« Guest Poster: Ginny Schrader | Main | Sign Up For DNC's Debate Response Team »
Thursday, September 30, 2004
What's up With Jersey?
Posted by DavidNYCI saw that an old New Jersey post was re-kindled with some new comments, and as it happens, I had actually wanted to discuss the subject. NJ has polled a lot closer than many of us might have expected, particularly for a state which favored Al Gore by 16 points. Here, courtesy of Race2004.net, is all the polling since the Republican convention:
|
Pollster |
Polling
Date |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
MoE |
|
28-Sep |
41.00% |
43.00% |
1.00% |
4.50% |
|
|
26-Sep |
44.00% |
44.00% |
3.00% |
3.00% |
|
|
26-Sep |
44.00% |
45.00% |
--- |
3.00% |
|
|
25-Sep |
46.00% |
49.00% |
--- |
5.00% |
|
|
19-Sep |
48.00% |
48.00% |
2.00% |
3.80% |
|
|
19-Sep |
44.00% |
49.00% |
--- |
?? |
|
|
19-Sep |
48.00% |
49.00% |
--- |
3.80% |
|
|
16-Sep |
42.00% |
50.00% |
1.00% |
4.00% |
|
|
14-Sep |
49.00% |
45.00% |
--- |
3.70% |
|
|
12-Sep |
43.00% |
46.00% |
2.00% |
3.00% |
|
|
12-Sep |
43.00% |
47.00% |
--- |
3.00% |
|
|
12-Sep |
47.00% |
49.00% |
--- |
?? |
|
|
7-Sep |
41.00% |
43.00% |
5.00% |
4.30% |
So what to make of this? Kerry has held the lead in every poll but one (that SUSA outlier), but things certainly are very tight. One thing you've got to remember, though, is that New Jersey is emphatically not New York. It's more conservative, and was GOP-dominated on the local level until fairly recently.
Ever since Gov. Jim Florio raised taxes (I have no idea on what, but New Jerseyans are allergic to tax hikes) in the early 90s, the Dems in NJ went into a serious tailspin, which opened the door for Christie Whitman's ascendence. In 1993, the GOP took over both houses of the NJ legislature and swept into the Governor's mansion. The following year, with the Gin-Grinch "revolution," things looked very dim indeed for the prospects of NJ Dems.
But what was bad for the goose was also bad for the gander, and Whitman's failure to placate Jersey voters over taxes led to her one-point re-election victory in 1997 (over James McGreevey, as a matter of fact). This win was almost as bad as a loss, because it utterly wiped out Whitman's phenom star power status. A woman who was talked about as a possible VP or even Presidential candidate on the GOP ticket wound up retiring early from her second term to take the shittiest job in the Bush administration: Director of the EPA.
Nonetheless, even though Democrats now control the legislature and the Governorship in NJ today, I think that the state never became nearly as liberal as New York. For instance, in 2000, when both NY and NJ had races to fill open Senate seats (Lautenberg & Moynihan both retired), two very well-funded, similarly liberal (at least, in perception) candidates won in both states. But Hillary Clinton won by 11 points, while Jon Corzine won by just 4. Yes, certainly, there were plenty of difference between the two candidates (not least of which was Hillary's celebrity), and I think Franks probably ran a better campaign than Lazio, but I still think the margin is illustrative of the differences between the two states.
And if you want a more directly comparable race, well, NY went for Gore by 25 points, whereas NJ, as I mentioned above, had "just" a 16% margin.
The bottom line is, despite the closeness of the horserace numbers, this state will stay home with us. Look at the internals of that FDU poll: Right track-wrong track is 35-52. Bush job approval is 45-54; economic approval is 36-64; and even national security is only 42-56. (FYI, this poll is of likely voters, so the usual caveats apply.)
This last issue is Bush's only hope. In a separate question, forty-two percent of voters say that national security is the most important issue this year, and Bush (in a tiny subset) crushes Kerry in terms of "Who would do a better job," 66-21. But Kerry crushes Bush by similar margins on the economy, environment, healthcare and education, issues which collectively merit "most important" status from 40% of voters.
And while I think rawness over 9/11 may actually be greater in NJ than in NY, I don't see how Bush can play his "strong leader" card all that successfully there when 51% of people say invading Iraq was a "mistake" while only 42% say it was the "right thing." Similarly, only 40% say our military effort is going well, while 57% don't think it is. I can't wait for Dick Cheney to accuse these New Jerseyans of giving aid & comfort to the enemy. (Note: I am purposely conflating 9/11 and Iraq here because that's how the Bushies win on this issue - they convince people Iraq was the right thing by exploiting fear over 9/11.)
There were 10% undecided in this FDU poll and 5% leaners (3 to Bush, 2 to Kerry). With numbers like these, I can't see Bush taking these undecideds home on election day, especially since he certainly can't afford to advertise here. (NYC's media market is, of course, the most expensive in the nation.) And though FDU didn't poll this question, other polls, unsurprisingly, have shown Bush with negative favorability ratings.
Again I say, this state is ours. I am certain that the margin will be closer - perhaps even quite a bit closer - than the last time out, but NJ is going to stay blue.
P.S. The NYT has a story on this topic, too, which I just came across, but I think it's the usual boring NYT fluff. And memo to John Adler: Don't cop to any weakness when you're talking to the New York Times. (Just be lucky they ran your quote in the last paragraph.)
Posted at 01:22 PM in Safe States | Technorati
Comments
The margin will probably half the size in NJ it was in 2000, but I still believe that Kerry should win handily if he's able to articulate himself the least bit capably in tonight's national security debate, he should put the minds of these shallow "security moms" at ease enough to vote with the person whose on their side on every other issue.
Posted by: Mark at September 30, 2004 01:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I live in NJ although I have only been here for two years. The voters here are a bit flakey. Kerry was up a whopping 20 points in July. No other state has had such a swing than New Jersey. I work with more right wingers than I ever have but I feel that Kerry will win here as well. New Jersey is an educated and diverse state, both of which bode well for Democrats, and the young college crowd I think will help provide Kerry with the win.
I am volunteering for Kerry in Ocean and Hudson counties - Ocean is a somewhat depressed, red neck area in which Bush will win, and Hudson is across the river from Manhattan which Kerry will win.
Kerry should not take Jersey for granted though - I want to see more tv ads here!
Posted by: Peter at September 30, 2004 01:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Part of the reason Gore won NJ handily is because he was a sitting VP. Name recognition means a lot in politics. Kerry isn't connecting with voters very well. It's not surprising. I mean, politics is so impersonal these days. Kerry will win NJ in the end though. Undecideds and the Democratic get out the vote effort will put Kerry over the top.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 30, 2004 01:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The internals of every single NJ poll are terrible for Bush. I do not really see how Bush can take the state. Ditto for MD. If Kerry self-destructs, he can take it, but not otherwise.
Advertising in NJ -- Kerry must be already advertising in Philly and Southern Jersey. Northern Jersey is very, very expensive.
I think Edwards and Kerry probably need to visit this state once or twice to kick-start the Dem party a little.
Kerry will definitely take Hudson County. Big Dem machine, heavy minority vote.
The big question mark is likely to be Bergen County -- the largest county in the state. Gore took it by 50K votes last time. But the county has some of the richest towns in the State, and it also has big Jewish pockets (traditionally Democratic, but may lean Repub this time). This county could be crucial.
Incidentally, 2 weekends back, there were a couple of guys doing voter registration outside my local Whole Foods. Given the demographic, I expect they were ACT/Democrats tec.
Posted by: erg at September 30, 2004 02:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bergen County will be a good bellwether for New Jersey. It went Republican as recently as 1992 for Bush-41 when Clinton won the entire state by a narrow margin. Kerry can still win NJ without Bergen County, but a think a win there locks up the state for Kerry.
Posted by: Mark at September 30, 2004 03:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bergen Country is a traditionally Republican county. It has been trending Democratic recently. Kerry wins NJ, these are just bumps in the road, net net, he's still slightly ahead and the undecideds and GOTV efforts will put him over the top.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 30, 2004 03:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry has flip/flopped on the Iraq war. But let's be honest, so has Bush. There were many people who supported the war when it seemed like Iraq had WMDs. Now, that there aren't any WMDs, some people are rethinking their positions, as is Kerry. Perhaps Bush should be rethinking his decision to send troops to Iraq also. I guess it just indicates that this war was never really about WMDs in the first place. Once we didn't find them, we should have pulled out. This war was about something else with three letters... OIL. Operation Iraqi Liberation. Which is why we're still there.
Kerry has been weak in NJ, but apparently it's not too much of a problem, or he'd be campaigning here. He knows that in the end, Jersey's Democrats have the organization to get out the votes. Bush is kind of weak in some states he should be carrying as well, like NV, AR and CO. It's going to be a close election. As others have pointed out, keep an eye on OH, PA, and FL.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 30, 2004 04:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
'I thought my party was the intolerant one....'
You were absolutely correct, for once. Congrats to the party of David Duke.
And for some of your apparent examples of "intolerance":
"New Jersey is an educated and diverse state, both of which bode well for Democrats"
"Big Dem machine, heavy minority vote."
"and it also has big Jewish pockets"
What on Earth is intolerant about that ? its simply acknowledging the obvious -- that minority groups vote Democratic, especially in Hudson County. Similarly highly educated people are more likely to be Democratic, and in a state that has Univ towns such as Princeton, and a dozen top research labs, there are a lot of such influence, you know the ones your party derides as latte-drinking, sushi-eating liberals.
Incidentall, in the unlikely event you misunderstood me, the comment about 'big Jewish pockets' was meant to represent big Jewish pockets of population. No one in NJ would deny that Bergen county has large Jewish communities, and no one would deny that this group has historically voted Democratic, but that may change this year.
Posted by: erg at September 30, 2004 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I banned Freeholder. I appreciate conservatives and Republicans who want to come here and have a good discussion on polling. But if you march in here and start declaring us "bizarro leftyworld" (would that such a place existed!), then you're gonna get your ass handed to you.
Posted by: DavidNYC at September 30, 2004 05:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
"Ever since Gov. Jim Florio raised taxes (I have no idea on what, but New Jerseyans are allergic to tax hikes)..."
Jim Florio raised taxes on everything. Literally -- it was a hike in the sales tax from 6% to 7% (and an expansion on the number of items that were included under the sales tax, such as toilet paper).
Posted by: Mr. Moderate at September 30, 2004 06:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
One point to remember: for all his supposed unpopularity, Jim Florio was only defeated by Christie Todd Whitman in 1993 by 26,000 votes out of 2.5 million total (49% to 48%).
Posted by: Michael Rebain at September 30, 2004 06:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
True, Florio barely lost in 1993 to Whitman. He was an idiot the way he went about raising taxes. He could have cut spending first, and then implemented gradually tax increases. He was horrible with PR. Politics is all about PR.
McGreevy has gotten away with over $2 Billion in new taxes, and hardly anyone has noticed, because he was smart about. He explained why it he wanted to raise taxes and he did it slowly. McGreevy hasn't been punished for raising taxes.
Florio basically rammed a huge tax hike down the throats of voters and said tough luck if you don't like it. It was Democratic machine politics at its worst. Florio fed the machine that installed him into the Governors office and he payed the price for his arrogance. But, as someone pointed out, Florio only lost by a few thousand votes, he wasn't crushed. It just goes to show just how Democratic NJ really is. It's an uphill battle for Republicans to win NJ, and has been since the early 1990s.
The Democratic machine will ensure that Kerry wins NJ. It's kind of like the polls in North Carolina or Arkansas that showed Kerry closing in on Bush. It looked great on paper, but we know when push comes to shove those southern states are going to vote for Bush.
Posted by: Rock_nj at September 30, 2004 08:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
There is a new Bergen Record poll out from New Jersey, taken on October 1 (in other words, after the debate), which shows Kerry with a 50%-42% lead (with 2% for Nader). They didn't have a post-RNC poll, but that's roughly where they (and Quinnipiac) had it before the Republican National Convention. And note that this is among "likely voters," who have been more favorable to Bush than registered voters in most polls.
Posted by: gary at October 3, 2004 09:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Great! I always knew NJ would come through for Kerry. Newsweek has Kerry up by 3% this week. The debate is affecting polling.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 3, 2004 11:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment