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Wednesday, September 22, 2004
ARG Delivers All 50 States (+ DC!) at Once
Posted by DavidNYCTo follow up on Chris's post from a few days ago, the American Research Group has released polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Here's the executive summary:
�Ģ George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
�Ģ Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
�Ģ Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
�Ģ Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
�Ģ Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
�Ģ Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
�Ģ Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
�Ģ Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
�Ģ Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
�Ģ Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.
Twenty-nine states have Bush-Kerry margins of 10% or less, which is the criteria I use here (sans the minor candidates) to determine swing-statehood. But most of the states at the upper end of the margin are clearly not swing states, and a couple (Hawaii and Mississippi, for instance) are patently ridiculous. Here is the full list at ��10% ("DK" = "don't know," likely voters, MoE: ��4% for all polls):
|
|
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
DK |
Margin |
|
46% |
46% |
2% |
1% |
6% |
0% |
|
|
46% |
46% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
0% |
|
|
46% |
47% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
1% |
|
|
46% |
45% |
3% |
1% |
6% |
1% |
|
|
45% |
46% |
2% |
1% |
6% |
1% |
|
|
48% |
46% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
|
|
45% |
47% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
|
|
47% |
45% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
2% |
|
|
47% |
45% |
1% |
1% |
7% |
2% |
|
|
48% |
46% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
|
|
45% |
47% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
2% |
|
|
48% |
45% |
2% |
0% |
5% |
3% |
|
|
44% |
48% |
4% |
0% |
5% |
4% |
|
|
44% |
49% |
1% |
0% |
6% |
5% |
|
|
49% |
44% |
* |
1% |
6% |
5% |
|
|
49% |
43% |
* |
1% |
6% |
6% |
|
|
43% |
49% |
2% |
1% |
5% |
6% |
|
|
50% |
44% |
* |
1% |
5% |
6% |
|
|
49% |
43% |
* |
1% |
7% |
6% |
|
|
50% |
43% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
7% |
|
|
44% |
51% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
7% |
|
|
50% |
42% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
8% |
|
|
40% |
48% |
1% |
1% |
9% |
8% |
|
|
42% |
50% |
1% |
1% |
6% |
8% |
|
|
41% |
50% |
2% |
1% |
6% |
9% |
|
|
43% |
52% |
2% |
0% |
3% |
9% |
|
|
51% |
42% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
9% |
|
|
41% |
51% |
4% |
0% |
4% |
10% |
|
|
40% |
50% |
4% |
0% |
7% |
10% |
If you've made it down this far, I'd say that this list conforms to expectations for the most part. A number of red states look tantalizingly close: WV tied, CO 1%, NV 2%, OH 2%. Some blue states are too close for comfort: PA 1%, MN 2%, OR 2%, ME 4%. At the far end of the list, if MS and HI are at 9% and 10% respectively, then I think NJ, DE, MD, MI and LA are also actually wider than these polls show - which is good news for us.
I don't know anything about ARG's LV model, and if it weren't for the fact that they put out an entire nation's worth of polls at once, I wouldn't be eager to post their results. So if you know anything about their methodology on this front, let us know. One thing which I do like is that they didn't poll Nader in states like AZ where he is definitively off the ballot.
P.S. The colors are ARG's, not mine - evidently, they mean what we'd expect, with purple being "swing." Their cutoff is apparently 8%.
Posted at 10:00 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
Ruy Texeira says they're at least as good as anybody else-- predicted the 2000 election state-by-state and got about 44 states right. A Repug would no doubt rejoice to see Bush up in NH and Kerry leading in IL by just 6 points, but I'm happy to see a real Kerry lead in NM (the first non-Zogby NM lead we've had since the RNC) and a tie in WI, which other polls place out of reach. Still pessimistic about WV, though-- Gallup's LVs are worthless, so I looked at their new RV numbers in NV and WV: NV within 2%, just as in ARG's poll, but WV down double digits among RVs. Optimistic about NV, CO, NH-- if we get all the Gore states plus those three, we won't even need FL.
Posted by: accommodatingly at September 23, 2004 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think Kerry has the momemtum now, although I am concerned about his voice.
The states to watch seem to be AR, CO, FL, IA, MN, NV, NH, OH, OR, PA, and WI, and to a lesser extent ME, NM, NJ, NC, and WV. Kerry is discontinuing his ads in AZ, AR, MO, and LA. I think Kerry has a lock on MI and WA. I doubt the MD polls.
I think Bush is favored slightly overall in these states but Kerry is coming on strong now.
Posted by: Peter at September 23, 2004 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment