Swing State Project

That's an ugly decline, but I'm not basing my opinion on one poll alone. Since the RNC, we haven't done better than four or five points down in any poll, and several (such as this) show us further back. I know some of you get frustrated when the Kerry camp announces it is pulling out of a given state, and I sympathize: I want to fight as broad a campaign as we possibly can.

But at a certain point, you have to decide what the true battlegrounds are. As my mom might say, you need to pick your battles. We don't need NC in order to win it all. I'm not saying we should retreat to just five states, but I also don't think we should be spreading ourselves thin in twenty-two. I also think that Easley and Bowles will do well in their respective races, without a big Kerry-Edwards presence in the state.

I know I've been bullish on NC in the past, so call me a flip-flopper. (Hey, I'll be in good company.) But I think I'm just bowing to reality here. Thought if you can make a case why we should still run strong in NC, I want to hear it.

Posted at 05:17 PM in North Carolina | Comments (37) | Technorati

Sign Up For DNC's Debate Response Team

If you haven't already signed up for the Kerry-Edwards debate response team, do so immediately. Four years ago, initial polling confirmed that Al Gore won the first debate. But within a few days, the Beltway Heathers convinced America that Bush had won and the un-cool Gore had been beaten. So I can't stress enough how important it is that we win this post-debate "debate."

If you sign up, you'll get an e-mail within minutes of the debate which will provide an action plan to ensure that we get positive media coverage. This is especially important for those of you living in swing states, where local coverage can have an enormous effect.

Posted at 04:41 PM in Activism | Comments (3) | Technorati

What's up With Jersey?

I saw that an old New Jersey post was re-kindled with some new comments, and as it happens, I had actually wanted to discuss the subject. NJ has polled a lot closer than many of us might have expected, particularly for a state which favored Al Gore by 16 points. Here, courtesy of Race2004.net, is all the polling since the Republican convention:

So what to make of this? Kerry has held the lead in every poll but one (that SUSA outlier), but things certainly are very tight. One thing you've got to remember, though, is that New Jersey is emphatically not New York. It's more conservative, and was GOP-dominated on the local level until fairly recently.

Ever since Gov. Jim Florio raised taxes (I have no idea on what, but New Jerseyans are allergic to tax hikes) in the early 90s, the Dems in NJ went into a serious tailspin, which opened the door for Christie Whitman's ascendence. In 1993, the GOP took over both houses of the NJ legislature and swept into the Governor's mansion. The following year, with the Gin-Grinch "revolution," things looked very dim indeed for the prospects of NJ Dems.

But what was bad for the goose was also bad for the gander, and Whitman's failure to placate Jersey voters over taxes led to her one-point re-election victory in 1997 (over James McGreevey, as a matter of fact). This win was almost as bad as a loss, because it utterly wiped out Whitman's phenom star power status. A woman who was talked about as a possible VP or even Presidential candidate on the GOP ticket wound up retiring early from her second term to take the shittiest job in the Bush administration: Director of the EPA.

Nonetheless, even though Democrats now control the legislature and the Governorship in NJ today, I think that the state never became nearly as liberal as New York. For instance, in 2000, when both NY and NJ had races to fill open Senate seats (Lautenberg & Moynihan both retired), two very well-funded, similarly liberal (at least, in perception) candidates won in both states. But Hillary Clinton won by 11 points, while Jon Corzine won by just 4. Yes, certainly, there were plenty of difference between the two candidates (not least of which was Hillary's celebrity), and I think Franks probably ran a better campaign than Lazio, but I still think the margin is illustrative of the differences between the two states.

And if you want a more directly comparable race, well, NY went for Gore by 25 points, whereas NJ, as I mentioned above, had "just" a 16% margin.

The bottom line is, despite the closeness of the horserace numbers, this state will stay home with us. Look at the internals of that FDU poll: Right track-wrong track is 35-52. Bush job approval is 45-54; economic approval is 36-64; and even national security is only 42-56. (FYI, this poll is of likely voters, so the usual caveats apply.)

This last issue is Bush's only hope. In a separate question, forty-two percent of voters say that national security is the most important issue this year, and Bush (in a tiny subset) crushes Kerry in terms of "Who would do a better job," 66-21. But Kerry crushes Bush by similar margins on the economy, environment, healthcare and education, issues which collectively merit "most important" status from 40% of voters.

And while I think rawness over 9/11 may actually be greater in NJ than in NY, I don't see how Bush can play his "strong leader" card all that successfully there when 51% of people say invading Iraq was a "mistake" while only 42% say it was the "right thing." Similarly, only 40% say our military effort is going well, while 57% don't think it is. I can't wait for Dick Cheney to accuse these New Jerseyans of giving aid & comfort to the enemy. (Note: I am purposely conflating 9/11 and Iraq here because that's how the Bushies win on this issue - they convince people Iraq was the right thing by exploiting fear over 9/11.)

There were 10% undecided in this FDU poll and 5% leaners (3 to Bush, 2 to Kerry). With numbers like these, I can't see Bush taking these undecideds home on election day, especially since he certainly can't afford to advertise here. (NYC's media market is, of course, the most expensive in the nation.) And though FDU didn't poll this question, other polls, unsurprisingly, have shown Bush with negative favorability ratings.

Again I say, this state is ours. I am certain that the margin will be closer - perhaps even quite a bit closer - than the last time out, but NJ is going to stay blue.

P.S. The NYT has a story on this topic, too, which I just came across, but I think it's the usual boring NYT fluff. And memo to John Adler: Don't cop to any weakness when you're talking to the New York Times. (Just be lucky they ran your quote in the last paragraph.)

Posted at 01:22 PM in Safe States | Comments (14) | Technorati

Guest Poster: Ginny Schrader

[Following up on our earlier guest post from Jeff Seemann, we now have one from none other than Ginny Schrader - who, incidentally, was just adopted by Atrios yesterday.]

Posted by Ginny Schrader

This is my first time blogging, so here we go! I wanted to write personally to say thank you for all the help you���ve given me so far and I look forward to working with you until we win on November 2nd!

I���m running to be a real voice for real people on health care, the economy, education and putting our first responders first. My daughter is a teacher and my son is a police officer - and I understand, and have lived through the struggles that everyday people go through. That is why I want to go to Washington, so the people of my district have real representation.

This campaign is the perfect example of how you are helping to change the future of politics. The blogosphere���s initial fundraising helped build the momentum our campaign is taking into the final stretch. Now our fundraising is going great, we are up on TV, and we have a top-notch organization already in the field.

From now until Election Day, I know you will continue to reinvent netroots activism. Refining these skills and bringing in new activists now will prove invaluable when we transition from campaigning to reforming.

So thanks again and I���ll keep in touch!

Ginny

P.S. We���ve had ads running on Swing State Project for some time now, and I���ve been honored by how many of you have clicked through to find out more information. Your interest, ideas and support have proven to me what we can accomplish when we work together to progress our country.

Posted at 12:21 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 29, 2004

Oh Man, We Are SO Close!

$2,940.08 raised for Ginny Schrader. Just one more generous contribution of $60 will put us over the top, and you won't hear any more Ginny nags from me. (Except, of course, to schlep out to Bucks County and do GOTV.) I have to say, I was a bit nervous when we set our original goal of $2,000 - I just had no way of knowing if we could make it. But you guys (and MyDD readers - I'm sure there's a lot of overlap) have really come through.

As I've said before, Thursday - tomorrow - is the last day of the quarter. Though FEC reporting regulations don't require campaigns to post full reports until 15 days later, I have a feeling that any campaign that's done well (and perhaps even some that haven't) are going to want to trumpet their results as soon as possible. If Ginny posts good numbers - and I have a feeling she will - some big-name groups (perhaps EMILY's List?) may decide to take an interest at the last-minute. If that happens, we can definitely say that we had a hand in it. So let's hit that $3,000!

UPDATE: WE DID IT! WOOHOO! Someone chipped in that final $60 and we've crossed the $3,000 threshold! The Schrader campaign can go home that much richer, and I can quit buggin' you for donations. Pat yourselves on the back - you guys really came through here, for an incredibly deserving candidate.

Posted at 11:07 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (3) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 29

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (48.98)
Kerry: 48.57 (49.02)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby (unweighted);
ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, Marist, Pew and Time (re-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Democracy Corps, IBD, NBC

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 295, 190 solid (295, 158)
Kerry: 243, 171 solid (243, 186)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: IA and WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, IA, NV and NH for Bush (43, with OH and WI moving over three points); MN for Kerry (10, with ME CD-2 moving over three points and MN moving under)

Bush had a pretty good week, at least according to the polls. Without undecideds allocated, his lead has increased to almost three points, 47.32-44.48. Also, AZ, CO and VA moved into ���solid��� territory for Bush under my projections, while MI moved out of solid territory for Kerry (although ME-statewide became solid Kerry). However, even with polls looking that this, with a standard undecided break and a GOTV effort that improves on 2000 by only one point, Kerry would still have a darn good chance at this thing. Kerry is down right now, but not by much. We have more than enough time to erase this deficit.

As soon as Zogby���s tracking poll starts, the dataset will become far more restrictive. Also, I have removed Tennessee from the battleground, leaving only twenty-one states left.

Posted at 01:23 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (34) | Technorati

Allegheny County Voter Registration Analysis

The Post Gazette is reporting that through the middle of September, the Allegheny County elections division has received and registered approximately 40,000 new voters. Among these voters are 21,859 Democrats, 9,369 Republicans, and 9,265 indpedents. More registrations are expected in the next week as registration ends on Monday, Oct. 4. Democrats are out-registrering republicans 2.3:1 which is a rate that is higher than the current voter registration rates in the county. Now what does this mean?

2000 general election shows that Al Gore was able to win a large Democratic majority in the county with 56% of the vote. Bob Casey, a conservative Democrat, won the largest Democratic majority with ~62% of the vote. The state attorney general vote saw a slim majority (~52%) go to Republican Mike Fisher. As we moved down ballot we see Democrats pile up signficant majorities in two of the four area congressional seats. A narrow win for Democrat Mascara occurs in the South Hills and a large win for Republican Mellissa Hart in the North Hills and far eastern suburbs of the county. There is significant ticket splitting within these races, but the county overall went for Democratic candidates. Approximately 585,000 people turned out.

2001 off-year general elections saw the County go overwhelmingly Democratic with significantly lower turnout. The lowest winner for a county wide seat was Recorder of Deeds, Valerie McDonald at 60% of the vote. Turnout was a little more than 230,000 voters.

On turnout of roughly 400,000 voters, the county barely went for Gov. Rendall by 52% in 2002's general election. In significantly redrawn districts, Republicans swept up large majorities in two Congressional districts for Melissa Hart and Tim Murphy, while the Democrats won large in two others.
The 2003 local elections saw the Democratic party win significant majorities for all races. Dan Onoroto was the weakest finisher with ~58% of the vote, while the row officers all received at least 60% of the vote. Turnout was said to be heavy for an off-year election, but I can not find an exact number right now.

So what does this tell us about Allegheny County voting patterns? The hard core partisans and extremely dedicated voters show up no matter what, but they number roughly 230,000 people. These voters split 60-40% Democratic in this county. The less reliable voters are 150% larger as a bloc than the dedicated voters. They also tend to vote more conservatively than the extremely dedicated. Al Gore did well with 56% of the vote in the county in 2000, performing above his state average, but a conservative Democrat received the largest majority, and a Republican won the county for Attorney General.

These new registrations are the anti-definition of extremely dedicated voters. They are previously unattached to the electoral process, and some of them will not be coming out to vote in November no matter how impressive the ACT, ACORN and Pittsburgh VIE GOTV efforts are. However, these three groups have run a pretty impressive campaign already and I have to assume that they have some plans in place for effective GOTV efforts for Allegheny County. The new Democrats who have been registered by these groups voters have been targeted to be in Democratic favorable demographics, so I think that their loyalty will be fairly high when they make it to the polls. These efforts will most likely give John Kerry and other Democrats an additional 1%-2% margin in Allegheny County which will help ride out the large losses that Kerry will take in some of the state's centrally located counties.

Crossposted at Fester's Place

Posted at 10:07 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Iowa Absentee Ballots

On the NYT's front page right now is a story by Johnny Apple about Iowa's absentee ballots. Specifically, the number of Dems requesting such ballots is far outstripping GOP requests. This story is almost like slo-mo, Big Media blogging - and bad blogging, at that. The date on the byline is Sept. 26th - two days ago - and the whole story just rips off a piece that appeared in the Des Moines Register that appeared five days ago. All the NYT really does is add a few quotes (I guess Tom Vilsack returns Apple's calls) and try to hype the story into something big. At least they gave the Register its due - usually the NYT steals from the little guys without so much as a thank you.

Anyhow, I'm ragging on the Times because I don't think there's much to see here. You should really contrast the story with the Register article, which leads with the idea of early voting in general. The part about the Dem advantage only comes later. The Times pumps up this aspect, but it just doesn't seem like that big a deal to me. Yes, more Dems have asked for absentee ballots than Republicans, but in the last two elections, more Republicans have shown up at the voting booths. And yes, there's a 3-to-1 advantage in absentee ballot requests right now, but the ratio of absentee voting in the 2000 election was much narrower - 140K Gore to 130K Bush.

The Register story quotes a GOP politician who says that the Dems are just shifting voting habits, not increasing turnout. This analysis may well be right. Let me just say that I'm not going to stake my Iowa hopes on mail-in ballots.

Posted at 05:01 PM in Iowa | Comments (49) | Technorati

Daily Ginny Nag

From now until the end of the quarter on Sept. 30th - that's just three days - I'm going to post a daily nag for Ginny. If we hit our goal of $3,000 before then, though, I'll quit buggin' ya. As of this moment, we've raised over $2,500 for the Schrader campaign. That's more than even a single wealthy individual could give, and that's pretty spectacular for a pair of blogs that don't quite have DailyKos-level traffic.

Speaking of which, on October 2nd, ActBlue and Party2Win are teaming up to help organize Kos Dozen House Parties. Follow that link to host your own, or find out if there's a party in your area you can attend. It's a great way to support this excellent roster of candidates, including, of course, Ginny Schrader.

Posted at 02:30 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Monday, September 27, 2004

Guest Poster: Jeff Seemann

[As you may already know, Jeff Seemann is a Dean-inspired candidate for Ohio's 16th Congressional District. Jeff is backed by DFA and the DailyKos, and I'm proud to join this group in supporting him. Back in April, when political campaigns rushed to pull their ads and links to DKos, Jeff displayed that all-too-rare virtue of loyalty - what James Carville calls "Stickin'." Since Jeff stuck with us, I'm stickin' with him, and without further ado, I present his guest-post here at the Swing State Project.]

Guest-Posted by Jeff Seemann

I decided to surprise my parents and stop by their place after a long day at the office. The street was lined with cars and a few Bush/Cheney yard signs. One house stood out in particular... the home of my parents, who were hosting a Busy/Cheney house party that night.

My name is Jeff Seemann, and I���m the Democratic candidate for US House in Ohio���s 16th District. 2004 marks the first year I have ever placed my name on a ballot, but this is not my first venture into the political arena.

I founded the Stark County Peace Coalition in February of 2003 as an attempt to stop the eventual war in Iraq. While we were unsuccessful with that goal, we did manage to create an environment where progressive Democrats could feel safe to come out and express their political opinions. Growing up, that environment didn���t even exist in my own home, let alone Canton, Ohio.

You see, I grew up with Republican parents. By midway through Reagan���s first term, they had fully consumed the Republican Kool-Aid. Looking back, I can���t blame them. They both had good jobs, owned their own home, and dad was finishing up his college education with night classes. Everything Reagan told them, they could see in front of their own eyes. Things are much worse for them today, yet they remain rabid Bush supporters.

As an impressionable teenager with Republican parents, I eventually saw what was happening to the rest of the world. I began to empathize. Slowly but surely, I took off the blinders. By the time I got to college, I embraced the label of "black sheep."

It took me a long time to become politically active, but when I walked into Democratic headquarters in early 1992 to become a volunteer, I became a different person. I busted my tail for Bill Clinton in 1996 and wept tears of joy while hugging my girlfriend as he gave his victory speech. I shared that same hug with the same girl, now my wife, in 2000 when Florida was announced as a win for Al Gore. Our 2-year-old daughter, up late as a special treat, didn���t understand why her parents were so happy, but was perfectly willing to bounce around the living room with us.

And then "it" happened. The thrill was gone, and yet another Jeff Seemann was born. I became an angry, frustrated political activist. Out of that anger grew a fighter, someone who would never again accept what was forced upon me.

From the moment they took back Florida on election night, our country has been in decline. Poverty is rising, unemployment is rising, corporate profits are rising, the number of children without health insurance is rising, and the amount of lies we are told is rising. Meanwhile, the number of Representatives that understand what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and live extended periods of time without health insurance is shrinking.

These are some of the many reasons that I am running to become the next Representative of Ohio���s 16th District. We need real representation in Congress. I was not groomed to become a politician. It was not expected of me, but it is something I have to do. I am running because many of the negative experiences I have faced in my life are shared by too many Americans across the country. We lack that basic understanding on Capitol Hill.

I have overcome a Republican upbringing, and I will overcome a Republican government. We have no other choice.

If you want to volunteer with my campaign - especially if you are in Ohio - please contact our Field Director: megan@jeffseemannforcongress. You can also visit our website or give a little.

Thanks,

Jeff

Posted at 03:53 PM in Ohio | Comments (2) | Technorati

Operation Shame on You

I like this idea: Some folks have launched "Operation Shame on You," which is designed to target newspapers which endorsed Bush in 2000 to get them to change their minds for this year. The current target state is Pennsylvania. A number of papers there actually endorsed Clinton-Gore in 1996, so getting them to see the light via letters to the editor might actually be doable.

OSOY has previously targeted Ohio and Florida, but if you want to help out with those states, you certainly still can. This is something very easy to do - you don't even have to get out of your chair. I'm not sure how big of an effect these endorsements have, but I'm inclined to believe that they matter, particularly for undecided voters right near the end of the campaign. Let's put it another way: It can't hurt to have as many endorsements as you can muster.

Posted at 03:13 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Can't Keep Up

There are now so many state polls every day, it's almost impossible to keep up. I may need to rethink my approach. In the meantime, to whet your appetite, we've got a few puppies in this post over here, including IA, MI, NH, OH and PA. And as always, I encourage you to check out Race2004.net - they never miss a poll.

Okay, I know everyone loves to harp on this, but Alan Keyes is at *seventeen* percent in that Illinois Senate poll? Wow. I remember in 1994, the year of the unforgettable Republican massacre, that Pat Moynihan still won re-election with 80+% of the vote. Obama is gonna pull off something similar, and he isn't even an incumbent yet - though it sure feels like he is!

Posted at 02:19 PM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati

Sunday, September 26, 2004

Dem Voter Registration is Up in Swing States

Or at least, so sayeth the New York Times. What's nice about this article is that the Times actually did the dirty work of crunching the numbers, without relying on partisan claims or anecdotal evidence. In the two states the Times looked at, Ohio & Florida, we are kicking serious GOP ass.

Of course, simply registering new voters is not enough. We need to make sure these people get out to the polls. Which is why I strongly encourage each and every one of you, once the fundraising season dies down, to get involved with a voter education/GOTV group. Some excellent ones are listed in the Swing State Activism section of the blogroll on the right. If you know of any others, please let me know.

Posted at 03:36 PM in General | Comments (44) | Technorati

Friday, September 24, 2004

Yom Kippur Open Thread

Taking a break for Yom Kippur. May you have an easy fast. And please feel free to use this as an open thread for the latest polls, swing state news, etc. Let's go Jets!

Posted at 10:04 PM in Site News | Comments (19) | Technorati

Thursday, September 23, 2004

Ginny Update: We Did It!

Just a quick Ginny update: We're now at $1920! With just a couple more donations, we can hit our goal of $2000 today. Who's gonna step up to the plate?

As I was typing the above, a generous contributor put us over the top! We've exceeded our goal of $2000! But that's no reason to stop. Like the Dean bats of yore, you hit a target and then you keep on going. Can we raise another $1000 by the end of the quarter? I think we definitely can.

Posted at 03:49 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 23

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.02 (49.38)
Bush: 48.98 (48.62)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: Economist, Harris, Pew, Rasmussen and Zogby (unweighted); CBS, IBD, Gallup (re-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: Democracy Corps, George Washington, NBC, NDN

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 295, 158 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 243, 186 solid (254, 197)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: IA and WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, IA, NV, NH, OH and WI for Bush (73, with NV moving under three points and IA and NH moving to Bush); ME CD-2 for Kerry (1, with OR and PA moving over three points and IA and NH moving to Bush)

Right now, the story is clearly that Bush seems to have a slight edge almost everywhere in the battleground. Kerry leads in both solid states (186-158) and in states projected by more than three (242-222). However, Bush has actually increased his share of the electoral vote, and taking IA and NH from Kerry. Altogether, a massive 137 electoral votes are projected for Bush by less than six points. Thus, my projections run contrary to the media narrative on the race. Rather than the battleground shrinking, it is as large as ever.

Posted at 02:28 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (23) | Technorati

It's Ginny Time

Here's my weekly nag to give to Ginny. We are incredibly close to our goal already - as of this afternoon, we had raised $1770 from 31 different donors. We are almost there! (And if you follow that link, you can keep track of the totals.)

As it happens, Markos has a post up today about how the abortion issue is playing out in Pennsylvania's 8th CD. Moderate Republicans (they still exist in voter form, if not as politicians) are very turned off by Mike Fitzpatrick's rabidly anti-choice views:

Talk to Ellen Faulkner about abortion rights and passion takes over. The Iraq war and stamping out terrorism are important, but the self-described moderate Republican says the issue of "choice" is not one to compromise.

So in November, Faulkner, 46, of Chalfont, will support Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader over Republican Michael G. Fitzpatrick because of his antiabortion stance. She expects her Republican friends to follow suit.

Abortion, one of the nation's most explosive political and social debates, is emerging as a critical issue in a competitive Eighth Congressional District race in moderate-leaning Bucks County. The district also includes portions of Philadelphia and Montgomery Counties.

If you'll recall, this district is solidly pro-choice - Fitzpatrick's wignuttery just isn't going to play in Bucks County. Embarassed by his own positions on the topic, his campaign has even tried to steer the conversation away from reproductive issues.

The end of the quarter is September 30th, just a week away. This is the last reporting period of the election. Campaigns which can show strength going into the final five weeks will be the recipients of any remaining last-minute "big money." I'd love to see some white knights swoop in to help Schrader put the nails in Fitzpatrick's coffin in October. So let's hit our $2000 goal - the equivalent of one major donor - by the end of the month. Give today, in whatever amount you can.

P.S. A big thank-you to my mother for sending out a fundraising e-mail for Ginny to her personal network. She's the author of "Picking Your Battles" - the ad for her site is on the left-hand strip - so if you have kids (or are thinking about having some), go click on over to her in appreciation. You'll be glad you did - it's an excellent book. (And, of course, she's an excellent mom!)

Posted at 01:17 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Wednesday, September 22, 2004

The Road to Somewhere

Regular guest-blogger Seamus is involved with a very worthy swing-state activism project, the Sierra Club's "Road to Somewhere." This program aims to increase turnout by educating voters about environmental issues. I think this is potentially a very powerful topic, especially when focused on local issues - such as mining safety in Appalachia and Yucca Mountain in Nevada, two topics we've discussed here, for instance.

The Sierra Club is running programs in almost all the swing states, including Seamus' native Pennsylvania. If you can stay for an extended period of time, Sierra will try to find you housing. I know a number of people who have taken this ultimate plunge (most with ACT), and almost everything I've been hearing back has been positive. But whether you can go for 6 weeks or one afternoon, this is yet another good program to join up with.

Posted at 11:10 PM in Activism | Technorati

Race2004.net & More on Colorado

First, a site that I should have plugged long ago: Race2004.net. They have a great clickable map that will give you comprehensive polling information for every state. It's more thorough and user-friendly than almost any similar site.

Secondly, Winger has a very thoughtful post on why Colorado is winnable for us - not just in the future, but this year. As readers here know, I'm a big believer in pursuing our political future in the fast-growing states of the Southwest. Colorado is in many ways part of this region, in particular due to its growing Hispanic population. (This interesting map created by CommonWealth Magazine includes a good chunk of CO in its "El Norte" region.) I'm not supremely optimistic about our chances this year, but I think NV, CO & AZ will all be blue very soon, and be permanently lost to the GOP not long after.

Posted at 10:34 PM in Colorado, General | Comments (1) | Technorati

ARG Delivers All 50 States (+ DC!) at Once

To follow up on Chris's post from a few days ago, the American Research Group has released polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Here's the executive summary:

�Ģ George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
�Ģ Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
�Ģ Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
�Ģ Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
�Ģ Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
�Ģ Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
�Ģ Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
�Ģ Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
�Ģ Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
�Ģ Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

Twenty-nine states have Bush-Kerry margins of 10% or less, which is the criteria I use here (sans the minor candidates) to determine swing-statehood. But most of the states at the upper end of the margin are clearly not swing states, and a couple (Hawaii and Mississippi, for instance) are patently ridiculous. Here is the full list at ��10% ("DK" = "don't know," likely voters, MoE: ��4% for all polls):

If you've made it down this far, I'd say that this list conforms to expectations for the most part. A number of red states look tantalizingly close: WV tied, CO 1%, NV 2%, OH 2%. Some blue states are too close for comfort: PA 1%, MN 2%, OR 2%, ME 4%. At the far end of the list, if MS and HI are at 9% and 10% respectively, then I think NJ, DE, MD, MI and LA are also actually wider than these polls show - which is good news for us.

I don't know anything about ARG's LV model, and if it weren't for the fact that they put out an entire nation's worth of polls at once, I wouldn't be eager to post their results. So if you know anything about their methodology on this front, let us know. One thing which I do like is that they didn't poll Nader in states like AZ where he is definitively off the ballot.

P.S. The colors are ARG's, not mine - evidently, they mean what we'd expect, with purple being "swing." Their cutoff is apparently 8%.

Posted at 10:00 PM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Zogby's Latest Interactive

I missed Zogby's latest interactive offering yesterday. Gone is Bush's double-digit lead in Ohio, but he still holds it, along with WV, TN, MO and NV. Bush also leads in the "extra four" states that Zogby doesn't release to the public (but this is the Internet we're talking about, after all): VA, NC, CO & AZ. Those four states show incredibly close results - you've got to believe that Zogby leans Dem.

Posted at 07:29 PM in General | Comments (35) | Technorati

WI, MI, AZ Residents: Did You Ever Vote GOP?

The Boston Globe's op-ed page editor is putting together a feature on swing state voters. In particular, the Globe is looking for Kerry supporters who voted Republican in the past. (They're also looking for the reverse, but I doubt that very many such people visit this site.) If you live in Wisconsin, Michigan or Arizona (or another swing state) and fit this profile, shoot me an e-mail if you'd like me to put you in touch with the Globe.

Posted at 03:57 PM in General | Comments (4) | Technorati

Red Swing State Polls

Mason-Dixon also did a companion set of polls for six red states: MO, AZ, NH, OH, WV & NV. The results are available here. All six show Bush with a lead, and all but one show Bush with a lower unfavorability rating than Kerry (West Virginia is the exception).

But here's something that's really very odd. In the blue state polls I posted yesterday, Bush not only led in unfavorables in every state, but his rating was no higher than 13 points in all but one state (New Mexico was the outlier). Why is that bizarre? Because in the red states, his lowest unfave rating was 37%.

Now that I look at it a bit more closely, I'm inclined to think that MSNBC fucked up and swapped Bush's neutral and unfavorable ratings for the blue state polls. I'm wondering what else might be wrong - like Mason-Dixon's likely voter model. I know in the past Chris has commented that M-D has a GOP bias, but I haven't seen as clear evidence of this as with Gallup. Anyone care to chime in?

Posted at 02:01 PM in General | Comments (4) | Technorati

Monday, September 20, 2004

Blue Swing State Polls

NBC hired Mason-Dixon to poll six blue swing states: IA, MI, OR, PA, WI & NM. Results are available here. I'll look at them in more detail in a bit.

Posted at 07:18 PM in General | Comments (55) | Technorati

Saturday, September 18, 2004

CO, MO, PA Poll Roundup

DemFromCT has new polls for Colorado, Missouri & Pennsylvania.

Posted at 05:05 PM in Colorado, Missouri, Pennsylvania | Comments (29) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 18

(Yesterday���s Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.38 (49.19)
Bush: 48.62 (48.81)
Status: Toss-up
Polls included: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, IBD / CSM and Newsweek (re-weighted); CBS, Economist, Harris, ICR, Rasmussen and Zogby (un-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 197 solid (254, 197)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, OH and WI for Bush (57, with MO moving over 3 points); IA, NH, OR and PA for Kerry (39, with ME CD-2 moving over 3)

Not much change. The popular vote projections are going to move at a snail���s pace anyway, and there have been few new���or at least few new and different���state polls of late. Without undecideds allocated, Bush leads 46.86 to 45.97. The total number of undecideds is currently 5.17%. Right now, the election would hinge upon Ohio and Iowa (Kerry would need both to win, and both are projected under one point).

The number one assumption I am making in these projections is what Party ID turnout will look like. If I am right, then my projections will almost certainly hit very close to the target. If I am wrong, I could be well off. Although I originally had decided on a 39 D, 36 R, 25 I / O figure, right now I think that may be slightly off. In 2000, I / O���s only made up 23.2% of the voting public according to VNS exit polls, and with an even weaker third-party performance expected this time around, that number will probably drop even further (it dropped in both 1996 and 2000). As such, I think a better estimate of Party ID turnout would be 40.5 D, 37.5 R, and 22.0 I / O. This allocates 1.2% of the I / O self-identifier vote to the two major parties from 2000, with 0.2% going to the Democrats and 1.0% going to the Republicans. This feels right to me, and not just because it makes for fairly even numbers. Republicans have gained very slightly on Democrats in Party ID since the 2000 election, and I believe that Party ID turnout will be quite close to 40.5-37.5-22.0. If anyone is willing to offer a different estimate of Party ID, I am more than willing to hear it and the rationale behind it.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (8) | Technorati

Get Your Drink On

I am plugging Drinking Liberally. It's a new Democratic drinking club. That is such a smashingly good idea that I don't need to say anything more - except that someone needs to start a Washington, DC chapter, stat.

Posted at 12:17 AM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati

Friday, September 17, 2004

Making a Difference in the Field

I hope everyone who was celebrating Rosh Hashanah had a great holiday - I certainly did. I just wanted to quickly point your attention to this diary by Dan who went to Ohio for five days of volunteer work. He & a friend hit up several different offices, including one of ACT's and a couple of Kerry's. In addition to doing all kinds of campaign work, Dan & Amanda also managed to get Kerry HQ to take action to shore up a flagging satellite office. Nicely done. Just goes to show you can make a big difference if you spend a few days in a swing state.

Posted at 07:47 PM in Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 17

(Yesterday���s Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.19 (48.83)
Bush: 48.81 (49.17)
Status: Toss-up
Polls included: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, IBD / CSM, Newsweek, Pew (re-weighted); Economist, Harris, ICR, Rasmussen and Zogby (un-weighted)
Recent Polls not included: AP, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 197 solid (254, 190; MI becomes solid, MN becomes lean)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, MO, OH and WI for Bush (68, with FL, OH and WI moving under 3); IA, ME CD-2, NH, OR and PA for Kerry (40, with ME statewide moving over 3)

That���s right���on a day when a poll is released showing Bush up 13, Kerry gained in my projections. This is largely because the new Pew poll was added, and I was quickly able to track down the Gallup Party ID internals, which actually show the race tied at 48. These new polls also increased the size of the undecided poll, which always allows Kerry to inch up in my projections. Without the undecideds allocated, Bush leads 47.08 to 45.84.

The important trend in recent polls, with the exception of Gallup, is that they no longer show Bush rising. Instead, the race is static or Kerry is gaining. Whenever the trend is moving in Bush���s direction, I feel nervous even if Kerry is ahead or the race is still tied. After all, who knows for sure when the trend will change? However, now that the trend no longer favors Bush, I feel a lot more relaxed, even though the campaign is still essentially a toss-up. In fact, the campaign is such a toss-up, that if the election were held tomorrow, I would feel confident about projecting 216 electoral votes for Bush, 214 for Kerry, and 108 too close to call. To win, Kerry would need to piece together 56 electoral votes from FL, IA, ME CD-2, NH, OH, OR, PA and WI. That is impossible without winning one of the big three (FL, OH and PA).

Posted at 06:59 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (32) | Technorati

Action Time

I'll have the new GECC up later today. But first...

I believe the political blogosphere can be understood as different from existing campaign and political reporting primarily because our discussion is designed, and frequently does, to lead to action. Here is an overview of my theory on the subject. Let's spend a few hours turning theory into practice.

First, yesterday I wrote a long article detailing the excessive degree to which Gallup has favored Bush during this campaign. This article is getting some notice over at Dailykos, but let's spread the word to the media. DCG provides an excellent list of talking points to use when contacting the media--or even your friends and co-workers--about the Gallup poll. Also, slinkerwink provides an excellent list of media outlets to contact. No matter what other polls end up showing, we need to dent Gallup's public credibility until excessive qualifiers start appearing in every news release about their polls.

Second, when SSP and MyDD decided to try and start raising money for Ginny Schrader, we decided upon $2,000 as a great goal to achieve for the entire cycle. With $2,000, it would be as though we were one large donor giving the maximum. To date, through 20 donors, we have reached $980. We are almost halfway there! I'd like to meet our goal by the end of Q3, so we never have to nag you again. A $20 donation would put us over $1,000. Chip in today.

Third, please check out our sponsors. They all good causes.

Posted at 01:10 PM in Site News | Comments (2) | Technorati

Thursday, September 16, 2004

Rosh Hashanah Break & Open Thread

I won't be posting for the next couple of days because of the Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashanah. I'll be back at some point this weekend. Please feel free to use this as an open thread. Shanah Tova!

Posted at 05:30 PM in Site News | Comments (4) | Technorati

Jackpot!

American Research Group is coming out with polls for all 50 states plus DC. So far, there are only twenty states out, but that is still a lot of good info. Everything looks like it would be expected to look:

Kerry's up big in CA, HI, MD, MA, RI, VT and, to a slightly lesser extent, WA
Kerry's is up slightly in ME, MN and OR
Bush is up very slightly in CO
Bush is up huge in AK, ID, KY, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT and WY

The states I am most looking forward to are AZ, DE, MO, NJ, PA, OH, VA, WI and WV. It could help to clear up a lot of the weirdness in those states right now.

Posted at 04:49 PM in General | Comments (23) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 16

(Yesterday���s Number in Parenthesis)

National Vote Projection
Bush: 49.17 (49.01)
Kerry: 48.83 (48.99)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Used: ABC, CBS, Economist, Fox, Gallup, Harris, ICR, Newsweek, Rasmussen, Zogby
Recent Polls not used: AP, IBD / CSM, Time

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid (284, 196)
Kerry: 254, 190 solid (254, 207, losing Michigan from solid)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: WI to Bush; NH to Kerry
States Projected Under Three Points: MO for Bush (11, Florida moving over 3); IA, ME statewide and CD-2, NH, PA and OR for Kerry (42, Oregon moving under 3)

I am going to warn you right now: don���t expect the new GECC to be particularly exciting and show much movement on a daily basis. Previous studies have shown that fluctuations in Party ID in polls account overwhelmingly for the way they fluctuate during September and October. Since I have quite intentionally flattened out that aspect of polling, for a candidate to move even half a point in one day would be enormous. It is perhaps possible that things will speed up once other tracking polls besides Rasmussen come onto the scene, thereby reducing the size of the dataset, but even then I wouldn���t count on it.

Bush is ahead by 47.76-46.11 nationally when undecideds are not allocated. Then again, if I wasn���t allocating undecideds I wouldn���t be using likely voter models, which would probably show something closer than 47.76-46.11. If I had to guess right now, I would say that there is at least a twenty percent chance that the winner of the popular vote in this election was going to lose the Electoral College. While that person is more likely to be Kerry, it could also be Bush, especially if both Florida and Pennsylvania was to buck the national trend (which would make Kerry impervious to losing two out of three from Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin). With New Hampshire and Nevada as prime pickup opportunities for Kerry, the true nightmare scenario is still Bush winning in the House after a tied Electoral College.

Bush moved up today after the introduction of the Harris and Economist polls by following up a very good day in Rasmussen on Tuesday with a Wednesday that equaled his best day during the convention. Of course, by Sunday, both days will be removed, and things will probably be close again. The Rasmussen poll keeps me from feeling euphoric about the Harris poll. Still, when the most historically accurate pollster in the land shows Kerry up one, I���m inclined to smile a bit.

New Jersey has replaced California in my twenty-two state-by-state projections. Right now, I have Kerry up 6.1 in the Garden state.

Posted at 02:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (7) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, September 15

National Vote Projection
Bush: 49.01
Kerry: 48.99
Status: Toss-up
Polls Incluided: ABC, CBS, Fox, Gallup, ICR, Newsweek, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Bush: 284, 196 solid
Kerry: 254, 207 solid
States Changing Hands from 2000: NH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, MO for Bush (38); ME CD-2, NH and PA for Kerry (26)

The last several weeks have brought me into closer contact and discussion with a wider range of statisticians, political scientists and pollsters than I ever imagined would happen for this election. The result has been a complete rethinking of the way I am going to project the Presidential Election. In an effort to improve the transparency, statistical validity, accuracy and purpose of the General Election Cattle Call, I have almost completely revamped my methodology.

The new results may not look possible based on current top-sheet polls results, but I feel pretty darn good about this system. And, yeah, I know it seems like I either slightly or massively alter the way I do these things ever other week, but I am always incorporating the new information I learn and discover about elections, demographics and statistics. Every alteration is a good one, I hope.

Right now, I am not projecting a large battleground. In fact, it is really just Pennsylvania and Florida. Kerry would need both in order to win.

Posted at 04:34 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (12) | Technorati

Undecideds Souring on Bush

This poll out today from Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center ought to help re-establish a positive outlook for November. Undecideds have measurably dropped their support for Bush. According to the poll, "President George W. Bush's approval rating declined to 44 percent from 56 percent among undecided voters since the Republican National Convention." This is obviously a significant drop in support.

I also thought that this bit was important in light of Kerry's excellent assault on Bush's economic record today: "The poll found 32 percent of uncommitted, or 'persuadable,' voters approved of Bush's handling of the economy and 63 percent disapproved. In August, 39 percent approved and 54 percent disapproved." The only bad news was the continued support that Bush gets on terror issues.

Posted at 02:38 PM in General | Comments (8) | Technorati

Johnny Sunshine Does Good in OR

Our boy John Edwards toured Oregon yesterday, raising cash and getting good press coverage. Jonathan over at Basie has the full 411.

Posted at 12:19 PM in Oregon | Comments (3) | Technorati

Two More Gallup Polls (MI & WI)

Gallup hits two midwestern states. First up, Michigan (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 50
Bush: 43
Other/Undecided: 7
(MoE: ��4%)

Nader gets a point here, in case you were curious. Gallup's notoriously right-leaning likely voter model doesn't help Bush much here - with LVs, it's 50-44. The jerky boys at CNN think that a six-point gap with a four-point MoE means the race is "too close to call." Time for some basic math lessons (though virtually all the media is guilty of this flawed reasoning).

And here's a bit of welcome turn of events: RVs oppose Michigan's gay marriage-banning amendment by a margin of 51-44. I have no idea if either side has done any advertising on this issue, so this figure may jump around a bit by Nov. 2nd.

It's a good news-bad news set of polls, so now I'm gonna give you the bad news, in the form of Wisconsin (registered voters, late August in parens):

Kerry: 45 (49)
Bush: 50 (46)
Other/Undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ��4%)

I never base my beliefs about where a state will head on a single poll - but an eight-point swing kinda sucks. As we get further and further from the RNC, I'm less inclined to believe in any kind of bounce, especially since national polling hasn't shown much of one. The conventional wisdom says that WI and IA are our two most vulnerable blue states, and this poll certainly doesn't seem to disprove that.

So what happens if we lose WI? Well, assuming nothing else changes, Florida would rescue us, and Ohio would also, just barely - we'd get 270 EVs on the nose that way. If we lose both WI & IA and win FL... then we're again back to 270. This analysis excludes NH, which most observers believe will turn blue this year. An unlikely but possible way to win without WI & IA would be to take NH, NV and OH, for a landslide win with a whopping 272 EVs. I'll take it.

Posted at 12:12 AM in Michigan, Wisconsin | Comments (20) | Technorati

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll

I have veered away from intensive poll-watching recently, but I came upon this Rasmussen Poll and thought it was worth posting. It has Bush up by 1 in Pennsylvania. Personally, this is good news. Remember, absent extraordinary circumstances, right now should be Bush's peak. Also, Rasmussen tends to be kind to George. I think Kerry is in great position to retain PA. (Likely voters, August in parens.)

Kerry: 48 (49)
Bush: 49 (45)
Other/Undecided: 4 (6)
(MoE: ��5%)

Also, there is this: "Forty-two percent (42%) believe the country is heading in the right direction. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe we have gotten off on the wrong track." Inevitably, folks who believe we are heading in the wrong direction will vote for change.

Posted at 11:34 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (39) | Technorati

Monday, September 13, 2004

New Ad Slots Available & Open Thread

A quick note to potential advertisers: I've created two new slots (one in each corner) for "featured" advertisements. Each spot will be reserved for just one ad.

And please feel free to use this as an open thread.

Posted at 11:51 AM in Site News | Comments (11) | Technorati

Zogby Polls (ME & OR)

I'm sorry that I don't have time for a longer post. Zogby has a new (telephone) poll out in Maine. Bush and Kerry are tied at 43% apiece. Larry Sabato (of whom I'm no fan) says that this is due to a convention bounce, but given that the poll was done on Sept. 9th, I'm wondering how much of an effect the convention still might have had. One detail for those of you obsessed with Maine's EV-splitting system: Northern ME appears to have substantially similar numbers to southern ME.

Also, I missed a Zogby Oregon poll from last week (also a traditional telephone survey). Kerry led Bush by a hefty 53-43. This poll was taken during the convention, so go figure.

Posted at 11:40 AM in Maine, Oregon | Comments (6) | Technorati

Sunday, September 12, 2004

What is Canvassing Like?

When it comes to get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, nothing is more important than door-to-door canvassing. If you haven't done it yet but you're wondering what the experience is like, ebradlee10 has a good diary about spending the day canvassing the Philly burbs with ACT.

Posted at 11:18 PM in Activism, Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Absentee Balloting Open to Fraud

As if electronic voting machines with questionable security systems & no voter-verifiable paper trails weren't enough to worry about, the New York Times offers this survey of the absentee ballot laws in the swing states. The majority of these battleground states have very lax laws (such as not requiring authenticating witness signatures) which could leave absentee balloting open to serious fraud. Seven swing states even allow political parties to gather completed ballots. Yikes.

And it's not a minor concern, either: As many as one in four voters may vote absentee this year, as a result of numerous state laws which don't require any excuse in order to obtain an absentee ballot. I think these kind of laws are a bad thing. I'm voting absentee this year, but only because I have to. I'd much prefer to actually visit my polling place. Voting is one of the few civic exercises left to us (apart from jury duty) where every type of person from every conceivable background comes together to all do the same thing. I think these sorts of activities are good for a nation's soul, and it saddens me to see this particular one get diminished.

Posted at 11:10 PM in General | Technorati

Rasmussen: 13-Point Lead for Bush in NC

Just gonna provide the link for this one: Rasmussen shows Bush up 55-42 in NC. SUSA just had Kerry four points back. Someone's gotta be wrong. Rasmussen also has an agreggate battleground states poll-of-polls going, but you need to be a premium subscriber to get the full details, so I probably won't be discussing it.

Posted at 05:51 PM in North Carolina | Comments (5) | Technorati

Saturday, September 11, 2004

To Weight, or Not to Weight

One polling-related topic that has come up a lot lately is the issue of weighting by party identification. That is, if a polling outfit does a survey and the sample contains, say, too many Republicans for the given population, should the pollsters adjust the numbers according to what they believe the actual party ratios are? This issue came up most prominently when the LA Times released a poll back in June that was very pro-Kerry, had a seemingly outsize number of Democrats in the sample, and was not weighted to reflect this.

Into this debate charges Alan Reifman, a professor of Human Development and Family Studies at Texas Tech University. He has the most comprehensive essay I've read to date on whether polling firms should weight or not weight. He lucidly presents the arguments on both sides. If you're a serious poll junkie, check it out.

Posted at 12:46 AM in General | Comments (6) | Technorati

Two More SUSA Polls (MO & PA)

There's no way I'm going to be able to keep up with all the polls. The prolific Survey USA makes things especially difficult for an obsessive poll-watcher like myself - they use an entirely automated system to collect their samples, so they can keep churning out polls as fast as their robo-dialers can make calls. They've released two more swing state polls today (in addition to several that cover non-swing states). Hopefully I'll get the numbers in order this time.

First up is Missouri (PDF) (likely voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 46 (47)
Bush: 48 (48)
Other/undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ��3.9%)

As in Ohio, Bush and Kerry do almost equally well among their respective bases (90%+ for both), and Bush leads among independents, 49-40.

Perhaps not surprisingly, 80% of Bush voters say they are voting "for" Bush, while only 19% say they are voting "against" Kerry. For Kerry, though, only 41% say they are voting for him, while 56% say they are voting against Bush. I wish SUSA included questions about favorability, because then these numbers would mean a lot more. If Bush's unfavorables are high, then this sort of split is nothing to be concerned about - it means the "anti" vote will come out in force.

SUSA's results also show a deadlocked Governor's race. In a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent Democrat Bob Holden actually lost his primary to challenger Claire McCaskill. McCaskill, though, went from a five-point margin against Republican Matt Blunt in August to a one-point margin this time around. We can definitely hold on to the Governor's mansion here. The Senate outlook, however, is fairly bleak.

Missouri is not a terribly likely pickup for us - I certainly think we have a better shot at (bigger) Ohio. And I don't see us taking MO but not OH. Nonetheless, this is a state in which we want to remain competitive, given the other important races here. And a final note: This poll was taken not long after the Republican convention, at a point when Bush should be riding highest. So the fact that things are still so close here is very good news for us.

And now, Pennsylvania (PDF) (likely voters, early August in parens):

Kerry: 49 (53)
Bush: 47 (41)
Other/undecided: 5 (7)
(MoE: ��3.8%)

Those trendlines sure are ugly, but a lot has happened since this poll was taken - not least of all the Swift Boat Liars and the Republican convention (which appear to have had a greater affect here than in MO). At the same time, I don't think any reasonable person could have expected Kerry to win PA by 12 points, so that early August poll strikes me as something of an outlier - it was taken right after the DNC.

Speaking of the Swift Vets, SUSA shows those with a military/veteran background preferring Bush 50-46 in this poll. The previous poll had Kerry winning this group 52-42. I'd caution against reading too much into this particular observation, though, for two reasons: First, again, the August poll seems too pro-Kerry to me, and second, for polling sub-groups, margins of error can skyrocket because you're likely dealing with tiny numbers of people.

As above, both candidates do just about equally well with their base (86% for Bush, 82% for Kerry). I bring this up again partly because SUSA actually provides this info, but also because a lot of polls seem to show Bush doing significantly better with Republicans than Kerry does with Democrats (on the order of 15 points or so). At least we aren't seeing evidence of that here.

One side note: The Senate results again are quite disappointing here - SUSA has Hoeffel back 18 points. Like many other people, I wonder how things might have been different had Arlen Specter lost his primary.

Posted at 12:21 AM in Missouri, Pennsylvania | Comments (5) | Technorati

Friday, September 10, 2004

Two SUSA Polls: OH & NC

[Note: I originally had the Ohio numbers swapped. Bush is ahead 50-47.]

Survey USA has new polls out for Ohio and North Carolina.

Ohio first (PDF) (likely voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 47
Bush: 50
Other/Undecided: 4
(MoE: ��3.8%)

SUSA is one of the more prolific polling outfits, so I'm surprised that this is their first survey of Ohio. Without trendlines, it's hard to know where this poll falls on the map, but the results seem to comport with everyone's expectations. Of course, you can never really how a given firm's definition of "likely voters" can skew their results.

Kerry apparently has the base fired up here: He gets 89% of Democrats, while Bush gets 91% of Republicans. Somewhat surprising (to me, anyhow) is that Bush leads 51-41 among independents. That might make sense, though, if that group includes swing voters who might be easily swayed by all the GOP convention coverage from last week.

And North Carolina (PDF) (likely voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 46 (45)
Bush: 50 (51)
Other/Undecided: 5 (4)
(MoE: ��4.2%)

Naysayers, you're gonna have a lot of `splainin' to do. Since Edwards was tapped, no poll from any outfit that I'm aware of has shown the race wider than seven points, and most show it a lot closer. (The only exception was a Gallup poll which showed likely voters preferring Bush by a 15-point margin. As we know, though, Gallup's LV model leans heavily Republican, for whatever reason - and, not surprisingly, their RVs showed a seven-point race.)

SUSA actually once had the race out at seven points, back in late July, just before the DNC. So if we extend the trendlines back that far, the Kerry-Edwards ticket has shown gains in two successive polls. This isn't a fluke, either. Democratic Gov. Mike Easley now has a 15-point advantage in his race, up from 7 in August, and Erskine Bowles, running for Senate, saw his lead jump from 8 points to 10.

As I always caution, I don't think it's likely that we'll win NC. And I think there are better battlegrounds for us to spend (most of) our money on. But there's no denying that we're competitive here, and that barring any shocking developments, Democrats will do well in North Carolina this fall - if not at the presidential level, then certainly in the Senate and State House. I should add that the NC House of Representatives is tied - 60 Dems to 60 Repubs. A strong year for the Blue Team in this state could definitely push this branch of government our way.

Posted at 03:22 AM in North Carolina, Ohio | Comments (14) | Technorati

Thursday, September 09, 2004

John Kerry is a Patriot

No, really, I mean it. Check out the decal on the side of the New England Patriots' helmet and tell me that's not John Kerry in profile:

The NFL season begins tonight. Appropriately enough, the Super Bowl champion Patriots (who of course hail from Kerry's home state) play the first game. I'm a Jets fan, but I'll take this as a good omen anyway!

(Thanks to NE_Patriots for the great observation!)

UPDATE: Once again, proving that sports are always right, the Pats won tonight. John Kerry's victory is clearly next.

Posted at 09:44 PM in General | Comments (8) | Technorati

Show Ginny Schrader Some Love!

As Chris's detailed post below demonstrates, PA's newly open 8th Congressional District is a great pickup opportunity for us. That's why MyDD & the Swing State Project are officially "adopting" Ginny Schrader, the Democratic challenger about whom you've already heard a great deal.

We've already raised almost $900 through ActBlue. Our goal is to ultimately raise $2000 for Ginny. So you can expect fundraising nags from us, as well as up-close campaign coverage from Chris.

Schrader was also selected as a member of the DKos Dozen today, so you know she's for real. The blogosphere helped put this race on the map when the incumbent decided not to seek re-election - and we can help put Ginny in Congress if we do our part now. So give today - small contributions add up quickly!

P.S. As you may have noticed, I've added a direct contribution button to the Schrader campaign in the right-hand column. That goes straight to our ActBlue page - very handy! You can also punch an amount into the box just below in this post to make a contribution:

UPDATE: I just tossed in my $25.01 via ActBlue - now it's your turn.

Posted at 03:56 PM in Pennsylvania | Technorati

Ginny Schrader for Congress, PA-08

Here are the trial heat, benchmark and vulnerability poll results from PA-08, where Ginny Schrader is taking on Michael Fitzpatrick in an open, Republican-held seat. All of this information comes to me through internal polls from Ginny Schrader's campaign, and thus there is no link. For starters, here are some outside factors:

Presidential Race
Kerry: 48
Bush: 44

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat: 42
Republican: 41

The Republican-led Congress receives a 52% negative job rating.

Right now, Fitzpatrick leads in name recognition, which not surprisingly means that he leads in the trial heat:

While Republican Mike Fitzpatrick has higher name identification than Democrat Ginny Schrader, neither is known to a majority of voters. Fitzpatrick currently leads by a 46% to 30% margin with nearly one-quarter (24%) of all voters still undecided. Democrats have a natural advantage with undecided voters on the generic ballot by a 37% to 30% margin.

With that level of unknowns, clearly this is a highly volatile race, and Ginny's chances to rise are excellent. Further, here is the main benchmark result, which reveals Ginny's strength:

When voters are read the following biographical paragraph on the two candidates, Ginny Schrader takes a 48% to 45% lead over Mike Fitzpatrick.

Here are the bios:

Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican from Middletown, is a Bucks County Commissioner and a lawyer. Fitzpatrick says that as a County Commissioner, he has worked to prevent domestic violence, secure flood relief for local families. and pass the county's land-conservation program. In Congress, he says he will fight for better jobs and economic development, and more help for local governments to preserve open space.

Ginny Schrader, a Democrat from Lower Makefield, is a former Vice President of a financial services company. Schrader says she understands the needs of working families because she has lived in their shoes. She was a single mother who went to college at night, and struggled to make ends meet before becoming a successful businesswoman. In Congress, she says she will fight to control healthcare costs, improve education, and create new jobs

Fitzpatrick's main vulnerability comes from his extreme anti-choice stance:

A majority (54%) of 8th district voters are pro-choice, with an additional 28% favoring exceptions like rape, incest and the life of the mother. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick is pro-life and opposes the right of a woman to have an abortion even in the case of rape and incest. Two-thirds of pro-choice voters say they would either "definitely" vote against (30%) or "probably" vote against a pro-life candidate. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters say they would be less likely to vote for Fitzpatrick when they hear about his extreme positions on abortion, including 43% of Fitzpatrick's current supporters.

So the situation here is really quite simple. If Ginny can raise her name recognition, get her message out and make Fitzpatrick's extreme anti-choice position clear, then she will win and Democrats will pick up a seat in the House. If her name recognition remains low, then she will probably lose the district. Thus, raising her name recognition and getting her message out are the keys to victory. We can do this through volunteering, publicity, and, of course, through donations.

We are asking readers of MyDD and the Swing State Project to make donating to Ginny Schrader their number one Congressional donation priority. You can make donations either through the ActBlue page we have set up for Ginny (where we've already raised over $900).

We can make a difference in this race, a difference between picking up a seat for a real progressive or allowing it to backslide toward an archconservative. We helped bring this race to the fore - let's help close the deal as well. Our small donations of $25-$50 make a huge difference. Donate today.

Posted at 03:05 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 9

(9/4 Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.43 (50.30)
Kerry: 48.57 (47.70)
Other: 2.00 (2.00)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral College Projection
Kerry: 291, 179 solid (254, 169)
Bush: 247, 196 solid (184, 194)
States Changing Hands from 2000: FL and NH to Kerry
States Projected By Less Than Three Points: NV and OH for Bush (26); FL, IA, ME CD-2, NH, NM, OR, PA and WI (82)

Kerry holds a lead in the Electoral College largely due to a weird statistical quirk. While Bush is ahead in the national vote projection (49.43-48.57), solid EVs (196-179), EV's by more than three (221-205), right now I project almost every single close state to swing Kerry's way. There would be some sweet justice in such a result, and hopefully, if this did take place, it would finally lead to some serious electoral reform in this country (although that would be unlikely).

The scenario is actually more likely that many of us realize. While most recent polls have shown Bush ahead nationally, Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all showed Kerry with a lead in the "battleground." One problem with Bush's strategy of solidifying his base while Kerry goes after swing voters is that while it will probably lead to red states looking a lot more strong and blue ones, it also concedes Kerry an advantage in the legally binding purple states.

I calculated these results before the new CBS and ABC polls that will be out in full by tonight or tomorrow morning, which probably means that Bush will move back ahead tomorrow. These figures also do not include the new Rasmussen state polls that will be coming out later today.

Posted at 01:44 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (10) | Technorati

Four Gallup Polls (MO, OH, PA & WA)

Gallup released four new polls today, for Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Washington. All were taken after the convention, and all pushed leaners. (The questioning: "If undecided: 'As of today, do you lean more toward Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats, or Bush and Cheney, the Republicans?'") That means that a certain amount of Bush's support has to be quite soft. Polling firms like to do this because it produces "cleaner" data, but I actually think it makes the picture look murkier.

Missouri first (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 53
Other/Undecided: 5
(MoE: ��4%)

Gallup also polled LVs here, who favored Bush by a 55-41 margin. In mid-July, Gallup had the race tied at 48-48 among LVs. The fact is, though, we know that Bush will not triple or quadruple his 2000 margin in Missouri this time around.

And Ohio (registered voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 47 (52)
Bush: 48 (42)
Other/Undecided: 5 (6)
(MoE: ��4%)

Similarly here, we knew that Kerry wasn't going to win Ohio by ten points, so it's hardly surprising to see this race tighten up. What is very intesting is how skewed the LV numbers are for OH. Gallup has Bush up 52-44 among LVs, but as you can see, just one point up among RVs. And again, Bush isn't going to win OH by eight points (no matter what Zogby might say), so this just seems like pretty conclusive proof that Gallup's likely voter models skew absurdly Republican.

On to Pennsylvania (registered voters, late August in parens):

Kerry: 47 (49)
Bush: 47 (44)
Other/Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

Unlike OH, the LVs don't show a big jump for Bush - he's up 48-47. However, back in August, the LVs had Bush doing four points better and Kerry doing two points worse than the RV horserace that month (which was, as indicated above, 49-44 Kerry).

And finally Washington (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 51
Bush: 43
Other/Undecided: 6
(MoE: ��4%)

The other/undecided category includes two points for Nader. (The other polls didn't ask about him.) For once, LVs don't show a big difference: 52-44 Kerry.

Detailed poll results are available here.

Posted at 12:52 PM in Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Washington | Comments (1) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 08, 2004

NM-01: Romero Newest Member of DKos Dozen

The other day, when I was writing up my post on the latest ABQ Journal poll in New Mexico, I came across another set of polls from the same newspaper that covered the state's Congressional races. So I headed over to OurCongress.org (a great resource - check it out if you haven't yet) and wrote up a quick summary of the race in NM's highly competitive first district.

As it turns out, Markos added Richard Romero, the Dem challenger in NM-01, to the DailyKos Dozen today. Romero is a very worthy candidate running in a district where Dems outnumber Republicans & Gore actually won in 2000. His opponent is the hateful Heather Wilson, whose biggest priority appears to be regulating Super Bowl halftime shows. There is no reason why a Republican should be representing this district, so go ahead and give Romero some turkee.

Posted at 03:55 PM in New Mexico | Technorati

AZ Republic Poll: Things Looking Bad for Kerry

It looks as though the Arizona Republic wins the prize: They're releasing the first swing-state poll conducted entirely after the Republican convention. And it isn't pretty for our team (likely voters, 7/30 - 8/1 in parens):

Kerry: 38 (45)
Bush: 54 (48)
Other/undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

We went from three points back to a whopping 16 points in just a month. No link is available yet - I pulled this one off of Polling Report - and there are no other internals available. I'm guessing, though, that Kerry's unfavorables have spiked. I say this because Bush's increase came entirely at Kerry's expense - the undecideds haven't budged. Of course, it's possible that this transfer of support took place because Bush's favorables went up, but somehow, that just doesn't seem to be as compelling an explanation.

Of course, I should caution that this is the widest lead we've yet seen in AZ, by a pretty substantial margin (suggesting to me that this may be a bit of an outlier). And it's only the second time since early June that Bush has registered over 50% in a straight horserace here. And obviously, this poll is definitely inflated by the RNC - but the last AZ Republic poll was taken right after the DNC, so that might have been an artificially close result.

But at the same time, this is pretty discouraging. I still firmly believe that Arizona is marching blue-ward - it just may be a little early to be whipping out the cans of teal paint. The silver lining, of course, is that we don't need AZ to win - in fact, I'd say it's not part of any non-landslide (or at least, hefty margin) victory scenario. But I'd still like to be able to threaten Bush here, help out our Congressional candidates (particularly Paul Babbitt in AZ-01), and lay the groundwork for future presidential victories in this state.

UPDATE: Larry in comments provides a link to the story.

Posted at 03:40 PM in Arizona | Comments (26) | Technorati

Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?

"Quis custodet ipsos custodes?" goes the Latin saying - "Who watches the watchmen?" The answer here is Ed Fitzgerald, who has another issue of his Electoral College Survey out. Forty-eight would-be Nostradamuses are included, and for the first time I can recall, a majority show Bush ahead.

Ed thinks that this is not the result of any sort of convention bounce, due to the timing (ie, pre-RNC) of most of the polls that the prognositcators rely on. So if there is a bounce, it won't show up in Ed's meta-survey for another week. I await with bated breath.

Posted at 11:59 PM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati

New Zogby Out

New Zogby poll available here. Bush is leading in AR, WV, TN, OH. His leads are all very big in the last three, including 11 points in Ohio. Kerry's leads are outside the MoE in only MI, NM, OR & WA. He holds leads of less than one point in FL, MO & NV.

Given the dates of this poll (Aug. 30th through Sep. 3rd), this seems like a pretty weak performance for Bush. Zogby, however, says that these results show Bush gaining & Kerry weakening. And what happened to Zogby's promise to include more battleground states? The link to his site makes reference to "20 states," but the WSJ interactive site only shows the same 16.

UPDATE: Results for the missing four states: AZ: K45-B50; CO: K46-B46; NC: K47-B50; VA: K46-B51. And yeah, I have a very hard time believing Bush is up by 11 in Ohio.

Posted at 06:32 PM in General | Comments (31) | Technorati

Rasmussen Polls for MI & MO

More polls from Rasmussen that were taken before, during & after the GOP convention. The first is for Michigan (likely voters, August in parens):

Kerry: 48 (50)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 4
Other: 4
(MoE: ��5%)

Favorability ratings are Kerry at 54% and Bush at 49%.

And Missouri (likely voters, August in parens):

Kerry: 42 (44)
Bush: 48 (49)
Undecided: 7 (4)
Other: 2 (3)
(MoE: ��5%)

I almost hesitate to post this poll, as the sample was collected over a two-week period - but you can judge its validity yourself. For some reason, Show Me State Democrats aren't cottoning to Kerry - he gets 74% of the Dem vote, while Bush gets 90% of the GOP vote.

Posted at 04:17 PM in Michigan, Missouri | Comments (10) | Technorati

State Legislature Battlegrounds

Though this site has focused almost entirely on national politics, state & local races play a hugely important role as well. The Christian Coalition, for one, has had a lot of success at the local level (think school boards) in promoting its agenda. And I'll say that Rudy Giuliani probably had a greater direct effect on my life in the 90s than Bill Clinton did. (Get well soon, Big Dawg.) Though they lack the panache of the big national races, the outcomes in smaller elections can have a large impact.

With that in mind, I point you to this interesting diary by Delaware Dem about the state legislatures that are shaping up to be big battlegrounds. Control of many state Houses and Senates hangs in the balance. Among other things, state legislatures play a big role in Congressional redistricting (see Texas). In a state like Indiana, we could suffer badly if the Democrats lose their slim lead in the lower house & another Tom DeLay steps forward to hijack the redistricting process.

Since these issues are rarely covered in the media, I imagine many people might not even be aware of whether their state legislatures are up for grabs. So I encourage you check out Del Dem's list - and if you see your state on there, be sure to remind your friends & family why it's important to vote for the downticket races as well.

Posted at 01:45 PM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati

Monday, September 06, 2004

Small Bush Lead in NM

We have a second poll which straddles the first part of the GOP convention, this time from the Albuquerque Journal (conducted by Research and Polling, a New Mexican polling outfit). Here are the results (registered voters, no trendlines):

Kerry: 42
Bush: 45
Undecided: 8
Other: 5
(MoE: ��3%)

The "Other" category includes a point each for Nader, Green Party candidate David Cobb and Libertarian Party candidate Michael Badnarik, who some think might actually hurt Bush in neighboring Arizona. You should definitely click on the ABQ Journal story link above - it contains much more internal information about the poll.

Ordinarily, I'd say that the high undecideds (8%) look good for our team. But Bush actually clocks in well ahead of Kerry in the favorability department: 48-42 for Bush vs. 42-47 for Kerry. So if this poll is anything to go by, it may be a pretty big challenge to bring those undecideds home to us.

On the flipside, the pollster (Brian Sanderoff) himself points out that Bush likely benefitted in this survey because of (a) the Republican convention (of course) and (b) the fact that Bush made three stops in NM the day before the poll-taking began. According to the Journal, there was extensive media coverage of these trips. (John Edwards was also in town at the same time.)

The Hispanic vote here is also interesting - 12% are undecided (whereas only 5% of Anglo voters are), which is good news for us. However, 32% said they would vote for Bush. This is below Rove's magical 35% threshold (if Bush gets over that mark among Latinos, the GOP apparently believes he has the election in the bag), but is still pretty high.

Sanderoff has an observation about these numbers which I'm in no position to either confirm or dispute: He says that for a Republican to win in NM, he has to get "at least a quarter of the Democrats and a quarter of the Hispanics." Assuming this is true, then this poll is, in fact, good news for Bush (he's getting 24% of Dems as well). But note Sanderoff said "at least" - that means these factors are necessary but not sufficient. I don't know what else Bush would need to do to win here, but it seems that 25% inroads amongst Dems and Hispanics alone won't do it.

Lastly, I should point out that Kerry leads among independents, 43-31. This survey also covered NM's Congressional races - check out this companion story in today's paper if you are interested in the results. Of interest: Incumbent GOP Rep. Heather Wilson leads challenger Richard Romero 49-43 in the 1st CD. Our Congress lists it as one of the top house races in the country.

Posted at 12:46 PM in New Mexico | Comments (18) | Technorati

Sunday, September 05, 2004

Rasmussen: Tie in MN

The first quasi-post RNC swing state poll - for Minnesota - is out, courtesy of Scott Rasmussen. This is not one of Rasmussen's weird month-long polls, though it did take them a week to collect their sample. This means that part of the survey was taken before the Republican convention and part was taken after. Without further ado (likely voters, August in parens):

Kerry: 46 (48)
Bush: 46 (44)
Other/Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ��5%)

I don't know how much stock you can put into the trendline numbers because those are from one of those bizarre all-month polls. The MoE is also pretty hefty. And given the enormous scrutiny being applied lately to likely voter models, I suggest a liberal application of salt before digesting this poll.

I'm not a Rasmussen subscriber, so I don't have access to the full internals, but we do know that Kerry (54%) & Bush (52%) are pretty evenly matched in favorability. I do wonder what the unfavorable numbers look like, though.

P.S. Rasmussen's national tracking poll has Bush up 48-46. I may not be so fond of his firm, but Rasmussen and Time/Newsweek can't both be right. Ralph in comments below has more on this.

(Thanks to rimjob.)

Posted at 09:18 PM in Minnesota | Comments (11) | Technorati

Saturday, September 04, 2004

Comment Double-Posting Problems?

I've been noticing more double-posted comments on the site than usual. Things may be loading a tiny bit slower due to the BlogAds, so I just ask for your patience when you hit the "Post" button. If you are getting any genuine errors when you are posting, please let me know in the comments.

Posted at 07:44 PM in Site News | Comments (2) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 4

(Previous Numbers in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 50.30 (47.98)
Kerry: 47.70 (50.02)
Status: Toss-up

Electoral College Projection
Bush: 284, 194 solid (252, 161)
Kerry: 254, 169 solid (286, 210)
States Changing Hands from 2000: WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, FL, NV and WI for Bush (48); IA, ME CD-1, MN, NH and NM for Kerry (27)

On the strength of a very real convention bounce, Bush has retaken the lead. In fact, this is his second largest lead in the national vote projection ever. He has passed Kerry in electoral votes, solid electoral votes, and even semi-solid electoral votes (states by more than three). Right now, conflicting results from, on the one hand, ARG, Zogby and Rassmussen and, on the other hand, Newsweek and Time, keep the race close. Also, the internals of the race have shifted toward Bush, as wrong track numbers are now only around 5 or 6 points in the red, and Bush's job approval is now clearly in the black.

I expect things to get worse before they get better. I have little doubt that when Gallup starts their tracking poll this week, it will show Bush up by 5-12. We will have to see what the future brings, but remember that right now Kerry is still close. Keep fighting the good fight.

Posted at 02:17 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (36) | Technorati

Sesame Street Polling

I'm sure you remember the classic song from that seminal show, Sesame Street, which went (in part): One of these things is not like the others/One of these things just doesn't belong. Well, now it's time to play our game:

So, who're you gonna believe? This site is a Democratic site, but I do my best not to cherry-pick or engage in overly optimistic spin. This Time poll, though, is just a bit hard to believe, based on everything we've seen over this whole, very, very long campaign season. I'm gonna wait until we get a few more data points before even thinking about panicking. Even Bob Dole got a fifteen-point bounce out of his convention, according to ABC News at the time. You think that was legit?

(Graphic from the front page of PollingReport.)

UPDATE: Ruy Teixeira, the #1 authority on all things poll-related, raises all sorts of questions about the Time poll, concluding that "[t]he simplest hypothesis then is that the Time poll, for this period, is exceptionally pro-Bush and therefore should be viewed with skepticism." The bigger problem, of course, is that this one skewed poll becomes a powerful GOP (and media) talking point for days. Fortunately, it's Labor Day weekend and no one's paying attention. And since I'm all but certain this poll doesn't reflect the reality on the ground, it can only help us if the GOP gets over-confident as a result of one survey.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Newsweek has released a poll which shows a similar Bush lead. Again, this poll pushed leaners, which in my mind makes the bottom-line results questionable.

Posted at 01:00 PM in General | Comments (8) | Technorati

Thursday, September 02, 2004

Convention Open Thread

I don't even have a TV at the moment, so I couldn't watch Bush's speech even if I wanted to. Not that I want to. But this is the moment we've all been waiting for: the final two months of the campaign, the post-conventions, post-Labor Day season. Stay involved, give money, give time - and push your family and friends to do the same. And if you have any thoughts on the convention, or what the homestretch will look like from here on out, share `em here.

Posted at 10:31 PM in General | Comments (43) | Technorati

Wednesday, September 01, 2004

Kerry Ad Buy Hints at Battleground Locations

The Kerry campaign is now set to spend two-thirds of its post-RNC cash on ad buys - $50m of the $75m they'll get in public financing, which is all the cash they'll have (except for any change that was still on-hand prior to the DNC) until election day. The first ads are slated to go up in seven states: OH on Friday, then FL, IA, NM, PA, NH and WI next week. Four of those states are Gore states, and a fifth (NH) ought to be considered a Kerry state. So this means we're playing defense, which isn't necessarily a bad sign, but isn't necessarily a good one, either.

Kerry's being very smart about this ad buy, though: He's purchasing the ads now, while prices are still cheap, as the article points out - but he can always adjust his buys later, if need be. So this means the campaign is already buying ads for thirteen other states, even though they won't air until later this fall. The Gore states: MN, OR, WA, ME and MI. The Bush states: MO, NV, AZ, LA, CO, AR, NC and WV. A bit frustratingly, Virginia isn't on this list, even though Kerry's already spent $2.5 mil there. I don't understand why you'd stick with LA over VA, given what the polls show. But maybe Kerry will change his mind, or maybe the 527s will step up the plate here.

(Thanks to reader Chris.)

Posted at 09:59 PM in General | Comments (24) | Technorati

Another Quiet Period for State Polls

Around the time of the Dem convention, we didn't see too many state polls. It looks like pollsters have similarly gone quiet. SUSA's most recent polls are from 8/25, and the only new material available on Polling Report (subscription required) are surveys from Strategic Vision, a Republican outfit. Even the prolific Rasmussen is on hiatus.

So I guess us poll junkies will have to wait a few more days before we have our next batch of polling heroin. In the meantime, you should check out Ed Fitzgerald's latest meta-projection. I can't imagine how much work he puts into it, consider there are now 46 sites in his survey. (Everyone has an opinion, eh?) I especially appreciated this useful graph, which shows that most watchers think the race is getting tighter:

I'll be really curious to see who winds up with the most accurate projection in the end.

Posted at 02:40 PM in General | Comments (10) | Technorati

Convention Bounce Predictions, Round 2

It's too hard to predict convention bounces in individual states, but if you care to hazard a national guess as to what kind of spike (if any) Bush will get out of the RNC, go ahead and do so here. I think, like Kerry's, it will necessarily be smaller than usual. I also think that Bush, because he's playing so heavily to his base, can actually expect a bounce in national polling that isn't equalled by an improvement in swing states (because much of his numbers growth will be in the reddest of the red states).

My personal feeling here, btw, is that the GOP is trying to "Gipperize" Bush. He has no successful substantive record to run on, so his party is trying to turn him into a soothing & benevolent (but stern when he needs to be) father-figure. (For more on this, read this William Saletan piece if you haven't yet.) This worked brilliantly with Reagan, of course - but then Ronnie was much older, didn't have a misspent youth like Dubya, and had an entirely different mien. I just can't see this ploy working very well, given the limited material the GOP has to work with.

Posted at 10:57 AM in General | Comments (40) | Technorati

Hoeffel in Trouble?

I have long believed that Joe Hoeffel is a pretty decent candidate who needed quite a few things to go right in order to win the Senate seat that is currently held by Arlen Specter. The best and easiest route would have been for reactionary conservative Pat Toomey to have won the GOP primary, but that is not the case.

The next best would have been for a nationwide meltdown of the Republican Party as the grown-ups stepped in to save the party from Bush - how much longer can they hold the coalition of conservatives, isolationists, imperialists, nationalists, Christian fundamentalist and corporate executives together given their internal contradictions? - but that does not look as though it has happened or ever will. So given these two past (non-)events, Hoeffel needed to get his name ID up into the high 70's or 80s and run with a unified party behind him.

Well the AFL-CIO of Pennsylvania has just decided to endorse Specter for the Senate race. An AFL-CIO endorsement does not neccessarily spell doom for the non-endorsed candidate (see Gov. Rendell), but it will deny Hoeffel a significant amount of organizational muscle and foot labor which will be needed for GOTV. Hoeffel's best chance is to pray that ACT and other 527 GOTV organizations combined with the DNC/Kerry Campaign do an extraordinary job of mobilizing the marginally likely Democratic voter as well as some unlikely voters. I would recommend that the DSSC look to funnel resources to other races at this time.

Crossposted at Fester's Place.

Posted at 09:08 AM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati