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« Virginia as a Possible Pick-Up | Main | Gallup Shows a Tight Race in FL »

Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Arizona as a Possible Pick-Up

Posted by Chris Bowers

Since Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate and Nader was kicked off the Arizona ballot, there have been three polls from the state (the recent BRC poll was only of Maricopa County). Compared to the polls from Virginia, in Arizona the numbers have varied widely:

Firm / Date / Bush / Kerry
AR / 8/1 / 48 / 45
KAET / 7/17 / 41 / 42
SUSA / 7/14 / 53 / 41

With three polls so widely varying from one another, there is no point in averaging them. However, here are how the three polls project when 60% of the undecideds break for Kerry (in accordance with my research on the incumbent rule) and how the three polls project when 75% of the undecideds break for Kerry (in accordance with earlier research on the incumbent rule):

60% of the Undecideds to Kerry
Firm / Bush / Kerry
AR / 50.8 / 49.2
KAET / 47.8 / 52.2
SUSA / 53.8 / 42.2

75% of the Undecideds to Kerry
Firm / Bush / Kerry
AR / 49.7 / 50.3
KAET / 45.8 / 54.2
SUSA / 53.5 / 42.5

In the 60% scenario, Kerry wins one out of three times. In the 75% scenario, Kerry wins two our of three times, including once by a decisive margin.

Once one of the most solid of all Republican states, Arizona has been trending Democratic for over 20 years now. If the state did not have one of the most restrictive felony disenfranchisement laws (PDF) on the books, it would not have taken until late August for Zogby to confirm Arizona's status as a swing state. If Arizona can change their voting laws as New Mexico and Virginia have done (PDF), and if the anti-immigration proposition on the state ballot in November can be defeated, then in 2008 Arizona could become a true toss-up state. As demographics continue to change, in 2012 Arizona may just become lean-Dem.

Posted at 04:53 PM in Arizona | Technorati

Comments

I don't know if I agree with your assessment and at times I think you are bit too optimistic, but whenever I fear another 4 of Bush, reading your posts at least makes me feel a little better.

Posted by: Michael at August 24, 2004 11:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment