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Monday, August 30, 2004
Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCI'm done with interviews, but I'm starting class this week. Should be fun.... More importantly, be on the lookout for the rollout of a big new endeavor here at the SSP, sometime this week.
Posted at 12:15 AM in General | Technorati
Comments
Gallup now shows PA tied (OUCH!!), IA safe in Kerry's column, and Wisconsin barely for Bush. Things certainly aren't looking the way they were a few weeks ago - but then, it is convention time now, so...
I hope we can get PA, FL and OH safe into our column like they were not long ago. It could just be an RNC daydream that will fade come mid-September.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 30, 2004 01:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Gallup now shows PA tied (OUCH!!), IA safe in Kerry's column, and WI barely for Bush. Things certainly aren't looking the way they were a few weeks ago - but then, it is convention time now, so...
I hope we can get PA, FL and OH safe into our column like they were not long ago. It could just be an RNC daydream that will fade come mid-September.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 30, 2004 01:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
So what happened in Pennsylvania?
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 30, 2004 01:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm gonna wait for more PA poll data before I go into panic mode. CNN/Gallup pollsters have shown a habitual tendency towards favorable Bush numbers even when other pollsters were showing Kerry leading. It seems rather stunning that Wisconsin could go Bush in 2004, without Nader on the ballot taking 4% of the vote. I would bet against it tipping Bush's way come November, and remind people that virtually everyone suspected Wisconsin would go Bush in 2000.
This is certainly a nervous time for Kerry supporters given the surprise success of the Swift Boat Veterans ads in keeping our candidate playing defense for weeks. Bush is likely to have a modest advantage between now and the first debate. I wager to say that those projecting a Kerry landslide will be sorely disappointed no matter what happens in the next two months. Nonetheless, I think he should still campaign as if he's running a national campaign, rather than stupidly conceding states like Arkansas as the CNN report last week indicated. For Kerry to be waving the white flag in the pink states this soon is an eerie precedent, and I can't believe his campaign handlers are renewing the Gore strategy of trying to do just well enough to capture 270 electoral votes. I cannot stress enough how this strategy of writing off 25 to 30 states every four years is dooming the Democrats to permanent minority party status for decades.
Posted by: Mark at August 30, 2004 02:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The worrisome PA polls are likely voters--Kerry maintains a 5 point lead among registered voters. Given the huge registration drive in Philly for last year's mayoral race, plus the Democratic intensity this year, likely voter models are especially suspect. Also, polls showed PA even before the 2000 election, and it wasn't very close.
Posted by: science at August 30, 2004 02:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
can't wait to see it David. Glad things are still rolling around here.
Posted by: seamus at August 30, 2004 03:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The reason Kerry has already written off the South is because his advisors know that he doesn't have a chance down there. better to put your resources where they can help win the election than waste them on something that is not going to happen. I myself happen to be a republican out here in California. Bush should not waste his money here. There are better places to leverage that capital.
Posted by: Allan Bartlett at August 30, 2004 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Allan, both parties need to figure out ways to become viable nationally. If Kerry merely writes off the South as unwinnable, it sends a message that the South doesn't matter to the Democratic Party, and the Dems end up losing not only all Southern states in the Presidential election, but also five Senate seats. Neither does it serve Bush's interests to ignore the largest state of the union because it's not politically friendly territory for him. This merely implies satisfaction with the dangerous political polarization going on in this country today. The candidate who's better able to show red America AND blue America that he plans to represent them if elected is most likely to win in November. Bush telling Californians to go to hell and Kerry telling the entire South to go to hell is a giant leap backwards for their personal credibility and for the American political landscape in general.
Posted by: Mark at August 30, 2004 05:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, when Kerry was fighting Dean, Edwards, and Co. for the Democratic nomination he did say he "didn't need the South" in order to win the presidency. I have forgiven him, but then I'm not a native Southerner, though there's no place I'd rather live in USA. Still, he did offend many native Southerners, and it will probably cost him more than a few votes come November. If there's one thing anyone not from the South should know about this region, it's that Southerners have a great deal of pride.
That said, I don't think Kerry would have done well down here anyway, as this region doesn't gravitate much towards Democrats from New England! I have maintained long ago (as many here will recall) that Kerry not waste money in states like NC, LA, AR, TN or VA, any more than Bush should be spending money on ads in RI, CA, or IL. What's the point?
Now I see PA is hanging by a thread for Kerry--what happened there? I thought Teresa was supposed to be a huge asset in PA, so I'm extremely confused by events in the Keystone State. Is she not as popular there as we were led to believe? Why is Bush gaining so much momentum in PA? I'm really getting worried, because PA is honestly one state I never dreamed would be up for grabs. In my opinion, Kerry losing PA would be the equivalent of Bush losing Virginia--it would be a real shocker. Should Kerry lose PA, that changes everything about this race. Indeed, Bush could lose either OH or FL, and he would still win the election. In other words, Kerry needs PA more than Bush needs OH or FL. Maybe all those many trips Bush has made to PA have actually boosted his standing there. All I know is, I assumed all summer long that Kerry would win PA, but if he somehow loses it in November, he will not win the election. A loss in PA would point to a Bush landslide, no? I mean, if Bush wins PA, I don't see how he could lose WV, OH or MO, and probably he'll win FL and WI, too. This is all so crazy--for most of the summer folks here were gloating about a Kerry landslide--I never thought that would happen, either. I figured the outcome would be very tight. I still think it will be, with hopefully a Kerry win. But PA is causing me to wonder just what the hell is going on here.
I feel sick right now, and all of this shows just how mindless and meaningless summer polls are. They're fun and interesting to talk about, but it's unwise to put much credence in them. I knew that, of course, but it's still shocking to see how quickly the tide has turned on the eve of the Republican Convention. PA up for grabs? What's this election coming to? All I can say is good thing the election's not today. OY!
Posted by: Pepe at August 30, 2004 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If it's unwise to put much credence in them why did you write that huge paragraph?
Posted by: Inkan1969 at August 30, 2004 05:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
folks, PA is fine. It can still swing for Bush but it isn't in the tie column yet. Lets not overreact.
Posted by: seamus at August 30, 2004 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If it's unwise to put much credence in them why did you write that huge paragraph?
It should be obvious--I really did believe all the polls up until now about PA being firmly in the Kerry column. I felt that PA was at most only on the periphery of being a true "swing state." I was wrong to believe that PA. That said, I never believed the polls predicting any Kerry landslide, nationally. Right now I'm seriously questioning a lot of assumptions from the polls.
But can anyone here explain exactly what's taking place in PA? Again, I thought Teresa Heinz would be a huge asset. Can anyone in PA tell us what the feelings are towards here in PA? Is she not as popular there as I was led to believe? What gives?
Posted by: Pepe at August 30, 2004 06:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe,
I think its too soon to say that anything is going on. But its not surprising to me that Teresa isn't having a huge beneficial impact int he rural areas. she has a very Hillary-esque love or hate image in parts of western PA. That said, I think she is more a benefit that anything else which is why I think she is valuable on the stump.
PA is a swing state for a reason and we would be foolish not to think that Bush was going to closein around the RNC. More than likely, this is a slight shift but not a major one and hopefully not a permanent one. But we still need to be patient and wait and see how things play out.
Posted by: seamus at August 30, 2004 06:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The situation in Pennsylvania doesn't concern me. The situation in Arkansas does. Nearly every poll in AR has showed the state to be a statistical dead heat....yet the Bush campaign has convinced Kerry's team that it's unwinnable. If this psychology is not reversed in very short order, Kerry will lose this election.
Posted by: Mark at August 30, 2004 06:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark, While I think the Kerry campaign could stand for some criticism I doubt they based their approach to Arkansas on Bush's campaign team. Probably their own error in judgement if its winnable but they are not treating it as such.
Posted by: seamus at August 30, 2004 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush should not pretend he will win the Pacific Coast, the Northeast, or parts of the Midwest like Illinois. Likewise, Kerry should not pretend he will win most of the South (until Hispanics take over states like Texas), the Deep Midwest, or the northern part of the Near-West (like Wyoming, Montana...).
However, I think Kerry should try in Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, and Colorado, and not just write them off because he has his eyes set on Ohio. The polls show Arkansas and Tennessee to be competitive - to the point where, if Edwards made some more visits, these states could be the only blue states in the South this year.
West Virginia is traditionally blue, and we had it in our column a few weeks ago. If Edwards were to appeal to their old-fashioned Appalachian values (something I'm not sure Kerry could do), we could peel that one off and reclaim it as a Democratic stronghold. We should also not write off Missouri, as it is a neck-in-neck race in the Show-Me State.
Meanwhile, Nevada and Colorado are increasingly less Republican as more and more Hispanics and big-city people from California, etc. move there.
Also, what Mark said about Wisconsin makes me hopeful. I truly hope Kerry/Edwards doesn't make the mistake of writing off states that went red last time. People were more turned on by Bush's homey thing last time than they are today, especially in states like Arkansas, West Virginia, and Missouri. And, of course, if we can register enough voters in Miami, we've got it made.
BTW, I'm still curious about the Senate races - especially Colorado, Alaska, Oklahoma, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, South Dakota, Florida, Washington, California, and Louisiana.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at August 30, 2004 07:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nathaniel, in regards to the Senate races....
Colorado--two recent polls were split. One showed Democrat Salazar up by four...the other showed Republican Coors up by one. This could be a Democratic takeover, but then I thought Strickland would beat Allard two years ago as well.
Alaska--recent polls have shown the race very close. Most seem to indicate a lead for Democrat Knowles, but within the margin of error. I have very low expectations for this given that hard-right Alaska voters will go to the polls with visions of ANWAR oil rigs dancing in their minds. Bush's coattails should pull Murkowski across the finish line. If this weren't a Presidential election year, it may be a different story.
Oklahoma--I think we lost this one as soon as the Republicans picked the hard-right Tom Coburn over Kirk Humphreys. Ever since Coburn was nominated, two polls showed him leading Carson by 10-point and 4-point margins. Coburn speaks Oklahoman, and cuts into Carson's base in heavily Democratic eastern Oklahoma. If any Dem were to win in Oklahoma, Carson is the guy....but Coburn is likely to make that effort next to impossible. Bush's coattails will be extreme here as well, considering he has a 60% approval rating there, one of the highest in the nation.
Georgia--no polls here yet, but it's gonna be a bloodbath in favor of the GOP given that Denise Majette is the best the donks could do.
South Carolina--bad news here. Republican DeMint leads Democrat Tenenbaum by 13 points here. Like Carson in OK, Tenenbaum is the only Democrat in the state of SC with a chance of holding Hollings' Senate seat. I won't say it's all over but the crying here, but 13 points is a very ugly margin to overcome.
North Carolina--Erskine Bowles lead by double digits or near double digits. Looking good for Dems thus far, but I suspect this race will get much closer before Election Day gets here. If the Dems can't pull this one off, it's gonna be a long, ugly night.
South Dakota--no polls in two months. Polls from early summer showed Daschle with a small lead. I'm very worried about this given that Daschle has spent $9 million (equivalent to probably $90 million in most American media markets) in more than a year of advertising while Thune has done virtually no advertising until very recently. Daschle remains popular in SD, but more popular than Thune? Only time will tell. I'd give 50-50 odds.
Florida--couldn't tell you. First we need to get through the primary and determine who the candidates will be.
Washington--Murray has a lead in the 10-point range. Not comfortable enough for me.
California--Boxer leads by modest margins.
Louisiana--no polls that I know of. Will likely require another special election a month after the general election.
Posted by: Mark at August 30, 2004 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"The situation in Pennsylvania doesn't concern me. The situation in Arkansas does. Nearly every poll in AR has showed the state to be a statistical dead heat....yet the Bush campaign has convinced Kerry's team that it's unwinnable. If this psychology is not reversed in very short order, Kerry will lose this election."
Not only does John Edwards need to get to Arkansas but they need to get Clinton stumping there. I think a Clinton stump in TN and Ark could help out there as he blows Bush away on homey happy speech giving. I agree that Edwards campaign couldn't be stupid enough to listen to the Bush campaign on where to set up shop...I think it is a miscalculation on there part. At this point, i will take all the small states as They will come in handy if Kerry loses both OH and FL.
Posted by: Michael at August 31, 2004 10:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Kerry spokeswoman Allison Dobson said a high-profile representative of the Kerry campaign will hold one of the visits in every battleground state to promote his agenda. The campaign will pass out copies of the Kerry-Edwards book, "Our Plan for America," which also goes on sale next week to the public for $12.95. "
Man, it is like they have been reading my threads or minds. I have been advocating this (well not in book form but to come out with comprehensive info) and I am glad to see they are doing it. It is a bit of a gamble but if it pays off, it counteract many of the negatives in this.
Also I hope they NAIL BUSH'S ASS TO THE WALL for flip flopping. Not only all the old incidents but the current "OH WE CAN'T WIN THE WAR ON TERROR...OH WAIT, AMERICANS DON'T WANT TO HEAR THAT...OH MY OPPONENT SAYS WE CAN...OK WE CAN WIN THE WAR ON TERROR" flip flop. Hypocritical piece of ass crack scum....
Posted by: Michael at August 31, 2004 04:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark, it appears that the Senate nominees in Florida have been picked...Betty Castor for the donkeys and Mel Martinez for the elephants. We'll see how this impacts things.
I'm tired of us being put on the defensive by Republicans....
I saw the Governator (governor of my state, I'm ashamed to say - but not for much longer, as I'll be leaving soon)...and by the way, I didn't find it to be a moving speech - rather, he's back to his old movie jokes and cheap shots at Democrats.
I also saw Stepford Laura speak...I don't mean to be harsh, but that's how I think of her.
Why do they get to have their convention closer to election day????!!!!
Ah well, the debates are still ahead...that should be a slam dunk as long as Dubya doesn't pull a "there you go again, Mr. President" moment...and I hope Kerry doesn't fall into the Dukakis trap of being too cool and intellectual...
I'm not really all that worried, I just wish this were a no-brainer race like '96. I feel better watching Mondale's '76 convention speech, and Carter before him...it's nice to be reminded of the pre-Reagan days, when the only difference between the two parties was on taxes and government and not on religion, big business, civil liberties, and whether you're pro-U.N. or you believe in the U.S. taking over the world (seeing what Schwarzenegger said about this made me nauseous).
Anyhow, I think this Bush lead is an early convention bubble...I'd say it bursts before the end of September.
Nathaniel
Posted by: Nathaniel at September 1, 2004 12:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, I watched all of Arnold's speech, and I wasn't impressed at all. I swear, he's more like a cartoon than a human being. That said, I'm increasingly worried. This election shouldn't even be close after 4 years of Dubbya, and yet here we are, in a dead heat, with Bush gaining momentum over the past several weeks. The GOP is only going to add to his momentum, making it an uphill battle for Kerry probably the rest of the way.
Do not think that the debates will save us--remember, Gore was supposed to kick Bush's ass, but it didn't work out that way. And most unfortunate of all, the debate on national security/defense will be the LAST debate, which is probably the one people will best remember. It's unfortunate, because it's Bush's area of greatest (perceived) strength.
Right now nothing is certain except there's a great deal of uncertainty. It's still Kerry's to lose, and right now he's losing it.
Posted by: Pepe at September 1, 2004 06:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nathaniel, I know nothing of Betty Castor, the likely Dem candidate in Florida, but whether the GOP candidate is Bill McCollum or Mel Martinez, they have a leg up on the Dems in that both men are from the bellwether Orlando region and can be expected to best Betty by a battallion of ballots in the area. Ideally, Castor's from equally bellwether Tampa-St. Pete to offset Martinez or McCollum's Orlando advantage.
I am actually quite nervous about the debates because Kerry, like Gore before him, has to contend with the soft bigotry of low expectations for Dubya. The bar is set so low for Bush that he merely has to step over it, while the bar for Kerry is so high that he needs to stage an Olympic record pole vault to rise above it. I've seen Kerry in debates during the Iowa Caucus. He was impressive enough, but I don't know if he's so good that he can grind Bush into dust as he will need to do to convince many swing voters who like Bush personally. At least 45% of Americans refuse to hold George Bush accountable for anything he's done and at least another 5% can be fairly easily swayed. That's alot for Kerry to overcome. To put it bluntly, unless we see a repeat of the first 1984 debate when Mondale made Reagan seem like a clueless dolt, the horserace is likely to remain nose-to-nose.
Posted by: Mark at September 1, 2004 10:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nathaniel, I know nothing of Betty Castor, the likely Dem candidate in Florida, but whether the GOP candidate is Bill McCollum or Mel Martinez, they have a leg up on the Dems in that both men are from the bellwether Orlando region and can be expected to best Betty by a battallion of ballots in the area. Ideally, Castor's from equally bellwether Tampa-St. Pete to offset Martinez or McCollum's Orlando advantage.
I am actually quite nervous about the debates because Kerry, like Gore before him, has to contend with the soft bigotry of low expectations for Dubya. The bar is set so low for Bush that he merely has to step over it, while the bar for Kerry is so high that he needs to stage an Olympic record pole vault to rise above it. I've seen Kerry in debates during the Iowa Caucus. He was impressive enough, but I don't know if he's so good that he can grind Bush into dust as he will need to do to convince many swing voters who like Bush personally. At least 45% of Americans refuse to hold George Bush accountable for anything he's done and at least another 5% can be fairly easily swayed. That's alot for Kerry to overcome. To put it bluntly, unless we see a repeat of the first 1984 debate when Mondale made Reagan seem like a clueless dolt, the horserace is likely to remain nose-to-nose.
Posted by: Mark at September 1, 2004 10:08 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I would like to see Kerry staffers start talking about Bush being a decent debater; how he won the Gore debates pretty easily (screw AL'S ego...He blew it so he gets trashed for the good of the party) How john feels debates are not his strongest point, how bush has never lost a debate. Start getting those thoughts in peoples minds. If it works, you raise the bar and then Kerry can grind him into dust.
Posted by: Michael at September 2, 2004 02:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment