, and it does not mean both candidates have an equal chance to win.

Posted at 01:43 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 28, 2004

Kerry Looking Very Strong in Oregon

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Cross posted from MyDD)

The last three non-partisan polls to come out of Oregon make the state look pretty safe for Kerry this election cycle:

Zogby, July 19-23, MoE 3.9
Kerry: 52.0
Bush: 42.8
Nader: 1.1

American Research Group, July 19-22, 600 LV, MoE 4
Kerry: 50
Bush: 42
Nader: 4

Unfavorables
Kerry: 35
Bush: 48

Research 2000, May 6-8 and 10, 603 LV, MoE 4
Unfavorables
Kerry: 32
Bush: 46

Numbers like these place Oregon on the outer edge of swing states, such as Colorado, Louisiana and Pennsylvania, that seemingly could only be swung in the event of a landslide one way or the other. The Kerry campaign spent a lot of time working on Oregon (at least in terms of advertising dollars) this spring, and it seems to have paid off. Come September and October, Kerry appears to have one fewer state to worry about.

Posted at 11:58 AM in Oregon | Comments (13) | Technorati

Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Apartment hunting is the next thing keeping me busy - I need to find a place to live in DC for the coming year. Feel free to talk about new polls, the convention & what you predict the "bounce" will be. One bit of not-exactly-surprising swing state trivia coming out of the convention: Delegations from battleground states have gotten the best seats. There are some pretty snazzy maps available here. Looks like AZ, WV and AR didn't make it on to the floor, but tiny SD did. Hmm.

And man do I wish Barack Obama hailed from a swing state!

Posted at 03:22 AM in General | Comments (13) | Technorati

Monday, July 26, 2004

Another Batch of Polls

Posted by DavidNYC

I've been quite busy the past few days. Many law schools have a wonderful process called "Early Interview Week," a hellish few days during which you interview with about 8,000 different law firms to get a job for summer 2005, and for many people, the rest of their lives. (Firms wind up giving almost every summer associate a full-time offer for after graduation.) It sucks to have to think about next summer while this one is still just in July, but there it is.

Anyhow, every students who participates in EIW bids on the firms they want to interview with. (Each firm only has so many interview slots available.) So my bid list is due in a couple of days, and assembling it has been occupying a lot of my time. Sussing out the differences between Dewey, Cheatem & Howe versus Oliver & Dunne is a little bit like trying to distinguish between Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld... and right here, in case any potential employers are reading, I'm gonna quit with the analogy. But if you have any thoughts about any of the big New York firms, let me know.

Oh, yes, there was an actual point to this thread. Kos has another battleground poll roundup. There may be some repeats, but it does include the new SUSA Nevada poll (PDF) which was mentioned in comments here that I hadn't yet posted:

Kerry: 49
Bush: 45
Other: 4
Undecided: 3
(MoE: ��3.5%)

SUSA's low undecideds have always made me a bit uncomfortable, yet despite their all-automated surveying, they apparently have a pretty good track record. All things being equal, Bush can afford to lose NV - in a way, it's sort of a neither-here-nor-there state. That is to say, if we take Nevada, it means we've held NM, but I don't think it says anything about AZ. In other words, NV is part of a very small group of states which could change hands without a single other state changing hands.

Posted at 02:42 AM in Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio | Comments (18) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 25

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Friday's numbers in parens)

National Two-Party Projection
Kerry: 51.95 (52.27)
Bush: 48.05 (47.73)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 227 solid
Bush: 211, 133 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and OH
States currently under three points: AR, NC and TN for Bush (32); FL, IA, MO, NV and OH for Kerry (70)

It's Convention Eve - how exciting! Bush has made significant progress in the two-party vote projection over the past few days, nearly cutting Kerry's lead in half. On the negative side, Bush is closer than I would like. On the plus side, this allows for a larger convention bounce.

How big will the bounce be? It might be larger than even I think. As the recent LA Times poll noted:

Among the 59% who said they know enough about Kerry to evaluate him, the Massachusetts senator leads Bush by 10 percentage points; among the 34% who said they don't know Kerry well, Bush leads by 12 percentage points.

Getting to know Kerry seems to be a pleasant experience for most of the country. The convention could push his lead to as high as ten points.

Posted at 12:10 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Sunday, July 25, 2004

ACLU Punch-Card Suit in OH Goes to Trial

Posted by DavidNYC

You probably remember that the CEO of the infamous Diebold, Inc. said last summer that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year." So it may or may not come as good news to you that the ACLU is currently suing the Ohio Secretary of State over the fact that many poorer (often heavily minority) communities are still using punch cards. Most electronic voting machines don't leave paper trails, but on the flip-side, punch cards have a higher error rate (see: chad - hanging, pregnant, dimpled, etc.). The ACLU is saying that this constitutes an equal-protection & Voting Righs Act violation, because more minority voters are likely to be disenfranchised.

On balance, I think if the ACLU prevails, it would be a good thing. ACLU research has shown that punch-card counties have had a ballot rejection rate six times higher than touch-screen counties. And in some minority neighborhoods around Akron, the rejection rate was up to 15%.

The ACLU actually filed this class-action suit (known as Stewart v. Blackwell) back in the fall of 2002, and the trial is finally set to start Monday. It's not clear to me how long it's expected to last, but given the obvious time constraints, I'd presume that some sort of conclusion will be reached soon. The fallout could be pretty immense, though - if punch-card systems are invalidated, I have no idea how Ohio would be able to comply with the ruling on such short notice.

While I was researching this case, I happened across a blog called "Equal Vote." It's run by an OSU Law prof. named Dan Tokaji who specializes in voting rights & voting technology. He's also co-counsel for the ACLU on this case, so if you're interested in following the developments, I'll bet that Prof. Tokaji will be covering it.

Posted at 08:54 PM in Ohio | Technorati

Friday, July 23, 2004

Too Many Polls to Count

Posted by DavidNYC

DemFromCT has done yeoman's work and rounded up more polls than you can shake a stick at. There are new surveys out for AZ, FL, MI, NH, OH, OR and PA. I'm going to highlight that last one, which was done by the LA Times (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 51
Bush: 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ��4%)

Twelve points in PA? Gadzooks. Even with Nader included, Kerry holds a 10-point lead. Bush's job approval is below the Mendoza line here, at 47-48. The lack of trendlines is a bit frustrating, though, and it might be a while before the distant LA Times polls Pennsylvania again.

Posted at 06:34 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (11) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 23

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's numbers in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.27 (53.27)
Bush: 47.73 (46.73)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 322, 227 solid (237, 232)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (211, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected By Less than 3 points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37); FL, MO and OH for Kerry (58)

What a difference a day makes. From a borderline Kerry blowout to a race that is only slightly lean Kerry, this was the largest single day shift in the history of the GECC. NV switched back to Bush, Georgia became solid Bush, Florida slipped under the 3.0 line for Kerry, while AZ and LA moved past it for Bush. IF these were the numbers on election day, I would feel good, but nervous. If yesterday's numbers were the election day projection, I wouldn't feel nervous at all. This projection has a longshot scenario for Kerry to lose: if every single close state goes for Bush, than Bush would take it 274-264.

On the plus side, a shift like this does allow more room for a convention bounce. I'm going away for the weekend, but I should be able to offer another projeciton on Sunday night.

Posted at 12:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Thursday, July 22, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 22

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.27 (52.87)
Bush: 46.73 (47.13)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 232 solid
Bush: 211, 118 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and OH
States Projected By Less Than Three Points: AR, CO, LA, NC, and TN for Bush (50); Mo and OH for Kerry (31)

Wow--look at Kerry's lead. Now that we are nearly on the eve of the Dem convention, Kerry has taken a 6.54 lead in the two-party vote, and he is less than three points from 377 electoral votes. His "safe" states almost double Bush right now. Right now, I project Georgia closer than Wisconsin.

I had always hoped that Kerry could take a seven point lead before the convention, and he just might be able to do it. If the convention is mostly about shoring up your base, then we might just enter a new era of stability in the campaign where Kerry stays about 50 in every poll for weeks, if not months, on end.

Posted at 01:51 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (14) | Technorati

Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

I've never put one of these up before, so I hope this inaugural open thread doesn't turn out to be a dud. I don't anticipate being able to post until late tonight, if at all. But since there's a spirited discussion going on in the already-crowded thread below, I wanted to open up some more room for comments.

Also, please feel free to post any new polls, swing state news, cool sites, math debates, etc. Just don't wreck the place while I'm gone!

Posted at 09:35 AM in General | Comments (23) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Electoral Vote Predictor

Posted by DavidNYC

Many, many sites have crystal balls telling them how the election will turn out. Of course, the General Election Cattle Call (track record: 0-for-0, perfect!) is the best of them all. But I've come across some other interesting methodologies as well. One of the simplest (and most visually appealing) is the Electoral Vote Predictor. The owner of that site uses the latest poll he (or she) can find for each state and plugs `em into an electoral map. Good spreadsheets and charts abound.

David Wissing does something similar, albeit without the fancy maps. The two sites come to slightly different conclusions as of this precise moment, but I think it's because Wissing doesn't use Zogby's "interactive" polls, while the EVP does. Apparently, using Zogby favors Kerry, because he has a bigger lead on EVP.

Do you know of any other good sites which attempt to predict the outcome of the election, particularly those which use a state-by-state approach? Let us know in the comments.

Posted at 03:19 PM in General | Comments (91) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 21

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.87 (52.45)
Bush: 47.13 (47.55)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 232 solid (322, 228)
Bush: 216, 118 solid (216, 143)
States Chainging Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected Under 3 points: AR, LA, NV, NC and TN for Bush (46), MO and OH for Kerry (37)

Bush's solid states are as low as I believe they can honestly reach: 118. Kerry's safe states are as close to as high as I can imagine them reaching (291--only FL, IA, MN, NM and WI could further become solid). Less than a week before the convention, Kerry is looking very good ineeed. This point equals his highest ever standing in the two-party vote, and he is within three points of 366 EV's, and 291 solid EV's.

Considering all of this, I wouldn't expect much of a convention bounce if I were you. Kerry is close to maxing out how far he can probably be ahead by. A four point bounce would be remarkable. Here is a simple formula I am using to determine Kerry's maximum bounce: 12 - Kerry's current trial heat lead- (undecideds * .5) = Kerry's maximum bounce. Check out a few recent trial heats to see what a small number that is.

Posted at 12:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

ASU Poll: Kerry Takes Lead in AZ

Posted by DavidNYC

Argh... I had just written a fairly long entry on a new poll from Arizona State University, only to have it gobbled up by the ghost in the machine. So here it is again, in short form (registered voters, no pure trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 41
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ��5%)

As the headline explains, this is the first poll since February which shows Kerry with a lead (albeit inside the MoE) in Arizona. A June poll which also included Nader showed Bush with a hefty 47-35 advantage, so this is some nice momentum for Kerry. This, plus the large number of undecideds, plus Bush's 47-45 job approval rating, are all good things.

I should warn, though, that some other recent polls (including those from SUSA and an outfit called the Behavioral Research Center) haven't been as sanguine - Bush has double-digit leads in both of those. Moreover, BRC claims that Kerry's recent immigration reform proposals haven't gone over well with AZ's independent and Latino voters. Apparently, we're also reducing our ad buy in the state, though it seems that the 527s are picking up the slack. (We aren't co-ordinating with you guys, we promise!)

Posted at 10:25 PM in Arizona | Comments (8) | Technorati

Monday, July 19, 2004

Help Ginny Schrader in PA-8

Posted by DavidNYC

As you probably know, my election-year mantra is "Make Them Sweat:" Contest every race, and fight hard in each one. We won't win them all, but we'll make life a hell of a lot tougher for the other side. Just check out what Richard Morrison has managed to do down in Texas: For the first time in ages, I'm told, Tom DeLay is actually nervous enough that he's opened up a campaign office. (And not one, but two!)

The best part about following this strategy is that every once in a while, you get supremely lucky. And that, folks, has happened today. The blogosphere (led by DKos) has been abuzz with the news that Rep. Jim Greenwood, a "moderate" Republican representing Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District (Philly suburbs), has decided to retire.

This is a district which went narrowly for both Gore and Rendell. In short, it's a race we can definitely win, now that it's been thrown wide open. And you already know how important a swing state PA is, and how crucial it is for us to drive up turnout in the heavily Democratic Philadelphia region.

Our candidate, Ginny Schrader, looks good on paper in all aspects but one: She's very low on funds. We can make a huge difference overnight if we chip in to help her out - and we can also scare off any Republicans who might consider entering this race now. Imagine the headlines tomorrow or the next day if the blogosphere rapid-response network can toss Ginny some serious coin. I've seldom suggested donating to a particular candidate, but the special nature of this situation makes it impossible to pass up.

I suggest donating via ActBlue, which makes it much easier to track where donations come from. (And don't worry, ActBlue gives 100% of all donations to the campaigns.) I've already made a contribution - I hope you can make one, too.

Let's go, Ginny!

P.S. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that as Bush's situation looks more dire, and the prospects for Democrats to retake the Presidency and Congress look better and better, more Republicans will start announcing their retirements. If you're in your 60s, say, and facing the possibility of returning to D.C. in the minority party, the warm embrace of your grandkids - and that cushy lobbying job in the private sector - start to look very tempting.

UPDATE: Kos just informed us that Ginny's campaign raised an astounding $14,000 online in just four hours tonight. This is going to be a big story.

Posted at 08:02 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 19

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.45 (52.82)
Bush: 47.55 (48.18)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 143 solid (216, 128)
States Changing Party Hands: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected clsoer than three points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37), MO and OH for Kerry (31)

Georgia moved back into Bush's solid category after a brief trip into the "lean Bush" bracket. It sure was nice while it lasted.

Right now, Bush and Kerry are fighting this election primarily in Ohio and Missouri, with Florida, Nevada, Oregon, New Hampshire and Michigan running close behind (see this article for more info). If Kerry can hold the Gore states and swing either MO or OH, he will be the next President of the united states. Fortunately, at least Missouri has a Democratic Governor. I am seriously starting to believe that Missouri will be ground sero if this election is as close as 2000. Anyone know about voting machines in Missouri?

Posted at 03:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (15) | Technorati

ARG: Kerry Up in FL & WI

Posted by DavidNYC

Florida (likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 49 (48)
Bush: 45 (46)
Undecided: 6 (unavail.)
(MoE: ��4%)

Bush's favorability: 44-46. Kerry: 51-44. I have to say, it looks like Bush has done a pretty good job driving up Kerry's unfaves here, given that down in Florida six months ago, he was probably just some little-known Senator. On the flip-side, if we pick up Florida, Bush would still lose even if he won Oregon and Wisconsin. (I can't imagine him winning PA if we win FL.)

Wisconsin (likely voters):

Kerry: 49
Bush: 44
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

ARG doesn't bother to archive their old poll results, so I'm unable to find directly comparable trendlines. With Nader included, Kerry leads 48-42, with Ralph at 4. In March, Kerry led 46-43-4. Bush led among independents in March, 43-42, but now Kerry has a 45-39 advantage. Bush's favorability is at 47-46 (54% unfavorable in March), while Kerry is at 51-43 (43-26 in March). And for kicks: St. Ralph has a 70% unfave rating.

It's a bit hard to keep up with what has now become a weekly flood of polls, especially when you go away for the weekend. Taegan Goddard has helpfully posted links to several new ones here. And also via Taegan, a bit of rather good news that adds further confirmation to some legit CW: A Republican polling outfit released a memo predicting that undecided voters will break for Kerry.

Posted at 02:04 AM in Florida, Wisconsin | Comments (6) | Technorati

Sunday, July 18, 2004

Research 2K NC Poll in Line with Mason-Dixon

Posted by DavidNYC

Hot on the heels of last week's Mason-Dixon North Carolina survey, Research 2000 has a new poll out of that state (June in parens):

Kerry: 44 (42)
Bush: 49 (47)
Undecided: 7 (11)
(MoE: ��4%)

In June, the poll only asked Bush v. Kerry. This time around, R2K included the VP names as well in their question, so the trendlines are not quite "pure." As you can see, the spread in both polls is five points. You can argue, as Del Ali, the president of R2K, does: that there is no visible "groundswell" as a result of Kerry tapping Edwards.

The problem here, though, is that if R2K had asked the same question in July as it did in June (ie, Kerry's name alone), the results might have been worse for the Dems. That means that Edwards might have forestalled any further sliding. Could the results really vary materially with different questions? I think it's certainly possible. At the very least, you have to consider the fact that R2K saw fit to change the wording of their question, so it must be meaningful to them.

I admit I may be grasping at straws here, but I do think this is slightly sloppy polling. The unalloyed good news is that 25% of respondents said that the addition of Edwards to the ticket makes them more likely to vote Dem, while only 13% said it makes them less likely. Furthermore, Edwards' favorability has been increasing in his home state: from 51-40 in January to 56-38 now. This bodes well in winning over the undecideds.

(Thanks to reader Chris.)

Posted at 10:27 PM in North Carolina | Comments (4) | Technorati

Saturday, July 17, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 17

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.82 (52.69)
Bush: 47.18 (47.31)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 228 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 143 solid (same)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH
States Projected closer than three points: AR, LA, NV, NC and TN for Bush (46); MO and OH for Kerry (31)

This is the second largest lead Kerry has ever held in the national popular vote projection. All along, I have hoped that the lead can stretch to seven before the convention. Considering what should be significant coverage all of next week, that looks entirely possible.

This is also the largest number of data points to ever be included in the GECC--28. Ever since Edwards entered the race, it has been Pollapalooza.

Posted at 03:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, July 15, 2004

Nuts to That Gallup Poll!

Posted by DavidNYC

No, I'm not cherry-picking the results I like - I'm tossing out the bad apples that obviously don't belong. Check out Mason-Dixon's newest for North Carolina:

Kerry: 45
Bush: 48
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

These are the guys who polled Bush over Kerry at 48-41 in May - but had a hypothetical ticket of Kerry/Edwards just one point back in the same poll. The polls may not be entirely comparable (which is why I'm not listing trendlines) because the May polls included Nader while the present poll, oddly enough, included Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik. (As Monty Python might say, Badnarik pulled just about no voted at all in this poll - not a sausage.) This poll, FYI, did include the names of both Pres and VP candidates for all tickets.

Sixty-four percent of those polled approved of Kerry's choice of Edwards, by the way. Bush's favorability rating stands at 50-36-14 (the last number being "neutral"), while Kerry is allegedly 38-36-26. Edwards gets the best spread in the state, at +15, far higher than Cheney, the least popular of all four men (unsurprisingly).

Gallup has some `splainin' to do.

Posted at 01:12 AM in North Carolina | Comments (14) | Technorati

Florida Firefighters Endorse Kerry/Edwards

Posted by DavidNYC

Via DailyKos, we learn that the 19,000-strong Florida Professional Firefighters union has endorsed Kerry/Edwards. This is a union which endorsed Dubya in 2000 and Jeb in `98 and `02. I wouldn't be surprised if other similar groups will endorse Kerry. Bush has been criminally negligent when it comes to providing money to first responders - the kind of people who can actually protect us from and during terrorist attacks.

I was in Manhattan on 9/11. Two weeks earlier, I left a job where I had worked three blocks from the World Trade Center. There's no point in saying "I'll never forget that day" - it's utterly seared into my memory. So I'll be thrilled when John Kerry becomes president, if for no other reason than the fact that the cops and firefighters working on our streets and at our ports will finally get the resources they need. I think first responders will be pleased, too.

Posted at 12:05 AM in Florida | Comments (2) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 14, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 14

Posted by Chris Bowers

Previous Numbers in Parenthesis

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.69 (52.21)
Bush: 47.31 (47.79)
Statues: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (same)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (same)
States Chaning Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH and OH to Kerry

Current Projected Standings in all Swing States
Arizona: Bush +1.4
Arkansas: Bush +1.4
Colorado: Bush +3.5
Florida: Kerry +5.0
Georgia: Bush +6.8
Iowa: Kerry +3.4
Louisiana: Bush +2.8
Maine: Kerry +10.0
Michigan: Kerry +8.1
Minnesota: Kerry +6.4
Missouri: Kerry +1.2
Nevada: Bush +0.4
New Hampshire: Kerry +6.8
New Mexico: Kerry +6.2
North Carolina: Bush +0.9
Ohio: Kerry +1.1
Oregon: Kerry +7.5
Pennsylvania: Kerry +8.3
Tennessee: Bush +1.6
Virginia: Bush +4.2
Washington: Kerry +9.5
West Virginia: Bush +5.1
Wisconsin: Kerry +7.4

Bush's dam is creaking somethin' fierce right about now. Two more points and Kerry reaches 367. Georgia is closer than Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

Posted at 11:04 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (18) | Technorati

Gallup: 15-Point Lead for Bush in NC

Posted by DavidNYC

Sigh. Not quite sure what to make of this one from Gallup (no trendlines; post-Edwards; likely voters):

Kerry: 41
Bush: 56
Other: 3
(MoE: ��5%)

Seems like quite an outlier, compared to all the other NC polls. When looking at registered voters, the gap is not quite so bad, 51-44. Edwards gets very high favorables here, 63-29, and 30% of voters say his presence on the ticket makes it more likely they'll vote Dem.

Kerry, however, seems to have nose-dived in just the last few weeks, going from 58-35 on June 23-25 to 49-43 now. That's a 17-point shift. Ugly. And since Bush didn't go on the air in NC until a few days ago, I'm at a loss to explain that drop. Any ideas here, folks?

(Thanks to reader Tucker of DBD.)

Posted at 08:58 PM in North Carolina | Comments (5) | Technorati

Pennsylvania Q-Poll: Kerry Stays in the Lead

Posted by Fester

Quinnipiac University has a new poll out, conducted between July 6-11 with 1,577 registered Pennsylvania voters (late June in parens):

Kerry: 49
Bush: 42
Other/Undecided: 9
(MoE: ��2.5%)

In a three-way race (with Nader included), John Kerry and John Edwards have opened up a five-point lead over Bush/Cheney. But Nader is having massive ballot-access problems in PA.

The poll is also reporting that Kerry is gaining strength in Southwestern Pennsylvania and is strengthening his support among union members. My personal guess is that a combination of the unions institutionally feeling betrayed by Bush due to his flip-flop on steel tariffs, greater union discipline, and an unwillingness to vote on cultural versus economic issues is all starting to have an effect on solidifying this part of the Democratic winning coalition. We are also dealing with the start of an Edwards bounce as we enter the second phase of the campaign. The electorate has decided that Bush probably does not deserve a second term but the alternative needs to be examined. Well, the Kerry-Edwards ticket is looking mighty attractive so this is some good news.

Finally, I would want to wait to see if the Q-poll result is replicated with a couple of other outside the MoE leads for Kerry before the convention - but this could offer a good explanation as to why Pennsylvania is not flooded with television advertisments. Pennsylvania could be a swing state with a strong Kerry lean that needs some defense, but may not be a prime flip target. Interesting!

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

[Post modified slightly to put polling results in standard SSP format. - David]

Posted at 01:46 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (11) | Technorati

The Five Ohios

Posted by DavidNYC

Ohio. It's the mother of all swing states - and did you know that there are actually five of them? At least, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which is doing a summer-long series of articles on each region of the state. The first is on rural Appalachia, the poorest and least-educated part of Ohio.

But interestingly, despite a pedigree that might scream "Republican!" to some, Appalachia is a pretty swingy area: It delivered quite a few votes for Clinton both times around, though it mostly flipped to Bush in 2000. Economic issues are big here, given that the region mostly revolves around a dying manufacturing base, and Bush has gotten poor marks here on this front. (Only heavily Democratic Cleveland scores him worse.) The unsurprising flip-side is that the region is decidedly God-fearing, and morals are a close second to the economy here.

I think Kerry & Edwards have some good advantages over Gore-Lieberman, though. For one, John Kerry actually looks pretty comfortable holding a hunting rifle - CW says that Gore got killed on the guns issue here, much as he did in West Virginia. (And "up to 30%" of the men in the area are veterns, just like Kerry.)

Perhaps more importantly, Edwards' rural background will let him connect with voters in this region in a way that no one on the 2000 ticket could. And above all, the economy is still in the tank, and whatever signs of life it's showing are almost certainly not in evidence in Appalachia.

Is Appalachia the key to winning Ohio? I honestly don't know enough to say - but if it is, then this piece makes me think we have a fighting chance at carrying the region, and the state. I eagerly await the rest of the articles in this series. I like the style so far: Yes, there are a lot of man-on-the-street quotes, but the authors weave in useful stats, so the anecdotes actually wind up telling a meaningful story.

And because I can't resist a good map, I leave you with this big boy:

(Thanks to Wes F.)

Posted at 12:42 AM in Ohio | Comments (1) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 13, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 13

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday's Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.40 (52.21)
Bush: 47.60 (47.79)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 322, 238 solid (337)
Bush: 216, 133 solid (201)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, and OH to Kerry
States closer than three points: AR, NV, NC and TN for Bush (37), MO and OH for Kerry (31)

Kerry is looking strong, but there seems to be some sort of barrier preventing him from taking the lead by 5 or more points. It only happened once, and that was for less than one day. Ever since the race first moved to lean Kerry in mid-May, he has floated in the low 52's, excpet for the period following Gipperporn when Bush once again tied things up. Overall, from Bush's peak of 51.4 to Kerry's peak of 52.9, the total swing in the race has been by less than nine points. Perhaps I was wrong and maybe there won't be a blowout after all. I still hope that Kerry can break through to a seven point lead by next Friday, the last weekday before the convention, and then blow open a ten point lead after the convention. However, I am no longer counting on it.

Posted at 08:10 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (6) | Technorati

Kerry Just Five Points Back in VA

Posted by DavidNYC

SUSA released a new poll (PDF) last week for Virginia. Read it & groan, G-Dub (no trendlines):

Kerry: 45
Bush: 50
Other: 3
Undecided: 2
(MoE: 3.8%)

These are the kinds of numbers which have to make Karl Rove go ape, especially since they seem to echo the 48-45 Rasmussen had in his June poll. Virginia just shouldn't be this close for Bush. The too-small number of undecideds here suggests that SUSA's methodology pushes "leaners" very hard - though I must admit, I'm not sure exactly what consequences that has.

Anyhow, I wonder if Kerry's unexpected advertising had any effect, especially since, as far as I know, Bush was not on the airwaves in VA during the month of June. Also note that this poll was taken almost immediately post-Edwards, so that could well have had something of an effect. (But the pollsters did not include either Edwards' or Cheney's names in their questions.)

And speaking of ad buys, Bush is still refusing to go on the air in Virginia - perhaps due to a shortage of campaign cash, perhaps because he doesn't want to admit weakness. (Or perhaps because the GOP really does think VA is not in play - and maybe they're right.)

Oh, and the Two Johns are also on the air in NC now (same article), once again getting up before Team Bush does, just as we did in LA and CO. I suppose another pretty reasonable (if slightly narrow) way to define a swing state is, Are either of the campaigns advertising there? If the answer is "Yes, both," then you probably have a bona fide contest on your hands - as we do now in North Carolina.

Posted at 01:04 AM in North Carolina, Virginia | Comments (8) | Technorati

Monday, July 12, 2004

Swing States and TV Advertising

Posted by Chris Bowers

Cross-posted from the MyDD.

Kerry has just taken the lead over Bush in terms of total TV ads. Cool. However, what is far cooler is the analysis of advertising per state that appears in a separate article, also by Mark Memmott, in USA Today. In this article, he divides the number of ads run in a state by the number of electoral votes in the state:

Through June 26, the Bush campaign had run its ads an average of 393 times per electoral vote in the 17 states. But per electoral vote in those four states, Bush's ads had run 589 times (50% above average) in Iowa, 466 (19%) in Missouri, 470 (20%) in Ohio and 545 (39%) in Wisconsin.

Kerry's 17-state average was 405 ad showings per electoral vote. The Democratic candidate's ad pace in the four states getting the most attention: Iowa, 548 showings per electoral vote (35% above average); Missouri, 494 (22%); Ohio, 476 (18%); and Wisconsin, 593 (46%). (�Ķ)

There are seven states where both campaigns have run significantly fewer ads than their 17-state averages: Arkansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia.

Not only is it surprising that both campaigns have the same top four states, but that they also have the same bottom seven. It is particularly stunning that Pennsylvania is not in the top ten in terms of ads per electoral vote, considering how much time both candidates regularly spend in the Keystone state.

If Iowa, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin truly are the key to his election, then this article appeared a couple of weeks too late for Gephardt. C'est la vie.

Posted at 06:05 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Rasmussen: Hefty Kerry Lead in MN

Posted by DavidNYC

Rasmussen has a new poll out in MN:

Kerry: 50 (48)
Bush: 41 (43)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ��5%)

And Bush's job approval ticked down one point, from 48% to 47%.

Only one real point to make here: The reliability of many pollsters - perhaps Rasmussen's most of all - is often questioned. I share that skepticism, by which I mean to say that I don't think, for instance, that Kerry will win Minnesota by such a huge margin. However, the valuable thing you can glean is the delta - ie, the poll-to-poll change. Moving from a five-point lead to a nine-point lead suggests that Kerry has at least some positive momentum in the state.

(Thanks to FrenchSocialist.)

Posted at 04:19 PM in Minnesota | Comments (4) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 12

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote
Kerry: 52.21 (52.04)
Bush: 47.79 (47.96)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote
Kerry: 331 (311)
Bush: 207 (227)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH, NC and OH to Kerry

After spening a long time researching it, I finally decided to peg the partisan index of North Carolina at GOP +1.0, and the partisan index of Tennessee at GOP +8.6 for this election cycle. For Tennessee, I simply reverted back to the partisan index of 1988, the last time Gore was not on the ticket. For North Carolina, where it was pretty clear a shift was taking place even before Edwards, I also reverted back to 1988, and then shifted the state 7.5 to the DNC. The 7.5 figure comes from averaging the shift Gore and Lieberman brought to the ticket in TN in 1992 and CT in 2000 respectively.

All together, this pushes North Carolina to Kerry +2.4. Kerry can win North Carolina, even if the election is decided by less than two points. I can't wait for new numbers to come out of the state.

Posted at 01:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Sunday, July 11, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, July 11

Posted by Chris Bowers

(7/8 Results in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.04 (52.42)
Bush: 47.96 (47.58)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Voe Projection
Kerry: 311 (316)
Bush: 227 (222)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH

The bounce has definately stalled a bit, but I am not worried. With the excessive coverage of the convention around the corner, I still expect Kerry's lead to at least double by the beginning of August. It might even triple!

I continue to make improvements to the formula, which I now believe is finalized. I ran some numbers on the 1996 and 2000 election cycles, and noticed that if I added "direction of the country" numbers and altered the way I determined the dataset, that the predictor was far more stable and guessed the outcome of each election within one half point. I will post a final version of the methodology (which really isn't that different from the one I had been using) on Tuesday.

Posted at 03:11 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Saturday, July 10, 2004

Appeals Court Puts up Roadblock to Yucca Mountain Plan

Posted by DavidNYC

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals (which is the appellate court for the D.C. District Court - a court which, by virtue of its location, hears a lot of important cases) issued a ruling this week which seems to put a major roadblock in front of the Bush Administration's plan to store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Apparently, the appeals panel sided with the feds on every count but one: How long must the waste stored at Yucca be kept safely contained?

The numbers boggle the mind a litte bit: The current plan will (allegedly) protect the waste for 10,000 years. Congress, however, required that the EPA follow the National Academy of Science's guidelines, which call for securing the waste for 350,000 years. The appeals court said that using the shortened timeline was illegal, and hence the present plan is a no-go. And who says Americans only live for the present?

Anyhow, Kerry has been pretty steadfast in his opposition to Yucca, and has been making a campaign issue of it. Edwards, who had voted for Yucca in 2002, has a little tap-dancing to do, but he's fallen quickly in line behind his new boss. In dismissing Edwards' past support for Yucca, Nevada state Senator Dina Titus had a clever line: "Unlike with the Bush administration, the vice president's not in charge in a Kerry administration." And unlike Joe Lieberman's ideologically-based support of school vouchers - which, Maoist re-education camp-style, he had to disavow after Gore tapped him - Edwards' past support for Yucca Mountain was almost certainly a matter of parochial (ie, NIMBY) local politics.

Meanwhile, this issue is growing only more, ah, toxic for Bush. Both Nevada's Republican Governor and Republican U.S. Senator are in strong opposition to Yucca Mountain, putting Bush on the wrong side of this wedge issue in an important battleground state. Unlike most other issues Bush is wrong about - Iraq's ties to Al Qaeda, WMDs, etc., etc. - this one can't be spun: It's a simple yes-or-no. It's not quite clear how this new court ruling will shake out, but by bring Yucca back into the headlines, it can only serve to make Bush look bad.

No polls have been done in NV in quite some time. Let's hope someone does one soon.

Posted at 02:28 AM in Nevada | Comments (3) | Technorati

Finally, a New Mexico Poll (and it looks good!)

Posted by DavidNYC

ARG, admittedly not a very beloved pollster, has at least gone ahead and done something no one else has seen fit to do for months: taken a new poll in New Mexico. April results in parens:

Kerry: 51 (47)
Bush: 43 (47)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

An eight-point lead in a state decided by a Florida-size margin in 2000 looks pretty sweet right about now. What's more, Kerry and Edwards just hit the state tonight for a big (10,000-plus) rally. I'm very glad to see this - the Southwest was long overdue for a visit from the top of the ticket. For some truly excellent on-the-ground reporting of this event, check out gehrigsranch's diary on DKos. I personally really enjoy this kind of reportage, far more than some bloodless AP piece.

It also appears that we're (finally) about to open our New Mexico field office. So we've got a bunch of good NM news all at once. One of my fears has long been that by focusing on the three biggest swing states - FL, PA, OH - we might lose the election by the proverbial thousand small cuts: A New Mexico here, an Oregon there, maybe even a Wisconsin or two. Now, I'm sure that the Kerry camp and all our various allies haven't lost sight of all the smaller states (tonight's visit to NM is clear evidence of that), but it is nonetheless reassuring to see us with a decent hold on one of these crucial, if smaller, battlegrounds.

And I just gotta say: How great do these two guys look together?

It seems that both men have huge smiles in every picture I've seen all week - they look like they're really enjoying themselves out there. And Edwards has somehow made me more excited about Kerry - the former seems to have injected some new life and warmth into the latter. I'm not quite at Dean levels yet, but I feel really good about this ticket.

Posted at 01:28 AM in New Mexico | Comments (8) | Technorati

Friday, July 09, 2004

Ohio, Pennsylvania Polls

Posted by Chris Bowers

You down with OPP? Yeah, you know Rasmussen. June 1-30, 500 LV statewide. MoE 5 (May 16-June 15 results in parenthesis)

Ohio
Bush 46 (46)
Kerry 42 (43)

Pennsylvania
Kerry 48 (47)
Bush 43 (45)

According to these polls, both states are nearly identical to 2000. So far in this election, the polling from Pennsylvania has looked good, and the numbers from Ohio have been all over the map. If Kerry can win Ohio, the election will be his.

Posted at 04:33 PM in General | Comments (24) | Technorati

Multi-State Poll Roundup

Posted by DavidNYC

I'm a little pressed for time at the moment, so I'll just go ahead and point you over to Markos's poll round-up. He has about a bazillion states there.

Posted at 01:58 PM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, July 08, 2004

Bush Lead Narrows Sharply in Wisconsin

Posted by DavidNYC

In April, the University of Wisconsin did a poll which showed results that most of us could scarcely believe. In March, they had Bush with a six-point lead, but in that April poll, that lead widened to an astounding 50-38. So, a bit of good news: Bush is now down to a four-point lead according to a new poll, conducted in June, pre-Edwards, of course (April trendlines in parens):

Kerry: 42 (38)
Bush: 46 (50)
Nader: 5 (6)
Undecided: 5 (4)
(MoE: ��4%)

I don't like including Nader any longer, but if the polling organizations keep including him, then I feel that I have to as well, for accuracy's sake. Most of the other numbers aren't much changed since March (the last time this outfit asked this particular question). Bush's favorability rating still seems fairly high: 52-42.

But his re-elect numbers got worse - in fact, they reached their worst point yet. When respondents were asked if they'd like to see Bush given a second term, or if they'd prefer to see "someone else," 43% said re-elect and 51% said don't re-elect. In April, those numbers stood at 48-47. (And in the less-anomalous March poll, they were 45-50.) So what this says to me is that some 9% of voters - the difference between the 42% Kerry gets in the horserace and the 51% opposing Bush's re-election - are ready to be pursuaded. That gives me at least some confidence that we can hold on to the Badger State.

Posted at 06:08 PM in Wisconsin | Comments (9) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 8: Early Edition

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.42 (51.38)
Bush: 47.58 (48.62)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 316 (291)
Bush: 222 (247)
States Changing hands from 2000: FL, NH, OH and WV

Let the bouncing begin! Kerry is on the brink of taking over Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada and North Carolina. As Kerry���s numbers continue to rise during July (almost inevitable), Colorado, Louisiana, Tennessee and Virginia could also turn from the dark side (maybe Arizona too, but things are looking pretty pro-Bush there right now). If the popular vote projection shifts just a few more points (likely), Florida, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon and Pennsylvania could all turn deep blue, bringing Kerry up to 281 solid electoral votes.

VP and convention bumps are temporary, but I am going to enjoy this while it lasts. July is going to be fun.

Posted at 02:23 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Wednesday, July 07, 2004

Rasmussen Florida Poll Shows Kerry Leading

Posted by DavidNYC

Taking a breaking from all-Edwards, all the time, there's a new Rasmussen poll out in Florida (May in parens):

Kerry: 48 (46)
Bush: 43 (46)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 4 (4)
(MoE: ��4%)

Bush gets a 50% job approval rating, and apparently, Kerry has a double-digit lead among women, while Bush only has a "modest" lead among men. And be aware that this poll is pre-Edwards.

(Thanks to thrashbluegrass.)

Posted at 11:33 PM in Florida | Comments (1) | Technorati

Quickie Insta-Poll on Edwards

Posted by DavidNYC

CNN did a quick poll today (with an MoE of ��5%) about Edwards. I think the screen caps show it better than text alone would:

The "choice of running mate" number in the first panel looks very good, but I was especially glad to see the results in the third panel. Evidently, the phrase "trial lawyer" isn't as automatically toxic as many Republicans might hope. I also just finished the first section of Edwards' book Four Trials and I found it to be very moving and humanizing.

One other thing: I came across a new Annenberg poll (PDF) via Polling Report. Edwards currently gets a 31-17 fave/unfave rating, with 29% "neutral" and 22% undecided. His spread among independents is a nifty 36-8. The same poll put Kerry at 40-36-18-6. (MoE: ��3%.)

I can't wait for the next NC poll.

(Images thanks to Al Rodgers.)

Posted at 01:46 AM in General, North Carolina | Comments (9) | Technorati

Tuesday, July 06, 2004

More NC Polling Data

Posted by DavidNYC

Even though it falls outside of my strict criteria, I'm going to add NC as a swing state based on Chris's observation that VPs historically provide a roughly five-and-a-half percent boost in their home states. The margin in NC in 2000 was about 13 points (interestingly, Nader was not on the ballot there); with Chris's new cosmological constant in play, that puts NC safely within the SSP's ��10% cut-off. (I'll update the map as soon as I get a chance.)

Rasmussen just released a new, month-long poll that covers the month of June (May in parens):

Kerry: 42 (44)
Bush: 49 (48)
Other: 2 (3)
Undecided: 6 (5)
(MoE: ��5%)

Kerry's gap widened from four to seven points here, but the MoE is fairly hefty. I bet we'll see it close up again when Rasmussen releases his July poll.

Research 2000 also did a poll back in June for a consortium of media outlets (no trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 47
(MoE: ��4%)

Quite maddeningly, the article linked just above says, "The divide would narrow further if Kerry selects Sen. John Edwards as his running mate, according to the survey," but it doesn't say what those numbers are! If anyone can find those numbers, I'm sure we'd all really love to see them. (By the way, this is the same R2K poll I mentioned below concerning Edwards' popularity numbers.)

I think my earlier throwaway comparison to NJ is at least half-right: Right now, Bush is looking surprisingly weak in NC (just as a few polls have shown Kerry looking surprisingly weak in NJ), but odds are, that'll change by election day. It's half-wrong, of course, because the big difference is that Bush isn't tapping Christie Whitman to be his VP - if he had, then I might be more nervous about Jersey (and the election in general). With Johnny Sunshine on the ticket, NC becomes a whole new ballgame. Someone please insert a clever Bull Durham quote here, willya?

Posted at 05:56 PM in North Carolina | Comments (20) | Technorati

The Pittsburgh Effect

Posted by Seamus

David already posted about the impact of the Edwards selection as VP on his home state of North Carolina. But my mind has been wrapped around another aspect of John Kerry's Vice Presidential announcement - its location.

Although I do not live in Pittsburgh, I am getting a strong vibe about the level of effort being put into this area by John Kerry. Due to Theresa Heinz-Kerry's close relationship to the Pittsburgh area, there is a great opportunity here to influence the election in 2004. Presidential wives aren't known to carry states as far as I know, but owning personal property where you can hold Independence Day barbecues does a lot for a candidate's profile. And announcing the VP selection in Pittsburgh before a tour that will end in North Carolina is pure brilliance in the way in which it creates an extended media opportunity. The only thing missing was John Edwards standing alongside Kerry with hands held high in the air. While I missed seeing that, the opportunity will come at the convention, so it isn't a big loss.

Over the last few days, Dick Cheney was also in town. The local news channels were covering both visits but the contrasts couldn't be more obvious. Cheney was coming to speak to a closed door Republican Group in Oakland. Announcement only. But the local news was broadcasting for days that for anyone who wanted to see John Kerry, doors would open at 7am. So there was an announcement plus an update on what to do if you wanted to see Kerry.

And then, this morning, watching the VP announcement on WTAE-ABC, I couldn't help but notice their pleasant coverage. "[Steelers great] Franco Harris welcomed the crowd by telling them that he was not the Vice Presidential nominee." They repeated this line several times and added this additional off-hand comment as well, "Wow, he is really going all out for Kerry this year, isn't he." And remember, this coverage is not only piping out across Western Pennsylvania but also eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.

I don't think the effect is anecdotal. Pittsburgh has an impressive Meetup enrollment of 1,337 rating it highly in comparison to cities of similar size. Kerry has done fairly well in the polls here too. I hope that the Kerry campaign continues to make intelligent use of its personal ties to swing regions like Pittsburgh and North Carolina.

Posted at 03:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, July 6: Final Pre-Edwards Edition

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Cross-Posted from MyDD)

National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.38
Bush: 48.62
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 291
Bush: 247
States changing hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry

This will be the final GECC that does not include post-Edwards data. In fact, I expect the polling to be so fast and furious that all pre-Edwards data might be removed from the dataset as early as Saturday.

Over the past two weeks I have made some slight changes to the formula in order to account for current events:

1-No polls that include Nader are included in the formula, except in the states where he seems certain to be on the ballot.
2-For at least the rest of the summer, only national trial heats of ���registered��� voters will be included. Likely voter models, at this stage, are too prone to tampering and inaccuracy.
3-In order to account for the third-party influence on the race, 2 points will be deducted from all Bush disapproval numbers.
4-The partisan index for North Carolina will be set at 8.0, since five and a half points appears to be roughly the historic boost a VP brings to his / her home state.

July will be great month for Kerry. However, no matter what crap Dowd is trying to sell, do not expect his lead to ever surpass ten points. Frankly, I do not think it is possible for either candidate to win this election by more than 13 points, and I do not think it is possible for any candidate to (accurately) poll more than ten points ahead. If Kerry takes a ten-point lead, then he will have maximized his VP and convention ���bounce.���

Kerry won the first phase of the general election campaign. In the second phase, he seems to be off to a roaring start.

Posted at 12:56 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Does Edwards as VP Make NC a Swing State?

Posted by DavidNYC

Does John Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate make us more competitive in the Carolinas? It's a good question. At the very least, it makes the Bushies sweat a lot more in that region of the country.*

A Mason-Dixon poll in May (from Polling Report - no link available) showed Bush with a 48-41 lead in NC. But when people were asked to choose between Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards, that lead shrunk all the way to 46-45. And a Research 2000 poll in June showed Edwards with a pretty solid 55-37 favorability rating. Plus, in that poll, 55% of respondents said Kerry should tap Edwards, compared to just 37 against. (But there was no paired matchup in that poll.)

Previously, I've called New Jersey a Jack Daniel's state. North Carolina is the exact opposite: A Dom Perignon state - if you see this state go blue on election night, break out the bubbly and start celebrating. I'm certain there will be a lot more polling in North Carolina very soon.

*(South Carolina, though much more conservative than NC, has also suffered a lot of job losses - and don't forget that Johnny Sunshine won the SC primary pretty convincingly. I know primary politics are a horse of a different color, but it suggests to me that Edwards has strong institutional and popular support there. Again, not that I think we'll win here, but if the Bushies have to even think about SC, then they're running scared. The most recent poll, taken for Republican Senate candidate Jim DeMint, showed Bush with a 15-point lead here, but a slightly earlier poll by Rasmussen put Bush just 10 points ahead - a far smaller margin than in many other Deep South states.)

P.S. For what it's worth, I'm pretty happy with this pick. As you probably know, Bill Richardson had long been my top choice, but John Edwards was probably my second-favorite.

Posted at 08:57 AM in North Carolina | Comments (11) | Technorati

Sunday, July 04, 2004

Happy Fourth of July

Posted by DavidNYC

I hope everyone's having a great Fourth of July. As you might expect, posting will be light here this weekend.

Also, some people - myself included - have encountered a frustrating (and improper) error message when trying to post comments here. You might see something like this:

An error occurred...

Your comment has not been posted because it appears to contain questionable content. If you believe you have received this message in error, please contact the author of this weblog.

Please correct the error in the form below, then press Post to post your comment.

TypePad has apparently "upgraded" its spam-filtering software, and it's hitting some glitches. (Perhaps not so wise to do this on a holiday weekend, fellas.) I have a help request in to the company, but there's unfortunately nothing I can do about it at the moment. So please remember whatever it is you wanted to say, and come back on Tuesday prepared to jabber.

Better thought: Just go and enjoy some barbecue, beer and fireworks. Happy Independence Day!

UPDATE: TypePad says the problem has been fixed, and indeed, I was just able to post a comment. But if you run into any problems, please shoot me an e-mail.

Posted at 01:29 PM in Site News | Technorati

Saturday, July 03, 2004

Ohio's Unpopular Gov. Taft

Posted by DavidNYC

The Times has a front-page (at least, front page of the website) story on Ohio. It's one of those purely anecdotal stories that I find both boring and useless: The reporter just wanders around the state in search of swing voters and gathers some quotes from people who profess to like neither Bush nor Kerry.

But there's another, much more interesting story in the Times today about Ohio, one that I hadn't yet heard about. Apparently, there's a split on the right in Ohio state politics, between the allegedly moderate Governor Bob Taft and his more conservative flank. Ohio Republicans, who dominate every level of government, are now suffering for that strangehold: GOP has only itself to blame for Ohio's problems, so now the infighting has begun. (This is similar to the position faced by the national GOP, which holds every lever of power at the federal level.)

Gov. Taft - who can't run for re-election in 2006 - has seen his approval rating drop to 47% in the most recent University of Cincinatti Ohio Poll (PDF). Admittedly, this poll was taken in February, but Taft used to be a very popular figure, regularly garnerning approval ratings in the high 60s. Evidently, people are unhappy that Taft raised taxes - which of course is the bitter fruit left to state governments as a result of Bush's tax cuts.

It remains to be seen what kind of an effect this will actually have on the election. Some very tired conventional wisdom says that the party which holds a state's governor's mansion gets a boost on election day. (I have no idea how you'd test this theory out, but like I said, it's just the CW.) I don't doubt, though, that a popular governor can help a presidential election effort, and I'm sure that guys like Bill Richardson in NM or Ed Rendell in PA will be a big help to us. But if Taft is unpopular to the point of being persona non grata on the campaign trail, that can only be a boon for our side.

P.S. I rather like the map that the Times produced showing how Ohio voted in 2000. (And good to see Dave Leip getting credit where credit is due.)

Posted at 02:19 PM in Ohio | Comments (4) | Technorati

Friday, July 02, 2004

Nader Knocked off AZ Ballot

Posted by DavidNYC

Even though Chris tells us we no longer need to worry about Nader, I'm going to follow up with what appears to the final chapter of a story I've been keeping track of here at the SSP. It looks like Nader is officially off the ballot in Arizona. Not surprisingly, Nader's supporters in AZ determined that any continued legal battle would be too expensive.

(Via Kos. AP story thanks to Dour.)

Posted at 02:18 PM in Arizona | Technorati

Richardson is Really, Really Out

Posted by DavidNYC

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is truly, finally, absolutely, genuinely, really out of the running for the VP nod - he just sent a letter to Kerry specifically saying he could not accept an offer. Richardson was my favorite in large part for his ability to help us with several important swing states - NM, of course, but also NV, AZ and CO. And he probably even had the potential to help woo Hispanic voters outside the Southwest as well.

Anyhow, I don't think any other potential VP candidate out there offers our ticket such a broad potential swath of swing-state support. Sure, Vilsack might help us keep Iowa, but that's just one state. And I don't believe Gephardt can do very much to help us win Missouri. So I'm now hoping for Edwards, largely because he is an appealing figure - he's articulate, energetic, pretty charismatic and certainly telegenic. In any event, we'll find out soon, maybe as early as Tuesday.

(Via Political Wire.)

Posted at 12:17 PM in New Mexico | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, July 01, 2004

SUSA Michigan Poll

Posted by DavidNYC

Obviously, there haven't been enough polls around here today... anyhow, I don't usually post Survey USA polls - not because I don't approve of their methodology (which some people complain about), but mostly because Polling Report doesn't carry them. Anyhow, SUSA has a new poll in MI (PDF), with numbers that oughta be pleasing (5/31 - 6/2 trendlines in parens):

Kerry: 51 (47)
Bush: 41 (43)
Other: 6 (7)
Undecided: 2 (4)
(MoE: ��4.1%)

I don't have much to say, except that this is the first time we've seen Kerry with a lead this big since early April. (And that was also SUSA.) Most of the other outfits have shown a much closer race, though if the undecided break for us (as they are traditionally believed to do for the challenger), then Michigan looks pretty good for us.

(Thanks to JoshInPHL.)

Posted at 07:50 PM in Michigan | Comments (3) | Technorati

Moore Polls WA Yet Again

Posted by DavidNYC

Moore Information may be run by a bunch of Republicans, but the gang who runs that shop is close to my heart in one respect: They like to poll early and often. It was just two weeks ago that they had a poll out in Washington, and yet here they are with another one (early June trendlines in parens):

Kerry: 43 (45)
Bush: 43 (44)
Nader: 4 (4)
Undecided: 10 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

As you can see, this is essentially unchanged from a fortnight ago. (Ooh, I got to say fortnight!) I got these results from Polling Report, and I don't see any news coverage of `em yet. But Moore tends to post their poll results on their website here. (The most recent update there is the last WA poll, though.)

Posted at 07:03 PM in Washington | Comments (3) | Technorati

Kerry Lead Shrinks in Maine

Posted by DavidNYC

From Strategic Marketing Services - check out those March trendlines. Gack!

Kerry: 44 (51)
Bush: 41 (38)
Nader: 5 (4)
Undecided: 11 (8)
(MoE: ��4.9%)

A thirteen-point lead shrinking to a three-point lead? Yikes. Even Patrick Murphy, the head of SMS, said he was a "bit surprised" at the results. Quoting from the story linked above, Murphy "suggested that the numbers may reflect Republican advertising that Kerry had yet to respond to as well as the blanket news coverage of former President Ronald Reagan��s funeral."

Okay, so if it's the latter, that's understandable. But the former? Huh? I thought Kerry had been on the air in all the swing states, including Maine. So what gives?

Posted at 06:50 PM in Maine | Comments (9) | Technorati

Hoeffel Takes a Hit

Posted by Fester

The Pennsylvania Senate race is, from the Democrats' perspective, the top race of the second-tier pick-up opportunities; it is not an Illinois or an Alaska. There has been a reasonable chance of a pickup if the party maintains unity, runs a strong candidate who does not make too many if any mistakes and sees Specter spend a lot of political capital repairing the bridges buckled if not burned during a bruising primary campaign. Well, if I need to handicap the chances of a Democratic pick-up, the odds just got signficantly longer this afternoon.

Former Congressman Ron Klink (D-PA) has announced that he will be leading a "Democrats for Specter" committee. Klink is a conservative Democrat from the western part of the state. His former district has elected Melissa Hart (R-PA) for the past two cycles, and she is pretty conservative. Klink represents a large enough chunk of the state Democratic Party to give Specter some breathing room despite his low re-elect numbers. This race just got to be a lot tougher.

NOTE: Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 05:04 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (4) | Technorati

With and Without Fox

Posted by Chris Bowers

Cross posted from MyDD

Just how much are the Fox polls from last week propping up Bush? I have run the numbers for how much they affect my projections:

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, With Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.25
Bush: 48.75
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274
Kerry: 264
States Changing Hands: NH to Kerry

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, Without Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.03
Bush: 47.97
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 311
Bush: 227
States Changing Hands: FL, NH and Ohio to Kerry

Kerry Lead, Important States
With Fox / Without Fox
FL -0.02 / 2.1
MI 3.4 / 5.7
MO -1.4 / -0.5
OH -1.6 / 0.3
PA 4.6 / 7.1
WV -0.9 / -0.02

In short, Fox turns a slight Kerry lead into a race that is too close to call. Fox News--we report, but only after receiving directions from the RNC.

Posted at 01:54 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati