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Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Gallup Shows a Tight Race in FL
Posted by DavidNYCGallup (which doesn't often poll specific states, it seems) has a new survey out for Florida. The first set of numbers is for likely voters (July in parens):
Kerry: 47 (47)
Bush: 48 (50)
Undecided: 5 (3)
(MoE: ��4%)
The second set (which is rather similar) is for registered voters (July in parens):
Kerry: 46 (45)
Bush: 46 (49)
Undecided: 8 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)
This poll has a slightly different flavor to it: The original question included Nader, but these respondents were then asked what they'd do if Nader were not on the ballot. So the numbers listed here represent the net results after the Naderites were re-queried. Ralph may well be on the ballot here, though.
No favorability numbers in this survey, unfortunately. Though this poll shows things a lot closer than some others, the trendlines look good (if they hold). As always, a tie now is a win for us later, due to our well-founded expectation that undecideds will break for us heavily.
Posted at 11:54 PM in Florida | Technorati
Comments
A new poll by Rasmussen shows similar results -- Bush with a slight lead. I'm still confident that Ohio remains a better bet for Kerry than Florida. Of course, the whole tide could change either way next week and after the debates.
Posted by: Jason at August 25, 2004 03:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As always, a tie now is a win for us later, due to our well-founded expectation that undecideds will break for us heavily.
In the post-9/11 world in which we live, I wouldn't bet the farm on that assumption.
Posted by: Pepe at August 25, 2004 05:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment