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Thursday, July 01, 2004

With and Without Fox

Cross posted from MyDD

Just how much are the Fox polls from last week propping up Bush? I have run the numbers for how much they affect my projections:

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, With Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.25
Bush: 48.75
Status: Too close to call

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 274
Kerry: 264
States Changing Hands: NH to Kerry

General Election Cattle Call, 7/1, Without Fox Polls
National Two-Party Vote Projection
Kerry: 52.03
Bush: 47.97
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 311
Bush: 227
States Changing Hands: FL, NH and Ohio to Kerry

Kerry Lead, Important States
With Fox / Without Fox
FL -0.02 / 2.1
MI 3.4 / 5.7
MO -1.4 / -0.5
OH -1.6 / 0.3
PA 4.6 / 7.1
WV -0.9 / -0.02

In short, Fox turns a slight Kerry lead into a race that is too close to call. Fox News--we report, but only after receiving directions from the RNC.

Posted at 01:54 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Comments

When he was guest-blogging at TPM, Ruy Teixeira had a good post about the alternate universe that Fox seems to poll.

Posted by: DavidNYC at July 1, 2004 02:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for working on getting Bush out of office. Here are links to two states (AZ and OH) from the Economist. If the links work, I can send you the rest. In any case, I have copied the text of the two articles below.

[Arizona]

http://economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2670863

[Comment edited due to copyright considerations. - David]

Posted by: Carl at July 2, 2004 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment