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Sunday, August 22, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 22
Posted by Chris BowersPopular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.42
Bush: 46.58
Other: 2.00
Status: Lean Kerry
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 213 solid
Bush: 211, 133 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, OH and WV to Kerry
States Projected Under 3 Points: AZ, AR, CO, NV, NC and TN (56); MO, OH, WV and WI (46)
I am going to try something new with the GECC and allocate the undecideds 60/40 in favor of Kerry in accordance with my research on the topic. Also, I will fix the third-party vote at 2%. Even though both numbers are based on significant statistical findings, they are still both estimates.
The Electoral College projection is becoming static at 327-211 in favor of Kerry. At this stage of the race, that is a very good sign for the challenger.
Posted at 03:30 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
The Electoral College projection is becoming static at 327-211 in favor of Kerry.
Just by way of comparison, 8 of the 42 estimates I checked stood at 316-222 (which was the mode for this iteration of my survey). Only 3 (you and two others) had 327-211, and only 1 site gave Kerry more (332-206). This could mean that you're ahead of the curve and the other sites have yet to catch up to you, or that you're at the upper end of the range and will start to come down. (Of the two other 327 sites, one went up to 327, and the other came down to it.)
My feeling is that Kerry's numbers will come down a little as a result of the RNC, but not so much as to put Bush ahead. (That, in fact, is what the survey seems to indicate happened this week.)
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 22, 2004 10:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Things are looking up. I believe that this round of Zogby results from battleground states reflects a backlash to the first Swift Boat ad. Initially, that ad had a small negative effect. The recent poll results, however, came out after voters had a chance to digest the ad and responses to it. It was debunked and the public apparently recognized it, as Kerry seems to be back to the lead he held before the effect of the ad. Unfortunately, this is not true in OH and FL. That's the bad news. The good new is that it looks like Kerry will win if he can take any one of VA, AZ, NC, CO, MO, AR, TN, OH, FL, or NV+WV. Bush must win all of them to win! According to Zogby, Kerry currently leads in MO, AR, TN, and NV and is in striking distance in the others. (Zogby's results for AZ, CO, NC, and VA will be published tomorrow.)
If Bush doesn't pull even after his convention, He's done, barring a major mistake by Kerry or the dreaded October surprise.
Posted by: Randy at August 23, 2004 11:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Too bad the election isn't being held today. I have a feeling come November, it's going to be a lot closer than this!!
Posted by: Pepe at August 24, 2004 06:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Dan at November 12, 2004 04:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment