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Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Missouri Still in Play?
Posted by DavidNYCWell, well, well - whaddya know? After a slew of polls showing Bush over 50% in Missouri, SUSA pegs him at 49% (likely voters, early September in parens):
Kerry: 47 (46)
Bush: 49 (48)
Other/undecided: 4 (5)
(MoE: ��3.8%)
It's also a one-point fight in the Governor's race, though we are getting smoked in the Senate campaign.
Anyhow, I swear I read somewhere that even though the Kerry campaign isn't spending any more money in MO, the 527s have stepped in big-time. I thought I had read it around a week or two ago in the New York Times, but I have been utterly unable to retrieve it. If you've seen any similar stories anywhere else, kindly post a link.
I think it's important to keep the other side sweating in Missouri so that they can't pull out their resources and funnel them to Florida or Ohio. There are also several important House races in the mix, so staying strong on the ground is essential.
At this point, I'd predict that MO will likely be a very narrow loss for us. However, if Kerry can stay strong in the last two debates and the media narrative is "Wow! This race is close!" rather than, "Kerry is still struggling," then I think Missouri is a definite possibility for us.
Posted at 02:25 PM in Missouri | Technorati
Comments
I haven't seen any stories, but personally I was phonebanking for ACT in Missouri last weekend.
Posted by: tyronen at October 6, 2004 02:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The demographics of Missouri make it seem like a tough place for a Democrat to win these days, much like most of the "border states" such as neighboring Kentucky which are more rooted in Southern culture than northern, yet have a fraction as many blacks as the Deep South. In 1988, Michael Dukakis only lost Missouri by about four points. Twelve years later, Gore lost it by the same amount, but the internals were entirely different. Dukakis scored some wins in the small cities and rural areas in light of the farm crisis, but didn't perform particularly well in the KC and STL suburbs. Al Gore did about as well as could be expected in metropolitan Kansas City and St. Louis, but got slaughtered everywhere in between. If Kerry were to win Missouri, he would have to improve his numbers in the urban/suburban counties while improving his collective margins in cities like Columbia and St. Joseph which were soft for Gore, and rural counties where Gore was shellacked. Not an easy task at all. I've always felt Kerry had a better chance in Arkansas than Missouri, but feel he should have a continued presence in both, keeping in mind that the can't afford to write off all of the border states and still win elections.
Pennsylvania is frequently described as Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. Missouri could just as easily be described as Kansas City and St. Louis with Alabama in between. The odds are long that Kerry will win here, but I still think it's worth the time for both Kerry and the Democratic Party. Hopefully it's not too late for the campaign to follow through with some ads given the new favorable polling data.
Posted by: Mark at October 6, 2004 03:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PA is the buckle in the bible belt. Rural PA might as well be in the deep south, because culturally that's where they are, minus some of the racism that lingers in the Deep South.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 05:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Interestingly enough, there seems to be a growing Hispanic population in parts of small town PA. I was visiting Gettysburg over the 4th of July and stayed in York, the county seat in York County. There seemed to be a fair number of Hispanics.
I also saw one bumper sticker that said "Welcome
To America -- Now Speak English or Leave". [ The only one I saw though, to be fair to York].
Posted by: erg at October 6, 2004 05:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Now Rock, there is plenty of racism up North, too. Some of the most racist cities I've ever been to are Chicago, Boston and Cincinnati. They could learn something from cities like Charlotte and Atlanta. Indeed, those two Southern cities (and many others here in the South) have probably made more progress in this area than the likes of Chicago, Boston, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit--to name but a few.
Posted by: pepe at October 6, 2004 05:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I don't know about that. I'm not going to deny that there is still some under the surface racism in the north as well, especially in a city like Cincinati that has a really deep conservative tradition. But, really, it's the deep South, deeper than North Carolina where racism persists even today. Organized hate groups are much more powerful in the deep South than anywhere else in the country. Sure, racism lingers in most quarters of the country, but the only place I know that it's still sometimes practiced out in the open is the deep South. When you hear stories about Dennys not serving African Americans, including the President's security detail, those stories come out of the deep South. Bottom line, racism is more less a part of life, but there are parts of the country where it is practiced openly. I know it's surprising that racism persists in cities like Boston, where the abolishist and civil rights movements obtained much of their momentum. But, the North never came close to institutionalizing racism the way the South did. What we're seeing is the lingering effects of that institutionalization.
Re: Hispanics in PA. It's just a matter of going where the jobs are. If they're in small town PA, that's where you'll find the workers.
Posted by: Rock_nj at October 6, 2004 06:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The past decade has seen many fortue 500 companies leave or merge with the Headquarters moving out of state. We lost even more with American Airlines pulling out of St L and KC. I do not think Missouri is the micro version of the USA like we once were. Liberal democrats running statewide in this state have as much of a chance as snow in Panama. If you want this state go no farther left than moderate-left.
Posted by: kyle at October 6, 2004 11:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Regarding Missouri, I said the same thing yesterday after seeing this poll...It's in play!
As far as PA is concerned, not only am I in the battleground state, I'm on the front lines (montgomery county, 1 of 3 being the most targeted)
Pretty astounding, but kerry, W, and Edwards have been within 10 miles of me at least twice in the past 2 months.
I'll say this though.
Since the first debate, I have seen 1-2 more kerry signs in front of HOUSES every day. If that's any kind of measure of local identification, just on my way to pick up my daughter in day care, I now see 12 kerry signs and 4 bush signs.
Posted by: Ed at October 7, 2004 07:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment