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Thursday, October 21, 2004
Final Call For Links
Posted by DavidNYCWith the election hovering practically moments away, I wanted to take one last opportunity to ask people for links. I'm looking primarily for two types of sites:
�Ģ Blogs which cover politics in a particular swing state. A good example would be New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, which focuses on the NM scene like a laser.�Ģ Groups which organize swing state activism. The foremost example would, of course, be ACT, but groups of almost any size qualify.
Also, if you use any good political reference resources, let us know as well. Some of my favorites include Jim Howard's electoral college calculator and Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
I'm much obliged. And feel free to use this as an open thread as well.
Posted at 01:28 PM in Site News | Technorati
Comments
Now I know how Pepe feels when people attack him here. I just had a post that was critical of Kerry disappear of a board at kos.
Kind of silly.
Posted by: The Other Rob at October 21, 2004 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A new blog for Maine!
http://defineprogressive.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Bussell at October 21, 2004 01:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Brewtown Politico is a good one that covers wisconsin politics:
milwaukee.blogspot.com
Posted by: wisc4kerry at October 21, 2004 01:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry that happened to you, Rob. It's very hard to strike the right balance in any online community. We all have to work hard to make sure we preserve an open discussion without becoming abusive - and it's not easy.
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 21, 2004 02:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Campaign Extra, Pennsylvania: http://www.pnionline.com/dnblog/extra/
BlueOregon: http://www.blueoregon.com
Posted by: neodem at October 21, 2004 02:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This page has a dozen or so links at the bottom of the page.
http://slate.com/
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 21, 2004 02:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This interactive site cuts through the bull and shows you where Bush and Kerry stand on 20 issues important to young voters, allowing us to choose who we agree with on each issue and have the results totaled at the end.
Posted by: cdv at October 21, 2004 05:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
We blog mostly on nationwide issues but we also focusing on Colorado. http://liberalcenter.com
Posted by: Ben at October 21, 2004 05:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Off topic but there's no open thread at the moment in which to insert this thought: from election eve four years ago... Presidential Tracking Poll
November 2-4, 2000
Bush 48%
Gore 43%
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%
margin of error: 2% source: CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Gore has shown signs of catching up with Bush the last couple of days before the election, but most national tracking polls have given the Governor a narrow advantage - And that sets up a longshot scenario where one candidate could win the popular vote while the other wins the electoral vote. After all, polls continue to give Gore the advantage in some of the most important battleground states. On the third party front, Ralph Nader is at risk of falling just short of his bid to make the Green Party eligible for federal funds in 2004, while Pat Buchanan and the Reform Party's political future are already starting to look doubtful.
Presidential poll positions
Major-party candidates:
Bush 47 to Gore 44 (USA Today/CNN/Gallup Oct. 27-29).
Bush 45 to Gore 42 (Reuters/MSNBC Oct. 27-29).
Bush 47 to Gore 47 (ABC News Oct. 27-29).
Bush 47 to Gore 46 (Washington Post Oct. 27-29).
Bush 45 to Gore 42 (Newsweek Oct. 25-27).
Gore 45 to Bush 43 (Pew Center for the People and the Press Oct. 18-22).
Bush 44 to Gore 42 (CBS News/New York Times Oct. 18-21).
The moral: Polls within the margin for error are all equally meaningless at this point. We've just got to watch turnout in swing states.
Posted by: Willis at October 21, 2004 07:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As for sites for activism ... we all must know moveon.org. But today they've announced release of the ad I've been waiting for, using Bush's on-air jokes about looking for WMD under the white house furniture and being unable to find them. This should have been widely publicized when it happened, it shows Bush's real face. They are asking for contributions to air it in swing states, OHIO included. The ad was tested with undecided voters and was THE MOST LIEKLY AD THUS FAR TO GET THEM TO VOTE KERRY.
Hope you'll support this!
http://www.moveon.org
Marc
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 21, 2004 08:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
well according to pat buchanan on scarboro he just announced that bush was pulling away and the race was pretty much over.he cherry picked the gallup, fox and abc poll.also he picked every state poll he could find that looked good for bush. it blew me away,totally ignored, zogby,tipp,nbc,rasmussen.just amazing.frank lunz said within 96 hours bush should be leading in most battlegrounds but he did say bush may have trouble with ohio.i have never seen such one sided reporting in my life.msnbc should be ashamed .
Posted by: joel at October 21, 2004 10:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What was Luntz's basis - however fevered - for asserting that Bush was about to pull into the lead? I mean, the only newsworthy thing in the past day has been the Red Sox.
Posted by: DavidNYC at October 21, 2004 10:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I saw that on Scarborough. It was insane. They actually ran a poll from New Mexico from October 6th, because it was the last time Bush was ahead. Then, instead of using their own poll (which shows a tie) in Ohio, they used FOXNews' poll. It was the most one-sided absurd thing I have ever seen. Then, Luntz also said that Kerry is done in Florida because JEB is the most popular governor in the country. Really? I live in Florida. I didn't know JEB was popular. Where I am, they hate JEB.
Posted by: John at October 22, 2004 12:13 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Joel you are awesome Bro! You left one part out. After painting death for Kerry; they went on to compare his duck hunting to Dukakis in a tank. WHat a disgrace. I guess MSNBC is trying to be to the right of FOx news...
Posted by: godfrey at October 22, 2004 12:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A little Iowan here: http://www.blogforiowa.com/
Posted by: Izixs at October 22, 2004 12:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i only watched about 20 minutes of the show, it just pissed me off to much.it seems like the 3 of them got together and said we have to spin this for bush.
if kerry is in trouble we will know by monday.one thing lunz said that made sense was that kerry should try to go positive, that may make sense.prople need a reason to vote for him, he made his case against bush.
by the way bushes approval is in the mid to high 40`s but somehow abc show`s it at 52%, who are they talking to?
Posted by: joel at October 22, 2004 06:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What pisses me off about the media coverage of Kerry's goose hunting trip is the fact that they fail to mention the absurdity of Bush's photo-op when he's out clearing brush on his ranch. I mean seriously, how ridiculous was that. I have operated chain saws since I was a kid, and never, NEVER have I witnessed somebody so obviously uncomfortable with one in their hands as Bush was. Look, the corporate media are going to do anything they can to make Kerry look like a clown and promote the image of that dolt in the White House. And for the life of me, I just can't believe ppl. are buying into it. I am ususally a reasonable person, but I am not sure how much more of this the American ppl. can sustain. This may offend some of you, but we are edging closer to Fascism everyday that passes us by. It seems obvious that the standard democratic mechanisms ensuring balance and fairness in our system are failing us miserably. It may be time for the forces of progress to consider alternate means to stem the tide of history that has so obviously turned against us over the past 10 years. Anyone agree?
Posted by: bigguy at October 22, 2004 07:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i just checked the final 2000 election polls and
the wash post hit bushes number 48% on the nose. it undercounted gore by 3% but it did peg bush at 48% so it may be a good indicator of where bush may end up.if it stays at 51% that may be ominous.the bright side is kerry`s final number shold be better than it show`s.
Posted by: jeremy at October 22, 2004 07:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Why is nobody commenting on the major rift that has developed between the Cheney admin. and the CIA? This is a major development in this election campaign, and all the major media outlets seem to be overlooking it. This is significant, because if the rank and file at CIA have really mutinied, it illustrates the complete and utter failure of the Cheney admins. foreign policy. It also indicates that the admins. new man at CIA, Porter Goss, has little chance of getting any quality intelligence out of the organization. The CIA were betrayed in this Iraq fiasco. They are not going to get torched twice. George Tenet is now saying that the war in Iraq was a mistake. Can all of these former senior Admin officials, Clarke, Tenet, and O'Neill be lying? Not likely! PPl. we are talking about an impending crisis here, what with the apparatchik of our government essentially issuing a non-confidence motion on the current admin. This needs to get some serious coverage. Let's get to work!!!
Posted by: bigguy at October 22, 2004 08:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Robert Novak did a column in the Washington Post about the war between the CIA and the White House. Apparently the CIA is very unhappy with their intelligence not being heeded by the Bushies, but are most angry about Bush's outright dismissal of the agency's rather bleak report about the situation in Iraq (Bush said they were "just guessing"). The only thing preventing this outburst was George Tenet, who was seen as a buffer between the two. But with him gone, the floodgates are open.
Posted by: Dale at October 22, 2004 08:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A few friends and I are willing to help writers who are looking to write opinion pieces and letters to the editor in swing states (and outside, if they're interested). We can help with advice, editing, and random assistance. The idea is for there to be community based writing which is not beholden to the kerry campaign's talking points. It hasn't been very active thus far, but if people are interested, the rest of us will do our best to give feedback.
http://swingwriting.blogspot.com
Also please note that there is an official Kerry Edwards project which does something similar. You can read about it on the SwingWriting website or at http://www.johnkerry.com/mediacorps/
Posted by: Saurav Sarkar at October 22, 2004 08:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
1) Polls don't vote. People vote.
2) I do not know why MSNBC is trying to call this election already. It is much closer at this point in 2004 than it was in 2000.
3) Although Kerry is running slightly behind Bush in today's Zogby poll (47-45, 6 undecided). Some things look promising:
a. Only 46% think Bush deserves re-election.
b. 54% rate Bush's performance as fair or poor.
Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 09:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/presidential/current.html
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/
http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/index.jsp
http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/08/electoral-college-survey-87.html
http://www.evote.com/index.asp?Page=/polls_section/pollingcontents.asp
http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm
http://gopnation.com/the_race.asp
http://icasualties.org/oif/
http://home.comcast.net/~m.durrenberger/Under49.htm
http://www.pollingreport.com/
http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/
http://www.geocities.com/79bandit/usa1.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.html
http://www.geocities.com/samboni1342/state_polls.htm
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/polls/bushjob.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.dailykos.com/user/Wayne%20in%20Missouri/diary
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html
Posted by: Benjamin Spector at October 22, 2004 09:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looks like some of us are going to have plenty of stuff to read today. Thanks for all of these links.
Random thought on having Kerry out hunting. That struck me as a good move. Those who found it silly were probably either against him looking for something to make fun of him for (no change in vote there) or support him and didn't want a repeat of the Dukakis image (again, no change in vote there). To those voters swing voters who are worried about his stance on gun rights just got a picture of him walking around in the woods in a hunting jacket carrying a rifle. Pictures are worth a thousand words, right? It also made him look a bit more like a normal guy. Hopefully, the staff there described it as a break from the campaign trail and no one tried to sell it too much. Pushing it makes it look fake. Let the free media do the work for you.
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 22, 2004 10:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Not exactly a blog, but down here in the southwest corner of Colorado we have a website to publicize our local GOTV and other pro-Kerry efforts: http://www.laplata4kerry.org (sponsored by our local Kerry 527, Citizens For Change).
We have over 500 people on our alerts mailing list. The site includes a local calendar, pictures and stories of recent local events, articles and handouts about the issues and the candidates, a library and resource list for writing letters to editors, and bunches of useful links.
Posted by: Ilana at October 22, 2004 10:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The main problem we face with our population, is one, they are not very literate -- Canadians with two years less education then Americans were more literate, if you look at tests; and two, the media are terrible. They boil everything down into soundbites, then saturate Americans with reality TV, spin and advertising. I swear, I rarely watch TV but when I do I feel like I'm stepping into another culture.
Those of us who are politically active really should push for FREE MEDIA TIME AND MAIL for all candidates, combined with a reduction in campaign and outside money (the Supreme Court will overturn any really strong finance reform, but the influence of money would be neutralized with free air time and mailings). Remember how people loved Ross Perot? Republicans look good in a 30-second slot because they can play on all the stereotypes that red and purple America hold; Democrats would wipe the floor with them if we had even fifteen minutes to lay out a proposal on most any issue.
People aren't too dumb to follow politics presented in an intelligent fashion; in fact most people are sick of the mudslinging and spinning.
The second reform we need is to have an INSTANT RUNOFF ballot so people can vote their conscience without being a spoiler, and so third parties have a chance if they really want to win.
The one group that seems ideal to pursue these reforms is Common Cause, which is active in most states. Unfortunately, they seem to be wasting their time fighting for things like letting people vote without any ID.
Posted by: Marc Cittone at October 22, 2004 12:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
the thing that strikes me about bush is he is under 50% in all polls i have seen except the wash post and if he can`t get over 50 by election day he can`t win. looking at all the battleground states he is under 50 in almost every one.i expect this election won`t be over for weeks, because kerry is going to declare victory and let the lawyers go to work.that is unless either bush or kerry has a decisive win which is unlikely, i think they both are prepared for a legal fight.
Posted by: joel at October 22, 2004 12:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
has anyone else picked up a feeling of anxiety on right wing talk radio. it doesn`t seem to me that they are acting all that confident of a bush victory.in fact some have even stated that john kerry can be elected unless they motivate their friends and relatives.
Posted by: JEREMY at October 22, 2004 12:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
North Carolina Voting Rights Project
www.southernstudies.org
Election Protection NC 2004!
Posted by: Max at October 22, 2004 12:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'd toss out http://jabbs.blogspot.com, for general media silliness covering the election, including several items on specific polls.
Posted by: DM at October 22, 2004 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
vote for nader
nader all the way baby
nader nader nader nader
Posted by: smelly at October 22, 2004 02:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
bush likes his mom
Posted by: bush sucks at October 22, 2004 02:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
bush sucks
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
nader
kerry stinks
nader
nader
nader
Posted by: mark is gay at October 22, 2004 02:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
this is curious, on msnbc web site they have have had a running poll going for the whole year.i just noticed that bush is ahead 58-42, could this be accurate or are the republicans flooding it with votes. anyway i suggest people go on and vote kerry!in the past it was mostly pro kerry maybe msnbc is fixing it. seems to go along with their pro bush bias!
Posted by: jeff at October 22, 2004 02:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
All of the Bush people are watching MSNBC more now. Kerry people are being turned off by them. Simple as that.
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 22, 2004 03:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
seem to remember yesterday or the day before when i voted it was 50-50. must be some republicans with sore thumbs.
Posted by: paul at October 22, 2004 04:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
www.envirovictory.org
it's a campaign run by the league of conservation voters focusing on oregon, florida, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and new mexico.
Posted by: stephanie at October 22, 2004 05:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
RE: MSNBC
Since they've decided to be a biased news outlet in the manner of Fox"News," Democrats and other sensible people have ceased to pay MSNBC any mind.
Posted by: Marsden at October 23, 2004 02:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Some sites:
BlueOregon.com
AmericaVotesOregon.com
WorkingFamiliesVote.com
OregonWomenVote.com
Posted by: Kari Chisholm at October 25, 2004 01:45 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Easter Lemming Liberal News is Texas and national politics
Meta - Analysis of all electoral polls
http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
Posted by: Easter Lemming Liberal News at October 25, 2004 04:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Don't forget Paul Johnson's Campaign Blog - he's running to oust 5-term Repub. incumbent Tom Latham in Iowa's 4th Congressional district.
The blog just won Democracy for Iowa's "Best Blog" award, and has been a joy to run.
http://votejohnson.blogspot.com
Posted by: Kirk at October 27, 2004 07:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment