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Sunday, September 12, 2004
Rasmussen: 13-Point Lead for Bush in NC
Posted by DavidNYCJust gonna provide the link for this one: Rasmussen shows Bush up 55-42 in NC. SUSA just had Kerry four points back. Someone's gotta be wrong. Rasmussen also has an agreggate battleground states poll-of-polls going, but you need to be a premium subscriber to get the full details, so I probably won't be discussing it.
Posted at 05:51 PM in North Carolina | Technorati
Comments
I don't think Bush is up 4 or 13 points. It's probably somewhere in the range of a 6 point lead. We are NOT going to win NC this time around (except for a Kerry landslide) but hopefully Bush will have to spend a few extra dollars there and a few more man hours to secure the state.
Posted by: David Trinh at September 12, 2004 07:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The internals on that Rasmussen survey are extremely ugly as well, indicating that Bush's lead will only get bigger (60+ job approval, Kerry at -20 favorable ratio, Bush at +20, and a positive right / wrong number). NC ws always a bit of a stretch, but if there is any truth to the Rass numbers, it is over. Save the ad money for a different state.
Posted by: Chris Bowers at September 12, 2004 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Both of these polls might be right within the stated margins of error. The way they ought to be read is
SUSA: Bush is +4 +- 8
Rasmussen: Bush +13 +- 10
Posted by: Jerome at September 12, 2004 08:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Slightly off-topic:
For those interested, I've posted my latest (9/13) survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: A week of stasis and minor losses. Bush was not able to consolidate his substantial gains of last week, and, in fact, lost a little ground. Kerry wasn't able to take advantage and stayed static or lost a little himself. He sits at 249 to 254 electoral votes, while Bush is just slightly ahead of him with 253 to 259. (Both are below the 270 vote threshhold.) Whatever "convention bounce" Bush received seems to have played itself out.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at September 13, 2004 03:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, I've been saying for as long as I've been here that Kerry should spend his money elsewhere. NC is solidyl in the Bush column, despite the selection of John Edwards. I don't believe that Kerry's down by so many points, however. I figure he'll lose by no more than 8%. If Kerry loses by less than 4% in NC it should be a good night for him in other battleground states. Hopefully, once and for all, this means Kerry will waste no more money in NC when he has a real battle in states like MO, MI, WI, MN, IO, OH, FL, and PA.
It just goes to show how bumperstickers don't tell the whole story. If someone from out of state had been in with me yesterday, they would have thought Kerry would win NC in a landslide. I noticed over a dozen Kerry bumper stickers supporting Kerry to none for Bush while driving from Chapel Hill to downtown Durham. Hey, I even spotted two for Dennis Kucinich! :~)
Posted by: Pepe at September 13, 2004 06:52 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment