Swing State Project

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette Endorses Bush

The largest paper in the state of Arkansas endorsed President Bush today (subscription required). This isn't surprising because it endorsed him in 2000 and has continously supported him since.

However, Arkansas is still in play. A new poll by Opinion Research was released yesterday and has both candidates tied at 48%. This same poll gave Bush a 9 point lead just two weeks ago. Former President Clinton is said to have asked Kerry to make a visit to Arkansas and might make one on Kerry's behalf himself. The NY Daily News reports today:

Clinton is seen by many as a key weapon in Kerry's plan to overtake President Bush in the poll that counts - next Tuesday's vote. And with a new tracking poll showing Bush and Kerry now even in Arkansas, a state the GOP thought it had sewn up, there was speculation Clinton may add his home state to his itinerary.

"That is something that we're not yet ready to reveal," said Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart, who served as an aide to the former commander-in-chief. Among other possible battleground stops for Clinton this week is New Mexico.

If nothing else, this has to leave the Bush campaign feeling uneasy and possibly looking at targeting Arkansas with new ad buys that will cost them elsewhere. As for Clinton, the Daily News article says that he'll talk with Diane Sawyer this morning on Good Morning America.

Posted at 07:39 AM in Arkansas | Comments (23) | Technorati

A Note to Advertisers

I just wanted to pen a quick note to potential advertisers. As everyone knows, there's just one week until election day. Traffic has been surging here lately, and I'm sure it will spike as November 2nd approaches. So if you'd like to get one last ad in, now's the time. The top corner slots are both taken for now, but you can absolutely place an ad in the main strip. (FYI: For the time being, I am only accepting ads for one-week placements.)

Please feel free to use this as an open thread.

Posted at 02:37 AM in Site News | Comments (2) | Technorati

Saturday, October 23, 2004

The Final 11, According to the NYT

The New York Times says that ads are running in just eleven states now. The Gore states:

Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

The Bush states:

Colorado
Florida
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio

The NYT talks about sudden Bush surge in Michigan - does anyone know what they are talking about? Because I don't see it. Of course, this piece is written by Adam Nagourney and Kit Seelye, two of the worst heathers at the Times. And they manage to squeeze in a Bush campaign criticism of Kerry for visiting Colorado, while just mentioning in passing Bush's absurdly wasted time in NJ.

They also make the typical mistake of acting as though all of these states are equally in play, and they say that Kerry is in worse shape because there are six Gore states allegedly up for grabs while only five Bush states are. But I think we all know that PA, NM and MI are quite unlikely to flip at this point, while NH, OH and FL are very likely to.

The piece also says nothing about where the 527s and other affiliates are on the air. I think there could easily be a surprise switch outside of this list, at least in part due to the activities of non-campaign groups.

Posted at 09:16 PM in General | Comments (100) | Technorati

Friday, October 22, 2004

Swing the Bat for Ginny & Open Thread

You all know how the bat works - now it's Ginny's turn at the plate. Though we have already far exceeded our original goal - we've raised over $4800 - the Schrader campaign needs to send out one final mailing, and they need our help. We aren't setting any particular goal this time - we just want to contribute as much as we can by Wednesday at midnight. Let's do something of Red Sox-ian proportions here. Please give whatever you can.

Please feel free to use this as an open thread as well, as I'm travelling today.

Posted at 03:44 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (42) | Technorati

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Final Call For Links

With the election hovering practically moments away, I wanted to take one last opportunity to ask people for links. I'm looking primarily for two types of sites:

�Ģ Blogs which cover politics in a particular swing state. A good example would be New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan, which focuses on the NM scene like a laser.

�Ģ Groups which organize swing state activism. The foremost example would, of course, be ACT, but groups of almost any size qualify.

Also, if you use any good political reference resources, let us know as well. Some of my favorites include Jim Howard's electoral college calculator and Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

I'm much obliged. And feel free to use this as an open thread as well.

Posted at 01:28 PM in Site News | Comments (41) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Zogby's 10/19 Poll Now Available

Zogby's latest is out. Here's what it looks like:

Bush retakes NV, OH, AR and FL. All Bush leads are quite small, and he is at 50% or greater in just MO, TN, FL and OH. His highest showing is 50.7% in Missouri. I don't need to remind you that Zogby's been quite volative all year, so take from this what you will.

Posted at 01:24 PM in General | Comments (12) | Technorati

Open Thread

Discuss the latest polling & other developments here. I'll try to put one of these up every day from now until election day. Tonight, I'm doing election protection training over at American University's law school, courtesy of Impact 2004.

P.S. It looks like veteran pollster Mark Blumenthal agrees with my take on Ohio: Bush is in trouble.

Posted at 12:22 PM in General | Comments (42) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

U. Cincy's New Ohio Poll: Whoa!

Around a month ago, the University of Cincinnati conducted a poll which showed George Dubya Bush with a whopping eleven-point lead. Yes, it was not long after the Republican convention, but the prior "Ohio Poll" (as they call it) in August had shown Kerry with a two-point lead. Well, look who's back on top (PDF) (likely voters, mid-September in parens):

Kerry: 48 (43)
Bush: 46 (54)
Other/Undecided: 6 (3)
(MoE: 3.6%)

I'm less interested in the actual horserace numbers than I am the swing - that's 13 points in our boy JFK's direction in just a month. Either September was a serious outlier (though I don't think anyone convincingly argued that at the time), or we've got some big mo'.

We've done well shoring up our base: 88% of Dems are voting for Kerry (compared with 90% of Republicans for Bush) - and the independents are firmly in our camp, by a 55-26 margin (small subset, however, so bigger MoE). Favorability was not asked.

With the exception of a couple of GOP-conducted polls, Bush has not gone above 49% in the month of October. Anyone who has come to appreciate the 50% rule knows that this is dangerous territory for Bush. In fact, it's even worse than that: Between the previous U. Cincy poll (the one I mentioned above which showed Bush at 54-43) and now, only one non-partisan poll, done by the Columbus Dispatch, had Bush at 50+%.

This is going to be a major nailbiter. And I think right now, the polling - not just this one poll, but all of them in aggregate - is slightly in Kerry's favor.

(Thanks to reader HypoSpeaks.)

Posted at 01:15 PM in Ohio | Comments (19) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, October 19

Chris's National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry 50.0
Bush 48.0
Other 2.0
Polls Included: ABC LV, Rasmussen, TIPP 2-Way and Zogby
(Methodology)

Incumbent Rule
Undecideds Remaining: 5.1%
Bush leads 47.0-45.9 without undecideds allocated.

Chris's Electoral Projection
Kerry: 316, 222 solid
Bush: 222, 69 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH and OH to Kerry

State by State
AZ: Bush +3.4
AR: Bush +5.2
CO: Bush +3.7
FL: Kerry +1.2
IA: Kerry +2.1
ME, State: Kerry +4.9
ME, CD-2: Kerry +2.7
MI: Kerry +7.9
MN: Kerry +3.2
MO: Bush +1.4
NV: Kerry +0.3
NH: Kerry +6.1
NM: Kerry +1.8
NC: Bush +3.1
OH: Kerry +1.2
OR: Kerry +5.2
PA: Kerry +6.5
VA: Bush +4.1
WA: Kerry +7.4
WV: Bush +4.3
WI: Kerry +2.3

Kerry has taken the lead according to every single electoral vote predictor that is updated daily. Bush is being propped up by the ABC tracking poll showing him at 50. It sure is sweet to see Kerry���s solid states pass Bush���s total states.

Posted at 01:12 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (78) | Technorati

Monday, October 18, 2004

We're Making a Play for Colorado

Many of you probably just got the same e-mail from Michael Whouley at the DNC that I did. Here's the important bit:

You deserve some specifics: At one point during the meeting talk turned to Colorado. Many pundits thought this state was in the win column for George Bush. But polls show this is not the case -- we can win Colorado. We decided that we should be aggressive here and once again the answer was "go for it." On the night of November 2, when Colorado is called for John Kerry, know it was because of you.

Interesting. So, assuming that "go for it" really does mean "go for it," this tells us a few things. First, obviously, is that the DNC thinks the state can turn blue. Second, that they don't expect the EV-splitting initiative to pass. If it does, fighting for a majority of CO's popular vote would only net us on additional EV, which would be a waste of time. And third, the DNC wants to make a real effort for CO's Senate seat & the various competitive Congressional races. Now, the DNC's job is to get Kerry elected president - winning the Senate and House is the responsibility of the DSCC and the DCCC, respectively. But obviously these guys all talk to each other, and I have to imagine that our Congressional prospects had something to do with this decision.

So we'll see how this shakes out. We are in fact still running ads in Colorado, so it's not clear to me exactly how this changes our game plan - but perhaps now the state will see a stronger last-minute push.

By the way, the AP article linked just above indicates that the battleground - at least as it's being fought over the airwaves - has shrunk to just fourteen states: FL, OH, PA, WV, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, OR, WI and, of course, CO. If you ask me, we have no business wasting time in West Virginia anymore, but why on earth is Bushco blowing bucks in NH, MI, OR and, to a certain extent, ME? Sorry, what I mean is, it sure is great to see the GOP spending money in all those states!

Posted at 03:10 PM in Colorado | Comments (42) | Technorati

Predictions, Part 1

This is where things start getting fun: prediction-time. Here's the two-part question I'll pose this for this thread:

Which five Bush in 2000 states are most likely to go blue, and which five Gore states are most likely to turn red?

Post your predictions in the comments below, in order from most likely to switch to least likely.

(Thanks to bigguy for the suggestion.)

UPDATE: For some odd reason, the comments link to this thread was broken. I re-posted this entry, and the comments look like they're working just fine now.

Posted at 11:20 AM in General | Comments (63) | Technorati

Sunday, October 17, 2004

Research 2K Poll in NH

According to Polling Report, Research 2000 just did a new poll in New Hampshire for the Concord Monitor. However, I can't find any stories about it yet. In any event, here are the details (likely voters, 9/20 - 9/23 in parens):

Kerry: 49 (46)
Bush: 45 (46)
Other/Undecided: 6 (8)
(MoE: ��4%)

John Kerry is slightly ahead in favorability, 48-42, while Bush is at 45-46. (The "other," by the way, include 2% for Ralph.) Fact is, New Hampshire is in the bag for us. Bush has only hit 50% in any poll once ever, and has hit 49% just once as well. Kerry has led almost every time. A year ago, when I first began this site, I opined that New Hampshire was moving steadily blue-ward. I think that prediction will bear out.

In all likelihood, NH's four electoral votes won't come into play. Nonetheless, it's nice to see the Northeast turn solid blue, and any state that moves out of the GOP's grasp is, of course, good news for us. Hopefully, in the coming years, this Dem trend will affect NH's Congressional representation as well.

UPDATE: Link available here.

Posted at 03:36 PM in General | Comments (32) | Technorati

Saturday, October 16, 2004

Ginny Raises $350K in Third Quarter

Just a quick update on Ginny Schrader: She managed to raise an impressive $350,000 during the third quarter of this year - impressive because no one knew who she was until three weeks into the quarter, when Stephen Yellin wrote his now-famous post about the race. Ginny now has over a quarter million cash-on-hand to finish out the race. And the $4,000 we raised for her is a nifty chunk of that.

Her opponent, radical anti-choice extremist Mike Fitzpatrick, pulled down $567K and has $424K left. Don't be intimidated by these numbers. Fitzpatrick should have raised a lot more, given his high profile in the region. And he needs to out-raise Ginny, because the 8th CD leans Dem. What's more, ACT and all the other associated 527s have been working overtime in the Philly region - while Bush has pulled out of PA altogether. Our ground game is going to kick their ground game's ass.

And I have a very strong feeling that Ginny Schrader will be the first Representative in Congress to unofficially carry a (D-Blogosphere) tag, and proudly so.

Posted at 03:25 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (1) | Technorati

Final State Polls from the 2000 Election

CADem took a look at the final state polls for each state in 2000. His hard work shows that the swing states looked like this:

Arizona: Last poll showed Bush up by 10 points, outside the margin of error. Bush won by 6.

Arkansas: The last three, concurrent, polls showed a tie, Bush by 1 and Bush by 3, respectively. Bush won by 6.

California: Also three polls, showing Gore up only by 3, 5 and 7, respectively. Gore won by roughly 12.

Delaware: Last poll had Bush up by 4. Gore won by 13. Great poll, guys.

Florida: The last poll, Zogby's, showed Gore up 3. Well, you know what happened.

Iowa: Two last polls showed Gore up by 1 and 2 points, respectively. Gore won by a hair.

Maine: Last poll showed a 42-42 tie. Gore won by 5.

Michigan: Last poll showed Gore up by 7, but still within the margin of error. Gore won by 4.

Missouri: A split. Of the two last polls, one showed Gore up 1 point and the other showed Bush up 4. Bush won by 4.

Nevada: Last poll had Bush up by 4. Bush won by 3.

New Hampshire: Last poll had Bush up big, by 10. Bush only won by a hair.

New Mexico: Two last polls showed a tie and Bush up by 3, respectively. Gore won narrowly.

Ohio: Two last polls, one by Zogby (who was right on nationally), showed Bush up by 9 and 10, both outside the margin of error. Gore lost by 4.

Oregon: A split. Last two polls showed Gore up by 1 and down by 4, respectively. Gore won by a fraction of a percent.

Pennsylvania: Last poll showed Gore up by 2. Gore won by 4.

Tennessee: The writing was on the wall. Two last polls showed Bush up by 4. Bush won by 3.

Virginia: Last poll showed Bush up by 6. Bush won by 7.

Washington: Last poll showed Gore up by 4. He won by 5.

West Virginia: Of three last polls, two showed Bush up by 10 points, and one had Bush up only by 2. Bush won by 6.

Wisconsin: Last poll showed Bush up by 2. Gore won by a hair.

As you can see, there are a couple of states in there (CA & DE) which truly are not swing states this time out. And some nominally swingy states this time around (CO, NC, LA) didn't make CADem's list.

Posted at 11:12 AM in General | Comments (10) | Technorati

Friday, October 15, 2004

Who Is Insider Advantage, and What Do They Know About Florida?

Insider Advantage is a polling firm I've heard very little about, yet they've popped up with not one but two Florida polls in just three days' time. Their website doesn't offer very much - I'm getting everything from Race2004.net, which is in turn getting its info from the National Journal.

Anyhow, in a poll that concluded on October 12, Bush was up 47-44. Just two days later, they had Kerry up 48-44. A seven-point swing in just two days seems quite improbable to me, though one major event (the final debate) did take place during that time. Both of these polls apparently have 5% margins of error, which is bigger than any other pollster's margin in any Florida poll, ever.

What do you think?

P.S. A totally unrelated topic: If you have subscribed to the Bloglet e-mail updates for this site, please let me know if you've been receiving them lately. Thanks.

Posted at 02:50 PM in Florida | Comments (17) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, September 15

National Popular Vote Projection
Bush: 49.1
Kerry: 48.9
Other: 2.0
Status: Toss-Up
Polls Included: Rasmussen, TIPP and Zogby

Electoral Projection
Kerry: 311, 197 solid
Bush: 227, 153 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, NH and OH to Kerry

The Battleground
AZ: Bush +4.5
AR: Bush +2.9
CO: Bush +3.6
FL: Kerry +3.5
IA: Kerry +1.0
ME, State: Kerry +4.7
ME, CD-2: Kerry +2.5
MI: Kerry +6.8
MN: Kerry +4.9
MO: Bush +2.5
NV: Bush +0.9
NH: Kerry +0.2
NM: Kerry +5.9
NC: Bush +4.2
OH: Kerry +1.1
OR: Kerry +4.1
PA: Kerry +3.4
VA: Bush +5.3
WA: Kerry +7.6
WV: Bush +5.4
WI: Kerry +4.7

Sorry about the one-week absence. I have spent the last several days examining polling methodologies, in order to determine which polls I would include in my dataset. In the end, I have decided to go with only the Rasmussen, TIPP, and Zogby tracking polls. The advantage of using only these three is that they are updated every day, so I have no need to ever change the size of the dataset. Further, I pretty much agree with the methodology used by all three. ABC isn't as bad as I thought it was, but it is not good enough for me to add it. At least it isn't Gallup.

This system should, overall, do a very good job of accounting for the Incumbent Rule (by allocating 80% of undecideds to Kerry), Party ID (all three polls I use weight by Party ID, albeit somewhat differently), and historical voting patterns (because I use the partisan index). What this system will not do a very good job of measuring is the way this election might be different from previous elections, especially concerning turnout. My projections are so deeply mired in polling history that the further 2004 deviates from past elections, the more inaccurate I will be.

Posted at 02:32 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (17) | Technorati

Charlie Cook Shares His Thoughts

Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook did an online chat over at the Washington Post a few days ago. It's most definitely worth a read. Here are a few highlights:

�Ģ Pollsters, almost all of whom use random digit dialing, should be capturing newly registered voters - so don't be tempted to dismiss polls based on the large numbers of new voters. A genuine problem, though, is that polling companies can't reach voters who only have cell phones.
�Ģ The GOP, Cook says, has a 75 to 80% chance of retaining control of the Senate.
�Ģ In "all probability," the victor will be the man who wins two out of the three main battlegrounds: PA, OH, FL.
�Ģ Cook says there are eleven toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. However, he goes on to say that if the popular vote margin is greater than 1%, the Electoral College doesn't matter.
�Ģ He thinks that turnout will be the highest in 30 years, and that consequently, various state referendums (particularly on gay marriage) won't matter that much in terms of pushing voters to the polls.

Cook also disses Zogby's Internet polls and SUSA's automated telephone polls, even though SUSA has a pretty good track record and the verdict is still out on Zogby. But go check out the chat yourself.

(Via Race2004.net.)

Posted at 02:26 PM in General | Comments (3) | Technorati

What We Do From Here on Out

Today, October 15th, is the final FEC filing deadline of this election cycle. We're soon going to find out which campaigns fared well and which fared poorly over the last quarter. What this also means is that we're reaching the point where donations of cash are less important than donations of time. A fat bank account can't do voter outreach and get people to the polls on election day.

This is where we come in. If you haven't already, it's time to volunteer. I've plugged many groups, but as I've said before, the one I recommend most highly is America Coming Together. There are three reasons for this. First, ACT is everywhere - they almost certainly can get you plugged in near where you live. Second, everyone I know who has worked with ACT has had a great experience. And third, ACT is in this for the long haul. Like everyone else, ACT wants to - and plans to - win right now. But they also are taking the long view of things and want to help build the party for years to come.

If you want to hook up directly with a campaign, you can certainly call the Kerry people. One alternative I would suggest, though, is that you see if there are any smaller local or state campaigns in your area. To find out which races are the most competitive, visit ActBlue, which also has links to candidates' websites.

Finally, if you are a lawyer, law student or legal professional, your special skills will be of critical importance on election day. I don't need to remind anyone about the importance of making sure huge numbers of Americans don't get disenfranchised again. For law students, check out Impact 2004, which is the group I'm getting involved with. They offer training sessions and volunteer opportunities in swing states. Impact is part of an umbrella group called the Election Protection Coalition, which is another place you can sign up, particularly if you're an attorney. And lastly, there is the Democratic Party's Voting Rights Institute, which also wants volunteers.

Readers: If you've done work with a campaign or other pro-Dem group, please tell us about your experience in the comments. And if you want to make a pitch for a particular group, do that as well.

Posted at 01:52 PM in Activism | Comments (1) | Technorati

Thursday, October 14, 2004

Is Zogby Right About Arkansas?

Team Kerry has all but pulled out of Arkansas. I know that some people on this disagree with this move, but I'm not sure where exactly I come down. Most pollsters show Bush winning the state pretty handily at this point, but Zogby has consistently shown it to be a close race. Here are all the known polls since the Republican convention:

I want to point out that the Zogby polls listed here aren't all just the Interactive polls. The most recent one at the top appears to be a traditional poll, so I find it quite interesting that those results match so closely with Zogby's online results. As you can see, Zogby has even had Kerry leading by a tiny bit on occasion. And Bush is well below 49% in all polls.

So what gives? If we were just talking about the online polls, I might be tempted to write these results off. But the coroboration by the traditional poll is quite striking. And Zogby has polled this race too often to be written off as a mere outlier. But if Zogby is really correct, that would mean Rasmussen, SUSA and Opinion Research are all wrong - though ARG's 9/16 poll does appear to be in common with Zogby's results.

What if the Big Dog delivers a great speech in Little Rock, rising from a wheelchair, Roosevelt-like, on the eve of the election? Might Bush be in for a nasty November surprise in Arkansas? It's easy to think of many scenarios where AR's 6 EVs would make the difference for us, so I would hate to see the state wind up as this year's Ohio.

So what do you think? Can we win here, despite the apparent pullout?

(Poll data courtesy Race2004.net.)

Posted at 02:14 PM in Arkansas | Comments (59) | Technorati

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Final Debate Open Thread

I don't have a TV where I am right now, so I'm perusing the blogs for coverage. What do you think so far?

UPDATE: Okay, I've got it on an NPR Internet feed. Did you just catch that weird moment where Bush said something like, "I don't think it's appropriate to quote major news organizations... well, nevermind." What was that all about?

Posted at 09:14 PM in General | Comments (77) | Technorati

Bush Pulling Out of PA

Word on the street is that the Bush campaign is ditching Pennsylvania. If so, this would be interesting - they'd be the first campaign to abandon a major, top-tier battleground. (I don't consider Missouri to fall into this category.) Combined pro-Bush expenditures show only one PA city (Harrisburg) on the top-ten list, and the Bush campaign itself actually has zero PA media markets on its list.

So, the battle will now be fought in Ohio and Florida. Good. What about Wisconsin and Iowa, you ask? Well, they start to matter a lot less with PA no longer in play. If we win FL, we will win even if we lose both WI and IA. OH is a bit dicier - we lose with OH going to Kerry but WI and IA going to Bush. We'd need to pick up a couple of small states to make up the difference. Nonetheless, it goes without saying that the fewer states we have to defend - especially the fewer big states - the better.

Posted at 05:13 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (15) | Technorati

Massive Voter Fraud in Nevada

This story is getting a lot of play in the left-blogosphere, but not enough in the media: Apparently, a private voter registration firm working in Nevada has been collecting registrations - and then throwing out those marked "Democrat." Bastards.

More from Tapped, DailyKos, TPM. If you're in Nevada and you or a friend has registered Dem recently, you should double-check to make sure your registration is valid. This is an outrage.

UPDATE: This shit just doesn't fucking end. Read this summary and prepare to get really, really angry. Then, call ACT and get out into the field to fight these bastards.

Posted at 12:38 PM in Nevada | Comments (33) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Whither the Swing State Project?

Lately, a number of people have asked me, "What are you going to do with the Swing State Project after the election?" Given the relatively narrow focus of this site - it's right up there in the banner - it's a good question. I've thought about it a lot, though, and I don't have too many good answers. So I want to solicit some reader advice. These are some of the ideas so far:

1) Keep the site and focus on swing state activism. Even if there are no hot races for some time, we can always talk about ways to help people get involved in activism. (I'm sure ACT, for instance, will focus on this big-time in the off-years.) Of course, this would mean broadening the site to cover "swing" Senate, House and state/local races, but that's fine with me.

2) Start something new (though probably related), and redirect this site there.

3) Mission Accomplished - call it quits, job (hopefully) well done.

This site now gets pretty decent traffic, and I really enjoy the community that's formed here. I'd hate to see it all go, but I certainly wouldn't mind a break. If you have any other suggestions, please post in the comments.

Posted at 08:33 PM in Site News | Comments (26) | Technorati

Open Thread

The last thread was getting a bit stale, so here's a new one until I can do some real posting after class today. Also, Race2004.net says that Bush may be pulling out of Washington state, which is not a big surprise. So the list gets pared down further.

Posted at 11:41 AM in General | Comments (67) | Technorati

Sunday, October 10, 2004

Kerry Notching Swing State Newspaper Endorsements

In the early running, John Kerry has taken a sizable lead in garnerning daily newspaper editorial board endorsements. Circulation-wise, he's beating Bush by 5-1 so far. He's also picked up several big swing state papers recently: The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Portland (Maine) Herald-Press, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Arizona Daily Star of Tucson, and the Oregonian of Portland, which supported Bush in 2000. (They aren't getting fooled again.) And previously, Kerry was endorsed by the Seattle Times (another Bush in 2K supporter) and the Philadelphia Daily News.

The only big swing state paper Bush has won over is the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Okay, sure, he's also gotten the endorsement of the Findlay, Ohio Courier... but I don't think Bush wants to be touting a paper that has fewer daily readers than, oh, MyDD.

Posted at 11:56 AM in General | Comments (57) | Technorati

Friday, October 08, 2004

Weekend Debate Open Thread

I decided to ignore my own advice about not scheduling two callbacks on the same day - big mistake. I'm zonked. Anyhow, here's a new open thread for your chatting pleasure.

Also, the Boston Globe is still looking for voters in swing states who have switched political affiliations (or at least voting intentions). So if you're a recovering Republican & you'd like to talk to the media, shoot me an e-mail (davidnyc -at- swingstateproject.com) and I'll put you in touch with the Globe.

P.S. The AP wrote a story about Jeff's campaign manager for-a-day plan, and it's been picked up by thirty papers. Sweet!

P.P.S. And you can discuss the debate here, too. Is it just me, or is George Bush yelling?

Posted at 06:12 PM in General | Comments (45) | Technorati

Into the Final Stretch in Pennsylvania

I'm heading down to Pittsburgh tonight to watch the debate and do some canvassing tomorrow. This will be my second time out knocking on doors with the Sierra Club. This is kind of an issue for me as knocking on doors doesn't suit my personality. But its work that needs done. In any case, this is a good time to take into account the status of the election here in Pennsylvania.

Kerry has re-shifted into a slight lead in virtually all of the state polls:

ARG (Oct. 4-6): Kerry 48, Bush 46, MOE=4%
Survey USA (Oct. 3-5): Kerry 49, Bush 47, MOE=3.6%
WHYY (Oct. 1-4): Kerry 50, Bush 43, MOE=4%
Keystone (Sept. 30-Oct. 4): Kerry 49, Bush 43, MOE=4%
Rasmussen (Sept. 25 - Oct. 1): Kerry 47, Bush 47, MOE=4%

This is all good stuff. And there is also the voter registration news that Fester posted about a week back. There was another article in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporting 100,000 new registations in Pennsylvania. And now of course is the key - getting these people out to vote. This may in fact be the hardest part. As the Post-Gazette noted in a subsequent editorial:

"In any case, all of this registration is pointless if new voters don't go to the polls on Nov. 2 or vote absentee in advance. It is one thing to sign up to vote, but the job's not done -- the sacred democratic transaction is not completed -- until a person makes a choice on Election Day."

Posted at 02:07 PM in Pennsylvania | Comments (12) | Technorati

Thursday, October 07, 2004

General Election Cattle Call, October 7

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 50.2 (49.5)
Bush: 47.8 (48.5)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Included: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 296, 221 (274, 187)
Bush: 242, 163 (264, 209)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: FL, NH and NV to Kerry
States Changing Hands Since Last Projection: FL, NV and WI to Kerry; OH to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: AR, OH for Bush (26, with AR moving under three points); FL, NV, NH, and WI for Kerry

Here���s one area where Kerry has flip-flopped: in the polls. Before the debate, the projected Electoral College standing was almost precisely the inverse of where it currently stands. Since the debate, Kerry has all but completely eliminated the gap between himself and Bush both nationally and in many important swing states. In many lean-Democratic states, Kerry has opened wide leads. He now only trails Bush 46.8-46.1 without undecideds allocated. For Bush to be under 47 without undecideds allocated places him in very dangerous territory, as almost all undecideds break for the challenger in Presidential Elections.

This, of course, is by no means to imply that Kerry is in a secure position. The campaign has changed directions several times in the past, and it could easily change at least one more time before it is over. Tomorrow���s debate will be huge. Kerry needs at least a draw. A victory could put bush on the ropes.

Posted at 03:08 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (41) | Technorati

Open Thread

I may or may not get to post again before Friday night or Saturday morning. So here's a new open thread for you, fresh out of the oven. More polls than you can shake a stick at here, including one which shows Maine's 2nd CD going to Bush. I am sure all the polling geeks here (I include myself, of course) will love that one.

Posted at 01:17 PM in General | Comments (7) | Technorati

Yesterday You Voted - Today's the Day

Yesterday, over 1200 people voted to decide Jeff Seemann's schedule for today, and now you can click here to see what it looks like. Looks pretty darn good to me. (Hey, Jeff, maybe you can cut costs by using us as your campaign manager every day?) And how can you not love the fact that people voted for Jeff to tuck his daughter in at 9 o'clock? So sweet!

The campaign is already getting some good local coverage in the Canton Repository, hopefully with more to follow. And we should also expect some updates from the campaign itself. Good luck today, Jeff!

Posted at 01:07 PM in Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | Technorati

Rally for Kerry in MO

Speaking of Missouri, Team Kerry is having a big ol' rally after the debate this Friday night. If you're in the St. Louis area, go, have fun, listen to JFK and then go get some beers afterwards. But sign up for (free) tickets first. If that's not enough revelry, you can Drink Liberally next Wednesday, too.

And if you are still thinking about doing volunteer work in a swing state but haven't made any plans yet, ACT will hook you up.

P.S. More callback interviews this Friday, plus I'll be staying in NYC for the weekend. (Gonna do a little J-E-T-S on Sunday.) I'll be posting, but probably a little lighter than usual.

Posted at 02:48 AM in Activism, Missouri | Technorati

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Update: Arkansas

The latest from Zogby gives Kerry a 0.2% lead in Arkansas (46.9% Kerry vs. 46.7% Bush). This is a good sign that the recent Bush surge in the state has come to a halt (the last few polls had Bush pulling out in front.) It's also a good sign because Arkansas is an important swing state: It's six electoral votes could prove to be important in getting Kerry over the hump of the 270 EVs needed to win the election in certain scenarios where the five EVs of Nevada, New Mexico, or West Virginia would leave Kerry with only 269 EVs.

It appears that the fight to keep Nader off the ballot in Arkansas is now dead, after the Arkansas Supreme Court ruled Friday, by a 4-3 margin, to overturn a circuit court's ruling that the "signatories who petitioned for Nader's name to be on the ballot had not declared him as their candidate." However, Nader received only 1.46% of the popular vote in 2000 in Arkansas, and I'm not so sure there won't be more Republicans than Democrats casting their vote for Nader this time around.

Overall, I'd say that things look pretty positive in Arkansas: There's a strong ground campaign, lots of attention on the grand opening of the Clinton Presidential Center in 42 days, and I've noticed an increase in support for Kerry in the letters section of the state's largest newspaper, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Michael Moore was in the state Sunday to speak in front of a packed audience at a local University, and he allowed the sister of deceased Beatle George Harrison to say a few words on her disagreement with the war in Iraq. (This sort of stuff plays big in Arkansas!)

Finally, I want to note that the SSP was mentioned in an article on the front page of the Democrat-Gazette (unfortunately, it's subscription only). The article was about the Democrats successfully deploying a larger number of out-of-state ground troops in Arkansas than the GOP. Here's an excerpt:

For those who want to participate in such up-close politics, several Internet sites have popped up this election season, designed to enable volunteers to travel with ease into swing states across the country both to register voters and, now, after most registration deadlines have passed, participate in getout-the-vote efforts.

Most of those Web sites, including drivingvotes.org, swingstateproject.com, moveon.org and swingthestate.org, which advertises itself as the "anti-Bush travel agency," are geared toward Democrats.

Congratulations David and SSP'ers!

Posted at 11:40 PM in Arkansas | Comments (34) | Technorati

Is Yucca Mountain Really a Big Deal?

I've been beating the drum of Yucca Mountain for quite some time. I figured Kerry, who opposed the government's plan to bury all of our nuclear waste there, could make a lot of hay out of the issue. And in fact, he has brought it up, time and again, including yesterday.

But I just came across a poll from a few weeks ago, conducted by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. They asked voters which issue was "most influential" in guiding their voting decisions. It turns out that Yucca Mountain was the top priority for just 3%. (The full list is here.)

Three percent is surely enough to swing Nevada, but if you are listing that issue as tops, then I assume you're already voting against Bush. The question is, is there still time to convince other Nevadas - ie, swing voters, or soft Bush supporters - that Yucca should be a priority?

I think it's possible. Yucca can be sold not just as an environmental issue but also as a security issue. Undoubtedly, Yucca Mountain would become one of the most heavily-guarded spots in the country. But trucks and rail cars full of nuclear waste, travelling across the entire lower 48, will surely make much easier - and much more tempting - terrorist targets. If you look at that list again, you'll see that security-related matters top the list. I think this dog will hunt.

UPDATE: I should add that the Review-Journal has already endorsed Bush, so just bear that in mind.

Posted at 09:54 PM in Nevada | Comments (3) | Technorati

New Zogby Interactive Out

How do ya like them apples:

Kerry retakes Ohio and Nevada, albeit by very narrow margins. But Kerry improved in 12 of 16 states since the last set of polls (released 9/20). In the four states in which Kerry lost ground, three (OR, NM, and MN) are where he's got some of his biggest leads.

Zogby thinks the debate had something to do with this, which would mean it had a fairly strong effect, because part of this poll was taken before the debate.

UPDATE: A correction: Ed in the comments observes that all of the polling was conducted after the first presidential debate - my goof. Perhaps that's why this release was a couple of days later than expected.

Posted at 07:07 PM in General | Comments (20) | Technorati

Manage the Seemann Campaign for a Day!

Oh, man, this is so awesome - this is SUCH a cool idea. I can't tell you how many times during the Dean campaign I said to myself (or whomever would listen), "I wish I could be in charge for a day!" But Jeff Seemann is letting his supporters do exactly that: We get to decide everything Jeff does for an entire day. In other words, the Seemann campaign is letting the netroots become his virtual campaign manager for a day. Totally brilliant.

So how do you get involved? Follow this link. The staff has broken up Jeff's day into various segments, and we can vote on what we think Jeff should be doing in each time block. You think Jeff is best served by doing some blogging? You can vote for that. You want Jeff to go make some noise at the Timken factory? You can vote for that, too.

If you want some background on the various issues that affect Ohio's 16th CD, you should check out Jeff's website. You can also visit the DailyKos diaries of Tim Tagaris, Jeff's communications director, and Jeff's own DKos diary. And there's also the campaign's new blog.

Anyhow, go vote! This is the ultimate in netroots wish fulfillment: your chance to truly have a seat at the table. And if you are so inspired, you should give Jeff some turkee, or if you live in his area, volunteer for him.

UPDATE: A Raw Story partner has a piece on this, with a cute headline: "Candidate Ditches Manager, Hires Internet."

ANOTHER UPDATE: Kossacks, go recommend this diary by Jeff himself - everyone should have a chance to participate in this historic event.

Posted at 03:00 PM in Activism, Ohio | Comments (1) | Technorati

Missouri Still in Play?

Well, well, well - whaddya know? After a slew of polls showing Bush over 50% in Missouri, SUSA pegs him at 49% (likely voters, early September in parens):

Kerry: 47 (46)
Bush: 49 (48)
Other/undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ��3.8%)

It's also a one-point fight in the Governor's race, though we are getting smoked in the Senate campaign.

Anyhow, I swear I read somewhere that even though the Kerry campaign isn't spending any more money in MO, the 527s have stepped in big-time. I thought I had read it around a week or two ago in the New York Times, but I have been utterly unable to retrieve it. If you've seen any similar stories anywhere else, kindly post a link.

I think it's important to keep the other side sweating in Missouri so that they can't pull out their resources and funnel them to Florida or Ohio. There are also several important House races in the mix, so staying strong on the ground is essential.

At this point, I'd predict that MO will likely be a very narrow loss for us. However, if Kerry can stay strong in the last two debates and the media narrative is "Wow! This race is close!" rather than, "Kerry is still struggling," then I think Missouri is a definite possibility for us.

Posted at 02:25 PM in Missouri | Comments (8) | Technorati

Won't Get Fooled Again

For your Wednesday morning activist pleasure... Operation "Shame on You," which I mentioned not long ago, has spun off into its own site and renamed itself Operation "Fool Me Once," which I like a lot better. The goal is to convince newspapers which endorsed Bush in 2000 to endorse Kerry this time around by writing letters to the editor.

And this time, the new boss won't be the same as the old boss, not by a long shot.

Posted at 02:11 AM in Activism | Technorati

It's Close in Ohio

So the headline states the obvious, but what more is there to say? SUSA has a new Ohio poll out, which shows our boy with the narrowest of leads (likely voters, early September in parens):

Kerry: 49 (47)
Bush: 48 (50)
Other/Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ��3.6%)

The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate, but it was a weekend poll, so apply whatever caveats you feel are appropriate. Yeah, this lead is what they like to call "statistically insignificant," but what I think is a bit more legit is the four point swing from B+3 to K+1.

I like SUSA - I think they are fairly reliable, and I also love the PDFs they release for each poll. I only wish they'd ask more questions, particularly about favorability. They do assert in their headline that this result is due to the debate, which is nice to hear. Not that you needed me to tell you this, but the race in this state is certain to come down to the wire. I don't think future polling will tell us much - we just need to stick it out here, work the ground game hard and keep our fingers crossed on election day.

Posted at 01:44 AM in Ohio | Comments (28) | Technorati

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Veep Debate Open Thread

I'm actually watching this one, and so far, Cheney looks very snitty and angry. And he just can't keep his mouth from making that ugly curl in one corner. I think Edwards looks and sounds good. What do you think?

UPDATE: Well, we know one thing for sure: Cheney lied, pure and simple. He said he had never met John Edwards before, but he sure had. If he's going to lie about something like this, what else is he willing to lie about?

Personally, I thought Edwards acquitted himself pretty well. It wasn't the slam-dunk I was hoping for, but he seemed relaxed and pretty confident the whole time. (And I love that smile of his.) Cheney seemed angry, and by the end, tired and bored. But a lot of his answers were better than I expected. He actually managed to sound gracious after Edwards mentioned Cheney's daughter. And he was fairly adroit when he turned Edwards' silly "What was the question again?" stunt back on him; I was pretty shocked that Edwards didn't have a canned answer to the experience question, considering Dubya himself only served six years before becoming President.

Ultimately, I think a draw is a win for us, because Bushco needed to turn the tide here. I don't see Bush outright beating Kerry in any of the remaining two debates, so at worst, we're facing a 1-0-3 record. Perhaps Bush will do well in the town hall format, but as I recall from years past, people ask pretty tough questions. I remember one questioner back in 1992 who asked Bill Clinton, pretty much point-blank, how the recession had affected him. That's not an easy question for any politician, even the Big Dog, to answer - and Clinton was The Master. John Kerry is no Bill Clinton, but George Bush shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence.

Posted at 09:25 PM in General | Comments (51) | Technorati

Spinning the Debates

The main reason we won last week's debate is because John Forbes Kerry kicked George Bush's petulant ass. But an aggressive media outreach effort (for once!) by the DNC also helped the post-game spin. Ordinary folks like ourselves fanned out online and off, sending letters to the editor, making phone calls, e-mailing friends and voting in online polls, all in support of Kerry.

Let's be sure we do as good a job once again tonight. I think John Edwards has amazing skills from his not-so-long-ago days as a courtroom litigator, but Dick Cheney is obviously a lot smarter than Bush. However, Cheney is equally ideologically blinkered, and if he sticks to a one-trick-pony attack mode against Edwards (like Bush did against Kerry: "flip-flopper" - only here, it would be "inexperienced"), he's gonna get his ass handed to him. Substantively, we have every reason to expect we'll do quite well tonight.

But once again, we have to do well in the post-game: Sign up for the DNC's media response team if you haven't already. You'll receive an e-mail within minutes of the end of the debate outlining ways you can help us win the battle of the spin.

Posted at 01:39 PM in General | Comments (1) | Technorati

Who Will Take Nevada?

Nevada's an interesting state: It's incredibly fast-growing (the oft-repeated story is that phonebooks are published twice a year in Las Vegas), and two of its fastest-growing groups are Dem leaners: ex-Californians and Hispanics (who may well overlap a bit). We lost it by a little over 20,000 votes last time, or 2.5% - while Nader bagged 15K. After New Mexico, it's safe to say that it'll be the next Southwestern state most likely to emerge as Dem (ahead of CO and AZ).

And yet we haven't had any real leads in any polls there this entire season, except for a couple of barely measurable Zogby Interactives. Perhaps we're a little too early on NV - maybe we need to wait another cycle. But at the same time, Bush has seldom been at or above 50% in any poll - except for SUSA, which has a new one out today, conducted after the debate (likely voters, mid-September in parens):

Kerry: 46 (47)
Bush: 50 (51)
Other/Undecided: 4 (2)
(MoE: ��4%)

SUSA usually has very low undecideds - my only guess is that it might be easier to push a button on your phone that equals "vote for Bush" or "vote for Kerry" than it is to tell a real live person. (The universal psychological urge to be consistent is put at less risk when an automated machine is recording your preferences.) But that's just a guess.

If SUSA is right about the low number of undecideds (and let's not forget, the airwaves have been saturated here), then perhaps NV is out of reach for us, this time. Of course, as I mentioned, other polls describe the race differently, with Bush below that magical 50-point mark. But now that SUSA has shown Bush this high twice in a row, especially after his debate debacle, I'm not so sanguine.

All that said, we obviously don't need NV to win. I think we are most likely to win with a "bag a big one" strategy - either FL or OH. A path to victory which involves scraping together a bunch of small states doesn't seem as probable to me.

Posted at 01:23 AM in Nevada | Comments (15) | Technorati

Monday, October 04, 2004

How I Learned to Love Undecideds

Mark Blumenthal, a veteran Democratic pollster and author of the not-so-myterious "Mystery Pollster" blog, offers loads more evidence to support Guy Molyneux's research. As Chris points out in the comments on Blumenthal's thread, though, there tend to be very few undecideds by election day, so the boost is not all that tremendous - maybe two points.

Posted at 04:42 PM in General | Comments (3) | Technorati

So We're Leaving Virginia

According to the Washington Post, Team Kerry is sending its top VA campaign staff to other, hotter battlegrounds. I can't blame them - this move makes sense. I've always been bullish on Virginia, but for the longer term. People like Maura Keany and her group, Democracy for Virginia, are laying the groundwork to, as she puts it, Turn Virginia Blue. This state will be ours one day, in the foreseeable future.

I still think we're better off spending money in VA than in LA, though a stronger Dem presence in Louisiana may help us with the Senate race there. (There aren't any major statewide races in VA this year.) But in any case, I'm glad we played some offense and made a serious push into Virginia this year.

(Via Race 2004.)

UPDATE: Hoya90 - who agrees with this move - has some thoughts on what Democrats in Virginia ought to do.

Posted at 03:57 PM in Virginia | Comments (13) | Technorati

General Election Cattle Call, October 4

(Previous Results in Parenthesis)

National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry: 49.5 (48.57)
Bush: 48.5 (49.43)
Status: Toss-up
Polls Included: Economist, Rasmussen and Zogby

Electoral Vote Projection
Kerry: 274, 187 (243, 171)
Bush: 264, 209 (295, 190)
States Changing Party Hands from 2000: NH and OH to Kerry; WI to Bush
States Projected Under Three Points: FL, NV and WI for Bush (42, with IA, NH and OH moving to Kerry and WI moving under three points); IA, NH and OH for Kerry (31, with MN moving over three points)

I have had enough of tracking down poll internals. Finding all of the recent Party ID internals had become such a chore, that I came to dread making my projections. So instead of re-weighting by Party ID, I am simply going to limit the dataset to polling firms that share my polling philosophy. Re-weighting by Party ID was always a dubious task anyway, as I explained here. This is not because Party ID is not a demographic (I believe it is), but because Party ID is poorly measured by most poll internals.

So, what polls do I agree with? It is an eclectic group. Among tracking polls, I think Zogby and Rasmussen have things about right. Among weekly polls, I like the Economist. Among less regular polls, I like Harris and the George Washington University Battleground poll. If the National Annenberg Election survey ever produces a trial heat, I will incorporate that as well. I will use the most recent trial heat from any of these sources, as long as the majority of that trial heat was conducted within the past week (possibly NBC and AP as well, but I am still looking into those methodologies). Zogby, Rasmussen and the Economist will always be included.

This will make updating my projections much simpler. I will now be able to produce a new projection every day from now until November 2nd. I am also now allocating undecideds 80-20 in favor of Kerry, and taking leaners to filter out the soft undecideds.. (rationale). Enjoy!

Posted at 03:45 PM in General Election Cattle Call | Comments (25) | Technorati

Sunday, October 03, 2004

New Jersey, Revisited

Research 2000 offers the first state poll conducted entirely after the first debate. Kerry maintains a wide lead in New Jersey (likely voters, mid-August in parens):

Kerry: 50 (52)
Bush: 42 (41)
Other/Undecided: 8 (7)
(MoE: ��4%)

The undecided figure includes two points for Nader. To be sure, R2K has always shown Kerry with wide leads in NJ, and I don't know a thing about their likely voter models. But let's not kid ourselves: As the Prospect article I linked just below makes clear, Bush would have to be polling above 50% in NJ in order to seriously threaten us here, and that's just not the case, no matter which poll you look at. The highest he's ever gotten was a lone SUSA poll that had him at 49%.

I think I'm not going to write anything further about New Jersey this election cycle, unless something totally wild happens, like the Democratic governor resigns in disgrace over a salacious extra-marital affair. Oh, wait. That did happen, and the Republicans still can't make serious headway here. Yeah, New Jersey's a safe bet.

Posted at 05:32 PM in Safe States | Comments (9) | Technorati

Undecideds Break for the Challenger

We all know it's true, but Guy Molyneux, a Democratic pollster, delves into the details of what exactly this means over at the Prospect. I strongly advise everyone to read this article. Molyneux encourages political reporters - and by extension, I imagine, bloggers as well - to focus not on the spread in horserace matchups but rather the "50 percent line."

More specifically, in the four incumbent re-election campaigns in the last quarter century, the president came in, on average, half a point below his final poll results. Challengers, however, averaged a four-point gain. So, therefore, if George Bush is at 49%, and if John Kerry is within reasonable striking distance come Nov. 1, we're going to have a photo finish. If Bush is below 49%, he's almost certainly melba toast.

Posted at 02:46 AM in General | Comments (2) | Technorati

Saturday, October 02, 2004

Newsweek National Poll Puts Kerry in the Lead

I don't usually do national polls here, but I can't resist this one from Newsweek (registered voters, 9/9-10 and 9/2-3 in parens):

Kerry: 49 (45) (43)
Bush: 46 (50) (54)
Undecided: 5 (5) (3)
(MoE: ��4%)

I'm showing two trendlines because both are fairly recent and because the 9/2-3 numbers were taken right after the Republican convention, when Bush had a monstrous and (to some) a seemingly insurmountable 11-point lead. Needless to say, that lead is no more.

In a month, this poll has swung an impressive fourteen points. That's not to say it can't swing back again, but this kind of gyration must have Karl Rove's triumphalist stomach in knots. I don't see Bush as having much ability to push back in the other direction, because unless Kerry fumbles badly, the debates are going to be win-win-win for our side. And I'm also expecting John Edwards to bring all of his considerable skills as a courtroom litigator when he faces Dick Cheney - Johnn Sunshine will do an infinitely better job than the sorry Joe Lieberman did four years ago.

And check out the lovely internals on the debate. Sixty-one percent said Kerry was the clear winner, while only 19% picked Bush. When your numbers on a question like this fall below your baseline - typically, the one-third or so of voters who will almost always vote GOP or Dem - you know you've fucked up big-time. I would also point out that a rather large segment of registered voters - 74% - watched at least part of the debates, so this is going to have a broad effect.

You can follow the link to see the percentages for a whole host of other questions. One issue which really stands out for me is the draft: 38% of voters think that a second Bush administration would re-instate the draft, while just 18% think Kerry would. We need to push this issue, because I think it can motivate hard-to-reach younger voters and, of course, their parents.

UPDATE: Full internals are here, including weighting.

Posted at 08:36 PM in General | Comments (29) | Technorati

Weekend Open Thread

Sorry for the lack of posts yesterday - I had two callbacks in one day, and then I schlepped back to DC, so I couldn't even check e-mail for an entire day. (Man, I can't recall the last time that happened.) Anyhow, enjoy this new weekend open thread until I or another poster thinks of something clever to write.

P.S. We had over 100,000 visitors last month. Cool.

Posted at 02:08 PM in General | Comments (8) | Technorati