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Saturday, August 07, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 7
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Projections in Parenthesis)
National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection:
Kerry: 52.99 (53.16)
Bush: 47.01 (46.84)
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 231 (312, 235)
Bush: 226, 118 (226, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA (78) for Bush; MO, NV and WV for Kerry (21)
Kerry still looks strong, reaching 48 or higher in all ten post-convention, two-way trial heats. Bush only reaches 48 in one of those ten polls, CNN / USA Today / Gallup. If Kerry is at 48 or higher on election day, Bush will need all of the undecideds to break his way in order to win. As we know, undecideds usually tend to break away from the incumbent.
Kerry enjoys double digit leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Washington, shifting the battleground primarily to states that Bush won in 2000. Kerry is also doing well in Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Oregon, further increasing the pressure on Bush. Among Gore states, only Iowa and Wisconsin seemt to have a realistic chance to defect ot Bush.
If Kerry holds all the Gore states except Wisconsin and Iowa, but he picks up Florida, he wins 270-268. Considering this, the only piece of strategic advice I have for the Kerry campaign, the DNC and pro-Kerry 527's would be to significantly increase advertising in Florida. It is still the most important state, and presents the quickest, surest path to victory. I want Kerry to win, but a victory that does not include Florida loses some of its redemption value.
Posted at 05:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
(Please excuse the repetition, but people looking for Chris' latest cattle call may miss the comment I posted on the 8/4 edition.)
For those interested, I've posted my latest survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection sites here.
Executive summary: of the 28 sites surveyed, 21 show Kerry winning, and 4 others show him ahead. Three sites show Bush winning.
The average of all sites is Kerry 296 - Bush 242.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 7, 2004 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't like the idea of the election being decided in Florida again or the idea of the Kerry Campaign relying upon Florida too much. Without any doubt he should campaign hard there and I tend to suspect that any election rigging in 2004 will occur elsewhere, but Bush has too many henchmen in Florida for a Kerry victory to be anything less than a mild surprise.
Posted by: rob at August 8, 2004 05:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Even in Texas the rednecks feel there's something wrong with Bush although they can't really articulate what they mean when they spout off. Great feeling to see this in so red a state.
The polls are representing something real.
Posted by: roo roo at August 8, 2004 06:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm showing Kerry at 238 solid EV right now (8/8 - 8% and up). With a total lean of 36 EV (8/8 - 7% and down to 4%), he's the next President at 274 EV. As tight as this thing is (and has been)- ARG shows 4% undecided, Bush had better call up the packing servants and schedule the moving van.
Only one poll out of the last ten post Dem convention (CNN/GALLUP/USA TODAY) has shown a Bush lead. ARG shows a trend of Kerry leading since March- some even outside the MoE. Bush's approval ratings are holding for two months at a "toilet level" 43% overall. The Middle East quagmire continues with no let up- death, tour of duty extensions, backdoor drafts, LIES, FEAR MONGERING. The true economy numbers are showing what we knew all along and they've run out of sugar coating for that.
Forget about a Repug convention bounce. Where's that going to come from? AND...the Fall debates are coming up (if Bush doesn't try to get out of those).
IMO, CNN and FAUX "NEWS" couldn't team up and spin this mess out for Bush (although they're trying). Add it all up yourself. Bush is in SERIOUS TROUBLE.
My biggest concern, however, is that it's going to take something MAJOR in the next couple of months to bring the gullible back and rallying around Bush. Do you think something's in the works?
Posted by: Chuck at August 8, 2004 12:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
All of this optimism is making me nervous. The problem is that there's really limit to what Bush and the Repubs will do to keep their hold on power.
They'll fill the airways with lies and distortions. They'll secretly create a phony terrorist plot and claim to have stopped it. Maybe they'll even start another war. And if none of that works, ballots can get "misplaced" and electronic votes can go to NeverNeverLand.
They stole the election in 2000. What's to keep them from doing it again?
Posted by: Billy at August 8, 2004 02:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm with you, Billy. I think the polls are more entertainment than science, and I'm not ready to bring out the champangne yet--far from it. Anyone actually putting all their faith in these polls at this time and juncture is a Pollyana. The polls are showing a Kerry landslide, but I don't buy it, even though there's nothing that would make me happier. Too many states I'm seeing as "blue" could very easily be "red" on Election Day. And I keep hearing that Kerry will destroy Bush in the debates, but I remember hearing that Gore would do the same, four years ago. Hopefully, Democrats won't underestimate Bush this time around. Bush isn't as dumb as most Democrats think he is--he is quite savvy, politically speaking, and probably nothing makes him happier than to let people think he's clueless. It's all part of his strategy, which managed to work in his favor during the last election. I'll wait to do my celebrating when it's official that we've elected John Kerry, but not a moment sooner.
Posted by: Pepe at August 8, 2004 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The news about the credibility of Florida elections just keeps getting more troubled. Now I myself am a Miami voter and I'm definitely mailing in my Kerry absentee ballot ( I live in SC. I'm photocopying my vote and then mailing it using certified mail. ), but I'd be more comfortable if people could come up with strategies that don't depend too heavily on Florida.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 8, 2004 09:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I say, "Screw redemption." Just beat 'em.
Posted by: David in NY at August 9, 2004 11:37 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with my doppleganger: Victory in 2004 will be more than enough redemption. Now if only we could get Max Cleland back his Senate seat, then I'd feel complete.
Posted by: DavidNYC at August 9, 2004 05:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Someone finally did a poll of Hawaii. :-)
http://www.starbulletin.com/2004/08/09/news/story4.html
The results are a little disconcerting. Gore blew Bush away there in 2000, but this poll has Kerry leading only 48% to 41%. But the stats behind this poll look fishy. Only 449 people were polled for it.
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 9, 2004 08:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment