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Thursday, September 16, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 16

Posted by Chris Bowers

(Yesterday���s Number in Parenthesis)

National Vote Projection
Bush: 49.17 (49.01)
Kerry: 48.83 (48.99)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Used: ABC, CBS, Economist, Fox, Gallup, Harris, ICR, Newsweek, Rasmussen, Zogby
Recent Polls not used: AP, IBD / CSM, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 190 solid (254, 207, losing Michigan from solid)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: WI to Bush; NH to Kerry
States Projected Under Three Points: MO for Bush (11, Florida moving over 3); IA, ME statewide and CD-2, NH, PA and OR for Kerry (42, Oregon moving under 3)

I am going to warn you right now: don���t expect the new GECC to be particularly exciting and show much movement on a daily basis. Previous studies have shown that fluctuations in Party ID in polls account overwhelmingly for the way they fluctuate during September and October. Since I have quite intentionally flattened out that aspect of polling, for a candidate to move even half a point in one day would be enormous. It is perhaps possible that things will speed up once other tracking polls besides Rasmussen come onto the scene, thereby reducing the size of the dataset, but even then I wouldn���t count on it.

Bush is ahead by 47.76-46.11 nationally when undecideds are not allocated. Then again, if I wasn���t allocating undecideds I wouldn���t be using likely voter models, which would probably show something closer than 47.76-46.11. If I had to guess right now, I would say that there is at least a twenty percent chance that the winner of the popular vote in this election was going to lose the Electoral College. While that person is more likely to be Kerry, it could also be Bush, especially if both Florida and Pennsylvania was to buck the national trend (which would make Kerry impervious to losing two out of three from Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin). With New Hampshire and Nevada as prime pickup opportunities for Kerry, the true nightmare scenario is still Bush winning in the House after a tied Electoral College.

Bush moved up today after the introduction of the Harris and Economist polls by following up a very good day in Rasmussen on Tuesday with a Wednesday that equaled his best day during the convention. Of course, by Sunday, both days will be removed, and things will probably be close again. The Rasmussen poll keeps me from feeling euphoric about the Harris poll. Still, when the most historically accurate pollster in the land shows Kerry up one, I���m inclined to smile a bit.

New Jersey has replaced California in my twenty-two state-by-state projections. Right now, I have Kerry up 6.1 in the Garden state.

Posted at 02:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Comments

A 269 EV tie might not get W 're-selected' if South Charleston Mayor Richie Robb does the 'rogue' elector thing!
http://www.dailymail.com/news/News/2004090817/

Posted by: Roscoe at September 16, 2004 04:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Are we really sure about this weighting business? I've been reading around alot of polls and it all just seems a little strange. There's no meta-narrative that just says, "It's a toss up!" Instead I cringe as the slightest hint of a lead, normally way, way within the margin of error leads to the entire media phantasm to start indicating the 'shift'. Polls make for really cheap news stories, and then only one or two are reported, never the lot and never critically. The only indication of any of the difficult statistics going on behind the scenes is the finer print indication of "margin of error"; hidden away so that the majority of people won't stop buying that newspaper or watching that program 'cause they might start thinking it is too smart for them. They'll never begin indicating that some some polls are weighted for an assumed Party ID and others are not? Don't even think we'll have prime time 30 second blurbs about the value of different Party ID breakdowns for different States (It cannot be one size fits all, either everything is state by state, or nothing is). Not a chance. In the news blurb media every poll is presented as EXACLTY the same. This means in the end that being more 'honest' (if there is such a thing in prediction) is wrong because it will make Kerry lose momentum while less thorough polls that push Bush ahead take the spotlight. We'll lose because we are right, and the world will suffer.

Posted by: L_dog at September 16, 2004 04:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The "rogue elector", Mayor Robb, says that he would not likely vote for Kerry. So that would make it Kerry 269, Bush 268, and it would still go to the House. If the Dems take the Senate, though, it might be Bush-Edwards.

Posted by: science at September 16, 2004 04:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The nightmare scenario isn't necessarily the end of the story. Here are several creepy squeakers that make 2000 look tame:
http://www.swaine.com/#CreepySqueakers

Posted by: Mike Swaine at September 16, 2004 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Am I in a minority thinking that whoever wins, Kerry or Bush, it will not be by a slim margin? I have a gut feeling that one of the candiates will break away and win by a fairly comfortable margin. While the election will be close in the battleground states, I have a feeling they will fall mostly on the side of the winner. Despite a comfortable win in the Electoral College, this could mean that the winner loses or barely wins the popular vote.

Posted by: Pepe at September 16, 2004 05:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

DSCC is fighting back for Patty Murray!

Looks like the DSCC is taking Patty Murray���s race seriously ��� they put together a website about George Nethercutt (her opponent) that launched today. If you don���t know, Nethercutt is the congressman from Spokane who beat Tom Foley in 1994 by running on term limits, then changed his mind in 2000 and decided to stay put. Guess he likes the lobbyist money!

Anyway, their site is at www.nethernetherland.com. Patty Murray���s site is www.pattymurray.com. She���s been targeted as the second most important pickup by the Republicans, so they���re dumping money into Nethercutt���s campaign, and sending Bush out there to help him out. The Nethercutt site is pretty funny, though! :)

Posted by: John Jackson at September 16, 2004 06:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Pepe, I think you're probably right. It won't be as close as last time, at least not electorally. Most of the battleground states will fall slightly into one candidates corner.

By the way, I can't believe a South Carolina Republican elector is stating publicly he's not likely to cast a ballot for Dubya. How cool is that? We have our own Zell Miller...and from the South no less.

Posted by: Mark at September 16, 2004 09:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment