« Open Thread | Main | Into the Final Stretch in Pennsylvania »
Thursday, October 07, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, October 7
Posted by Chris Bowers(Previous Results in Parenthesis)
National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.2 (49.5)
Bush: 47.8 (48.5)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Included: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby
Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 296, 221 (274, 187)
Bush: 242, 163 (264, 209)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, NH and NV to Kerry
States Changing Hands Since Last Projection: FL, NV and WI to Kerry; OH to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, OH for Bush (26, with AR moving under three points); FL, NV, NH, and WI for Kerry
Here���s one area where Kerry has flip-flopped: in the polls. Before the debate, the projected Electoral College standing was almost precisely the inverse of where it currently stands. Since the debate, Kerry has all but completely eliminated the gap between himself and Bush both nationally and in many important swing states. In many lean-Democratic states, Kerry has opened wide leads. He now only trails Bush 46.8-46.1 without undecideds allocated. For Bush to be under 47 without undecideds allocated places him in very dangerous territory, as almost all undecideds break for the challenger in Presidential Elections.
This, of course, is by no means to imply that Kerry is in a secure position. The campaign has changed directions several times in the past, and it could easily change at least one more time before it is over. Tomorrow���s debate will be huge. Kerry needs at least a draw. A victory could put bush on the ropes.
Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Who has the latest Zogby results for AZ, CO, VA, NC?
Posted by: ed at October 7, 2004 04:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
ed, as follows:
Arizona--Bush 50, Kerry 47
Colorado--Kerry 49, Bush 48
Virginia--Bush 50, Kerry 47
North Carolina--Bush 51, Kerry 47
I think these are accurate, but I'm just going from memory. If they're not exactly right, they're very close.
Posted by: Mark at October 7, 2004 04:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby just realeased a whole mess of polls check race2004.net for details.
Posted by: David Trinh at October 7, 2004 05:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Wow! Kerry actually leading in a CO poll! You know, I think that's the one state that might be the post election story. Kerry might just win CO, with all the hispanic support for Salazar. and yound voters coming out of the woodwork.
This race is definitely trending back in Kerry's direction, just in time too!
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 7, 2004 07:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Let's just hope Kerry doesn't win CO and then only take 5 of the 9 EVs should Coloradans pass the amendment to split their state's EVs. If something like that cost Kerry the election, I think that might top what happened in FL in 2000. And once again, I'm sure the Supreme Court would wind up deciding the outcome of the election. For better or worse, I don't think this election will be close in terms of EVs, so the worst-case scenario involving CO is probably purely hypothetical. Still, the very idea of it is nerve-wracking.
Posted by: pepe at October 7, 2004 08:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Is anyone else nervous about tomorrow's job report? I hear it is supposed to be positive, which is not good news for Kerry. Anyone have any information??
Posted by: Peter at October 7, 2004 10:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Well, I hear there will be anywhere between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs created. So basically, Bush will say it shows progress, and Kerry will say you are the first president since Herbert Hoover to lose jobs. The good news for us (which is bad for the country) is that the jobs by and large are not being created in swing states and the jobs that are being created suck. So it might actually play into Kerry's hands if Bush claims this shows that the economy is strong. Kerry can throw his Bush is living in a fantasy world response.
Posted by: Matt at October 8, 2004 12:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here���s one area where Kerry has flip-flopped: in the polls. Before the debate, the projected Electoral College standing was almost precisely the inverse of where it currently stands. Since the debate, Kerry has all but completely eliminated the gap between himself and Bush both nationally and in many important swing states.
I'm trying out a different way of graphing the data I've collected from doing the Electoral College tracking survey -- as individual data points with a polynomial trendline superimposed -- and I've posted the results as an "update" comment in the current survey. I don't know how much validity the trendlines have, but it sure looks encouraging.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 8, 2004 12:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A new Gallup poll has Bush & Kerry tied in CO. 49-49. Gallup has a Republican bias, so perhaps it's really 2 point lead for Kerry.
If Kerry wins CO and the ammendment passes, he picks up an extra EV. I agree it would suck if that cost him the Presidency though.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 06:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Does anyone know where one can find data on state polls before the 2000 election? I've heard that Quinnipac had Bush up by double digits in PA, that other polls had Bush winning big in WI, and we know that Ohio was closer than expected...
Posted by: science at October 8, 2004 08:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The job number came in well below expectations this morning. Surprised the heck out of me, I had assumed they would rig it.
Posted by: The Other Rob at October 8, 2004 08:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
WI seems to be getting winnable again:
Latest Polls:
Moore (R) Bush 47%, Kerry 45%
Lake Snell Perry (D) Bush 44%, Kerry 48%
Gallup Bush 49%, Kerry 46%
Posted by: DFuller at October 8, 2004 09:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Matt, could you check your URL please? It seems not to be working.
Posted by: Andre at October 8, 2004 09:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yay! NV, NH, and FL for Kerry? Very nice. Having WI back makes me feel good too. Now let's see what happens after this debate!
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 8, 2004 11:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In my mind Kerry has already won Colorado. It appears that the ammendment will pass and Colorado's 9 electoral votes will be divided proportionately. Gore received 0 votes in Colorado in 2000, however, with the ammendment Kerry will either pick up 4 or 5 votes (depending on the winner) and Bush will lose 4 or 5 votes. Thank you Colorado!
Posted by: Peter at October 8, 2004 11:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Chris, what would happen with the swing states if you DID NOT allocate undecideds? It might be smart to try, since the Bush campaign is so good at convincing average people that Bush is a strong leader that will keep us safe and that Kerry is a tax-and-spend liberal flip flopper (what a bunch of _____ (fill in your own curse word here).
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 8, 2004 11:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Peter, Why do you think Kerry will win CO? I know the polling surpisingly close, but what makes you think it will break for Kerry?
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 11:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'd hate to have to count on CO's ballot initiative for John Kerry to win the Presidency.
The 9 votes that matter in their split are not CO's ECVs so much as the Supreme Court justices' votes, and when national election outcomes depend upon it, certain justices are on record for abandoning their usual "states' rights" positions.
Posted by: Marsden at October 8, 2004 12:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i wouldn`t trust those zogby internet polls some of them just look way out of sync.new mexico looks way to good,plus co. va. and nc are probably wrong. i also think florida is not winnable this year.lets hope the debate goes well tonight!
Posted by: JOEL at October 8, 2004 12:45 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Looking at the Colorado situation optomistically. If Kerry wins CO, he's likely to win other Bush states as well. Not guaranteed, but likely. A CO win means Kerry is finishing strong on election day and might pick up NV, OH, FL, and even possiblely a state like big MO. He will also most likely hang on to states like NM and WI if he's winning CO. So, the electoral vote spliting probably won't matter in the grand scheme of things.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
JOEL, Yes the Zogby polls are a bit optomistic for Kerry. It's a new polling method. Unproven for sure. Not sure why it would favor Kerry though?!?
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 12:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I wish my state (Texas) would use the Maine format for the Electoral College. That would turn Texas into a swing state because about 10 of the Congressional Districts would be close.
Posted by: DFuller at October 8, 2004 01:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock_nj;
You state that Gallup has a Republian bias. I assume you mean a bias in terms of collecting their polling data. I hope for Kerry's sake that's the only bias, because Frank Gallup chose the people who get to ask the questions at tonights townhall debate!! Were you aware of this?
Posted by: bigguy at October 8, 2004 01:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For this election, I don't know if any one poll can be trusted. I think the safest way to have some gauge is to factor in a lot of polls and take the mean average.
Posted by: Pepe at October 8, 2004 01:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
bigguy, I read an article a few weeks ago that said that Gallup uses someothing like 40% Republicans and 35% Democrats, the rest indies, to conduct their polls. Everyone was wondering why Gallup was consistently showing much better numbers for Bush than other polling firms. Well their sampling method explains it. Their polls are biased with Republicans. Even though turnout is typically more like 40% Democratic and 35% Republican (the reverse of his bias). Gallup is going to have egg on his face after this election is over.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 02:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That's probably how they got the Bush campaign to agree to the debate, to have someone in their corner like Gallup chose the attendees. All part of the Republican propaganda effort.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 8, 2004 02:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
gallup blows with the wind, now that the election looks tied the gallup polls are looking much closer and less pro bush.if it looks like kerry may win gallup will fall in line on election day.
Posted by: jeremy at October 9, 2004 10:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock_nj: Yes the Zogby polls are a bit optomistic for Kerry. It's a new polling method. Unproven for sure. Not sure why it would favor Kerry though?!?
My guess would be that the polling method relies more on people volunteering to be polled. And perhaps people who are dissatisfied, that is, who are likely to vote against the sitting president are more likely to volunteer?
Posted by: Andre at October 9, 2004 07:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I just visited Rasmussen and was quite startled to read the following:
he latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 50% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%. Today is the first time all year that either candidate has hit the 50% mark in our survey.
Why would this (aberration?) be happening now? Kerry has resonated more with me since the first debate, though I still find not nearly as personable as Clinton or Reagan. It appears there are many other voters with whom Kerry has not yet made a real connection. At any rate, while I've been feeling cautiously optimistic for Kerry of late, but I do feel his is still an upward climb. There's not much time left. I hope he finds a way to better connect with those voters still on the fence, and soon.
Posted by: pepe at October 9, 2004 07:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Arkansas is getting REALLY close.
Is the Kerry campaign registering any voters over there or are they completely ignoring it?
I hope they aren't ignoring it. It's probably the most Democrat-friendly place in the South...sure, it has a Republican governor (but then again, so does Massachusetts!), but it has two Democrats for Senators, it's Clinton country, and the latest poll shows it tied!
If we pulled off Arkansas, Nevada, and New Hampshire, we wouldn't need Florida or Ohio at all! We do need to protect Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa (and New Mexico if you believe Gallup, but I don't), but Bush needs to protect Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Florida, Ohio, and even Missouri and Virginia.
Please, Senator Kerry, don't overlook Arkansas!
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 10, 2004 01:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry momentum is building:
Zogby 10/8-10 (10/5-7)
Bush 44 (46)
Kerry 47 (45)
Gallup 10/9-10 (10/1-3)
Bush 48 (49)
Kerry 50 (49)
Posted by: DFuller at October 11, 2004 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/11) survey of 56 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: Although Bush still leads according to a majority of sites, Kerry has made substantial headway in re-gaining ground he lost to Bush in the last month, reducing a 50 point gap to a 15 - 18 point Bush advantage. Currently Bush has 262 to 268 electoral votes, while Kerry has 247 to 250.
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 12, 2004 04:43 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Race2004 gives an interesting recent Wilson Research poll for OK. Although like all polls it gives Bush a decisive margin, it is only 12%, where the last month all polls (including those of the same poller) were around or even over 30%.
Is this a statistical error that accidentily came out very high, is something special going on in Oklahoma, or are we going to see more sudden large swings to Kerry in the coming days (which might give states like Colorado, Arizona, Missouri and Arkansas true swing state status)?
Posted by: Andre at October 12, 2004 08:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
As the race gets closer, the winner gets murkier:
Strong Kerry 196
Weak Kerry 36 (ME, OR, & NH)
Barely Kerry 15 (MN, NM)
Total Kerry 247
Toss Up 42 (IA, OH, NV, WI)
Barely Bush 36 (CO, FL)
Weak Bush 6 (AR)
Strong Bush 207
Total Bush 249
Four years ago it was all about FL. This year it is all about OH. In order for Kerry to win, he must take OH + one of IA, NV, & WI. In order for Bush to win, he must take either OH or IA, NV, & WI.
Posted by: DFuller at October 12, 2004 08:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Weak Kerry should be ME, OR, PA, & NH
Posted by: DFuller at October 12, 2004 08:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with the analysis that Ohio will be the key this year. In some way it's the most predictable swing state: Ohio will go to the election winner ;-)
Posted by: Andre at October 12, 2004 09:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with the analysis that Ohio will be the key this year. In some way it's the most predictable swing state: Ohio will go to the election winner LOL, Andre! That's very true! And it's even more true of MO. Those two states are sort of like microcosms of the nation as a whole. I think it will be VERY close in OH, I'm not so sure about MO. The gay marriage amendment is worrisome in OH. I'd feel a little more optimistic about Kerry's chances in OH if that weren't on the ballot November 2nd.
Still, I really don't think this election will be close in the column that matters, and that is who has the most EVS. My gut feeling continues to be that the winner will win most of the swing states, but by very close margins. That said, and even though they could win without them, Bush needs OH much more than Kerry, Kerry needs PA much more than Bush. I would almost be willing to wager that if Kerry wins OH he'll be the next president, and if Bush wins PA, he will win re-election.
Posted by: Pepe at October 12, 2004 10:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't pay much attention to the lines like "MO and OH always pick the winner". Indeed, DE was just like that until 2000, and now it is a solid blue state, so it is kind of silly to make predictions.
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 12, 2004 11:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It's not that kind of statistics that I base my confidence on Ohio on, but the polls of the last few days and weeks. Take some polls or combination of polls that you rely either to be reasonable good, or otherwise all skewed about the same amount in the same direction. Now order the polls by the percentage difference between Bush and Kerry (most Bush/Kerry on top, most Kerry/Bush on the bottom). Count off electoral votes either from the top or the bottom until you get to the state that brings the total over 269 (make a bit amends for the case one state gets it at 269 exactly). This state is the 'key state' - if the polls are really all off by the same amount, the candidate who wins this state is going to win.
I have found that Ohio in most cases has been either the key state or the state directly above or below it (in the cattle call that this thread is a reaction to, it seems not to be the case - reason being that Florida 'overtook' Ohio in Kerry's direction).
Another interesting factoid is that at the current pollings, the key state is around the 'dead even' level, being held by Wisconsin and Ohio.
Posted by: Andre at October 12, 2004 12:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The horse race:
ABC News Tracking Poll 10/11-13(10-12)
Bush 48 (48), Kerry 48 (48)
Zogby Tracking Poll 10/11-13(10-12)
Bush 46 (45), Kerry 45 (45)
TIPP tracking poll 10/10-13(9-12)
Bush 46 (46), Kerry 42 (43)
Rasmussen Tracking Poll 10/11-13(10-12)
Bush 48 (48) Kerry 46 (46)
Average
Bush 47 (46.75) Kerry 45.25 (45.5)
Bush +1.75 (+1.25)
Posted by: DFuller at October 15, 2004 09:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New Zogby out (ouch)
Zogby Tracking Poll 10/12-14(11-13)
Bush 48 (46), Kerry 44 (45)
Undecided 6%
The good news though is only about 25% of the undecided voters think Bush deserves reelection. The undecided voters have pretty much decided that they do not like Bush.
Posted by: DFuller at October 15, 2004 09:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment