Swing State Project

This is bad news for Bush: He won CO by over 8 points last time around. However, it's still early, and I still don't predict CO to wind up in our camp. But the good news for our side is that Kerry leads among Hispanics by 66-24 in this poll, meaning that Bush is way below his target of 35% in this demographic. Kerry also leads among indies, 49-38.

One related note: The Senate race between Democrat Ken Salazar and Republican Pete Coors is also in a virtual tie, with Coors at 48% and Salazar at 47%. I don't know much about the specifics of this race, but I would tend to think that a tie at this point benefits Salazar slightly. I say this because the outgoing Senator (Campbell) is a Republican, and I expect there to be an anti-incumbent/anti-GOP swing across much of the nation.

And to follow up on what Chris said the other day, I think the GOP is in a lot of trouble long-term. In 2012 or 2016, how will the GOP be able to compete when CO, VA, AZ, NV, NH and maybe NC (and maybe even GA) are all lean-blue, and FL, NM & OR are solid blue? Even if IA, WI, MN and OH head their way long-term, we come out with a big advantage. I'm starting to think that Teixeira & Judis really are right.

Posted at 12:57 PM in Colorado | Comments (31) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Open Thread - and Blogads Are Here (Almost)

If you're reading this post, then you've probably already noticed that the SSP has a slightly new look. The new column on the left will host Blogads, as soon as advertisers start filling orders. The re-design is courtesy of my good friend Ben, who is a top-notch web designer and graphic artist. This modest site isn't a worthy showcase of his talents, so if you are thinking about building or re-doing a website (or know anyone else who is), I highly recommend you check out Ben's company, Media Mezcla.

I also moved all my junk down to my new apartment in DC (hooray!) & I'm now vacationing for a few days before school starts. Please feel free to use this as an open thread.

Posted at 06:45 PM in Site News | Comments (19) | Technorati

Colorado EV-Splitting Initiative is on the Ballot

Via Kos, it looks like the Colorado initiative to split its electoral votes proportionately has succeeded in getting on the ballot for this fall. If the measure passes, it would apply starting this election. As we've discussed here before, this move - while a short-term boon for Kerry - would likely be bad for the Dems long-term. That's because it would start an arms race where Republicans lean or safe Dem states would try the same thing. I could easily imagine a similar initiative getting on the ballot - and winning - in California.

And as the article indicates, it may not even be so great short-term. There would almost certainly be legal battles over the initiative if it proves decisive in the election. The most obvious avenue of attack is pretty simple: The U.S. Constitution provides that state legislatures choose the method that electoral college members will be appointed. Though my understanding is that the CO constitution defines the legislature's will pretty broadly - ie, the legislature created the ballot initiative system, hence it can choose to delegate its authority - I could easily imagine a big fight over this.

Colorado has nine EVs this year. This measure would pretty much automatically give us four of those votes. While the possibility of the initiative passing will surely make Bush sweat in search of four new EVs, we don't want to win this way. Obviously, we want to win as big as we can. But if it's going to be close - and I still think it will be - we want Kerry's election to be as "legit" as possible. Yes, Bush won a stolen election that was about as illegitimate as it gets. But we all know that, thanks to the GOP and their media abettors, there's a huge double-standard that overlooks this kind of thing when it decisively benefits the Republicans but excoriates the Democrats if it even appears to benefit us in the slightest.

P.S. Gotta love the name of the GOP-backed group opposing this measure: Coloradans Against a Really Stupid Idea. They happen to be right, but they have no idea why.

Posted at 06:25 PM in Colorado | Comments (29) | Technorati

Four New Swing States

Zogby has declared that four new states--Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia--are now swing states and will be included in future Zogby Interactive Battleground polls.

Sweet! Not only does this show weakness in Bush's base, we will all be treated to regular polls from these four states. This will also help to reinforce the emerging conventional wisdom that Bush is in a lot of trouble in this campaign.

As a testament to David's determination, he had never given up on these states, listing them as swing all along. It is forward thinking people like that who will be the backbone of a more aggressive Democratic Party in the years to come.

Georgia and Louisiana remain the final frontiers.

Posted at 04:29 PM in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia | Comments (22) | Technorati

State-by-State Odds of Kerry Victory

Using the post-Edwards poll information provided by mattb25 in a recent diary over at Dailykos, I have combined it with the information I collected during my investigation into the Incumbent Rule. The resulting numbers are estimates of the chance Kerry would have to win every state if the election were held tomorrow. If a state is not listed, that is because the odds of victory are either 100% or 0%. If a state is listed that Matt did not list, I did the poll calculations myself:

Chance of Kerry Victory By State
Pennsylvania: 98%
New Hampshire: 89%
Wisconsin: 89%
Minnesota: 89%
Hawaii: 88%
Florida: 80%
Iowa: 79%
Maine: 77%
Missouri: 73%
Nevada: 59%
Tennessee: 59%
West Virginia: 59%
Ohio: 55%
Arizona: 37%
Arkansas: 37%
North Carolina: 20%
Colorado: 10%
Virginia: 10%
South Carolina: 4%

Without these states, Kerry has 204 and Bush 134. At 88% or higher, Kerry���s states equal 253 electoral votes. At 73% or higher, Kerry���s states equal 302 electoral votes. At 55% or higher, Kerry���s states equal 343 electoral votes. Florida, with an 80% chance of a Kerry victory, puts him over 270.

This is crude, but it is a start. As soon as I finish the Access database with a complete list of around 600 final polls in races with well-known incumbents that compares the polls to the election results, I will hopefully be able to calculate these percentages with far greater accuracy.

Posted at 12:43 AM in General | Comments (28) | Technorati

Sunday, August 15, 2004

Movin' on Down

Tomorrow (Sunday) I move back down to DC to embark on my second year of law school. As I've mentioned before, this is going to be a very busy time for me: Moving into my new apartment, early interview week, the beginning of classes, and starting journal work. I found out recently that I won a spot on the Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, so I'm very happy about that. I also finally got my EIW interview list - I wound up with interviews at 12 of my top 15 picks, so that's good news as well.

So please bear with sporadic posting from me for the next little while. I'll try to toss up some open threads when I can, and please feel free to post any new polls in any of the existing threads, even if they cover different states.

Posted at 12:15 AM in Site News | Comments (6) | Technorati

Saturday, August 14, 2004

NC Gets Even Closer

The Raleigh News & Observer just released a new North Carolina poll, taken around a week after the convention (likely voters, early July - post-Edwards - in parens):

Kerry: 45 (44)
Bush: 48 (49)
Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

Though the margin has shrunk, it's all still well inside the MoE. The difficulty here, though, is that Bush still has a pretty high favorability rating, 53-38 (though he was at 57-37 in January). His job performance rating isn't quite so good, with only 49% rating him excellent or pretty good and 51% saying only fair or poor. Nonetheless, I think with numbers like these, it may be pretty hard to get undecideds to break our way.

John Edwards' job performance, however, has markedly improved, from 49-44 in January to 57-35 in this poll, so he might actually help the ticket more as time goes on. And on a key local question - "Has President Bush done enough to protect furniture, textiles and other manufacturing industries from foreign trade?" - only 34% say yes and 59% say no. This means that a good chunk of Bush's Republican base thinks he's done a shoddy job on this issue. In recent years, the Dems have had some success in pushing local issues in red states (I'm thinking South Dakota & Louisiana in particular), so this might be our opening.

A side-note: Kerry will be in the Charlotte area on Friday. And for those of you who thought the GOP wasn't taking the Dem threat to this state seriously, Team Bush is opening up a campaign office in Raleigh.

(Thanks to reader Chris.)

Posted at 04:15 PM in North Carolina | Comments (14) | Technorati

Following Up

Two stories in the NYT caught my eye today, because they both relate to issues that we discussed here in the past week or so. The first is this piece on how various state-level anti-gay marriage amendments might increase the pro-Bush turnout. The state most likely to be affect by this is - sigh - Ohio.

The other is a long-ish feature piece on how the Bush administration has quietly used its regulatory rule-making powers to reward its corporate friends. Due to the national focus on Iraq & terrorism, nearly all of these changes in adminstrative law have happened outside of the public view. The director of the Sierra Club says that when people are told about these changes in focus groups - which include things like allowing already-fatigued truckers to drive even longer shifts - they can scarcely believe them. I'm not surprised.

Also, the NYT continues its series on the swing states - they are now up to Wisconsin. I particularly love the county vote maps.

UPDATE: David Sirota has more on the issue of big business & regulation in a new piece in The Prospect.

Posted at 03:59 PM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, August 14

(8/7 results in parenthesis)

National Two Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 51.80 (52.99)
Bush: 48.20 (47.01)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 327, 220 solid (312, 231)
Bush: 211, 133 solid (226, 118)
States Chaing Party Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NH, OH and WV to Kerry
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AR, NV and NC for Bush (26); MO, NM, OH, WV and WI for Kerry (51)

As happens fairly frequently, even though one candidate, in this case Kerry, went down in the national two-party vote projection, he went up in the electoral vote projection. Kerry took back Ohio but lost Nevada, even though Bush gained significantly in the national vote projection with the removal of the July 30-August 1st post-convention polls from the dataset. Bush did solidify his electoral base, however, pushing GA back to solid red, and pushing AZ, CO, LA, TN and VA back above the 3.0 daner line. The opposite happened to Kerry, as Maine's 2nd congressional district and Minnesota lost their solid status, while New Mexico and Wisconsin moved into the danger zone.

Even though Bush is still close, considering that undecideds usually break for the challenger, his position is not very strong at all. Any state not in "solid" Bush territory is ripe for a Kerry pickup.

I have updated the Methodology for these projections over at MyDD.

Posted at 03:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (3) | Technorati

Friday, August 13, 2004

A Schrader Campaign Scoop, Courtesy of Chris

Intrepid blogger & cattle caller Chris Bowers has taken yet another leap into the world of real reporting, and he has a pretty big scoop. If you'll recall, the entire staff of Rep. Rodney "Benedict Arnold" Alexander quit en masse last week after he switched over to the Republican Party. It turns out that Alexander's chief of staff, a fellow named Brian Smoot, will be coming over to the Schrader campaign. It's not every day that a seasoned Hill staffer becomes available for new work, so this is a pretty big coup for a fledgling campaign.

In related news, Ginny finally has an opponent - Bucks County Commissioner Mike Fitzpatrick. Kos has the details (cribbed from Congressional Quarterly). Though CQ seems to think that Fitzpatrick is strongly favored, it looks like the Republicans did us a big favor (as they often do): They nominated the one extremist who opposes abortion rights and stem-cell research. (Everyone else looking to run on the GOP side was pro-choice.) Whether in primaries or in behind-the-scenes deals, the GOP regularly puts forward their least electable, most right-wing guys.

Look at what happened in California in the 2002 governor's race: Moderate Dick Riordan, who could have easily beaten Gray Davis, lost in the primaries to the hard-right Bill Simon. Simon went on to get beaten by the sad sack Davis in the general. But just a year later, when the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to leapfrog the primary process via the recall election, he beat Davis handily.

The lesson to me here is just blindingly obvious: You want a moderate candidate in a moderate district. I just don't see anti-abortion, anti-stem cell positions doing very well in suburbia. In fact, Fitzpatrick's campaign is already trying to deflect attention from these views. In other words, I think Schrader's in a stronger position than CQ makes her out to be, especially if the DCCC helps her with financing. Hey, maybe they can give her all the money Benedict Alexander is supposed to return to them! In the meantime, we can toss her some coin of our own.

P.S. Chris has also been covering the Hoeffel campaign, so we should be seeing more from him on that topic soon.

Posted at 06:53 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Thursday, August 12, 2004

More Good News for Kerry in Florida

Ah, silly major news organizations. They all but snickered when they determined that Kerry didn't see a post-convention bounce, or a big enough post-convention bounce, or a post-convention bounce that was the size of Moby Dick after an eating binge. Or whatever it was they were looking for. As is typical of our decrepit media, though, they couldn't be bothered to look hard enough, or even in the right places. I say this because the good swing state news (be sure to see Chris's post below) keeps rolling right on in.

Quinnipiac just released a Florida poll today, and it's all smiles (registered voters, late June in parens):

Kerry: 49 (46)
Bush: 42 (44)
Other/Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ��3%)

This is the second poll in the past week or so to show Kerry stretching his lead in Florida. And thanks to the large sample size here (N=1,094), we know that this lead is outside the MoE.

Other highlights: Bush's job approval is way below the Mendoza line at 44-54 (and sinking from June's 46-52). Favorability ratings are also U-G-L-Y for Dubya: 38-43, with 17% saying "mixed." Kerry's in positive territory at 39-31-21, and again, his numbers have improved since June (30-33), again demonstrating that Bush's plan to drive up Kerry's unfaves has moved into Edsel territory. Only 10% of respondents say they are "very satisfied" with "the way things are going in the nation today." And finally, 49% of people say that the war in Iraq was the "wrong thing" while 45% say it was the right thing.

Florida's late Senate primary is coming up soon (Aug. 31st). Polling indicates that Betty Castor is likely to win for the Dems. Any thoughts on what her chances might be, and if Kerry-Edwards might have coattails? (As an aside, I absolutely hate late primaries. We have them in September in New York - just six weeks before the general election - and the only thing they do is provide protection for incumbents, who don't have to face bloody primary battles that last all summer.)

(Q-Poll thanks to reader science in comments.)

Posted at 03:05 PM in Florida | Comments (16) | Technorati

Kerry Kicking Ass in Gore States

(Cross posted from MyDD.)

The number of Gore states that appear vulnerable to Bush pickups in 2004 is rapidly shrinking. Here is a state-by-state rundown of Kerry���s strengths in key Gore states:

Michigan. The last two Survey USA polls out of Michigan showed double-digit leads for Kerry (52-41 and 51-41 three-way). Three consecutive Zogby polls in the state have shown Kerry up by at least 7.5 in three way matchups in the state. However, the coup de grace is the latest EPIC/MRA poll where Bush is down seven in the trial heat at only 42, reaches an astonishing 52% unfavorable rating, (-6 favorable ratio to Kerry���s +10), and registers only 34% right track. I was worried about Michigan for a while, but I am not anymore. The national shift among Muslim-Americans from majority Bush supporters to an almost perfectly solid anti-Bush voting block (3% approval rating among Muslims nationwide) is probably the main cause for this, since Michigan has the largest Muslim population of any state in the country.

New Jersey. A few wags, including Safire and Scheinder, have crowed lately about polls supposedly showing New Jersey to be a toss-up. However, I would simply direct them to the latest Q-poll from the state (Kerry up 52-38, 22 ahead of Bush in favorable ratio), Rasmussen (Kerry up 51-38) Star-Ledger / Eagleton-Rutgers (Kerry up 52-32 and 39 ahead of Bush in favorable ratio) and, best of all, up 52-40 with Bush at 49% unfavorables in the latest out of New Jersey from pro-Republican pollster Strategic Vision. Just like in 2000, New Jersey is deep blue. The FDU poll showing otherwise is either an outlier, poorly done, or both.

New Mexico. New Mexico was the second closest state in 2000, and has consistently been a toss-up for two decades now. However, a number of events have transpired to help Kerry this time around. First, in 2004 ex-felons will be allowed to vote for the first time in decades. Second, Nader is not on the ballot, but Libertarian candidate Badnarik is. Further, Badnarik is running hard in the state, including anti-Bush TV and radio ads. Third, the popular and powerful Bill Richardson is now Governor. Fourth, New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the nation, and since 2000 Latinos have constituted the vast majority of population growth to the point where they are now the largest group in the state. As kos recently pointed out, Bush is losing ground among Latinos this year. There has not been much polling out of New Mexico this year, but what little has dribbled out has been good for Kerry. In early July, ARG showed Kerry up 51-43, and Zogby has shown Kerry ahead in three way matchups with Nader instead of Badnarik. While the two previous Zogby polls showed Kerry with large leads of 8 and 10 points respectively, the latest only shows Kerry up by 2. While this single poll raises cause for concern, at the very least this state is now lean-Dem instead of a toss-up. I will be keeping an eye on future polling to see if the Zogby numbers are confirmed.

Oregon. I have previously written about Kerry���s consistent strong showing in Oregon. The latest Zogby poll showed Kerry���s lead dropping to only 4 points (every other poll for months had shown Kerry up eight or more), but Zogby still includes Nader, who is not on the ballot in Oregon. When Kerry���s lead dropped, Nader���s total went up. Either way, Kerry has been at 50% or higher in every non-partisan poll out of Oregon since early May. When the challenger is at 50% or higher, the well-known incumbent wins less than 2% of the time.

Pennsylvania. Like Oregon, I have previously written about Kerry���s consistent strength in Pennsylvania. Kerry's lead in the state has become so large and been confirmed from so many sources, that in three separate interviews at the convention I saw Ed Rendell asked about it. Since the time I wrote that article, Survey USA has shown Kerry with a 53-41 lead over Bush, the LA Times found Kerry up 48-38 in a three-way matchup, Zogby shows Kerry���s three-way trial heat lead increasing to 8 points, and even pro-GOP Strategic Vision has shown Kerry up 51-43 with Bush at a ���1 favorable ratio and Kerry at +12. Nader will have a close call to make the PA ballot. Kerry is clearly up big here, and the internals make it appear as though his lead will only continue to increase. These numbers certainly make me feel proud.

Washington. All seven non-partisan polls out of Washington since early June have shown Kerry up by at least 7.4 points. Every single non-partisan poll since Dean dropped out has never shown Bush closer than 4, or higher than 45 in trial heats. History shows that when a well-known incumbent is always losing and never above 45, that incumbent loses 100% of the time. Washington is solid blue.

Among Gore states, this leaves only Iowa, Maine���s 2nd CD, Minnesota and Wisconsin vulnerable to Bush pickups. Of course, that is not to say that Kerry looks bad in these states:

In Iowa, only Zogby has had Bush over 46 since Kerry became the presumptive nominee, and right now Zogby only has Bush at 46.1.

Maine���s 2nd CD No info. Pollsters never seem to bother to notice the way Maine dishes out its Electoral Votes.

Minnesota is a reversal of Iowa, as Zogby has shown consistent Kerry strength, but with the exception of the June Rasmussen poll, all others polls since March have shown a close race. Then again, no poll from Minnesota has shown Bush above the 45-point incumbent death line except Strategic Vision, which had Kerry at +16 favorable ratio and Bush at ���2.

Wisconsin is unquestionably Bush���s best chance for a pickup this time around. This was one of Kerry���s poorest primary states, Nader will be on the ballot, and three separate polling organizations since June have shown Bush leading here. Still, Bush has reached 48 or higher only once in Wisconsin, in the consistently pro-GOP Badger poll from late April. While Bush is in the game here, Kerry is still in the stronger position.

So, even in these states where Kerry does not seem to be in an overwhelming position of power, he still looks good. In fact, of the literally hundreds of state polls taken since Super Tuesday, Bush has hit 50 in a Gore state only twice: the Badger poll I just linked where he had 50, and the May 24 Iowa Zogby poll, where Bush was at 50.1. Kerry is extremely well positioned to hold the entire Gore battleground. His position is so strong that he should be able to spend a significant majority of resources working on the 10 electoral votes from Bush states that he needs to win. As Charlie Cook has written, Bush needs to shift the fundamentals of this race to have a chance.

Posted at 01:47 PM in General | Comments (10) | Technorati

Kerry Hits Bush Hard on Yucca Mountain

John Kerry has been taking my advice: On Tuesday, he slammed Bush on the issue of Yucca Mountain while stumping in Nevada. The scientific merits of Yucca nonwithstanding, this issue is a major winner for Kerry in NV, not just because Bush supports building a nuclear waste repository there, but because Nevadans perceive Bush as having betrayed a crucial campaign promise from 2000.

A question for Nevada residents: Have you seen any ads - whether from Kerry or 527s - which specifically reference Yucca?

Don't forget that the last SUSA poll showed Kerry ahead here, and a Mason-Dixon poll also taken in late July had Bush up just 46-43. (He had led by 49-38 in March.) Hopefully we'll see some new polling here soon. I imagine SUSA will hit the state again by the end of the month.

As an aside, I also have to say that I'm pretty amazed that 10,000 - that's ten thousand - people showed up to hear Kerry speak at UNLV in the middle of a very hot August when college kids are still on summer break and many people go away on vacation. (Heck, the Las Vegas Review-Journal says it was 12,000 - but who's counting?)

Posted at 02:26 AM in Nevada | Comments (24) | Technorati

Watching the Predictors

Ed Fitzgerald, a frequent commenter here and proprietor of the Unfutz blog, offers an incomparable meta-survey of just about every single electoral college prediction under the sun, including Chris's GECC. The most recent edition of Ed's electoral college survey shows (unsurprisingly) that virtually everyone with a dog in this fight is predicting a Kerry win at the moment. I like these odds.

Also, if you haven't seen it yet, check out MyDD's interactive electoral map. It's the simplest and quickest I've seen so far, and it also shows each state in proportional size (based, it appears, on this WaPo map). The standard red vs. blue maps make Bush look more powerful than he was in 2000 - but population-wise, of course, we were dead even.

Posted at 02:03 AM in General | Comments (7) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 11, 2004

How Do YOU Rank the Swing States?

It's a debate I have often, both with myself and with others: Which states are the bona-fide top-tier swing states, the real battlegrounds, the swingiest of the swing? I suppose there are a few ways you could define this category: True "toss-up" states which you think are really 50-50 to go either way; states which could flip from 2000 without any other states flipping; states where the most time/money/effort is being spent by the campaigns; close states with the most EVs at stake. But all these ideas get at essentially the same thing.

Put another way, how would you rank the the swing states, from "most swingy" to "least swingy?" At the top of my list, I'd put Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, West Virginia and maybe Nevada & Oregon and then maybe Minnesota. Some states are definitely at the bottom of the list. For example, I can't imagine us winning Arizona but not winning New Mexico. And I can't imagine us losing Washington but winning Oregon.

So how do you rank the swing states?

Posted at 08:30 PM in General | Comments (55) | Technorati

ARG: Wide Kerry Lead in FL

ARG polled Florida last week (likely voters, July in parens):

Kerry: 52 (49)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 6 (4)
(MoE: ��4%)

This latest surge all but pushes Kerry outside of the MoE. Even better are the favorability ratings. Kerry now stands at 54-41, an improvement from last month's 51-44. Bush, meanwhile, stands at at 45-48, and has been trickling downward lately. Perhaps most striking is the fact that back in March, Kerry was at an even 41-41. This indicates that Bush has been unable to push Kerry's unfavorables up at all in five months, despite spending millions of dollars toward that end. As Chris has observed in the past, heightening Kerry's unfavorables seems to be the main plank of Bush's re-election strategy - and it appears to be failing badly, at least in Florida.

The undecideds have all but vanished in this poll, but what few remain definitely cannot be breaking for Bush. Kerry also has a ten-point edge among independents (but they don't seem to be quite the force they are in other swing states, such as Arizona - just 16% of those polled here). And the results are still strong even with Nader - 50-43-2-5 (K-B-N-U) - who may apparently make the ballot here.

Even if Bush were to peel off Iowa & Wisconsin, Kerry-Edwards would still win (270-268) if we win Florida. For Bush to win without Florida, he'd also have to nab a second-tier state (say, MN, OR, or NM - all of which would be reaches for him) in addition to IA and WI. (I'm assuming those are our two most vulnerable states.) Bottom line is that when you run the numbers, it's hard to find a way for Bush to win without Florida.

Posted at 08:20 PM in Florida | Comments (7) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 10, 2004

Nader's Ballot Access Efforts in PA

I took some time last week going through signatures on the petitions submitted by Nader's ballot access team. I, along with a bunch of other volunteers, found plenty of errors, and we were wondering if the Democrats would file suit to challenge the petitions. Well they are, and the odds look pretty good to knock Nader off the ballot.

The Post Gazette is reporting that Nader's coordinators submitted, 45,000 signatures, less than the 50,000 which I had thought. The private verification effort believes that only 10,000 signatures are without dispute. Nader needs slightly more than 25,000 signatures in order to qualify, and if 35,000 signatures are in dispute, he needs to win 45% of the disputed signatures in order to qualify. This could take a while, and I think he'll make it by the skin of his teeth because I know that quite a few signatures violate the letter of the law, but were honestly and reasonably signed by people with their full knowledge of their actions. It will depend on the judge if Nader makes it, and if the judge goes for intent and spirit of the law, Nader will be on the ballot in November.

This AP article via the Pittsburgh Tribune Review seems to make the case a slam dunk as it says:

Pittsburgh lawyer Efrem M. Grail, who challenged Nader's petitions on behalf of seven western Pennsylvania voters, said in his filing that more than 30,000 signatures were invalid because the signers were not registered voters.

If that is the case, there is no way for Nader to make the ballot. This would leave roughly 17,000 signatures of registered voters of whom some percentage will have other problems. I am interpreting this story as a little too much good news, and I believe the quote may refer to 30,000 challengable signatures for all causes, including non-registered voters signing their names.

Posted at 03:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (29) | Technorati

Monday, August 09, 2004

Is Bush Shooting Himself in the Foot in Appalachia?

This NYT story about coal mining regulations has me perplexed. On the one hand, it says that Bush wooed the mining vote in West Virginia in 2000 by promising to roll back environmental restrictions - ie, the kinds of regulations which allegedly were reducing the number of available mining jobs. WV, ordinarily a solid Democratic state, went for Bush - though Al Gore's gun stance (and some speculate, Joe Lieberman's religion) had something to do with it as well.

But now it seems, at the behest of the coal companies, Bushco is determined to roll back mining safety regulations, which are a horse of a much blacker color. The miners themselves - through their unions - are apparently quite opposed to such rollbacks. These anti-regulations, for instance, would permit exposure to even higher levels of coal dust - which is responsible for the dreaded black lung disease - even while OSHA itself is arguing for lower levels.

I can understand why the Bushies want to please their corporate benefactors in the coal industry. But coal executives don't cast too many votes. In order to once again carry a place like WV, Bush will need the rank-and-file - and if he's telling these works to literally eat his dust, I can't see how that's gonna help. And it seems to me that this is now the second time Bush has struck out when trying to win votes by helping a dying smokestack industry in Appalachia - remember steel tariffs, anyone? This news just put OH, PA and WV that much further out of Bush's grasp.

P.S. Environmental regulations - the kind promulgated by, say, the EPA or OSHA - are a key reason why it's so important to have a Democratic president. These sorts of rules can often be strengthened simply by a president's (or agency administrator's) directive, without getting stymed by lobbyists in Congress. And the regulations will get enforced by the president's appointees, who, without a doubt, will be much more vigilant in a Kerry administration than in a Bush administration.

Posted at 12:59 AM in Economy, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia | Comments (28) | Technorati

Saturday, August 07, 2004

Happy Hunting

Thank the maker! I'm back in DC this weekend doing more apartment hunting, and I finally found a place, courtesy of Craig's List. Thanks again to everone who wrote in with suggestions - they were greatly appreciated. Posting will once again be light this weekend, as I am mostly without Internet service. Also, the rest of August (particularly the second half) promises to be pretty busy for me, as I move down to DC and then experience the joys of early interview week. But this site will keep humming along right on through election day.

Posted at 08:59 PM in Site News | Comments (3) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, August 7

(Previous Projections in Parenthesis)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection:
Kerry: 52.99 (53.16)
Bush: 47.01 (46.84)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 231 (312, 235)
Bush: 226, 118 (226, 118)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA (78) for Bush; MO, NV and WV for Kerry (21)

Kerry still looks strong, reaching 48 or higher in all ten post-convention, two-way trial heats. Bush only reaches 48 in one of those ten polls, CNN / USA Today / Gallup. If Kerry is at 48 or higher on election day, Bush will need all of the undecideds to break his way in order to win. As we know, undecideds usually tend to break away from the incumbent.

Kerry enjoys double digit leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Washington, shifting the battleground primarily to states that Bush won in 2000. Kerry is also doing well in Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Oregon, further increasing the pressure on Bush. Among Gore states, only Iowa and Wisconsin seemt to have a realistic chance to defect ot Bush.

If Kerry holds all the Gore states except Wisconsin and Iowa, but he picks up Florida, he wins 270-268. Considering this, the only piece of strategic advice I have for the Kerry campaign, the DNC and pro-Kerry 527's would be to significantly increase advertising in Florida. It is still the most important state, and presents the quickest, surest path to victory. I want Kerry to win, but a victory that does not include Florida loses some of its redemption value.

Posted at 05:49 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Friday, August 06, 2004

Hate Amendment on the Ballot in Several Swing States

As you may know, the state of Missouri voted this week to amend its state constitution to explicitly prohibit gay marriage. (I'm personally of the opinion that these kinds of laws will ultimately run afoul of the federal Constitution's full faith and credit clause, particularly as it relates to the issue of gay divorce - but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this blog.) What's especially distressing - beyond the actual vote - is the fact that turnout was up dramatically. Considering this was an August primary, I'm amazed that 41% of voters came out (when the usual range is 15% to 25%).

This becomes a real problem because similar measures are on the ballot in other swing states this fall: Arkansas, Michigan, Oregon and, yes, Ohio. Everyone expects the vote in Ohio to be especially close this year. I'll be beside myself if we lose that state because hatred and fear drive record numbers of voters to the polls to vote for an abomination of an amendment - and pull the lever for George Bush while they're at it. The Missouri turnout is really troubling. This whole thing could wind up being a big sleeper issue for the GOP.

Posted at 12:15 AM in General | Comments (22) | Technorati

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Shiny Happy Voters

ACT & MoveOn are staging what appears to be a huge concert tour featuring some seriously big-name artists (Bruce Springsteen, Dave Matthews, Pearl Jam, and, yes, R.E.M.) in nine swing states during October. Proceed from ticket sales go to ACT. Seems like an awesome way to make your dollar go to work for the Dems & have a blast at the same time. So get your music on!

UPDATE: This NYT article says that MoveOn members get to buy tickets in advance of everyone else, so you should sign up if you haven't already.

Posted at 04:43 PM in Activism | Comments (8) | Technorati

Putting Zogby Interactive Through the Wringer

In a DKos diary, ProfAlan does the hard work of actually comparing Zogby's "Interactive" poll results with traditional polls. His conclusion? Zogby "acquits itself pretty well." ProfAlan compared Zogby's surveys to those taken around the same time in the same states, and it turns out that Zogby was close to the other pollsters in 10 cases, lean-Kerry in five and lean-Bush in one. This analysis inclines me to take these polls more seriously in the future - though it can be a bit challenging to digest sixteen different results all at once every two weeks.

Posted at 04:24 PM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, August 4

(Yesterday's results in parenthesis)

National Two-Party Vote-Projection
Kerry: 53.16 (53.12)
Bush: 46.84 (46.88)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 312, 235 solid (343, 243)
Bush: 226, 118 solid (195, 127)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH and WV
States Projected by Less Than Three Points: AZ, AR, CO, LA, OH, TN and VA for Bush (78); MO for Kerry (11)

While Bush moved up a bit in the electoral projection by retaking slim leads in OH and TN, as you can see from the "states projected under three points" line, more than one-third of Bush's EV are extremely precarious. Kerry has 301 EV's from states where he leads by more than 3, whereas Bush only has 148 from such states.. In other words, even though Kerry's overall margin dropped, he is in a very strong position right now. And man, with the exception of Ohio, that list of states where Bush is up by less than three reads like a DNC wish list of states where we would hope to be competitive this time around.

Four weeks until Bush's speech at the RNC, and a new phase of the campaign begins. Right now though, things are looking pretty darn good.

Posted at 12:26 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (8) | Technorati

A Quick Note on Rasmussen

Rasmussen has by far the most annoying - and quite possibly silly - polling methodology out there. In fact, I'd almost say Zogby's "interactive" polling is prima facie more sound. Rasmussen polls over the course of a month which, as someone cleverly observed, is not a snapshot but rather a daguerreotype. I'll quickly mention the swing state results he released today, but since the vast majority of the polling was done before the convention, I think they are even more useless this month than in the past.

�Ģ Missouri: 50-46-4 Bush (May: 44-43-13 Bush)
�Ģ North Carolina: 50-45-6 Bush (June: 49-42-8 Bush)
�Ģ Virginia: 49-46-5 Bush (June: 48-45-6 Bush)

I just want to re-iterate: I'm giving these polls short shrift not because they show Kerry losing, but because I have deep reservations about Rasmussen's methodology. If a more traditional pollster showed results like these for NC and VA, I'd actually be quite happy.

(Thanks to glibfidget.)

Posted at 08:30 AM in Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia | Comments (2) | Technorati

SUSA Polls Suggest a Swing State Bounce for Kerry

Hmm... is there evidence of a swing state bounce for Kerry? Check out the polls below & decide for yourselves.

A huge jump for Kerry in Pennsylvania (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 53 (47)
Bush: 41 (46)
Other/Undecided: 7 (7)
(MoE: ��3.7%)

This lead is clearly well outside the MoE. Part of it surely must be because the June sample was split equally between Dems and Republicans (41% apiece), while the August poll was 46% Dem and just 34% GOP. Ruy Teixeira has ably explained why it doesn't make sense to weight polls by party ID - there are a lot of reasons not to do so. (For example, one reason why more Dems might be responding is that there is simply a surge in people identifying as Democrats.) I'd be very curious to see if this trend holds in SUSA's next PA poll.

Meanwhile, Arlen Specter saw a big drop in his support, but challenger Joe Hoeffel seems unable to increase his poll numbers.

Another big jump - and a surprisingly close race - in Tennessee (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 46 (41)
Bush: 48 (51)
Other/Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

Like many other observers, I've mostly written off TN for this election - and for the future - on the presidential level. (Don't get me wrong, though: I definitely think this is a state where we can compete strongly on the congressional level.) Al Gore's residual Tennessee background definitely kept the state closer than it otherwise would have been in 2000, so a poll result like this is certainly a surprise. So I'm still going to follow the "This is just one poll" rule - if you don't, you wind up standing on the ledge of a building because of one wacky New Jersey or California survey which shows George Bush one point behind.

And lastly, good old Washington State, where it's all over but the voting (PDF, likely voters, June in parens):

Kerry: 51 (49)
Bush: 43 (44)
Other/Undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

I've grown pretty convinced that Bush has no shot in WA. It definitely has to be considered a second-tier swing state: If we win it, it doesn't mean we've won the whole thing, but if we've lost it, it almost certainly means we're hitting the Jack. I don't think WA is as hopeless for Bush as LA is for us, but it's approaching that territory.

It also appears that the Senate campaign of one-time giant-slayer Republican George Nethercutt is crashing and burning as well. SUSA shows him down eleven points. It's hard to prise apart cause and effect here, but Bush certainly isn't helping Nethercutt and vice-versa. Speaking of which, an internal poll conducted by the campaign of the incumbent, Sen. Patty Murray, showed Kerry ahead 49-41. (Available on Polling Report.)

Some general notes: SUSA only asks horserace questions, so no favorability ratings for any of these polls. Also, the low number of undecideds may have a lot to do with how SUSA words their questions: "If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for?" (Argh - as a grammar geek, it infuriates me that they say "who" and not "whom," especially since they manage to get the subjunctive "were" right.) Anyhow, I think that wording exerts as much pressure as possible, so it may mask the true number of undecideds. But given that undecideds are expected to break our way, this probably doesn't matter much.

Posted at 08:05 AM in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington | Comments (4) | Technorati

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

AZ: First Traditional Post-Convention State Poll

The Arizona Republic has what appears to be the first traditional (ie, non-Zogby) state poll that was conducted entirely after the convention. And it shows... well, not very much at all. Via Polling Report - no link to any stories yet (likely voters, no proper trendlines):

Kerry: 45
Bush: 48
Other/Undecided: 7
(MoE: 4%)

I say no "proper" trendlines because, once again, there was a prior poll, but it included Nader (before he got bumped off the ballot). That poll, done in June, also showed Bush ahead by three points, 44-41. This development is a bit troubling (and also contrary to my predictions) because undecideds seem to have split evenly between the two candidates, and Kerry appears not to have picked up Nader's 2%.

Of course, this is just one poll. At the same time, though, except for ASU's last poll, most AZ polls haven't shown the race this close. I think AZ is probably just outside of our grasp in a close election, though could be ours with a strong national win.

UPDATE: Reader Phalanges provides a link to the poll.

Posted at 04:06 PM in Arizona | Comments (3) | Technorati

Nader on the PA ballot

I had previously stated that I thought it would be unlikely for Nader to get on the Pennsylvania ballot. I am most likely wrong about that prediction. Yesterday was the deadline for the Nader campaign to submit slightly more than 25,000 valid signatures. The Pittsburgh Post Gazette is reporting that the two Nader ballot access coordinators submitted a bit more than 50,000 signatures. Given that the Liberterian Party and the Constitution Party each submitted roughly 35,000 signatures (to account for the throw-outs), it is extremely likely that Nader will receive enough certified signatures to qualify.

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 02:57 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (8) | Technorati

Weekend Canvassing in Schrader's Back Yard with DFA & ACT

Democracy for America's Mercer County, NJ branch is teaming up with its counterpart in nearby Bucks County, PA and America Coming Together to target voters in Bucks, which is a suburban Philly-area county. They'll be carpooling into PA nearly every weekend from the end of summer until election day. This seems like a great way to reach out to a swing state, and I've heard pretty much only good things about ACT. I haven't yet heard about anyone's field experiences with DFA 2.0, but of course, Deaniacs have always had a strong ground presence.

Mercer County, btw, is the home of Trenton, the state capital. It's around an hour or so from NYC by car, and a little bit more than that via New Jersey Transit, which leaves from Penn Station & is pretty affordable. Of course, I don't know exactly where the group is meeting up, but if you want information, e-mail jmelli, the author of the DKos diary linked above.

UPDATE: D'oh! I can't believe I forgot the most important part (which Chris helpfully reminded me of): This is Ginny Schrader's home territory. And by the way, SSP readers have raised close to $900 for Ginny - let's try to make that $1,000 soon. But if you can't contribute with cash, contribute with your feet!

Posted at 12:13 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, August 3

(July 29 numbers in parens)

National Two-Party Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 53.12 (51.18)
Bush: 46.88 (48.82)
Status: Lean Kerry

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 343, 243 solid (302, 206)
Bush: 195, 127 solid (236, 133)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL, MO, NV, NH, OH, TN and WV (all to Kerry)
States Projected by Less than 3%: AZ, AR, CO and VA for Bush (38); FL, IA, MO, NV, OH, TN and WV for Kerry (86)

Who says there's no bump? Since Kerry's speech, his lead over Bush in unvaforables has risen from 7.4 to 10.2. Also, Bush's job rating has once again dipped into negative territory. Combine these two factors with a removal of Fox from the dataset, and Kerry received a notable bump indeed.

This is Kerry's strongest electoral position since I began making these calculations in April and his second strongest popular vote position during that time. Never before have I projected TN to switch to Kerry. I also cannot remember a time when so many states (11) were projected closer than three points. As Austin Powers would say, it's a pretty swinging country out there right now. Yeah, baby, yeah!

Posted at 10:52 AM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (2) | Technorati

Zogby's Latest Interactive Poll is Up

I can't say I'm the biggest fan of Zogby's "interactive" battleground poll, but people seem to like discussing it, so who am I to stand in the way? The August 2nd edition is out. Some highlights:

�Ģ Eleven of 16 states are within the MoE. Some are real sqeakers separated by less than a point, such as MO.
�Ģ Bush only leads in three states, none outside the MoE (AR, NV, OH).
�Ģ Kerry has outside-the-MoE leads in NH, PA, MI, MN and WA (I think).

Enjoy!

Posted at 12:51 AM in General | Comments (6) | Technorati

Monday, August 02, 2004

Right-Wing Spoiler to Enter PA Senate Race

Via Atrios, we learn that the Constitution Party appears set to offer up an ultra-right-wing challenger to Arlen Specter in PA's Senate race. In Pennsylvania's 1994 gubernatorial race, the Constitution Party candidate pulled a hefty 13%, again against another alleged "moderate" Republican, Tom Ridge, who is now the Homeland Security Secretary. (Ridge still wound up winning over the Dem, 45-40, but don't forget that 1994 was the year of the GOP wipeout.)

Even if this CP guy only winds up pulling a few percent, Joe Hoeffel's day just got a lot better.

Posted at 08:38 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (2) | Technorati

Precinct Level Voting, Turnout and Demographic Data

Fairplan 2000 is a remakrable website that offers uniquely detailed data on the 2000 election and on current demographics. It is a must view for anyone interested in local, targeted voter registration and get out the vote drives. Hell, the information is so amazing, that there is almost no limit to its potential poilitical use.

For example, here is my neighborhood, which you can tell did not turnout to vote in a particuarly higher percentage in 2000, even though it went well over 75% for Gore. That is the story of the Democratic Party around the country, I guess.

This is exactly the sort of tool that self-starting swing state activists activists need.

Posted at 12:15 PM in Activism | Comments (9) | Technorati

It Was a Very Big Month

No summer doldrums have set in - not in the realm of politics, and not at the SSP, either. July was by far our biggest month yet, with close to 65,000 visitors - more than doubling the previous record-setting month of June, which saw 25,000 people stop by. The Edwards announcement brought a big (and apparently permanent) spike of new traffic, and the convention seems set to do the same. Unsurprisingly, this phenomenon has been replicated across the political blogosphere.

I'm always thrilled to see more visitors to this site. As I've often said, I consider this blog to be very much a two-way learning opportunity. Before I set out on this project, I didn't know very much about any of the swing states. But thanks in large part to the commenters here, I've learned a great deal, and I hope the same has been true for readers as well. So I'm thankful to everyone who's dropped by, and particularly those who have left comments. I'm also grateful as always to my guest posters, particularly Chris, who has kept this site humming with the GECC during what has been a very busy summer for me.

Lastly, I want to mention that, as a result of the increased traffic to this site (now averaging over 3,000 visitors per day), Blogads will soon be coming to this site. Though my hope is to make enough money to cover the SSP's operating expenses, that's not my main reason for adding ads. Rather, I think blog readers like the highly targeted nature of Blogads - I've certainly learned about races I might never have otherwise heard of. And by providing another (modestly trafficked) site to the list of places Democratic hopefuls can advertise, we might actually be helping campaigns reach a broader audience. Lastly, I think they've been deployed quite successfully - and unobtrusively - on sites like Daily Kos, MyDD, Atrios, etc. Any feedback - particularly after the ads are rolled out - will be welcome.

Posted at 02:16 AM in Site News | Comments (5) | Technorati

Is Louisiana Lost to Us?

After an unexpected Democratic Senate victory in 2002, and another narrow Dem gubernatorial win in 2003, things started looking up for us in the Pelican State. But both Landrieu (the Senator) and Blanco (the Governor) are more conservative than John Kerry, and consequently (or so it would seem), the presidential polling tells rather a different story. Market Research International - a possibly GOP firm - showed Kerry back just six points in May. But a new poll done for a group of Republicans and Democrats (go figure) in the middle of July shows Bush with a monstrous 52-36 lead. And a different poll in May put Bush up 52-38.

These results are all quite disappointing, but of course, Louisiana is not a state we need to win. Still, I had hoped it would be a state we could force Bush to compete in, but it doesn't appear to be turning out that way - though according to the story in "The Advertiser," he has spent more money there than we have. I was also hoping that there might be a coattails effect, given that there's now an open (Dem held) Senate race in the offing, but whoever our candidate turns out to be (Louisiana has a wacky election system, if you aren't familiar with it) will likely have to stand on his own.

It's early, but right now, I'm going to say that I think LA would be a major reach for us - more so than even a state like VA or NC. But if you have a different take on why and how we can win Louisiana, I'd like to hear it.

P.S. A very big thank you to everyone who offered (via comments and e-mail) ideas for housing in DC. I'm very grateful.

Posted at 01:45 AM in Louisiana | Comments (57) | Technorati

ARG Polls Taken During the Convention

ARG profiled Iowa from July 26-28, which, it should be noted, was before John Kerry spoke on Thursday night at the convention. The results (likely voters, mid-April in parens):

Kerry: 47 (48)
Bush: 47 (47)
Undecided: 6 (5)
(MoE: ��4%)

Bush & Kerry have almost identical favorability ratings: 49-45 for Bush and 50-44 for Kerry. Bush has remained pretty much constant, but Kerry was at 42-34 in April, suggesting that he's been able to increase his positives at the same time that Bush has driven up his negatives. If these numbers hold until election day - ie, essentially tied across the board - I'd say Iowa is ours.

ARG also looked at West Virginia during the same time-frame. The deltas are equally unexciting (likely voters, mid-June in parens):

Kerry: 48 (48)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

Somewhat to my surprise, Kerry is doing a lot better here on favorability than I would have expected. I'd have figured that Bush's exploitation of Kerry's socially liberal record would have badly hurt Kerry, as it did with Gore. But the challenger stands at 53-37, while Bush is at 44-50. At least according to ARG, it looks like Bush is in serious trouble here. It was only in March that his numbers were 61-37. That's a pretty precipitous drop, if you ask me. So maybe WV is ready to return to the Democratic fold.

I'm not aware of any other state polls that were taken after the convention. (Do pollsters not work on weekends?) But if you know of any, or hear about any, please let us know.

Posted at 01:28 AM in Iowa, West Virginia | Comments (3) | Technorati