« State Legislature Battlegrounds | Main | New Zogby Out »
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
Rasmussen Polls for MI & MO
Posted by DavidNYCMore polls from Rasmussen that were taken before, during & after the GOP convention. The first is for Michigan (likely voters, August in parens):
Kerry: 48 (50)
Bush: 44 (45)
Undecided: 4
Other: 4
(MoE: ��5%)
Favorability ratings are Kerry at 54% and Bush at 49%.
And Missouri (likely voters, August in parens):
Kerry: 42 (44)
Bush: 48 (49)
Undecided: 7 (4)
Other: 2 (3)
(MoE: ��5%)
I almost hesitate to post this poll, as the sample was collected over a two-week period - but you can judge its validity yourself. For some reason, Show Me State Democrats aren't cottoning to Kerry - he gets 74% of the Dem vote, while Bush gets 90% of the GOP vote.
Posted at 04:17 PM in Michigan, Missouri | Technorati
Comments
Where can you get the Battleground (zogby) polls for CO, AZ, NC and VI. I can see the results for the other 16 states but so far nobody has posted the results for the other 4 states anywhere. Can anybody post it here?
Posted by: Ed at September 7, 2004 06:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There is a whole lot of silence on Colorado among all the pollsters except Zogby, and no one seems to put any credit in Zogby's "interactive polls". So it's hard to guess what is going on there. Some old polls show it a tie. North Carolina looks like it is going to Bush for sure. Virginia is lacking poll data almost as badly as colorado.
Posted by: susan at September 7, 2004 08:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I haven't seen a recent poll on NC, Susan, but I live here and I can assure you it will go for George Bush. NC hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1976. Some here erroneously thought Edwards on the ticket would change that, but our handsome Senator was always far more popular outside of the Carolinas. Take any poll showing a close race here in NC with a grain of salt.
Posted by: Pepe at September 7, 2004 08:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Why should we take any poll showing a close race in NC "with a grain of salt?" Surely they can't all be suspect. I grant that Edwards might be more popular outside NC than within it - but that doesn't mean he isn't popular inside NC at all.
The last non-Zogby poll out of NC was taken a month ago by Research 2000. Edwards got a 54-39 favorability rating - better than Bush. He got a 57-35 job approval rating - again, better than Bush.
And the horserace matchup in that poll put Bush ahead just 48-45. So now, I grant, a month is a long time, and things may not be that close anymore. But why should we automatically consider this poll suspect?
I'm not part of the overly-optimistic rose-colored glasses crowd. But I think NC looks close because that's what the available data tells me. And I won't ignore or diminish that data unless there is other hard data to contradict it, not just hunches.
Posted by: DavidNYC at September 8, 2004 02:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David, One of the NC Democratic delegates who atteneded the Convention in Boston told me herself that she cannot see NC going for Kerry in November. I think that says something, if even our state's Democratic delegates aren't convinced he can win our state. As she informed me, 20% of all the votes Kerry will get come from just two of our 100 counties: Orange and Durham. Their combined population is is about 350,000, and will not be nearly enough to counter strong GOP support from Charlotte, Winston-Salem and the state's other historically conservative centers. Regarding Wake County (Raleigh/Cary), she tells me historically it votes in favor of the GOP (60% to 40%), so we'll get little help there, either.
Posted by: Pepe at September 8, 2004 06:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't think NC going for Kerry is that far out of the realm of possibility. Don't get me wrong, I would be surprised if NC did go to Kerry, but I don't think it's impossible. I live in Charlotte and if bumper stickers are any kind of indication, I'm seeing a lot more Kerry-Edwards as I do Bush-Cheney.
Jason
Charlotte
Posted by: Jason - Charlotte at September 8, 2004 08:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If NC goes blue, then the election would have to be a Kerry landslide. The last time NC went blue was for Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Posted by: DFuller at September 8, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
20% of all the votes Kerry will get come from just two of our 100 counties: Orange and Durham. Their combined population is is about 350,000, . . .
This claim is easily seen to be outlandish. Orange and Durham cast fewer than 150,000 votes total in the 2000 election, while North Carolina as a whole cast 3,000,000. If those figures do not change drastically for 2004, you are asking us to believe that Kerry will not get more than 750,000 votes total in NC (since 20% of his vote total will be less than 150,000). But 750,000 is only about 25% of the NC vote. Does anyone think it is that bad?
Posted by: Jerome at September 8, 2004 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Actually, Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) isn't one of the state's most conservative bastions in the least. Bush won it by a mere three points last time, and Clinton won it in 1996. However, neighboring Gaston County is one of the state's most Republican population centers. The corridor between Charlotte and Greensboro including small cities such as Winston-Salem, Kannapolis, Salisbury and High-Point is where the GOP's main muscle can be found in NC. Wake County (Raleigh) has went Republican every recent election except 1992 and will again, but my guess is that it will be more of a 53-47 spread than a 60-40...at least if history is any indication (Bush won it by eight in 2000).
Posted by: Mark at September 8, 2004 10:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in Lee Co. which is usually 55-45 Democratic. I can't find many Kerry supporters, and the old Southern Democrats are going to vote for Bush. Bush will win the state handily in my opinion.
Posted by: Norman Durham at October 27, 2004 11:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment