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Saturday, August 21, 2004
Bush Crosses into Doomed Territory in New Mexico
Posted by Chris BowersOver at MyDD, I have been keeping track of something I call The Doom Index. In under-polled New Mexico, ARG shows Bush standing on the threshold of doom:
Kerry: 52 (51)
Bush: 42 (43)
Undecided: 6 (6)
(MoE: �� 4%)
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
Bush: 43/50 (-7)
Kerry: 52/41 (+11)
When a candidate, especially an incumbent, hits 50% unfavorables and trails by 18 points in favorability ratio (on equal name recognition), the outcome of the election in almost certain. It would take a large spike in Kerry unfavorables for Bush to once again become competitive in New Mexico.
Posted at 08:45 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Great news out of NM. That's the sort of lead that Kerry should be able to maintain after the RNC bounce. Also, it could mean that neighboring states like CO and AZ are in play.
Posted by: Rock_nj at August 21, 2004 09:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Is this one of the Swift Boat Liar Ad states?
Posted by: Steve at August 22, 2004 07:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
To my knowledge the only states actually targeted by the disgruntled Swift boat veterans' ad have been OH, WV, and WI. Of course now that the ad has become big "news" with the mainstream media, that relatively inexpensive ad has gone well beyond the borders of those three states. Over half the US population has seen the full ad on the news or internet. Already this morning, it's the big story on the news channels, as I'm sure it will be on the Sunday morning news programs as well. As of right now, the ad has ostensibly and dramatically boosted Bush's support with veterans in those states and beyond. According to a NY Times article from yesterday, the ad may be resonating strongly in WV, a state with a significant population of veterans. It will be interesting to see polls from WV to see if this is the case. Across the border from WV, SE Ohio also has a significant number of veterans who have been targeted by these ads. There was no mention in the article, however, of the ad's impact in OH or WI, just WV.
Posted by: Pepe at August 22, 2004 08:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
No one on here has mentioned yet that Rasmussen's latest poll on Colorado backs up the SUSA poll that the race there is tied - 47-47 according to him.
Posted by: Scott at August 22, 2004 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
John "sees" this about votehillary.org and "had heard" that about it, but he gives "votehillary.org" as the URL connected with his name, which is odd.
In any case, the website is empty. Nothing there but the title.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 22, 2004 11:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
this doesn't square at al with rasmussen's result
Posted by: Christopher Brandow at August 23, 2004 12:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment