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Wednesday, August 04, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 4
Posted by Chris Bowers(Yesterday's results in parenthesis)
National Two-Party Vote-Projection
Kerry: 53.16 (53.12)
Bush: 46.84 (46.88)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 235 solid (343, 243)
Bush: 226, 118 solid (195, 127)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less Than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA for Bush (78); MO for Kerry (11)
While Bush moved up a bit in the electoral projection by retaking slim leads in OH and TN, as you can see from the "states projected under three points" line, more than one-third of Bush's EV are extremely precarious. Kerry has 301 EV's from states where he leads by more than 3, whereas Bush only has 148 from such states.. In other words, even though Kerry's overall margin dropped, he is in a very strong position right now. And man, with the exception of Ohio, that list of states where Bush is up by less than three reads like a DNC wish list of states where we would hope to be competitive this time around.
Four weeks until Bush's speech at the RNC, and a new phase of the campaign begins. Right now though, things are looking pretty darn good.
Posted at 12:26 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Does anyone remember the old TV show "That's my Bush!!" I think that was the only W I have ever liked...Although I think they played him smarter than he really is... (HE WAS ALMOST DONE IN BY A PRETZEL FOR GOD SAKES.)
Posted by: Michael at August 4, 2004 02:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah, I remember that show. (I like how it can already be called an "old show" - instant nostalgia.) It starred Timothy Bottoms, who bears a pretty strong resemblance to Dubya and who also portrayed him in the Stalinist propaganda film "DC 9/11."
Posted by: DavidNYC at August 4, 2004 03:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That show was the most pro-Bush anything I ever saw. :-P
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 4, 2004 03:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That show was great I taped the marathon that they had on Comedy Central.
Posted by: David at August 5, 2004 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College prediction / projection / tracking sites here.
Executive summary: Of 25 sites survey, 18 have Kerry winning, another 4 have him ahead. Three sites have Bush winning. Approximate average of all sites: Kerry 296 - Bush 242.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 7, 2004 01:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just saw a new AP poll for Florida, New Hampshire & California.
California:
Bush/Cheney - 40
Kerry/Edwards - 51
Nader - 2
Florida:
Bush/Cheney - 43
Kerry/Edwards - 50
Nader - 2
New Hampshire:
Bush/Cheney - 42
Kerry/Edwards - 49
Nader - 2
I just thought I'd spread the apparent good news.
Posted by: Jason - Charlotte at August 7, 2004 08:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just thought I'd spread the apparent good news.
These are not AP poll results (although they may well have been reported by the AP). The California result is from the Field Poll, and the other two are from ARG.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 7, 2004 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Dan at November 12, 2004 12:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment