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Friday, August 27, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, August 27
Posted by Chris Bowers(8/25 Results in parenthesis)
National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.43 (51.83)
Bush: 47.57 (46.67)
Status: Toss-up
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 281, 180 solid (322, 211)
Bush: 257, 142 solid (216, 142)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, MO, NV, OH, TN and WI for Bush (63); FL and ME CD-2 for Kerry (28)
Ouch. The halcyon days of the last two months appear to be over, and Kerry's wide lead is no more. In fact, this scenario has every possibility to turn into another Florida recount disaster. While Kerry still leads among states projected by more than three points, 243-194, that advantage could be wiped out by the Republican convention. It is highly likely that Kerry will drop below 50 in the national popular vote projection for the next two or three weeks. Bush will probably be ahead for some of that time.
Such is the ebb and flow of the campaign. During April and May, Bush experienced an unbroken string of bad news: Richard Clarke, the April Iraqi uprising and Abu Ghraib. In early May Kerry took his first post-Super Tuesday lead and held it until early June when the Bush team played Reagan's death perfectly by pulling all campaign stops, thereby forcing Kerry to do the same. This resulted in a dearth of political news to report except Reagan's death, and what Wonkette aptly named "Gipperporn." For a couple of weeks, Bush pulled even and even inched ahead. However, once Regan was buried, the VP speculation began full-force, and with the selection of Edwards, the build-up to the convention, the convention itself and Kerry's post-convention cross-country tour, Kerry soared back to the same peak he achieved in early June. However, once Kerry's tour was over and the Olympics started the SBL crap became the order of the day, and Bush has once again closed the gap.
Posted at 01:25 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
I feel a slight disturbance in the force.
This is bad news but hopefully we will overcome. I was happy to see Kerry really fight back yesterday. Not only did he challenge Bush to weekly debates (like Bush's handlers are that stupid) he also pointed out Bush's flip flopping. All I can say is, ABOUT FREAKIN TIME. He should have hit that the moment the Bush ads started. But as long as he hits it now, it should diffuse the damage done already.
Posted by: Michael at August 27, 2004 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm sure the swing boat veterans are beside themselves with glee. They set out to destroy Kerry's credibility and it has been working. Apparently the ads ran consistently in WI, WV, and OH and Kerry dropped 5-8 points in those states! Kerry needs to hammer away hard at Bush over the next few months. I hate to say this but the Democrats need to be as dirty and keneiving as the Republicans.
Posted by: Peter at August 27, 2004 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It does look bad for Kerry right now, but things can change. In June, people were saying that George Bush would capitalize on Reagan's death and cruise back into the White House. But his lead fizzled and Kerry went into the lead. If he can get the media spotlight on himself and his policies, John Kerry should be able to bring those numbers back up.
Posted by: Dale at August 27, 2004 03:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush: 47.57 (41.67)
Fair jump.
Posted by: anon at August 27, 2004 03:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I wish the Kerry campaign would be on the flip-flopper thing earlier. And they should use it like they have never heard Bush use it before. Make it their own because the record will just tear Bush down.
I'm nervous and will undoubtedly get more nervous as Bush gets his convention bounce. But I think things still look good.
Posted by: seamus at August 27, 2004 04:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry needs to fight back and fight back hard
before its too late. This White House will do
anything to win no matter how low or dirty and
the sad fact is that its working.
Posted by: John at August 27, 2004 04:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think that you guys are way too sensitive to the week-to-week polling. A lot can (and will) happen between now and election day. The fact that Bush has pulled even and will probably get a 5 or so point lead after the convention will all be moot by the time the debates start.
Once a few of these "swift boat" group stories are refuted, the polling #s will revert and, going forward, people will discount ANYTHING critical of Kerry's Vietnam service for a while. Good thing that this is going on NOW and not in early November.
Posted by: Jason at August 27, 2004 04:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As a Deaniac, I was burying Kerry with glee back in December. I bit premature I am sorry to say. Kerry is not so easy to bury.
One thing that may happen that I will break my decision how much I should contribute this year and I will send some dough to moveon to counter swift boat liars, and that there will be 100,000 of us. And surely there will be more. We are not passive observers in this election cycle.
Posted by: piotr at August 27, 2004 05:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have written for many weeks here on this forum that folks were too optimistic about Kerry cruising to an easy victory in November. Our personal feelings about George Bush are not enough to remove him from office. I have said all along, the polls don't tell us anything about what will happen on Election Day. Right now it's not looking good, but fortunately, November is still over a month away.
Now Kerry is in the political fight of his life. He best get his act together and articulate himself clearly and consistently to the American people, and not let lies like those in the Swift boat ads go unchecked for so long without responding to them. I don't know if people will forget the Swift boat ads--I think for some people (like my father, a veteran) they may have done their damage and they're going to stick.
I have also said if Kerry doesn't win in either MO, OH or FL, he will not win the election. Right now it's looking more and more like an uphill battle to win them. If Kerry now has to start defending states like WI and IO well, I don't even want to think about it. This election is far from over, and the debates are looming more important than ever in helping to determine in which direction this anything-but-predictable race is headed. Fasten your seatbelts, cause it's going to be a bumpy ride, indeed!
Posted by: Pepe at August 27, 2004 07:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Things have gotten a little scarier....
CNN now projects (based solely on Gallup polls, I'm sure - as they never seem to use anything else) that Kerry will get 264 to Bush's 274. This is disheartening, since not too long ago we had leads in both OH and FL, and now - neither.
I also think that the numbers showing TN and NV in our court and CO being tied are too optimistic. I believe all three will go to Bush.
If we can get at least one of FL, OH or MO, we're fine. But I'm a little worried. This swift boat crap has distracted the whole country. I hope Kerry plays his cards right and creams Bush during the debates. I also hope (and this will sound horrible, but...) they don't magically find bin Laden right before the election.
Why, in one week, did we lose WV, FL, OH, and maybe WI? That seems fishy. It just goes to show that polling is a very unreliable indication.
I believe deep down that we'll keep WI - why would any state which voted for Gore last time vote for Bush this time? And we may still reclaim WV as a blue state if Kerry doesn't completely ignore the voters there, like Gore did. But still, picking up only WV and NH would lead to a tie, that would be settled by the Republican-run House.
I hope we pour a lot of effort into OH and MO...I know OH is having a paper trail, but it will be tight anyhow. If we can get a lot more blacks and Jews to vote in FL this time, we'll be okay in the Sunshine State. I still think they won't succeed in stealing FL this time because of all the extra protections that will be there on November 2.
And why isn't Edwards making a huge difference for Kerry in the South? AR and TN, the swingiest states in the south besides FL, still look red to me.
I'm going on and on, because I'm a little worried. Things were looking a lot better last week - but hopefully we'll still be on top come November 2.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 27, 2004 10:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, despite this bit of bad news, this poll might make people feel better. It looks like the Kerry counter-attack on Bush and SBVFT is working. At the very least, this shows that the wound is starting to scab over. Weather the bounce, and keep hitting Bush's record, Bush's flipping (which relates to his record) and tout your plans and we will see a flip. CNN has Bush up 274-264 in the EV. However, they note FL, NV, OH, and MO are very close for Bush and WI, MN, and IA are very close for Kerry. While a NV flip will not help, an OH, MO or FL flip might. As Pepe points out, one of these three will be the turning point. If Kerry can take one, I think he will win; if not, this will be close. At this point, I guess we just have to sit and wait for the convention to finish. I hope Kerry doesn't go on vacation like Bush did during the Dem COnvention. Even if the press doesn't cover much, it would be a great time to hit the Big 3 swing states.
Just my thoughts..
Posted by: Michael at August 27, 2004 10:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Economy, Economy, Economy, Economy, Economy!!!
I think Kerry's numbers are scaling back a bit not because the Swift Boat ad nonsense has changed people's minds about him, but because it has forced the campaign off message. We need to get back to talking about two million Bush job losses, four million Americans losing their health insurance under George Bush, nearly 1.5 million children thrown into poverty during the Bush presidency. President Bush has the arguably the worst presidential record in history, and we should pin it on him over and over and over again.
People don't care all that much where Kerry and Bush were 35 years ago; they care about their jobs and families and what the future holds. I utterly detest the Bush administration and the harm its inflicted on the country, but the way to defeat it is to remind Americans that the Swift Boat nonsense is just a distraction from the worst record in presidential history.
Kerry will right this ship, but he needs to move the discussion from the ads back to the economy. If he does, I think he'll win comfortably.
Posted by: Paul at August 27, 2004 10:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hey Chris,
Where did you find polling information on Maine's second CD?
Posted by: CrackRabbit at August 28, 2004 12:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
yeah i'd like to hear more about the maine results...i thought we were pretty much a safe bet for the blue column....
i already cast my 'blank absentee ballot request form' because i'm leaving for russia for the year on monday...
Posted by: scott at August 28, 2004 12:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The scariest thing I heard is that no incumbent has lost polling this high this late in the game. I think that's why Bush is looking so cocky all of a sudden. I fear that the apathetic less affluent voter will have to be rocked by another four years of sheer economic disaster before they go to the polls. I hope Kerry shows something new and different pretty soon.
Posted by: Deb at August 28, 2004 11:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Funny how it is dirty what the Reps do, but it is okay when the Dems do it through Moveon.org, etc.
BTW - the latest polls has Bush ahead in FL and PA too. And these were before the RNC.
Posted by: SOH at August 28, 2004 11:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For some upbeat news, check out the Economist/YouGov poll at http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2907805. YouGov has an excellent track record (which they post at the site), as well as an enormous sample size(over 1600 likely voters). They show Kerry ahead by about 4-5%, Bush's approval rating is below 50%, as well as the percentage of people who feel that the country is on the right track.
Posted by: joe at August 28, 2004 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anyone have any thoughts about absentee votes? Do the polls track those as well. Are there polls that try to use them as predictors?
Posted by: Anthony at August 28, 2004 07:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I feel more positive reading that Economist poll, and several other things. I think CNN's poll is just a little pessimistic.
The news channels are making the election sound very gloomy for the Democrats...but it's still an awfully close race, and the debates haven't started yet.
I'm also thinking that if we take back control of the Senate, who's president won't matter as much...Bush had a much harder time spreading his poison when Congress was mostly Democratic.
I still have trouble believing Bush is ahead in FL when two weeks ago Kerry was ahead (outside of the margin of error, even!) there. OH is still impossible to call. Something tells me that MO is going red this year, but if Kerry/Edwards can register enough voters in spots like Miami and northeast OH, it won't be a problem.
I also hope they don't completely ignore NV, CO, TN or AR - we may not win them, but a little effort won't hurt. I have a bad feeling, however, that we might have lost WV, since the state is conservative anyway - and I think the reason WV is looking red now is not only because Bush exploits their moral beliefs, but also because many veterans there were upset by the (mostly false) Swift Boat ads. So, WV may no longer be a blue state, I'm afraid...it's only 5 electoral votes, though.
Meanwhile, it seems to me that long term, TN, AR, CO and NV may be becoming blue...I also think FL is, as so many baby boomers retire there and blacks move there...the Cubans actually are looking less Republican this time, since they were so fired up about Elian Gonzalez last time...and Puerto Ricans are usually Democrats.
I read a nice article about CO that suggests the state is moving into being bluer. This is the first election in recent times that it is being called a swing state, and several polls now show the state to be an absolute toss-up.
Speaking of CO, how is Salazar v. Coors looking?
In fact, I think we should start posting news about congressional and governor races as well as the presidential one.
Obviously, Obama v. Keyes is a slam dunk...since I'll be moving to IL, this one thrills me.
And Knowles v. Murkowski is still in our favor, correct? Have any polls been done on the Carson v. Coburn race in OK?
Since Zell Miller is basically a Republican, us losing that seat in GA doesn't bother me...ever since they smeared Cleland, I've been fairly apathetic about GA.
Outside of GA, it seems that the only strong Republican takeover in the Senate will be in SC...whereas we seem to have IL, CO, AK, and maybe OK coming our way...and while the Republicans will probably keep Arlen Spector's seat in PA, it looks like Barbara Boxer's CA seat is safe as well (yay!); we also seem poised to keep the NC seat that used to belong to Edwards.
How is Daschle looking in SD?
Obviously, I've been following Senate races closely...I need to look up House and Governor races as well though.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 28, 2004 07:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The problem with the news channels is that since they are, in many ways, entertainment, they need to make as much out of a story as possible. Hence, all the handwringing about a few polls showing Bush moving ahead. The problem with portraying any sort of scientific endeavor on TV news, is that any scientist worth the name hedges their bets, making it appear that there is more of a debate than there often is in the scientific community. Also, not all research is of equal quality. Many reporters will give equal time in order to achieve "balance," which only confuses the issue. Global warming is an excellent example of this fact. The Columbia Journalism Review wrote an excellent article on this failing of the journalism field recently.
Science moves by gradually building up evidence, often followed by rapid change in overall opinion. I think it is obvious how this does not play well in a rapid, always on, 24-hour new cycle.
Posted by: joe at August 28, 2004 10:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest (8/29) survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites (including Chris Bowers') here.
Executive summary: currently, of the 46 sites surveyed, 28 (61%) show Kerry winning, and 6 others (13%) show him ahead. Nine sites (20%) show Bush winning, and 3 others (7%) show him ahead. Kerry's lead over Bush has eroded considerably from its high of over 300 votes -- he currently averages around 275 votes.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at August 29, 2004 02:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Anthony,
Absentee Ballots from the Military are in full force. The US Military has doubled it efforts and now asks that all VAO (Voting Assitance Officers) make 100% contact with all Soldiers and Sailors. Military votes tend to lean Republican. Kerry is not to well liked among the current military members.
Posted by: SOH at August 29, 2004 05:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with SOH. Where was all the public outcry when Moveon.org and the Radio City Music party, etc. smeared the President? I guess the left can spear but the right can't.
Posted by: David at August 29, 2004 10:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This battle is not about ads...it's about lies.
MoveOn ads are sometimes extreme, I'm sure, however while they often present opinions, they never present LIES. The swift boat ads are brimming with falsehoods.
First of all, the men in that ad DID NOT serve with John Kerry. Second, the doctor who claimed he had treated John Kerry was NOT the doctor who treated Kerry, as the record shows.
Third, Larry Thurlow claimed the swift boats had not been shot at, but several men who were on the boat with Kerry, plus the official document itself, validate Kerry's claim that all the boats were shot at.
Fourth, the second Swift Boat ad which has Kerry accusing fellow veterans of war crimes was altered. Kerry actually said that he had been TOLD BY THE MEN THEMSELVES that they had committed these crimes.
It's not about 527's. I would have disliked this ad, but I wouldn't have advocated getting it off the air if it had been truthful.
Also, if you think Kerry is unfair in accusing the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth of being in bed with the Bush administration, all you have to do is look up the lawyer who resigned on Wednesday...he was connected with both the Swift Boat vets and with the Bush administration. Names escape me, but there are numerous other connections between Karl Rove and the Swift Boat vets.
You also have to know that the man who wrote the book supporting the Swift Boat ads is John O'Neil, who debated Kerry on the Dick Cavett show in 1971 about whether to pull out of Vietnam (and was fairly creamed, as Kerry was a much stronger speaker). Seems to me he still has an agenda about Kerry...watch the tape to see why.
The whole thing is full of corrupt connections, lies, and misquotes.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 29, 2004 10:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Take heart, Kerry supporters.
I remember not so long ago when PA was looking very close to even, and Bush made that far and away the state he visited to campaign most. Net result: PA now comfortably in the Kerry column. Bush is almost as bad at campaigning as he is at being President.
And now Bush has been campaigning heavily in FL.
These are the things that I think are true: Bush really is a chimp; and many voters really are not too stupid to realize that, if they see enough of him. The RNC should have cancelled their convention, if they could have gotten away with it.
It's going to be a very close election, and FL might have ugliness not seen since before the civil rights movement. But Kerry is not in bad shape.
Posted by: Marsden at August 29, 2004 12:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Uh, Marsden, have you looked at the polls lately? Pennsylvania is far from being a sure bet for Kerry according to the latest ones. That said, I expect PA to be in the Kerry column in November, but it certainly isn't comforting to see it suddenly appear to be more in play than it was even a few weeks ago. Pew (8/21) has BUSH (!) up by 1% in PA, Zogby Interactive (8/21) has Kerry up by 8%, and Strategic Vision (8/19) has Kerry up by 4%. Toss out the two extremes and it would appear that Kerry is leading in PA by only about 3% to 4% going into the GOP convention--far from what you consider a state "comfortably in the Kerry column."
Posted by: Pepe at August 29, 2004 01:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
From where I'm standing, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, Arkansas, and maybe Iowa are too close to call, and the information is mixed.
Two weeks ago Paula Zahn was making it big news that Kerry was ahead in Ohio, yet two days ago CNN declared it a red state. Two weeks ago Kerry was strongly ahead in Florida, yet two days ago CNN declared it a red state. Colorado is tied according to the two most recent polls, yet two days ago CNN declared it a red state. Wisconsin is too close to call, yet two days ago CNN declared it a blue state. This data is extremely simplistic and short-term...bad scholarship.
They are so hot about Bush being "ahead", even though the information is very mixed in many swing states. They're so hot to call Florida and Ohio Bush states, they have forgotten that two weeks ago Kerry was ahead in both.
I don't trust CNN's polling now, if they won't even take into account short-term trends.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 29, 2004 01:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Excuse me, ONE week ago Kerry was ahead in Ohio, not two. Sorry about that, but you get my point anyway.
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 29, 2004 01:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think a very important issue is being overlooked that needs addressing: every time polls shift one way or the other, it means that formerly undecided voters have made up their minds. With such a tiny sliver of the populus still undecided (why, I will never understand), their decision will be the difference between a 50.5% win or 49.5% defeat (I'm sticking with those numbers 'till the end). If John Kerry wants to win, he needs to have a multi-tiered attack on Bush which not only comes out hard (and if necessary negative) on him, but gives voters reason to vote for Kerry. If he can win over enough of the undecideds, he will win the election.
Posted by: Dale at August 29, 2004 08:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
anyone get the feeling that all the media is working for bush? i keep hearing about the liberal media but they fed the swift boat frenzy. kerry should hold a press conference about the sbt, answer a bunch of questions and then afterwards say this is the last time i will address this matter. also wouldn`t hurt to apoligize for his anti-war statements as an indiscretion of youth.otherwise he is a goner.also talk only about the crappy economy,because bush can get by on his likability.
if bush wins we are in for 4 terrible years possibly leading to unrest in the streets at least thats my opinion.
Posted by: JOEL at August 29, 2004 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i keep hearing about the liberal media but they fed the swift boat frenzy.
Actually, I think the mainstream media largely ignored the story until they couldn't ignore it any longer. The reason? You're looking at it! The internet and all the blogs (as well as talk radio) have made it impossible for the mainstream media to ignore stories like this, stories that take on a life of their own and refuse to go away. I have no doubt that in the pre-internet days, the mainstream news networks and press would have surely (and rightly) ignored this swift boat nonsense.
Posted by: Pepe at August 29, 2004 09:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nathaniel:
You should not put much in the CNN analysis since it leans liberal. They say what they think their viewers want to hear. (e.g. Paula Zahn stating that Kerry was ahead in Ohio). Try www.realclearpolitics.com. It report polls from various sources. I have also heard that West Virginia is really leaning Bush now.
Posted by: David at August 29, 2004 09:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
SOH,
I disagree with you on the military this election. Yes, historically they vote republican, however, while most of the upper people are anti Kerry, many rank and file are very ABB right now due to the tactics in Iraq. Tactics I am referring to is backdoor drafting, threatening to send them to Iraq if they don't re-enlist etc. I have many friends and relatives that have been fighting in Iraq and many have become ABB and will vote Kerry cause they are pissed.
Yes, I do think Bush will pull a majority of Military, BUT I don't think it will be even close to the same margin as 2000. In a close election, that may make a huge difference.
Posted by: Michael at August 29, 2004 11:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rasmussen - (8/26/04 ending) OHIO Kerry +2%
Posted by: Chuck at August 29, 2004 11:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
IMO, the reason those Swift Boat ads were so effective was that Kerry'd already gotten in people's craw with that constant puffing himself as such a big war hero. It was insufferable and its been insufferable for over a year. In the electorate, and not just Republicans, there was some satisfaction in seeing Kerry get taken down a peg.
Really, 4 months in Vietnam 35 years ago and saving someone's life (Did he have a choice? Could he have left Rassman there?) are not credentials to run for president and its an insult to the voters that Kerry made so much of himself.
Posted by: Arlo at August 29, 2004 11:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Believe it or not, with 200,000 or so protesters descending on NYC (far outnumbering GOP delegates), this COULD be affecting the polls, since these people are not at home to answer pollsters. Probably another 200,000 more NYers (than usual in August) have left town to avoid the whole thing (again, mostly Dems).
With roughly 100 million people voting in the last election, that would only amount to just 0.3% of voters -- hardly enough to have a significant effect. But that assumes this group is no more likely to answer surveys than the general population (I doubt that). Bush enjoyed a similar weekend bump in the polls during the pro-choice march in DC in April.
Posted by: Jason at August 30, 2004 12:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Do you really think there are over 400,000 protestors in NYC right now? The largest number that I have heard is 100,000. From the pictures I've seen, it's much smaller than what I think anyone was expecting. Out of 100,000, I would think at least half are New Yorkers, so only about 50,000 would be coming from outside of NYC, and I would bet most of those are from neighboring states. How many people from outside NYC can get away from their jobs or their classes and to go to NYC and protest for a week? I thought there would be many more protestors from NYC itself, but so far, it hasn't materialized. Maybe they're waiting for Bush on Thursday.
Posted by: Pepe at August 30, 2004 06:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Whats to protest anyway? The Democratic candidates are as pro-War as Bush, Edwards maybe even MORE pro-war and he's a fancy pants who sure never put himself in harms way. Lets compare Edwards to Bush's Guard Service if Bush's Guard service is so terrible. I deplore Bush and what he's done with his wars but face it, folks, the Democratic Party didn't put up anything better and they've shown their hypocrisy and contempt for the people with the "Kerry was a Vietnam hero" nonsense after all those years of saying it didn't matter that Clinton used political influence to get out of military service entirely.
Maybe what we're seeing in the polls isn't just those swift boat ads. Maybe its the electorate giving up and tuning out. I'm at the point where I don't care who wins and I never thought I'd feel that way about this election.
It mystifies me why Democrats run around yelling "talk about healthcare! "Talk aboutthe economy!" when they get in trouble as they've gotten in trouble with this Vietnam stupidity. The public won't pay more taxes for "healthcare;" that was rejected 10 years ago. And now, the public won't go for tax increases that they fear will go to fund more wars. I'd much rather see the deficit run up than throw more money at the military and wars on Middle Eastern countries.
Posted by: Harry at August 30, 2004 08:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In follow-up on the # of protesters . . . in today's paper, the organizers estimated the turnout at 500,000, while the NYPD estimates it at 120,000 (which is probably closer to the truth). But that was just at ONE march on Sunday (there was another big one on Saturday), and there will be protests going on all week.
I guess a good test would be how Nader fared -- if Nader slipped along with Kerry, then it's probably a sampling issue; if not then I stand corrected. Anyway, this wouldn't explain ALL of the bounce, just a bit of it. Mostly, I think it's the weekly ebb and flow.
Interestingly, the day AFTER the convention, Aug. employment statistics come out -- if they're weak, it should be interesting.
Posted by: Jason at August 30, 2004 10:30 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Another interesting issue will concern polling just after the convention, in an attempt to quantify the GOP bounce. Polling on Labor Day Weekend could be extremely unreliable, with so many people on the road.
Posted by: science at August 30, 2004 10:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Interestingly, the day AFTER the convention, Aug. employment statistics come out -- if they're weak, it should be interesting."
I agree, however, I don't think it will kill a Bush bounce, since any polling may not take it into account. HOWEVER, hopefully negative news will lead to a week 2 impact.
Posted by: Michael at August 30, 2004 12:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: Roy at November 12, 2004 07:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment