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Wednesday, September 29, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, September 29
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Results in Parenthesis)
National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (48.98)
Kerry: 48.57 (49.02)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby (unweighted);
ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, Marist, Pew and Time (re-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Democracy Corps, IBD, NBC
Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 295, 190 solid (295, 158)
Kerry: 243, 171 solid (243, 186)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: IA and WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, IA, NV and NH for Bush (43, with OH and WI moving over three points); MN for Kerry (10, with ME CD-2 moving over three points and MN moving under)
Bush had a pretty good week, at least according to the polls. Without undecideds allocated, his lead has increased to almost three points, 47.32-44.48. Also, AZ, CO and VA moved into ���solid��� territory for Bush under my projections, while MI moved out of solid territory for Kerry (although ME-statewide became solid Kerry). However, even with polls looking that this, with a standard undecided break and a GOTV effort that improves on 2000 by only one point, Kerry would still have a darn good chance at this thing. Kerry is down right now, but not by much. We have more than enough time to erase this deficit.
As soon as Zogby���s tracking poll starts, the dataset will become far more restrictive. Also, I have removed Tennessee from the battleground, leaving only twenty-one states left.
Posted at 01:23 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
we will know by friday if this election is over because the media sure is spinning it that way.if kerry doesn`t have a good night bush will probably win anbout the same as clinton did in 96.this country is in for a rough 4 years if that happens.
Posted by: JOEL at September 29, 2004 02:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
FOUR MORE WARS if Bush wins Nov 2nd. Seriousl!
This latest Cattle Call demonstrates why Kerry should be focusing on Florida. He can win the election by losing WI and IA, and winning FL. I think WI is about at the point where it is hopeless. IA is still competitive but irrelevant. Florida is the prize Kerry has to win. If he wins FL, then all the other tossups are irrelevant.
I know people will give this reason or that reason to not write off a state, but elections are won by amassing 270 EVs. The bottom line is winning. Kerry will need FL to do so. The demographics aren't good for Kerry in the Upper Mid West. It's a region that is definitely trending Republican. He has a much better shot at winning a state that has a sizable minority population and has a few strong liberal regioins as well. Florida is winnable and the polls say so. Kerry has to focus there, while still tending to other battleground states.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 29, 2004 02:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I realize some may construe this in bad taste, but believe me, it is not my intention. With that said, here it goes. Can someone tell me, someone familiar with the geography of Fla., whether the recent rash of hurricanes will cause a lower turnout in some areas of the state than others. It seems to me that ppl. focused on rebuilding their homes, schools, and communitites are not going to be terribly interested in the election. I wonder if this doesn't benefit the dems in some perverse sense? Any thoughts?
Posted by: bigguy at September 29, 2004 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
rock_nj, I can almost guarantee a Kerry loss if he tries to make this election all about one state. I hope to God the Kerry campaign isn't coming to the same conclusion you are a month before the election.
Posted by: Mark at September 29, 2004 02:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Big Guy,
The blue part of FL is mainly on the east coast. Here is a map and a county by county vote:
http://usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/map.htm
http://usatoday.com/news/vote2000/cbc/flcbc.htm
Posted by: DFuller at September 29, 2004 02:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think placing all hopes on one state is folly. There are several states where Kerry is competitive. He should be trying to cull as much support as possible for a collection of battlegrounds and also shoring up the base.
The polling numbers are not encouraging in the last few days, however, the situation is not dire. A strong comeback is quite plausible if the Kerry camp consistently hits back (we've only had silence in the last few days) in the media, strides out with its own message (do they ever???)instead of playing defense, and does well in the debates. So far, they are not doing the job on the first two items, however, the race is not over.
They successfully claimed the stage for a few days but then the big silence occurred. That cannot happen again. If they control the message they can win... but the question is one of whether or not they will claim the stage.
Posted by: Delilah at September 29, 2004 03:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What do think the chances are of 269-269, the way it looks to me it is actually could happen fairly easily. If Kerry gets FL, NH, and Bush gets NM,and WI its tied, isn't it?
Posted by: Jordan at September 29, 2004 04:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What fustrates me is that people are voting r
religion over their pocket books. Just
look at states like arkansas where the
poverty levels are on the rise; yet
they continue to vote republican.
Crazy! And one more thing if 10% OF THE
fifty percent of people that never vote;
vote; Kerry would win in a landslide.
Oh well more soilders will die over false
statements.
Posted by: godfrey at September 29, 2004 04:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It does seem that the hurricanes have affected more Republican leaning parts of Florida. The Democratic stronghold in southeast Florida was the one part of the state to escape the storm. The I-4 Corridor has also been affected, which is a swing area with pockets of both Ds and Rs. The panhandle is a traditionally Democratic area, going back to the days of yellow dog Democrats and the Solid South, that has been trending Republican for years. All in all, Bush has been pouring relief money into FL, but people might feal vunerable and consider other voting options this fall. Not sure how it might effect turnout. Hard to say if victims are more or less likely to turn out on election day.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 29, 2004 04:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NEW POLL!!! Kerry is up by 4% in OHIO!!!
Posted by: David Trinh at September 29, 2004 04:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark & Delilah, Remember, it comes down to which states will win you the White House? Kerry needs 270 EVs to win. I know it would be great if Kerry upset Bush in CO and won that Republican leaning state. But, what difference will it make if he comes up short on the EV count? Kerry is getting to the point where he has to look at the polls and consider which states are key to put him over 270 EVs. I think he will find that FL is key to this winning strategy. Sure, he has to focus on other important states. But, realistically Kerry could lose the Gore states of IA and WI, and still win by picking up FL. He needs to start focusing on the EVs. That's what the Republcians do all the time.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 29, 2004 04:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David Trinh, Where's that OH poll from. Kerry does have a shot at winning OH. It would be difficult, since it's a state with a strong Republican tradition. But, if Kerry wins OH, it's probably over for Bush, just as if Kerry loses PA, he can pack it in.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 29, 2004 04:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
rock_nj, the biggest hurricane-related factor that could hurt Bush is the fact that thousands of homeowners will be filing their insurance claims and discover they're getting back substantially less than what they lost. Just dealing with insurance industry sharks in general is likely to bring out the closet populist among many a frustrated Republican homeowner, at the same time as they read headlines about their insurance company doling out tidy campaign contributions to Bush-Cheney '04. As you say, this combination of events could make Floridians feel more vulnerable and less perceptive to messages of "personal responsibility" and "you make your own luck."
With that said, I couldn't disagree with you more in your suggestion that Kerry camp out in Florida for the next month under the assumption it's his ticket to the White House. That is the kind of desperation strategy Bob Dole chose in October 1996 when he went for broke with California, despite losing in the polls. I refuse to accept that a couple bad polls in Iowa and Wisconsin after a summer of good ones means that Kerry is no better off than Bob Dole was at this point eight years ago. Should Kerry go with your strategy, he may inadvertantly turn himself into another Bob Dole. It's way too soon to go into "Florida is our only hope" panic mode. At least give Kerry a chance to debate Bush Thursday night before expanding the ranks of "hopeless" states.
Posted by: Mark at September 29, 2004 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock_nj, I must concur with Mark on the issue of Florida. First, I would never go for broke in a state run by the corrupt Republican machinery, even though I truly hope Kerry ends up with Florida in his column.
Like Mark, I do not believe Wisconsin and Iowa are lost to us -- they can very well end up in our column, coupled with a partial count from Colorado (if the proposal on proportional attribution is passed), as well as either West Virginia or more likely, Nevada, Kerry could win without either Ohio or Florida.
That said, he could win with Ohio and a partial count from Colorado or Ohio in combination with Iowa or Wisconsin or Nevada.
I think it is CRUCIAL that Kerry keep hitting all of these states so that he can win through a number of possible EV calculations. I also believe that the ground he has to make up in all of these states is marginal. And of course, I say all of this with some confidence that he will win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, not to mention Maine and New Hampshire -- all of which have been close but will NOT go red on election day.
I am with Mark. No need for panic. We can still win and, indeed, if there is breath in Kerry's body: WE WILL WIN. Keep the faith and keep all the options open.
Posted by: Delilah at September 29, 2004 05:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Zogby state tracking polls are coming out next week. Does anyone know how the Zogby and Rasmussen state tracking polls fared in 2000? We've heard a lot about how they (and others) did in the national numbers....
Posted by: science at September 29, 2004 05:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Science - I know Zogby's tracking was stellar in 2000 but a bit off in 2002.
The Zogby magic is that they weight by party identification, however, we really have no idea of just what party identification is going to look like in 2004. Whereas I have read that more people are identifying themselves as Republican, voter registration in typical Democratic enclaves has highly increased.
As for Rasmussen, he was a bit off the mark in 2000, however, his current polling appears to be roughly in line with what Zogby has said. I haven't seen a poll by Rasmussen this year that evoked the same kinds of concerns I have when I see polls by the likes of Gallup.
Posted by: Delilah at September 29, 2004 05:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The poll that had Kerry up 4% in Ohio was done by Gallup. I saw it today on Inside Politics and it had a MOE of 4 points.
Posted by: David Trinh at September 29, 2004 05:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am a conservative but always interested in reading things from all points of view. No matter who someone is voting for I believe that too many people vote selfishly. "I'm going to vote for the candidate who will put more money in my pocket." Why??? When did we stop voting for the person who we think is best for our country as a whole? Screw me and my pocketbook-I am going to vote for the candidate who is better for the United States of America. I'll go hide in the corner and dodge flying objects.
Posted by: Brian at September 29, 2004 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David, That's pretty significant, considering Gallup is considered to have a conservative bias. Any poll showing Kerry ahead in OH is great at this point, but coming from Gallup is even better. Kerry might just win OH. Certainly the economy is ripe in OH for him to win, if he can overcome the cultural bias. If we start seeing OH trending heavily towards Kerry, it will be a happy Nov. 2nd for Democrats.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 29, 2004 06:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Brian -- I can understand why the more poverty-striken elements of the population might vote on the basis of "pocket" issues. That said, the fact remains that the poor do not tend to vote. I can also understand why people who are not poor but still struggling would make decisions on the basis of sheer livelihood. I do not, however, understand why people who are very well off vote on the basis of promised tax cuts when they do not have as dire a "need" as those who struggle each day to make ends meet. But then, that's exactly why I am a Democrat.
Having said all of the above, I agree that one should vote for the person who is better for the country as a whole. For that reason, I'll go with the Senator.
Posted by: Delilah at September 29, 2004 06:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Brian, people are almost always going to do what they perceive as their self-interest. In America, rugged individualism at the expense of the collective good is not only accepted, but celebrated and encouraged....and has been since our country's origin. Politicians have found clever ways to twist instant-gratification gluttony as a means to long-term societal benefit. "If you want a stronger economy, go to the mall and SHOP, SHOP, SHOP". "By taking trillions of dollars of revenue off of the government's hands, you will be contributing to the mind-blowing economic expansion just around the corner." Just as slaveholders were told their personal interest doubled as the common good by leaders of the Confederacy, credit-card wielding soccer moms are told they're doing their part for humankind today every time they purchase a new SUV. As a society, we cannot expect to indoctrinate the population with the marketplace ethos of "what's good for me is good for everyone", and then not see the same logic extend into the voting booth.
Posted by: Mark at September 29, 2004 07:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yeah I know I was SHOCKED when I saw that Kerry was ahead in Ohio I literally got up and started dancing around my room (sad, but true).
Posted by: David Trinh at September 29, 2004 07:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David -- the Gallup results for Ohio are shocking but can they be credible given the questionable nature of their polls? I WANT to be thrilled... but the name Gallup does not inspire confidence.
Posted by: Delilah at September 29, 2004 07:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It's not over at all.
First of all, as we all know Democrats have far outregistered Republicans in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and probably even more swing states.
Kerry is also an excellent debater and is what baseball fans would call a closer.
Also, the latest Gallup (!) poll shows Kerry with a 4-point lead among RV's in Ohio and only 2 behind among LV's. What with Kerry's debate skills and the humongous increase in registration in Democratic areas like Cleveland, Kerry stands a good chance at this one. Plus, it looks like Nader's off the ballot here.
Florida is a very diverse state and gets increasingly liberal every election, mostly because of the slow growth of Cuban population in comparison with the growth of non-Cuban Latinos like Mexicans and Puerto Ricans. In the 1980's, Bush would have won this state fair and square. In 2000, he had to cheat to win it. It will be even tougher for him this year. After all, if you reweight Quinnipiac's recent poll showing Bush up by 8 in the Sunshine State, it's a dead heat, which is confirmed by ARG's poll showing Kerry up 1. However, since we've registered so many voters in areas like Miami, it could EASILY swing blue this year...and my prediction is that in future elections it will become a blue state.
If we gain Florida, we can lose both Iowa and Wisconsin. If we gain Ohio, we can lose either Iowa or Wisconsin. I'm beginning to think we'll gain at least one of the two (Ohio or Florida) and probably a little upset state for the Republicans, like Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia, or Arkansas.
I have long felt that Florida was Kerry's best chance...and I would now add Ohio and the four former Bush states mentioned above as very viable possibilities. Remember two things: last time Kerry was the underdog, he pulled through very strong; and, Bush is a better challenger than he is an incumbent - the last time he was the incumbent was considered his worst debate performance ever. And I'm sure Kerry will steer clear of sighs, checking his watch, or anything like that. He can even pull a Reagan 1980, I think.
I feel better about this race than I did last week. These national polls tell you very little because they include super-red states like Wyoming and Utah and super-blue states like D.C. and Massachusetts. Also, many of them oversample Republicans (Gallup, Quinnipiac, and I suspect SUSA regularly do this).
By the way, I think SUSA is about the most unreliable poll I've ever seen. Did you see their latest numbers on the Colorado Senate race? When every other poll showed Salazar with a small lead, they come up with Coors +5. That's only one example...there are more that have escaped me.
As far as non-presidential races: it looks to me like we'll take the majority of the Senate this year depending on several races: AK, CO, FL, OK, and SD. Assuming SUSA is wrong, as it seems to be, we should pick up AK, CO, IL, and OK, and only lose GA and SC, making for a net gain of 2 seats for us, which equals...a bare majority.
The House, however, I would all but call a lost cause. Yes, John Salazar is ahead in Colorado-03, but we aren't making a very strong showing in either Arizona-01 or New Mexico-01. Georgia-12 may be promising, but I can't find any polls there. We'll see what happens next time...next time, I plan to focus on ousting Dennis Hastert, Kate Harris, and Tom DeLay.
As far as governor races: we look like we can pick up Montana, but Republicans have small leads in picking up Indiana and Missouri. No recent polls in New Hampshire or Vermont, either. Meanwhile, North Carolina and Washington look pretty secure for us, as I'm sure are Delaware and West Virginia.
Posted by: Nathaniel at September 29, 2004 08:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The new set of Gallups polls look good for Kerry on RVs, but on LVs, they look bad. A 7 point swing in RV to LV conversion gives the first poll with Bush ahead in PA in 2 weeks. FL shows Bush up by 11 LVs (4 RVs). OH looks better.
I hope that Gallup's model is blowing up here. I don't want to be falsely optimistic and Gallup is a reputable polling company.
Posted by: erg at September 29, 2004 08:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
We can debate the legitimacy of the polls forever, but here are the facts:
l. These same polls showing Bush way ahead now are the same ones that showed him way ahead in 2000. In the end, we all know what happened.
2. Zogsby was the only poll that consistantly presented realistic polling information in the years 2000 and 1996. This is the poll I now keep may eye on.
My advice to all Kerry supporters is to not fall for the confidence game and disregard most of the polls and to keep pushing!
Posted by: Barbs at September 29, 2004 10:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Nathaniel, one dark horse House race to watch is Minnesota's 6th district. It's a Republican-leaning district in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul. The incumbent Mark Kennedy, featured in Fahrenheit 9-11, is the embodiment of the modern-day Republican yuppie who is a far more comfortable fit for his exurban district than his old district in rural southwestern Minnesota, so he has a very clear advantage. However, challenger Patty Wetterling is a children advocate whose son was kidnapped in a high-profile 1989 case that still gets headlines to this day. She is enormously popular and will appeal to a lot of women. The fact that Kennedy's ties to the district are only one term deep, I'm gonna be keeping an eye on this one.
Posted by: Mark at September 29, 2004 10:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ERG,
I don't know if I would call Gallup reputable. Having to go on CNN and defend your polling methods tends to bring about a lot of questions. I think Gallup is respected because of CNN, however, I will be shocked if Gallups number are way off at the end of the election and CNN stays with them. Most of their LV polls are way off everyone elses...I just can't take them to seriously anymore. But hey, we shall see.
Posted by: Michael at September 29, 2004 10:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good advice, Barbs. In my heart I know that Kerry will win Ohio, but get out and vote!!
Posted by: Shar at September 29, 2004 10:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In regard to Gallup...did anyone hear about the full-page ad taken out by MoveOn.org which "outed" the current Gallup, son of the original Gallup, as an Evangelical Christian??...yup...He actually made a comment to the effect that he was "polling for God"....You can go to MoveOn.org's website and download the ad they took out...it was great!
Posted by: Arlene Kelly at September 30, 2004 04:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I certainly did see Moveon.org's ad. I was so glad that someone has paid attention to it. Due to these bogus polls, Bush has been able to create the impression he is surging way ahead and the media portray Bush as a winner. This was the same strategy they used in 2000. To Arlene, I say, I am glad someone else other than myself see
how these polling organizations are playing games with the voting public. To the Kerry supporters, I say once again, stay the course, ignore the polls and be at the polls with your friends on November 2! Also, I'm predicting that the media will say that Bush is the winner of the debates since it's not objective and you can't measure it.
This is also what the media did in 2000. Anything
that you can't measure such as leadership and the winner of the debates seem to always go to Bush.
Posted by: Barbs at September 30, 2004 08:27 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I can't wait for the first debate tonight. I think we'll know much more in the days that follow. I'm not ready to bring out the champagne over OH just yet, but it's always encouraging to see any poll--even Gallup--showing Kerry with a lead there.
Posted by: Pepe at September 30, 2004 09:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
'...did anyone hear about the full-page ad taken out by MoveOn.org which "outed" the current Gallup, son of the original Gallup, as an Evangelical Christian??...'
Arlene although I'm not a Christian, I thought that statement in the ad was a serious, real mistake. We want devout Christians, to vote Democratic. Suggesting that someone is dishonestly favoring Republicans (as the ad does) simply because they're Evangelicals is prejudiced and unwise. It reinforces the worst images of liberals.
Gallup is an old, respected organization. They didnt' do a good job in 2000, but they did in 2002. I think their LV model definitely favors Republicans (not deliberately, just the way its built). But the latest set of Gallup polls are good news for Kerry overall. If kerry is ahead in RV, a good GOTV can lead him to win on LVs.
Posted by: erg at September 30, 2004 10:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
You know, I was saying just yeterday that there hasn't been a single poll showing Bush ahead in Michigan in 3 months, then one comes along today fromt he Detroit Free Press showing Bush ahead 2.Overall though, I think Michigan is probably solid Kerry -- 2 dozen polls, even during the Republican convention, show him ahead, sometimes far ahead. Great Union strength.
Posted by: erg at September 30, 2004 10:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment