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Friday, October 29, 2004
General Election Cattle Call, October 29: Penultimate Projection
Posted by Chris BowersThis evening I will be going out to Bucks County in order to work with the Schrader campaign, for which you guys have raised an astounding $6,780! My trip is two days later than expected, but at least I will finally be going. I���ll have lots of pictures while I am out there, and over at MyDD I will still have fairly regular posting on the election before I return to the city for Election Day.
Before I leave later this evening, I wanted to update my Presidential projections. I have used leaners from the four tracking polls for the first time, and I currently project the final popular vote at Kerry 49.97-Bush 48.53. Also, I have narrow leads for Kerry in most of the closest states:
FL Kerry +1.12
IA Kerry +2.50
MN Kerry +4.41
NV Bush +1.89
NM Kerry +0.06
OH Kerry +1.30
WI Kerry +2.24
This comes out to 311-227 in favor of Kerry. I allocate undecideds, so this race is tight, tight tight.
I hope everyone out there is volunteering for Democrats this weekend. All the historical evidence points toward the final undecideds (now only 2.9% of the electorate) breaking heavily for Kerry, but it is not a guarantee. The outcome is still very much in doubt, especially with extensive vote-suppression efforts on the part of the GOP. Be part of the tsunami that puts us over the top.
Posted at 01:50 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Technorati
Comments
Reporting for duty, sir! I am heading up to NH again. I'll be at it with the rest of our ground troops up there doing a big lit drop on Saturday. Then, on Sunday, we will be finishing up on organizing the GOTV effort. Gotta work Monday :( But, then it's a going to be a very long day of doing what needs to be done on Game day. I wish us all the best luck.
P.S. Charge those extra cell batteries, and fill up the tank Monday night.
Posted by: DavidR at October 29, 2004 03:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The most the polls can now say is that it's unbelievably close. My own estimates not only have Kerry winning by 271-267, but enough states within 2% (which is clearly smaller than the error margin of even a compound of polls) to give Kerry 100 or Bush 190 EVs difference in the college! Winning with a 200 EV margin is still possible for either candidate.
Posted by: Andre at October 29, 2004 04:12 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bad news for Kerry...
A new bin Laden tape was played on Al-Jazeera today saying Americans won't be safe under Bush or Kerry. This will play right into Bush's fear-mongering hands. Whatever momentum Kerry had could be gone after this makes the news.
Posted by: Mark at October 29, 2004 04:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I wouldn't worry about Bin Laden, or whatever crap is being thrown around in the newspapers on Sunday either. This election won't turn on Haliburton or explosives on the last weekend. It is about turnout, and turnout is about organization and personal contacts. Yep, it could still be either a landslide for Kerry, or for Bush, because the electoral college numbers could shift dramatically. It's now down to whoever has the better machine.
Posted by: MarkOlsen at October 29, 2004 04:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Guys hopefully the Bin Laden tape can remind americans that Bush took his eyes off the ball when he decided to go into Iraq instead of using the 140,000 U.S Soldiers to find OBL.
Posted by: godfrey at October 29, 2004 04:43 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm heading out to Arizona from San Francisco tongiht to help canvass all weekend -- I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised by which states swing our way. Lastest polls show typically red AZ within 4 or 5 points...
Posted by: Anthony at October 29, 2004 04:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with MarkOlson above. This election will not be decided by any subsequent news or information over the weekend about Bin Laden videos with promises of terrorist acts greater than 9/11, Haliburton or the missing explosives. None of that will matter in these final days.
It's hard to believe that either candidate can, and probably will, win by up to 100 EVs. It will be a nail-biter election in so many swing states, but it could be a landslide and all but over long before we get results from the far Western states.
And then again, it might all come down to a single state--like Hawaii! I just hope we know who the winner is by sometime on November 3rd for the sake of our govenment's and our country's stability. The longer the delay, the more likely the winner will be seen as "illegitimate" by roughly half the country, and we know how damaging that has been. Finally, God forbid that the courts once again step in and decide the outcome of a second consecutive election!
Posted by: pepe at October 29, 2004 04:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Zogby says Kerry will be ahead in FL today.
"The think is that the daily numbers just confound me,. Just when I think there is a trend one way it seems to be stopped in its tracks and goes the other way. For now Pennsylvania looks good for Kerry so does Ohio. Minnesota and Wisconsin look like they are breaking for Kerry right now. My new Reuters numbers will show Kerry moving into the lead in Florida. But obviously this is a very volatile situation. "
Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 04:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think the tape does help Bush a little, because it takes the fiasco over the missing explosives and Iraq temporarily off the TV screens. Without it, we'd have seen another day or two of coverage on the missing explosives and maybe even Haliburton. It may also cut into the Kerry momentum.
I've no doubt that wingnuts will try to spin it as Osama's endorsement of Kerry. I've no doubt that left wing conspiracy theorists will see Rove's hand in it. Really, it just reaffirms that Osama seems no difference between KErry, Bush or anyone else as President.
GOTV, folks, GOTV.
Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 05:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
While the Bin Laden tape is potentially significant, its not the kind of story that news media likes (a developing story, with new info coming in).
Yes, as was said above, it could hurt Kerry's momemntum. Then again, freepers have been claiming they have the momentum for days.
Certain people such as myself have a visceral reaction to the mere sight of OBL -- we want him dead. But I don't let it influence my vote. I think its a wildcard.
Yes, I've no doubt Faux and the right wing echo chamber will try and play it as an endorsement by Osama. From the quoted messages though, it doesnt' sound like that.
Posted by: J Ost at October 29, 2004 05:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm glad Kerry pressed capturing Bin Laden so hard in the debates and Bush said that Kerry "Didn't know the nature of the was on terrorism."
Posted by: Jocko at October 29, 2004 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I am concerned that the Bin Laden tape will adversely(against Kerry) impact the way the undecideds break at the last minute. I do not think Kerry supporters can assume that those numbers will fall into the historical percentages. Turn out and making those votes count is everything now.
Posted by: Charles at October 29, 2004 05:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i think kerry just lost the election,kerry was very supportive until he started saying he would run a better war on terror and saying bush let osm get away. the american people just do not like obl saying bad things about our president.
my gut feeling is this is not going to do anything but help bush and of course the threat level will probably go up.kerry just can`t fight bush on terrorism. i expect bush to be up by 10 pts on tuesday.
you could almost swear rove was behind this.no one will be talking about anything but this until tuesday.just unbelievable!
Posted by: JOEL at October 29, 2004 06:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I hope it's OK for a darn furriner to post a comment. I just wanted to say that I wish all of you all the best in your work, wherever, doing whatever, up to Tuesday. The election results will start coming in at about 3 a.m. here in Yurp on Wednesday morning, and for the first time in my life I will be getting up early to see who won the US election. I don't know how to put this really - I just wanted to say that if it helps one little bit, and gives you one extra ounce of energy, to think about the millions and millions of people all over the world who are 100% behind you, then please do, because we are. Truly. Really. Everyone I know, and I mean everyone, desperately wants Kerry to win. Please save the world. You can tell your grandchildren about it in 2040 or so. And I promise I'll tell mine.
Love and luck
anne
Posted by: Anne at October 29, 2004 06:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
RE: Osama Bin Laden's video. I just sent a letter to the editor of one of the major daily newspapers in Detroit. Here it is:
--
Dear Editors,
The Bush/Cheney ticket is basing their re-election entirely on being able to fight an effective war on terror. Today we see another video from Osama Bin Laden making threats against America. If President Bush is so effective at fighting terrorists, why is Osama Bin Laden still threatening America three full years after his attack on the World Trade Center towers?
--
I suggest you all do the same.
Posted by: Randy at October 29, 2004 06:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Latest Zogby numbers
In Colorado, Bush led 47-46 percent; Florida, Kerry 47-45 percent; Iowa, Bush 45-44 percent; Michigan, Bush 48-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 49-43 percent; New Mexico, Bush 51-42 percent; Nevada, Bush 51-44 percent; Ohio, Bush 46-45 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 47-44; and Wisconsin, Kerry 50-45 percent.
Colorado is too good for Kerry. WI and MN look great for Kerry (WI and MN were bothering me). PA: Kerry is slightly ahead, as I expect (Other than Quinnipiac, who seemed to oversample Repubs) every other non-partisan poll shows Kerry ahead slightly.
NM and NV are probably too low for Kerry, although I don't expect him to get either.
IA is a true tossup, as is FL and OH.
MI hasn't changed from yesterday. An appearance by Kerry in Detroit is set.
NH is looking good for us too.
So kerry can hold the Gore states. The only one which lookds like a loser is NM, with IA being close. Get OH + NH. FL is the big prize, of course but is a hard (but possible) nut to crack.
If its OH + NH from Kerry, we will need to wait nervously till Hawaii closes to see the result. Of course, if he gets IA as well, then its great.
Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 06:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
SUSA checks in with 2 polls from the key swing states of NY and TX. Results are about what you'd expect Bush by 22 in TX, Kerry by 18 in NY.
One midlly positive indicator. in TX, Bush leads by 22, but among those who've alread voted (40%), Kerry is behind by only 14. Is this an indication of how fired up Dems are ? Its not going to matter in TX of course, but elsewhere ..
Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 07:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
erg,
All the Democrats in Texas have already voted. All four of us: wife, two friends, and myself.
Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Everything was swing in Kerry's favor until the Bin Laden video. Now I have almost no doubt that Bush will win. Bush's election futures have been soaring since the tape came out. Bin Laden stole this election from Kerry.
Posted by: Ryan at October 29, 2004 07:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Its not correct that Bush election futures have been shooting up. They were at 51` or so most of the day, then at the very last minute, someone made a bid as 54 or 55. No biggie.
I would advise kerry supporters to not lose focus because of this and give in to despair. GOTV is key, Bush is vulnerable on Iraq, the economy everywhere.
Posted by: erg at October 29, 2004 08:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If the election were Saturday, it would probably be enough to put Bush over the top. I think this will be a case of a blimp in the polls tomorrow. The bin Laden tape shows the greatest failure of the Bush occupancy of the White House: Three years of troops in Afghanistan and they haven���t captured him. The Radical Right forced President Clinton to try to get bin Laden with his hands tied behind his back. When Clinton bombed Afghanistan, the Radical Right blamed it on Monica. The election is still up for grabs. Everyone knew on Thursday that bin Laden was on the loose and it is still true today.
Posted by: DFuller at October 29, 2004 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The bin Laden tape will make little if any difference in the election. 98 percent of voters have made up their mind and can't be swayed. By this time on Sunday, chances are OBL will be placed on the back burner because something will happen in Iraq, or Scott Peterson will have said something stupid again, or Bush will fall off another Segway. And the undecideds will still have not made up their minds, because nothing has convinced them to go one way or another yet. Neither will this.
Posted by: Dale at October 29, 2004 08:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
i have thought about what i said earlier, i think
by tuesday the osm tape will be forgotten, it came to early. i`m sure bush will get a bump for a couple of days but if you rally think about it obl`s survival is a clear sign that bush has failed plus who knows what might crop up in iraq in the next few days.besides it will all boil down to the redskins game on sunday, they should lose hence bush loses, has worked since 1936.
Posted by: joel at October 29, 2004 08:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Redskins will lose. But if they beat the Packers, Washington will become the city with the highest number of heart attacks in the nation.
Posted by: Dale at October 29, 2004 08:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The NY Times has recognized Michael Badnarikas a threat to Bush:
------------
Mr. Badnarik is the presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party, which says he could ���Naderize��� Mr. Bush. A recent Zogby/Reuters national poll showed him tied with Ralph Nader at one percentage point each - not much, but possibly critical. Unlike Mr. Nader, Mr. Badnarik is on the ballot of every battleground state except New Hampshire.
���If we have a rerun of Florida 2000 in Pennsylvania, Michael Badnarik could be the kingmaker by drawing independent and Republican votes from Bush,��� said Larry Jacobs, director of the 2004 Election Project at the Humphrey Institute of the University of Minnesota, which has been tracking third-party candidates.
-------------
Democrats should work to make sure Republicans know that Badnarik is a conservative alternative to Bush.
Posted by: VoteBadnarik at October 29, 2004 09:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Huh, why is everyone saying that the Bin Laden tape gives the election to Bush? Reading the transcript, I think it hurts Bush by suggesting that America's policies motivate the terrorists, that Bush is wrong on his attitude and behavior, and that Bush was unable to stop 9-11 because he wasn't paying attention to foreign policy.
Posted by: Ilana at October 29, 2004 10:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I disagree with the few posters who fear that the OBL video has lost the election for Kerry. I think it will have little effect. I don't even think it will change the momentum much, which is going in neither direction right now (Kerry had it but the possibility that he may have jumped the gun on his criticism on the missing explosives stall it). People have made up their minds. We have the advantage after phase I of the ground game. and the outcome will be determined by how well we do in phase II. Our GOTV success was going to determine the winner before the OBL tape, and it will dertermine the winner after it! Nothing has changed in that regard, IMHO.
As erg said, GOTV folks GOTV.
Posted by: Randy C. at October 29, 2004 11:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I agree with Randy C. It is all GOTV. This tape will get play tonight. Tomorrow, everyone is going to do what they do on Saturdays, which is sit on their butts and watch college football. Then on Sunday, they are going to sit on their butts and watch professional football. Then, when people refocus on Monday, the news will be about the candidates' last ditch effort to swing voters, and not Bin Laden. Since most swing states are statistically deadlocked, it comes back to GOTV. I do like our chances though. In Florida, Democrats are really motivated. In Ohio, we seem to be opening up a lead. And in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, where the race appears to be a tie, we have much better ground games than Republicans. If we outhustle them in those states, which we have the infrastructure to do, we will hold those states, and probably pick up Ohio, putting us over the top, even without Florida. We should pick up New Hampshire as well. This has been little reported nationally but I am assuming it is getting big play in New Hampshire (from cbsnews.com):
Former New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith, a conservative Republican who once ran for president as an independent, endorsed Kerry on the eve of Mr. Bush's last trip to the state before the election. Smith, in a letter released by the Kerry campaign, praised his former colleague as a Democrat "who crossed the aisle to forge a bipartisan coalition in the Senate to balance the federal budget."
We need to hold the midwestern 3: IA, WI, and MN. I think we will with a superior ground game, and then pick up Ohio, taking us over the top.
On a side note, watch the south. VA, NC and especially Arkansas. I have a funny feeling we might steal one of those 3. Could be dead wrong, but who knows.
Posted by: Sam at October 30, 2004 12:24 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I hate to troll on you guys 'cause everyone seems pretty cool here and all, but i believe that this bin Laden tape will hurt Kerry.
Maybe I'm biased. I am a Bush supporter. I voted Gore in 2000 and have regretted it ever since he put this country through those nonsensical recounts. And if Kerry wins the job, I'll support him 100%. I'm confident that Kerry will fight on against the war on terror and he's likely to do a fine job as CiC.
But please don't fool yourselves.
llana says:
"Huh, why is everyone saying that the Bin Laden tape gives the election to Bush? Reading the transcript, I think it hurts Bush by suggesting that America's policies motivate the terrorists, that Bush is wrong on his attitude and behavior, and that Bush was unable to stop 9-11 because he wasn't paying attention to foreign policy."
No one in America gives a rat's ass what bin Laden thinks of our policies. That bastard killed 3000 innocent American civilians on 9/11! He, and his ilk, have no place in International politics so his opinion counts for shit.
Sure, most everyone has made up their mind, but those that are just now tuning in to the election know that Bush lives for killing those cold-blooded terrorists and they will be motivated to get to the polls and give their vote to him. And those that are still weighing their decision will follow in kind. In a tight election, my opinion is that this is all Bush needs to win.
How dare bin Laden lecture us about our policies! How dare he tell us we can avoid another attack if we follow his advice! How dare he say the destruction of 9/11 could have been less severe if Bush didn't let t happen(which he didn't), when bin Laden is himself responsible for those planes destroying the WTC.
And for people like llana to accept his opinion as if he were a legitimate foreign leader is rediculous. As far as bin laden is concerned, we should all be killed.
Considering the short attention span of the American populace, bin Laden has reminded everyone that these maniacs are gunning for us and the American people will not stand for that.
Good luck to your candidate of choice and all, but I believe that this really has sunk Kerry's campaign.
I know I don't have to say it here, but please, everyone go out and vote on Tuesday if you haven't been able to do by absentee or early voting yet. I'm not trying to discourage any Kerry supporters here.
Whoever is president, we're gonna kill that son-of-a-bitch.
Posted by: 4moreyears at October 30, 2004 04:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What the Osama Bin Laden video did was temporarily put the brakes on some of the momentum building for the Kerry campaign. It also changed the focus to the war on terror. Kerry had one terrific week, putting Bush on the defensive. You could sense the momentum with Kerry opening up larger leads in battleground states and more states coming into play.
This looks to me like a Karl Rove trick. If you recall, terrorist warnings were issued after Edwards was selected and after the Democratic convention.
My personal reaction after viewing the OBL video was one of anger. Here was a terrorist, the 9-11 mastermind, given center stage and free press, trying to affect our election! It just boggles the mind that OBL remains at large and continues to threaten the US, which really points to the incompetence of this administration. After four years we are not only faced with Bin Laden and his threats, but with a complete mess in Iraq.
What exactly did Bush's unilateral policies accomplish?
I believe that Kerry has an excellent chance of keeping up his momentum. OBL's existence, OBL's taunts and threats, the missing tons of explosives, the FBI Halliburton probe, the continuous bloodshed and fighting in Iraq, and even the shortage of flu vaccine can be used to Kerry's advantage. Kerry must keep on the offensive.
Posted by: Shar at October 30, 2004 04:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
4moreyears, you've just scared all of your Republican security moms from voting.
Posted by: Shar at October 30, 2004 05:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Shar says:
"This looks to me like a Karl Rove trick. If you recall, terrorist warnings were issued after Edwards was selected and after the Democratic convention."
You have got to be kidding me. Karl Rove is behind the OBL tape???
Please, someone tell me that this is not conventional Democratic wisdom. If it is, then no amount of weak democratic "October surprises" will save Kerry.
After reading this thread, I am convinced that the democratic party has lost touch with America.
It's sad as I've been a democratic voter since JFK. No, not the fake you guys are putting up now, but the real JFK who faced down a soviet threat in Cuba and cut taxes "for the wealthy" that jump-started our economy.
I truly believed that Clinton brought the democratic party into a golden age and now you guys hate Bush so much, that you are ruining it. You are making the same mistakes the republicans did when they hated Clinton so much that they lost political capitol themselves.
I'm truly dismayed about this. I watched Zell Miller in the RNC and I thought that he had lost his mind. He looked like a crazed animal. Today i feel like he was closer to the truth than I was. What has happened to my party?
Posted by: 4moreyears at October 30, 2004 05:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
shar:
"4moreyears, you've just scared all of your Republican security moms from voting."
That makes no sense. People like you are running my party into the ground. thanks a lot!
Posted by: 4moreyears at October 30, 2004 05:07 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/30) survey of 60 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.
Executive summary: By the evidence of the trackers, the race continues to be extremely close if not tied: Bush has 255-263 votes and Kerry has 246-258.
(Please note that this iteration of the survey might be the last.)
Posted by: Ed Fitzgerald (unfutz) at October 30, 2004 05:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have come to a different conclusion upon further reflection of the Bin Laden tape. I think it will hurt Kerry if it manages to grab all the headlines now through Election Day. 9/11 has always been the wild card for this election, as this is the first post-9/11 election. I know how we keep believing that undecides will virtually all break for the challenger; yet might they not mostly break for Bush due to the unique circumstances of 9/11? This is something we will not know until Election Day. However, the constant reminders of Bin Laden and 9/11 do seem to benefit Bush, who has consistenly polled much better than Kerry on questions of who would do a better job fighting the terrorists. If we are bombarded with Bin Laden and 9/11 reminders, it does not help Kerry, while it ultimately does help Bush.
Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 08:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A Kerry upset in NC? Not going to happen! Over the past several months Bush's lead in NC has been much stronger and more consistent than Kerry's leads in MI or PA. When you look at the map, Kerry has very few "states strong for Kerry." Most of them are "barely Kerry" or "leaning Kerry." Bush's support is much more solid (almost the entire South, Great Plains, and most of the Rocky Mountain States). In comparison, Kerry has at most 8 states that are "solid" Kerry, over half of them are in the Northeast. OH and FL are grabbing the headlines, but most of the battles are taking place in the Gore states: WI, MN, MI, IA, NM, HI (which I still find hard to believe), PA, and NJ. Due to the Bin Laden video and threats, if you're looking for an upset special, I think it could be NJ. That said, I can't see an advantage for either candidate yet--it's still a coin toss, and will remain so until the official state results are announced after the polls close.
Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 08:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It seems like bin Laden had zero effect. The latest Zogby tracking poll shows Kerry up 47-46.
Posted by: DFuller at October 30, 2004 08:47 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The Gay Oppressors Party in Texas.
I just can���t believe the type of ads that the GOP is using in Texas. There add against Chet Edwards is themed ���Too Liberal For Texas���. What they use as evidence as the he voted against a ban on gay adoptions and voted for allowing government funds to help gays adopt. Has the GOP read the Declaration of Independence? Do they realize that ���all men are created equal���? I am an adoptive ���straight��� parent and this ad just angers my wife and I. It seems like the GOP is trying to discriminate against gays to win swing voters. Gay people who are trying to adopt should have the exact same rights as heterosexual couples. The government provides a $10,000 tax credit for adoption and everyone should be entitled to it.
Of course, the occupier of the White House is doing this too on his proposed intrusion of State���s Rights by trying to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage.
Posted by: DFuller at October 30, 2004 09:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush may have more 'secure' states than Kerry does, Kerry has more secure big states. My count is 8-12 solid Kerry states for 139-167 electoral votes, and 17-20 solid Bush states for 136-168 electoral votes. Remember that CA+NY+IL (107 electoral votes) are among the secure Kerry states, Bush only has TX+GA+NC (64 votes).
Having said that, there seem to be more Bush votes in the next category of "probable states" - I get 7 probable Bush states for 55 electoral votes, against only NJ,NH and ME(3 EVs) for Kerry, 22 electoral votes.
This gives me Bush leading by 223-189 - still a far cry from being decisive for either candidate.
Posted by: Andre at October 30, 2004 09:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My strong Kerry states = 166 EVs
My strong Bush states = 184 EVs
Beyond that, it's time to either flip a coin or go on blind faith. Anything can (and probably will) happen in an election that could be a nail biter or a blow out. Until Election Day results start coming out, it will simply be too close to call.
Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 10:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I have spent the last week at early voting sites in Miami-Dade County Florida -- 4 days at 3 overwhelmingly Democratic sites, and yesterday at an almost (but not quite) equally overwhelmingly Republican one. At one site in a predominantly Haitian-American area, people were waiting for as long as 3 hours to vote.
The ethnic support breakdown is about what you'd expect: Cuban-Americans heavily for Bush, but with a few Kerry supporters (including one woman who asked for a Kerry button after she voted and said that she intended to wear it until the end of voting on 11/2), Haitian-Americans overwhelmingly for Kerry (although if anybody thinks that community doesn't know how to split it's ticket, I think there may be surprises in a couple of local races), African-Americans strongly for Kerry but with a few Bush supporters, but the gratifying surprise is that at least in the precincts I've been working, non-Hispanic whites being pretty strongly for Kerry if the campaign buttons are any indication. It may be that since they were voting in rather poor areas, they aren't representative of the overall non-Hispanic white population in the area, but it's gratifying nonetheless.
At mid-week, one of the local Democratic elected officials who was at a polling place I was working said that in the combined early and absentee voting, his impression was that the Democrats were doing a better job of turning out their people than the Republicans were. That could of course change this weekend, when there is early voting both afternoons (but not mornings). It's hard to get an overall picture of the battle from one foxhole, but from my personal foxhole, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.
Posted by: gary at October 30, 2004 11:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For whatever reason, I must be hitting some raw nerves here. It's common knowledge that the emergence of an Osama video precedes a terrorist attack. 4moreyears, I was referring to the notion
that Republican security moms may be afraid to vote because an Osama tape has surfaced. We've all read about the heightened security and police in force on election day. Now you have teams of challengers flooding the precincts. A scary scenario, if you ask me.
What's interesting about that Osama tape is how concilliatory and nonconfrontational he appears. Despite the fact that 100,000 Iraqis have been killed by the U.S., despite the fact of an ongoing Fallujah and Ramadi offensive, I don't see a mention of the bloodshed in Iraq and that seems very odd. It's very odd for someone concerned about Muslim injustice.
Clearly, Bush took the focus off Osama in his rush to war with Iraq and Osama is still at large, a mass murderer given more air time than some candidates, and trying to affect our election. The U.S. has come to this??
Posted by: Shar at October 30, 2004 01:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What's up guy! Hey Pepe Kerry is ahead in NJ 47-40% according to a new poll. Check out Realclearpolitics.com for details. The new OBL tape reminds people that BUSH TOOK HIS EYES OFF OBL AND RUSHED TO IRAQ. 911 happened under BUSH's watch and we still don't have OBL!
Posted by: godfrey at October 30, 2004 02:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I appreciate your explaination, Shar.
What rush to war are you talking about? Is that the 14 month rush to war where I saw my nation grovelling at the feet of a corrupt UN Security Council? That rush to war?
You think Kerry would have done things differently? Sure, that's what he says now. But look at this quote from Kerry to McGlaughlin in November 2001. TWO MONTHS AFTER 9/11!
"I have no doubt, I've never had any doubt -- and I've said this publicly -- about our ability to be successful in Afghanistan. We are and we will be. The larger issue, John, is what happens afterwards. How do we now turn attention ultimately to Saddam Hussein? How do we deal with the larger Muslim world? What is our foreign policy going to be to drain the swamp of terrorism on a global basis?"
How can this guy say now that he wouldn't have gone into Iraq when only two months after 9/11 he was encouraging the president to do just that?
I know all of this sounds harsh... I don't mean to upset anyone. But some of you have forgotten what we learned the day that madmen flew planes into the WTC. Was going into Iraq the thing to do? Only time will tell... But there is no doubt that after 9/11 it was time to turn over the applecart in the ME.
I'm sure Kerry will continue the fight in the GWoT. He says he has a plan but it makes me nervous because I hear all of these contradictions concerning Iraq and I really haven't heard any plan.
I pray to God the Clintons can retake the Democrats, because the types that are running it now are killing us.
Good luck to Kerry, but Bush has convinced me that he would be more effective in the GWoT(and yes, I believe Iraq is part of it).
Like I said before, what I do know is that Bush lives for killing these barbarians... Kerry, I'm not so sure of.
Posted by: 4moreyears at October 30, 2004 02:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hello--folks 4moreyears is obviously a troll.
Posted by: oddofme at October 30, 2004 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A 7% lead in a state like NJ is still not comforting to me. If the NJ undecideds and those only leaning towards Kerry break for Bush (due to 9/11 anxieties) at the last minute, the Garden State could be one of the evening's big upsets. I'm not expecting that to happen, which is why I would call it a major upset. The point is, it could happen.
Considering where Bush has taken us over the past 4 years, is it not astounding that Kerry is unable to pull ahead and get an unequivocal mandate from the American people? I mean, how can OH still be undecided, despite its horrible economy? The polls in OH suggest that Kerry's momentum may have peaked and now Bush is making a resurgance there. And why are so many Gore states not firmly in Kerry's column? And what can one say about HI now considered to be in play--so much so, that Cheney is actually going to campaign there! Think about it: Bush's mediocre performance in the three debates, the disasterous war in Iraq, Bin Laden on the loose, Haliburton scandals, 300 tons of missing weapons in Iraq, record-high gas prices in the USA, damaged relations with many of our allies, a mediocre economy in much of the country--and yet Kerry remains in the fight of his life. I mean, all of the above should have been much more than enough to ensure an easy Kerry victory, no? What am I missing here?
Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Regarding the Bin Laden tape and Tuesday's election:
My gut tells me that neither side can spin this to an advantage. I spent the entire day out of town on business yesterday (I am an ex-pat in BC, Canada FYI), and did not get in until about 6:00pm, justy in time to catch the news hilites. My initial reaction when I saw Osama was shock. I mean, I was just floored. My 2nd reaction was anger. Now herein lies the dilemma. I was not angry at Bin Laden. I was angry at Bush!!! After 3 yrs. plus of being told that Bin Laden was going to "smoked out of his hole..." by the Bush bunch, Osama turns up on election eve on a obvious professionally done production number looking anything but like somebody who has been on the run for the past 3 years. My gut said, "This guy is living a stress-free life in comfort somewhere. The War on Terror is a myth!!!"
After the initial shock wore off, I sat and reflected a bit about how this could affect the election. At first I thought that this might just drive some ppl. back to Bush, just on pure visceral emotion. Than I thought, NO!!! In all honesty, NO!! I believe the ppl. who watched that tape will react in much the same way I did. The only conclusion to draw from the tape is that Bush has LIED about "marginalizing" Osama.
Posted by: bigguy at October 30, 2004 03:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, I like your contributions to this board. You are a constant reminder to keep the optimism on this board cautious. But I think you are a little too worried. NJ is not going to Bush. Kerry has an excellent shot at Ohio, Florida will still go down to the wire and Hawaii probably won't matter. I think Kerry holds on relatively easily to MI,PA, and MN while he eeks out a win in Iowa. I put the election at 55-45 for Kerry right now. Don't forget Gore was left for dead until the last minute in the last election. Kerry is in a better position than Gore, if only because he has a real shot at Ohio. I don't think victories are going to be "easy" anymore when you have such a divided elective.
Posted by: Brett at October 30, 2004 04:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Brett, I have been burned too many times in the past--not just in politics, but even more so in sports. I guess having my hopes dashed time and time again makes me much more cautious about getting carried away with anything! Your post makes me feel better about things, too. I got a message on my answering machine from my mom in northeast OH, and she and a girlfriend are going to see Kerry at a rally--is it in Youngstown, I wonder?
Posted by: pepe at October 30, 2004 05:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
hey, oddofme...
believe what you want.
and bigguy... funny how you start off saying that neither side can spin the OBL tape to their advantage... then you end your comment by spinning it as an advantage for your side.
honestly, no offense intended to anyone here with any of my comments. i felt my voice needed to be heard and i've said what i've needed to say. a little dissent never hurt anyone.
again, good luck to your candidate. please vote everyone.
Posted by: 4moreyears at October 30, 2004 06:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
4moreyears, you're a first rate troll and a credit to your party. however, your efforts are wasted on this site--the demoralization work is being done quite admirably by a handful of chicken-little regulars who, perplexingly, continue to self-identify as pro-kerry. i give you credit for knowing what side you're on, but as you know republicans tend to do best by simply allowing democrats to mindlessly fall into the negative image (defeatist, naive, out-of-the-mainstream) your boys have crafted for us. your time would be more effectively spent at the polls harassing minority voters than trying to sow doubt and discord around here, because we're handling that rather well on our own, thanks very much.
everybody else... i'm tired of making this argument to people who should know better, so i'll let the much livelier and more incisive discussion at kos speak for me: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/30/122256/67
we all get a little panicky sometimes. in moments like these it's best to pause, reflect, breathe normally, try to achieve some kind of perspective, and if you still have lingering anxieties, channel them into constructive work for the GOTV effort that urgently needs your help right now. the least useful thing you can possibly do, even if in your own expert armchair analysis you believe it to be true, is throw up your hands and say, "oh well, guess we're screwed!" there will be plenty of time to relish being right when it's over; for now, let's at least pretend like we want to win.
and if you still think your shitty, cavalier attitude toward the possibility of real change doesn't have an impact, then you are no longer living on planet earth. this may all be reducible to intellectual amusement to you, but for the rest of us this election is more than a television event. what you say DOES matter, and if all you can do is regurgitate the most pessimistic punditry you overhear because you're too frightened to truly give a damn, you're no better than a troll.
Posted by: Josh at October 30, 2004 08:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe let's cut to the chase guy! I'll be straight with you and sorry if I'm politicaly incorrect; but the reason why Kerry can't pull away is because he is a Northener from Massachusetts. This country is still has many racist undertones. If Kerry was from Alabama he would win in a landslide!! That's why Clinton got a elected because he was from Arkansas. He fooled the southern whites into voting for him. Guys that's just how I feel. I live in Cali THis state is diverse and open-minded. You would never find me in Idaho! Peace
Posted by: godfrey at October 31, 2004 01:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Am I the only one who saw John Zogby on "The Daily Show" last Wednesday/Thursday (I watch the rerun) say that Kerry would win? He said insufficient Bush numbers, nothing above 50% and the 80-20/70-30 'undecided' break would be enough.
Posted by: Jack Linthicum at October 31, 2004 08:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I've wondered about that, godfrey, but then why didn't Al Gore (native of TN) win a single Southern state? Had he won his home state of TN he would have been president. I guess folks in TN felt he lost touch with his home state and was "too Beltway D.C." I don't know. I do agree with you that Kerry's being from MA is not helping him in the South. But that shouldn't be a liability in places like IA, WI, MN, MI, NM, CO, AZ, OH, PA, NH, HI, OR, should it? I realize Kerry is leading in many of the states I just listed, but why doesn't Kerry have these states overwhelmingly on his side, considering how Bush has failed us on so many levels, domestically and internationally? This election could still be a landslide for Kerry in terms of EVs, but it will a nail biter within the individual swing states--meaning it will be far closer than it appears, should it be a blow out due to the Electoral College.
Posted by: pepe at October 31, 2004 08:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment