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Wednesday, October 06, 2004
It's Close in Ohio
Posted by DavidNYCSo the headline states the obvious, but what more is there to say? SUSA has a new Ohio poll out, which shows our boy with the narrowest of leads (likely voters, early September in parens):
Kerry: 49 (47)
Bush: 48 (50)
Other/Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ��3.6%)
The poll was conducted after the first presidential debate, but it was a weekend poll, so apply whatever caveats you feel are appropriate. Yeah, this lead is what they like to call "statistically insignificant," but what I think is a bit more legit is the four point swing from B+3 to K+1.
I like SUSA - I think they are fairly reliable, and I also love the PDFs they release for each poll. I only wish they'd ask more questions, particularly about favorability. They do assert in their headline that this result is due to the debate, which is nice to hear. Not that you needed me to tell you this, but the race in this state is certain to come down to the wire. I don't think future polling will tell us much - we just need to stick it out here, work the ground game hard and keep our fingers crossed on election day.
Posted at 01:44 AM in Ohio | Technorati
Comments
Good news is starting in the polling:
IA (10/4 University of MN poll):
Kerry 48%
Bush 47%
NM (10/4 Research and Polling)
Kerry 46%
Bush 43%
WA (Survey USA 10/2-10/4)
Kerry 54%
Bush 43%
MO getting closer:
MO (Survey USA 10/2-10/4)
Kerry 47%
Bush 49%
Bad news. FL isn't getting closer:
FL (Survey USA 10/1-10/3)
Kerry 46%
Bush 51%
but a win in OH means Kerry will just have to win all the Gore but WI to win the election.
Posted by: DFuller at October 6, 2004 08:51 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
These polls are reassuring (when will Zogby's come out?), but DFuller's comment that if Kerry wins OH and holds all the Gore but WI is worrisome. If Kerry wins 270-268, how hard would it be for the Repugs to buy an elector and put it in the House? We need 271 or 272 to be safe.
Posted by: science at October 6, 2004 08:58 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Doesn't that same poll showing Kerry with a small lead in OH also show Bush now leading in PA? I still think OH will vote for Bush and PA will vote for Kerry in November. If Kerry could win both OH and PA, I think he'd win--and he wouldn't even need FL--which I think he has a very realistic shot at. OH, though? I'm still not convinced, though an upset is certainly a possibility.
Posted by: Pepe at October 6, 2004 08:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Survey USA hasn't done a poll in PA since the debates. Their last PA poll was 9/7 - 9/10 and had Kerry up by two points. Rasmussen has Bush up one point in PA.
Posted by: DFuller at October 6, 2004 09:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Thanks--I knew I saw a PA poll somewhere this morning with Bush leading, but couldn't remember which one.
My gut tells me this race will be a nail-biter in many states, but I have a feeling that most of those states will wind up going primarily for one candidate or the other. It could be a "blow out" either way, but it will be deceptively so, because of the Electoral College winner take all.
Posted by: Pepe at October 6, 2004 09:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, I agree. I don't expect a scenario like last time where some close states broke slightly for Gore while others broke slightly for Bush. This time, I suspect the winner will take most of the close states, meaning the popular vote is likely to be much closer than the electoral vote, where I believe the winner will get more than 300 EVs. Hopefully, Kerry comes out on the winning end of this dynamic
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 10:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Quinnipiac has NJ close again at 3%. Q is a pretty good pollster overall. Still, overall, Kerry definitely seems up by 5-6 points, and my guess is that he wins in the high single digits.
Posted by: erg at October 6, 2004 10:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I hate SUSA...in my experience, they lean far too much to the right. They are the very pollster that suddenly came up with Republican leads in many key Senate races (FL, CO, SD, and others) when everyone else showed Democrats leading.
Posted by: Nathaniel at October 6, 2004 10:59 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
science, After the 2000 debacle, I don't see something like an EV vote grab happening. If Kerry gets 270 EVs he'll be President. The Republicans have used up their dirty tricks bag in 2000. They couldn't pull off such a high profile dirty trick.
This poll showing Kerry slightly ahead in OH is encouraging. The Democratic registration and get out the vote effort might be enough to put Kerry over the top in OH, just barely, but a win would be a win.
PA - Kerry will win PA. PA has a stronger Democratic tradition than OH. Governor Rendell will deliver PA to Kerry. It won't be nearly as close as OH. Kerry wins PA by 5%.
That would be the election right there!
FL - Would be sweet for Kerry to win. I really think a lot of things are going Kerry's way in Florida. Cuban dissatisfaction with Bush. No voter purge rolls. Better demographics, etc.
But, the recent polls tell a different tale. Kerry is kind of being put at a disadvantage by the hurricanes. Bush is probably picking up support because he's all over the news in FL with hurricane relief, etc. Kerry can't campaign in certain areas because it would make it look like he's grandstanding during the hurricane relief efforts. Bush is letting the money flow to Florida big time, to buy votes in the aftermath of the hurricanes. Such is life.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 11:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Re Science 'If Kerry wins 270-268, how hard would it be for the Repugs to buy an elector and put it in the House? We need 271 or 272 to be safe.'
Also re any close EV scenario, there is the Colorado initiaive, which sounds like an extra coupla votes, but if Kerry takes CO it loses a few of these. AFter the court challenges etc.
Posted by: allen stewart at October 6, 2004 11:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
erg, Quinnipac is a fair pollster. There's no bias in their surveys. Jersey will be closer than expected. Kerry's still going to win by 5% or more. Jersey is a Democratic state, and the Democratic machine will get the vote out on election day. A win is a win, put NJ in the Kerry column.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 11:05 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
What are the odds of passage for the Colorado electoral vote splitting?
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 11:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
rock, I'm not quite so sure about Quinnipiac. From what I heard, they showed Bush leading Gore by 19 in Pennsylvania a few days before the election. We all know how that turned out.
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 11:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark,
From what I've read recently, the Colorado EV splitting proposal is now leading 60% to 40%. Not sure why it would pass in a state that is conservative and would hurt the President's chances of being reelected.
From Race2004.net
If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 273 for Kerry, 265 for Bush. This will tip the presidential election to Kerry. The legality of the initiative (and winner of the election) will almost certainly be decided by the United States Supreme Court.
Current polling data suggests the initiative is likely to pass.
http://www.race2004.net/index.html
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 11:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
If Kerry wins OH, I think he will also carry MI, PA and NH. IA and WI are another story. As of today, I do not think Kerry would win WI. IA would be razor thin just like 2000.
Here is my analysis as of today:
Strong Kerry (154): CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA
Weak Kerry (36): ME, MD, NJ, OR
Barely Kerry (57): MN, MI, NM, NH, PA
Even (37): WI, IA, OH
Barely Bush (32): NV, FL
Weak Bush (20): AR, CO, WV
Strong Bush (202): AZ, VA, AL, AK, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SD, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY
Posted by: DFuller at October 6, 2004 11:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I also heard that the CO initiative was up 60% to 40%. I sure hope it doesn't pass if the election comes down to CO--it would be very messy and wind up in the Supreme Court, to be sure.
That said, I don't expect the election to be that close in terms of red states/blue states. It will be close within many individual swing states, but as I stated earlier, I really think most of the swing states will wind up (by small margins) in the blue or red column come Election Day. The winner may barely win (or even lose) the popular vote, yet lose by 100 or more EVs.
Posted by: Pepe at October 6, 2004 11:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My last post is ambiguous. What I meant to write is I feel that the winner will likely take most of them, albeit by small margins in nearly every case.
Posted by: Pepe at October 6, 2004 11:42 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
In 2000, most of the states that were decided by razor thin margins went to Gore. The exceptions were FL and NH.
States that Gore won by > 3%:
OR, NM, IA, WI, MN
State that Bush won by > 3%:
FL, NH
Posted by: DFuller at October 6, 2004 11:53 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, a pretty good assessment, although I suspect we'll be in for a few surprises come election night. I still can't imagine a scenario where Bush wins Iowa in 2004, and continue to believe Kerry will win there by a reasonable margin. I also believe Maryland will go Kerry by double digits, and New Jersey by close to double digits. I think Michigan should be "weak Kerry" instead of "barely Kerry." I'm a little nervous about that electoral vote from upstate Maine.
You have a few too many "strong Bush" states from my perspective. Arizona will be closer than expected due to the Hispanic vote. The demographics of Missouri in 2004 make a Kerry win unlikely, but I also don't forecast a "strong Bush" scenario. If Bush wins by 5 or 6 points, even after Kerry's foolish premature surrender, he'll be lucky. Virginia and North Carolina also seem likely to fit somewhere between "weak Bush" and "strong Bush." Don't mean to be nitpicky, but I do think election night will hold some surprises because I anticipate turnout will be substantially better than the "likely voter" model of most polls is currently suggesting.
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 12:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, That seems like a good assement or snap shot of where the Presidential race stands right now. Better than most analysis.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 12:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MI is barely Kerry because the latest Rasmussen poll has Bush and Kerry tied.
MD has very few polls. The latest Rasmussen shows Kerry up by 3 points and Survey USA has them tied. I am not a very big fan of Survey USA polls.
AZ is a tough state to categorize. Excluding Zogby, the polls give Bush a pretty comfortable lead. The only problem with the polls is I am suspect of Mason-Dixon and Survey USA as being biased towards the Radical Right.
MO will probably leave the strong Bush category soon. Survey USA's latest poll has Bush up only two points there. He had been up around 6 - 8 points pre-debate.
I use some judgment as well as the polls. I basically ignore any poll from Mason-Dixon or Strategic Vision. They are too partisan. I give little credence to Zogby, Mason-Dixon, or Survey USA. I would ignore Zogby's poll for being too far left, but Zogby has been above average in accuracy in the past.
Posted by: DFuller at October 6, 2004 12:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Check out the new ARG polls on RCP website. Kerry leads by two in Florida and is tied in New Hampshire. Things have been going badly for us in New Hampshire in the last couple weeks, but a tie in the polls should equate to a win for the challenger against an unpopular incumbent...hopefully.
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 12:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, Most states will vote in the way they traditionally vote. AZ will wind up in the R column, MI in the D column. It takes serious economic problems or a 3rd party like Perot to upset the applecart, or just decades long realignment, like what has been going on in the Southern U.S. as it's gone from D to R over the past 40 years.
Just keep in mind, in states that are very close, the most likely outcome is that the party that traditionally wins, will win by at least a small margin.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I think AZ may have been closer than expected in 2000 because McCain Republicans were ticked off at Gore last time. This time, they've come home, so AZ drops off the list.
Re Survey USA -- their web site claims they had a good accuracy record, showing lots of previous elections they predicted successfully. I would not dismiss them as a bad pollster out of hand.
Posted by: erg at October 6, 2004 12:59 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
New ARG poll in OH. Kerry up 1 point.
10/4-6 (9/17-20)
Kerry 48%(46%) Bush 47(48%)
Posted by: DFuller at October 7, 2004 10:18 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
erg, Do you mean AZ Repubs were ticked at Bush?
There is a certain power of incumbency that's hard for a challegner to overcome. I know friends who are moderates, who are more comfortable voting for a known commodity like Bush, than taking a chance on a new President. I think they're nuts. Bush is about the worst President we've had in decades. He's done long term damage to our country, and he doesn't give a rats ass about anyone but the wealthy elites. But, people are still uncomfortable with change, we are conservative beings by nature, change is hard to accept. So, despite all Bush's skelletons and lies, there are swing voters who would rather stay the coarse, even if we're sailing off a cliff.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 7, 2004 10:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Rock_NJ -- yes, thats what I meant -- AZ repubs were ticked at Bush in 2000, so the margin of victory was smaller than expected.
Meanwhile, good news out of NJ -- FDU poll shows 8 point Kerry lead.
Posted by: erg at October 7, 2004 01:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
That is good news, FDU has had a Republican bias to their polling. Kerry wins NJ.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 7, 2004 03:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment