Swing State Project: General Election Cattle Call, September 18

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Saturday, September 18, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 18

(Yesterday��s Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.38 (49.19)
Bush: 48.62 (48.81)
Status: Toss-up
Polls included: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, IBD / CSM and Newsweek (re-weighted); CBS, Economist, Harris, ICR, Rasmussen and Zogby (un-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 197 solid (254, 197)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, OH and WI for Bush (57, with MO moving over 3 points); IA, NH, OR and PA for Kerry (39, with ME CD-2 moving over 3)

Not much change. The popular vote projections are going to move at a snail��s pace anyway, and there have been few new��or at least few new and different��state polls of late. Without undecideds allocated, Bush leads 46.86 to 45.97. The total number of undecideds is currently 5.17%. Right now, the election would hinge upon Ohio and Iowa (Kerry would need both to win, and both are projected under one point).

The number one assumption I am making in these projections is what Party ID turnout will look like. If I am right, then my projections will almost certainly hit very close to the target. If I am wrong, I could be well off. Although I originally had decided on a 39 D, 36 R, 25 I / O figure, right now I think that may be slightly off. In 2000, I / O��s only made up 23.2% of the voting public according to VNS exit polls, and with an even weaker third-party performance expected this time around, that number will probably drop even further (it dropped in both 1996 and 2000). As such, I think a better estimate of Party ID turnout would be 40.5 D, 37.5 R, and 22.0 I / O. This allocates 1.2% of the I / O self-identifier vote to the two major parties from 2000, with 0.2% going to the Democrats and 1.0% going to the Republicans. This feels right to me, and not just because it makes for fairly even numbers. Republicans have gained very slightly on Democrats in Party ID since the 2000 election, and I believe that Party ID turnout will be quite close to 40.5-37.5-22.0. If anyone is willing to offer a different estimate of Party ID, I am more than willing to hear it and the rationale behind it.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati

Comments

I think there may be something of a kill the messenger syndrome kicking in here against Pepe and anyone else who starts to critique how far wrong the Kerry campaign has gone. Given the failures of the Bush administration on multiple fronts, we should not be where we are right now. I think in the annals of Democratic campaigns this one may rank up there (down there?) with Dukakis.

I saw that Kerry is finally running his first attack ad against Cheney/Halliburton/the war, etc. It's great news, and I hope it is followed by a whole series of tough ads. The problem is, it's coming about 6 months late. They should have started this attack back in April, with a ten point "evaluation" of the Bush adminstration on all levels: jobs, the economy, the deficit, health care, the war, the environment, women's rights, etc. etc. A damning indictment could have been built bolstered by interviews with people on the street, experts, etc. Then, by August, they should have been laying out a positive ten point program about what a Kerry/Edwards administration would do on all of these things. However, I think it may be too late for that. The point of saying this is not to kick us when were down, but to learn from the past so that we do better in the future.

Posted by: Ben at September 19, 2004 04:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I appreciate your post, Ben, and not surprisingly, I couldn't agree with you more. I've been urging Kerry and his campaign to get more assertive and not allow the Bush campaign to call all the shots. Simple as that. Kerry's biggest problem is that he has not managed to connect with the American people. A lot of time has gone by and during that time I have seen the red states on the electoral college map increasing week after week. How can anyone say that Kerry currently has Bush right were he wants him? Yes, I'm critical, and I'm upset. I have maintained since Kerry's winning the nomination that this was his election to lose--going into this Kerry had all the momentum one could hope for to win in 2004, and if he doesn't it will come back to him.

Posted by: Pepe at September 19, 2004 05:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Apparently there is an initiative on the ballot in Colorado that would require the state to split its electoral college votes according to a percentage of the popular vote.

If Kerry even carries 40% of the state he could get 4 of the electoral college votes from that state.

Sorry I do not have a link to that article, but apparently 60 % of the people in Colorado are in favor of this passing.

David Troutman
Republican for Kerry

Posted by: david at September 19, 2004 06:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David - check the CO archives on this site for more about that proposal.

Posted by: DavidNYC at September 19, 2004 08:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For those interested, I've posted my latest (9/19) survey of 46 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.

Executive summary: Bush has taken a significant lead over Kerry -- they've just about reversed their positions from a month ago. Thirty-eight of the 46 sites surveyed show Bush winning, and 4 other show him ahead. Bush has 284 to 290 electoral votes, while Kerry has 223 to 227.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at September 20, 2004 01:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Some have expressed concern about the big Bush lead at electoral-vote.com, which is now 327-211 EV. Do the following exercise: shift 1% (that's ONE percent) from Bush to Kerry in every state. Then the EV count is 254-252 (Bush), and THAT includes the outlier NJ poll for Bush. PA and IA are tied. This shows the extraordinary volatility of electoral-vote counts.

Posted by: science at September 20, 2004 10:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Do the following exercise: shift 1% (that's ONE percent) from Bush to Kerry in every state. Then the EV count is 254-252 (Bush), and THAT includes the outlier NJ poll for Bush. PA and IA are tied. This shows the extraordinary volatility of electoral-vote counts.

Check out Sam Wang's swing index.

Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at September 20, 2004 12:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Posted by: Roy at November 12, 2004 08:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

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Saturday, September 18, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 18

Comments