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Tuesday, August 03, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 3
Posted by Chris Bowers(July 29 numbers in parens)
National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.12 (51.18)
Bush: 46.88 (48.82)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 343, 243 solid (302, 206)
Bush: 195, 127 solid (236, 133)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH, OH, TN and WV (all to Kerry)
States Projected by Less than 3%: AZ, AR, CO and VA for Bush (38); FL, IA, MO, NV, OH, TN and WV for Kerry (86)
Who says there's no bump? Since Kerry's speech, his lead over Bush in unvaforables has risen from 7.4 to 10.2. Also, Bush's job rating has once again dipped into negative territory. Combine these two factors with a removal of Fox from the dataset, and Kerry received a notable bump indeed.
This is Kerry's strongest electoral position since I began making these calculations in April and his second strongest popular vote position during that time. Never before have I projected TN to switch to Kerry. I also cannot remember a time when so many states (11) were projected closer than three points. As Austin Powers would say, it's a pretty swinging country out there right now. Yeah, baby, yeah!
Posted at 10:52 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Groovy, baby.
Posted by: DavidNYC at August 3, 2004 12:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WOW!
I thought that I was standing out there alone! I'm currently showing my biggest Kerry lead ever:
KERRY-353 EV BUSH-185 EV
At least there's someone close to me. Although that's where I honestly see the numbers right now, I was starting to feel isolated, so THANKS!
2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Who I Think Will Win & WHY
Posted by: Chuck at August 3, 2004 12:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment