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Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll
Posted by SeamusI have veered away from intensive poll-watching recently, but I came upon this Rasmussen Poll and thought it was worth posting. It has Bush up by 1 in Pennsylvania. Personally, this is good news. Remember, absent extraordinary circumstances, right now should be Bush's peak. Also, Rasmussen tends to be kind to George. I think Kerry is in great position to retain PA. (Likely voters, August in parens.)
Kerry: 48 (49)
Bush: 49 (45)
Other/Undecided: 4 (6)
(MoE: ��5%)
Also, there is this: "Forty-two percent (42%) believe the country is heading in the right direction. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe we have gotten off on the wrong track." Inevitably, folks who believe we are heading in the wrong direction will vote for change.
Posted at 11:34 AM in Pennsylvania | Technorati
Comments
If I am not mistaking in 1996, the wrong direction numbers were greater than the right direction and Clinton won handily. So, you can't always go by the direction poll. I do agree, the PA poll is good news for Kerry.
Posted by: david at September 14, 2004 11:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That is a good point. I hadn't realized that about 1996. An important caveat!
Posted by: seamus at September 14, 2004 11:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Basically, the GOP has given it their all, they got a bounce but now they're tied again. PA seems to be tracking closely with the nation as a whole (of course PA is one Kerry MUST win).
In the most recent NATIONAL polls:
Rasmussen has Bush up by 0.6%
IBD has Kerry up by 2%
Newsweek has Bush up by 5%
Zogby has Bush up by 2%
IF you just take a straight average, it's Bush by about 1%, BUT if you give more weight to the latest two (1st 2 listed), it's a literal tie.
Basically, I think it boils down to the debates.
Posted by: Jason at September 14, 2004 12:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Too much more "good news" like Kerry trailing in PA is going to make me crazy--I'm really worried. Let's face it, Kerry has to win PA on Election DAy or it's going to be over before we even hear from the states in the western time zones.
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 12:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Has the convention bounce run its course?
IBP: 9/7 ��� 9/12 Kerry Up 2 points.
8/17 ��� 8/23 Even
Rasmussen: 9/12 ��� 9/14 Bush up 1 point.
8/29 ��� 8/31 Bush up 1 point.
Posted by: DFuller at September 14, 2004 12:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Look on the bright side of things. Kerry has bounced back from the RNC convention. It's not like we didn't expect Bush to bounce. Kerry isa in a pretty good position here. He needs to do well in the debates, and we know he's not a Dukakis. Kerry will hold his own in the debates.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 01:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes - do not be fooled by the "Wrong Direction" numbers.
Religious conservatives (as much as 20% of the total likely voters depending on who you ask), for example, almost universally see "America on the Wrong Track" because of things like the recent expansion in gay marriage rights.
That sure as heck isn't going to make them vote Kerry over Bush.
Posted by: Bob Chalmers at September 14, 2004 02:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think there should be more attention on the swing states in SSP. I think there are now eight: Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I'd be interested in seeing if any of the number crunchers can come up with cattle car figures on these eight.
Posted by: urbanhist at September 14, 2004 04:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good point urbanhist. We should concentrate on the states that could really swing this election. The problem is that people will differ on which states are swing. ME is still in play, as is NH, etc.
I think Kerry wins PA. It's a classic sort of liberal/conservative dichotemy. With urban areas far more liberal than the rest of the state. But, in the end, the Dems will get ouytt the vote in the urban areas. PA has trended Democratic in the suburban areas, something Kerry will need to put him over the top. The Republicans tried to hide their right wing agenda at the convention, but suburban voters are smart enough to know that the Republicans have a hard right agenda. It's painfully obvious as they let the assult weapons ban elapse and push things like gay marriage ammendments.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 04:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As for the swing states, don't forget about Virginia and Colorado. I think those are far more important than PA or WI, for the simple reason that a Kerry win is virtually inconceivable without PA & WI. Conversely a Bush win is inconceivable [I think] without, say, Arizona. I think of swing states as the "median" states -- the ones where, after the fact, people will point to those states and say that candidate X won BECAUSE this state went his way. For example, nobody says that Georgia put Bush over the top in 2000; Florida, Tennessee and maybe Missouri seemed the key states then.
Posted by: Jason at September 14, 2004 05:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
At the moment, what is unsettling is that the states that went for Bush last election don't seem as mercurial as some of the states that voted for Gore last time around. I don't think I'm mistaken in stating that no one could have imagined PA and NJ as being battleground states in the truest sense of the word this election. Kerry can't take their votes for granted, and he is not going to have to fight like hell there to ensure they don't swing. This is probably why he appears to be writing off most of the South. I remain convinced that if we had a more dynamic candidate with his (or her!) hand on the pulse of the nation, the Democrats could have found themselves winning by a landslide.
One of my friends in NYC laments that the biggest problem the Democrats made for themselves was being so adamant and cocky about the "anybody but Bush" mantra. Apparently,there are a lot of people that don't feel that way, and they're not all Republicans.
Assuming their are no "October surpsises," it's looking more and more like Kerry's going to have to win the debates by an enormous margin in order to have a chance to unseat Bush.
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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Posted by: PA-08 at September 14, 2004 06:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry can lose WI and still win. PA would be a much bigger setback for Kerry. Kerry is behind in WI now, he needs to pick up another state.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 06:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That's true, Rock, Kerry doesn't need WI--unlike PA, which has double the number of EVs. Perhaps Kerry can pick up CO (wouldn't that be something?)--but I sure hope the voters in CO don't decide to split the votes there, which would then nullify a Kerry win. Can up imagine if something like that cost Kerry the election? That might top even FL from the last election!
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 06:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
NJ won't vote for Bush. Kerry will win NJ by at least 10%, guaranteed. We're just seeing some of the post-RNC bounce effect in NJ. PA too. I think Kerry wins PA by 5%. The urban Democratic vote is probably being undercounted in PA. The Dems will get out the vote.
I agree that the debates are VERY important for Kerry. Which is why Bush is trying to duck out of one of the debates. He doesn't want to give Kerry an additional opportunity to win over voters.
Kerry has his back up against the wall now. WI is in the Bush column. Perhaps this election will surpise, with Kerry losing WI, but winning a state like NV and VA to make up for it. It could happen.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't think the CO electoral vote splitting will affect this election. It's supposed to go into effect next election, if passed.
Yes, that would be something if Kerry wins CO. We might just be surprised by the vote this year. Perhaps Bush and Kerry will trade a few states.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 06:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry might pick up big MO.
9/9/04 SurveyUSA 660 LV 4% Bush 48% Kerry 46% Bush +2
That's a scenario I could realistically see happening. It's very possible that Kerry could lose WI and pick a big state like big MO to put him over the top!
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 06:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Can someone please organize some sort of campaign against ABC's Monday Night Football? Al Micheals' - a Bush donor - made a negative comment about Kerry "flip-flopping"...I think something needs to be done about this......
Posted by: patrick at September 14, 2004 06:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
patrick,
he made that comment last week but he made another comment this week when they were showing Condi Rice on the screen. They were talking her up as potential NFL President (get real). I can't remember what he said now but it annoyed me as it was blatantly propaghandizing for bush.
Posted by: seamus at September 14, 2004 06:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Actually, Rock, if CO voters pass the referendum to split their state's EVs, it will go into effect this year. The following is from the Denver Post:
If approved Nov. 2, the constitutional amendment would affect this year's choice for president by immediately permitting the division of Colorado electoral votes. And it would mark the most ambitious Electoral College reform yet in the nation.
I didn't think anything could top FL in the last election, but if this passes, and costs Kerry the election because of it, that would top it.
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 06:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Folks, there are some serious logic problems here. First, let's deal with the CO EV splitting issue. It has very little support inside the state. Secondly, assuming it does pass (which seems highly unlikely), all it means is that no money needs to be spent there. The margin of victory will be small, why spend money on 2 EV's, when you can fight it out in OH for 20? Both the Dem's and GOP'ers crying about this "robbing" their candidate are clearly irrational.
I believe there will be a October suprise. Mark it down. Osama bin Laden or al Zawahiri will be caught between now and the election day. It will affect the election. We just don't know how.
Swing states. Yes, this is the issue, and neither PA or ME are swing states. Both will go Kerry. I don't understand why people expected Bush to get a convention bounce; I didn't. With the electorate clearly evenly divided, and Bush well known, why? Kerry didn't get much bounce. I find it odd. WI will be close, and so will IA. They have underlying red-state cultural characteristics. What about MN? Don't know, but I don't have my red pen out yet. NJ is not swing. NH I doubt will go for Bush either. I'm pessimistic Bush will pick-up OR, but AZ is still in play. Late deciders will break heavily for Kerry, just as they always have. Remember William Weld. Likely Voter surveys suck, and should not be counted.
Posted by: Mark Olsen at September 14, 2004 07:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Late deciders will break heavily for Kerry, just as they always have.
I keep hearing this like it's something that is somehow unalterable. However, we haven't had a post-9/11 election until now. Who knows for sure what to expect in terms of late deciders. And really, how on earth can there be truly that many late deciders in an election like this one? Anyone still truly undecided must be partially brain dead.
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 08:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Patrick:
Give the Monday Night Football announcer a break after all the Bush bashing you all have been doing this election cycle.
Posted by: david at September 14, 2004 08:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
this election is very frustrating to read. the polls are all over the place.the media tells us bush is way ahead and then another poll comes out sayingit`s tied.i believe it will be a semi landslide one way or the other i just can`t tell you which way it will break.
i just get the feeling bush will have a bad october because of iraq, the economy or being caught in a lie.i just find it hard to believe there are millions of gore voters that will swing his way.kerry will have to blow away bush in the debates because the media will declare bush the winner unless he screws up .
Posted by: JOEL at September 14, 2004 08:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
CO won't both vote for Kerry and vote for the electoral college split. I find that scenario highly unlikely. So, we Dems have nothing to lose if CO miraculously votes to split their EVs. Thanks for setting me straight.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 14, 2004 09:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bob Chalmers:
Thanks for agreeing with me concerning the right/wrong direction numbers. I read an article (can't find it) that explains that just because people think the country is headed in the wrong direction doesn't mean they blame the president. They could be upset about issues such as gay marriage, constant fighting between the parties, terriosts, court decisions, etc. Like i said earlier 1996 and 1984, the wrong direction numbers were greater than the right direction numbers and Clinton and Reagan, respectively.
Posted by: David at September 14, 2004 09:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock nj:
Two or three months ago I thought Kerry had a chance in Virginia. Not that this means anything, but while driving in VA several months ago, the Kerry bumperstickers outnumbered the Bush stickers by almost a two to one margin. However, within the last two weeks this has changed. I would say it is even or there are more Bush/Cheney stickers. The Republicans are really starting to get motivated. It appears the Democrats have lost some motivation. Also, it was reported that Kerry has stopped ads in VA too.
Posted by: David at September 14, 2004 09:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm not saying it's impossible for Kerry to win a Southern State, but I think Bush has a better chance to win WI, MN, IO, OH, MO and possibly PA than Kerry does in LA, AR, TN, NC or VA. I rate FL as a toss up. The Sunshine State is looking more critical to the Kerry campaign than ever before.
Posted by: Pepe at September 14, 2004 10:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Religious conservatives (as much as 20% of the total likely voters depending on who you ask), for example, almost universally see "America on the Wrong Track" because of things like the recent expansion in gay marriage rights.
OK. THis is what Bob said but it makes no sense whatsoever. If this were the substantial "wrong direction" numbers then they would always be negative. But they aren't always negative. The reason that the direction numbers are important has nothing to do with the 20-30% who always think its the wrong direction. It has to do with the fact that those numbers are exceptionally high and in the past when they have been exceptionally high it has typically hurt incumbents. People will vote for change when they are undecided and feel bad about the direction of the country. There are exceptions which is why the Bushies are trying tp push fear - in particular the fear that things could be worse with the alternative. A ridiculous but obvious ploy.
Posted by: seamus at September 14, 2004 11:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Seamus:
Keep on thinking that....we will see in November.
Posted by: David at September 14, 2004 11:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David,
Are you denying the point? Are you denying that the BC strategy is to push the idea that Kerry would be worse and that argument is based primarily in America's fear of terrorism? I didn't say it wouldn't work. In any case, the strategy is rooted in the fact that the bad "direction" figures represent overwhelming frustration in America. The argument isn't and never has been that most of these folks will vote one way or another - but that more will go for the challenger than might under other cirumcstances.
Regardless of outcome, we know that Bush-Cheney is running in smoke and mirrors. Why else would an incumbent party that controls the entire federal government (and yes this includes the judicial branch at this point) is running on an "agenda" instead of a "record".
Posted by: seamus at September 15, 2004 12:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Lies, deception, and double-talk have become a hallmark of this adminstration, as they desparately seek to retain power. You know why they do it? Because they know they can get away with it. People have short memories and people react to the illusions concocted by Bush and the Republicans. Just look at this horrible war in Iraq. They've given all sorts of justifications that have all fallen apart under scrutiny. Despite the lies and deceptions, and all the dead and wounded soliders, people still support this war rather strongly. Do you think our leaders could get away with such dubious wars if they didn't have such a complacent public?
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 15, 2004 06:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I can���t believe that he is bringing up the invest part of Social Security thing again. In his four years occupying the White House, he has done nothing to try to push it through Congress.
Posted by: DFuller at September 15, 2004 09:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller --
Bush pushed Social Security reform early on, but virtually all Social Security reform "arguments" rely strongly on assuming that the stock market will have fantastically high returns. This was an easier argument to make in early 2001 than it has been since.
My concern re: Social Security is that the Bushies' assault on the budget is in part designed to create a "crisis" such that normally off-the-table programs like Social Security can feel the butcher's knife. There are arguments to be made for privatizing Social Security, but it is a very long-term program, and it is a bad idea to plan to make major decisions about it during a crisis, especially for an Administration such as this one, which vastly overestimates its own competence and intelligence in everything it does.
Posted by: Marsden at September 15, 2004 10:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pennsylvania matters because it reflects the nation's voting pattern very well. In the 26 presidential elections since 1900 PA has voted with national popular majority 21 times (including in 2000, voted for Gore who exceptionally was not elected). The years we did not vote with the popular majority were 1912, 1916, 1932, 1948, and 1968. So you can bet your Amish granny's panties that if PA looks like it will vote for Kerry, he'll walk in the White House door barring any 2000-style shenanigans. Any states record in elections can be checked at the excellent http://uselectionatlas.org/
Posted by: L_Dog at September 15, 2004 12:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry can't realistically expect to win without winning Pennsylvania. I have a really hard time seeing him putting together a winning strategy without PA in his column. Of course PA is very important to Kerry. I'm not really worried about PA though. I think the Democratic vote is generally undercounted in urban areas like Philly and Pitts. Kerry will get out the vote and win PA. I'm more worried about WI. He might very well lose WI. But, he can still win without WI.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 15, 2004 01:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Lord, if Kerry loses PA, the election will be over before the polling closes in the states west of the Mississippi! Bush doesn't need PA, but Kerry absolutely cannot win without it. I strongly believe a win in PA for Bush will single a Bush landslide.
Posted by: Pepe at September 15, 2004 01:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, we are in agreement on PA and WI. It is my belief that in PA polls, the Dem vote is significantly under-counted. I would guess by around 5 points. I simply don't think Bush has a prayer in PA, but it will tie up some of Kerry's cash. The underlying cultural characteristics of PA fall in the Blue State catagory. Pro-choice etc.. PA is somewhat characteristic of the US as a whole, but not like OH or FL. PA leans just a little to the Dem side. FL has changed, so throw out the history for FL before 1980. (Remember never to drive using your rear-view mirror. It is easy, but won't get you where you think you are going.)
WI is a different kettle of fish. For decades, WI was solid Dem territory. However, WI is primarily a rural, midwestern, agricultural state. Just like NE, KS, IN etc. Hunting is popular. So is serving in the military. Madison is a bastion of communism etc., but the rest of the state culturally is a Red State. Kerry is fighting an uphill fight here, but he still has some history on his side. It is going to be tough. Kerry can still win without WI and IA, but he will need to do well with his "Southwestern" strategy. NV, CO, AZ.
I'm really not sure about AZ. History says AZ will go GOP. Most of the retirees in AZ are ... midwestern, another GOP region. But the Medicare policy and anything about Social Security make the retirees get very jittery. I'm not sure about the polls from AZ. I know they tend to lean Bush, but I don't know whether I can trust them. I know I can't trust the polls that say the PA is close (it shouldn't be), but what about AZ. Dunno. I have this sneaking suspicion that the polls are over emphasizing Bush's vote relative to reality.
Posted by: Mark Olsen at September 15, 2004 06:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
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