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Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCDiscuss the latest polling & other developments here. I'll try to put one of these up every day from now until election day. Tonight, I'm doing election protection training over at American University's law school, courtesy of Impact 2004.
P.S. It looks like veteran pollster Mark Blumenthal agrees with my take on Ohio: Bush is in trouble.
Posted at 12:22 PM in General | Technorati
Comments
talk about confusing polling,harris just came out with a poll of lv showing bush has either a 2 point lead or 8 point depending on how you
define lv. go to realclearpolitics to see
the results. they also said kerry may have a
7 point lead in the swing states, so it just seems like anything can happen in this election
at first glance this looks very bad but the swing
state theory looks good.
Posted by: JEREMY at October 20, 2004 12:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Finally there is a new poll out in New Mexico. It is as clear as mud of course.
ARG Oct 18 (Sept 16)
Kerry 48 (49)
Bush 46 (44)
Ralph 1 (1)
Undecided 5 (5)
MOE 4%
Posted by: DFuller at October 20, 2004 01:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Bush is up 2 points in: "I will vote in 20004."
He is up 8 points in: "I voted in 2000 if I was old enough and I will vote in 2004.���
Because of what happened in FL in 2000 and the closeness of this election, there are a lot of voters who didn���t vote in 2000 that will vote in 2004.
Posted by: DFuller at October 20, 2004 03:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Is it just me, or are things looking up in surprising places?
Race 2004 says:
NV, NM, CO, TN, and AR are dead heats.
AZ, NC, VA, WV seem to be within striking range if GOTV efforts are good enough.
www.electoral-vote.com paints a similar picture.
slate.com (by the MSN people) has some nice things to say, too.
I know that people on this site have talked about some of these states recently, but I don't think it has ever been that positive.
Despite the poor publicity surrounding recent polls, this appears to be turning into a good week for Kerry...
Posted by: Dan Hogan at October 20, 2004 04:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
The weird thing is that at this late point in time this election remains a coin toss. That said, I still believe the winner will win by at least 100 EVs, because he will win the bulk of the swing states by very close margins. That would be a good thing, because I seriously question what would happen if we have another disputed election. I don't think the nation can afford that, quite frankly. I am feeling more optimistic regarding Kerry's chances. Hell, look at the Boston Red Sox. If they beat the Yankees tonight, what Kerry has to do will be a breeze in comparison.
Go Red Sox!!!!!
Posted by: pepe at October 20, 2004 05:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Coupla comments. First, on the Sox thing, give it up. They are going to lose to somebody, it never fails, but will happen in the most painful way possible.
On the polls: yep, I think Kerry has an advantage in Ohio, but the GOTV and GOP counterpart are big variables here.
An interesting theory: Some people have been speculating that gambling odds is a better predictor of close election outcomes than polls. The most recent election outcome in Australia is an example, where the odds were significantly more accurate than the polls down under. The fundamental thesis is when people bet a significant amount of their own money, they tend to be *really* well informed, and the odds fluctuate very close to real time, as opposed to a delay as you find in voter polls. But there are problems with the "economic strategy" too, one being that gamblers are famous for putting their money where their heart is, and secondly, the population that tends to do this tends to vote more Republican. Finally, there is the issue of who gets more votes, and who wins the electoral college, and we all know they are not exactly the same. It would be interesting to see gambling odds on OH, NM, CO, FL etc., as opposed to the overall national vote or outcome betting odds. Just a thought for discussion.
Posted by: MarkOlsen at October 20, 2004 05:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh, Mark, I completely agree with you that many people here and elsewhere would be more honest with themselves if they had to put a significant amount of their own hard-earned money down on the outcome of some of these swing states. It's much easier to cherry pick the polls, and it makes people feel better, too, to pick the ones that boost their candidate's chances. You can cherry pick without risk--unlike if you had to put, say $1000 down at the gambling table to back it up.
Posted by: pepe at October 20, 2004 05:48 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, the prospect of a 100-point Electoral Vote gap is certainly still possible and I have always agreed with you that one of these two will get a burst of momentum going into Election Day. I have already stated my doomsday scenario that the media hysteria about another post-election fiasco could bring out voters to support the guy who they think will be the winner....and the latest Pew Research poll shows the public believes it will be Bush by a nearly 2-1 margin. On the other hand, there's no shortage of bad news driving the right track/wrong track numbers against the incumbent. Couple that with a ferocious Democratic turnout and Kerry could get really get some steam. You do realize, however, that a 100-vote EV margin would require Bush to win states like Pennsylvania and Minnesota, or for Kerry to win places like Colorado and Arkansas, right? I'm not quite convinced that a 100-point spread is possible, but certainly 50-75 points is reasonable.
Another brainstorm...I wonder if the Boston-New York rivalry extends beyond baseball. Being far removed from that part of the country, I have to ask. With the Red Sox-Yankees slugfest underway, do you think it's possible that softer New York (and most importantly New Jersey) Democrats would vote against Kerry just to spite Boston? Unlikely, but crazier things have happened. After all, who would think a state like Louisiana would vote for George Bush because of bitterness towards Yankees stemming from 150 years ago?
Posted by: Mark at October 20, 2004 06:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Interesting theory about the baseball vote-switching. But I'm more worried about the Oct. 31 game between the Redskins and the Packers. As you probably know, history shows that the winner of that game somehow determines the outcome of the election. Packers win, the challenger wins; Deadskins win, incumbent wins. And since the Skins are just as lousy with Joe Gibbs as they were with Spurrier, they are probably going to lose. It sucks having a losing team as home team. At least the Sox get to the playoffs.
Posted by: Dale at October 20, 2004 06:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
No, I don't think that the Yankees-Redsox game will impact the way voters vote--at least not enough voters to matter. Now won't it be interesting if somehow the Sox win tonight, and Houston defeats St. Louis? Then we'd have a Boston vs. Houston World Series! Talk about weird coincidences.
There could be a lot of surprises on Election Day that none of us can anticipate. This is the first post-9/11 presidential election, and it just might break a lot of the usual expectations. Honestly, I'm not paying any attention to the polls. We're too near the end, and the polls are all over the place. If anything, the polls are causing a great deal of distortion. The best way to tell the swing states is to pay attention to where the candidates are campaigning. Of late, seven states seem to be getting most of the attention: IA, MN, WI, OH, FL, NJ, and PA. And crazy is this may sound, I could see Kerry or Bush taking 5 or even 6 of those 7. I don't think we can rely on previous elections to tell us what to expect in a post-9/11 world.
Posted by: pepe at October 20, 2004 07:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Speaking of voter attitudes. Does anyone else think that Bush's recent Massachussetts-bashing will help Kerry in sister states NH and ME?
Or am I just clutching at straws?
Posted by: anon at October 21, 2004 01:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A 100 point EV difference certainly is not out of the question, in either direction. Taking FL, OH, WI and IA as the main swing states, which will probably be taken by whoever wins, that's already 84 EV difference for Kerry or 44 for Bush. Kerry would just need 8 EVs more, and there are enough states where he could pick those up - VA, MO, NC, CO, or any 2 from AK, WV, NV and the CO amendment. And for Bush there are plenty of chances to pick up those extra 28 too, for example NH+ME+PA or MI+PA or MI+MN+ME2.
Looking at my own breakdowns of the polls, the needed swing from the current polling situation would be 4% for either candidate (giving Bush Bush96+WI+IA+NH+MN+ME and Kerry Gore96+OH+FL+AK+VA+WV).
Another issue I have been thinking of is: "How to quickly see from the election day results who is ahead?" The decisive states will apparently be Ohio and Florida, but unless we are indeed seeing a difference over 100 EV, those will remain 'too close to call' rather long.
An earlier estimate will be probably given by the ME-VA test: The first to get ME (Kerry) or VA (Bush) is ahead, same time means a close race. If you don't want to rely on just a single state, PA can be thrown in for Kerry and WV for Bush.
Posted by: Andre at October 21, 2004 08:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Little correction... I wrote:
"Looking at my own breakdowns of the polls, the needed swing from the current polling situation would be 4% for either candidate (giving Bush Bush96+WI+IA+NH+MN+ME and Kerry Gore96+OH+FL+AK+VA+WV)."
This should of course be Bush96+WI+IA+MN+ME for Bush and Gore96+NH+OH+FL+AK+VA+WV for Kerry. NH is starting to look so blue on this year's electoral map that I forgot that it was not so 4 years ago...
Posted by: Andre at October 21, 2004 08:41 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Interesting post, Andre. If VA goes for Kerry or PA goes for Bush, we'll know right away that this election is going to be anything but predictable. Regarding PA and VA: my assumption would be, if Bush wins PA he'll win in a landslide. If Kerry wins VA, he will win in a landslide. I'm still convinced the winner will win by a sizeable margin in the Electoral College.
Posted by: Pepe at October 21, 2004 08:44 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Regarding the possibility of a 100 EV difference, here are the results of percentage difference and EV difference for the past years. Years before 1912 have been disregarded because the House (and thus the college) was much smaller, while 1912, 1924, 1948, 1968 and 1992 have been disregarded because there was a third important candidate (1980 and 1996 have been included because the third candidates were less influential than in the above 5 years).
1960 00.2% 097
2000 00.5% 004 for the other candidate
1976 02.1% 058
1916 03.2% 023
1944 07.5% 333
1988 07.8% 314
1996 08.5% 220
1980 09.7% 440
1940 10.0% 367
1952 10.6% 353
1956 15.4% 383
1928 17.3% 357
1932 17.9% 413
1984 18.3% 512
1964 22.6% 434
1972 23.2% 504
1936 24.2% 515
1920 26.3% 277
Interestingly, there is a large gap here between the first 4 elections with under 5% popular vote difference and under 100 electoral vote difference, and the rest with over 200 EV difference. Of the skipped years, 1912, 1924 and 1992 all fall in the second group. 1948 (4.4% vote difference between first and second candidate, 114 EV difference between first and second candidate, 75 EV difference between first and other candidates) and 1968 (0.6%, 110 EV, 64 EV) are similar to the first.
Posted by: Andre at October 21, 2004 09:16 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
This is a further sign that George Bush's most loyal supporters have given up on him.
http://www.bushrelativesforkerry.com/
It would be funny if it weren't so true. At least I think it's true.
Posted by: Dale at October 21, 2004 09:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
A strange poll in MI from Mitchell Research:
Bush 46.9%, Kerry 42.7%.
I have thought of MI as pretty much being in the bag when Strategic Vision has Kerry up 8 point. Is MI truly going to be close or is the Mitchell Research poll just a bad poll?
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 10:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
DFuller, the poll would seem to be an outlier. It nonetheless has my heart sagging at the moment. I'm gonna be in permanent hyperventilation mode between now and November 3.
Posted by: Mark at October 21, 2004 10:10 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
More good news for Kerry:
Marist poll in battleground states:
Kerry 50%, Bush 43%
17 states - Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia.
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 10:26 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I want to change the subject a bit and talk about voter fraud. I have been volunteering to GOTV in No. Florida and have witnessed two incidents of voter fraud.
The first was on Oct. 4th (the deadline for voter registration). A woman called into the Victory 2004 campaign for Kerry and Edwards. She was upset and complained that Republicans were registering students at FAMU as Republicans. Since the students weren't completely filling out their forms, the Republican volunteers checked Republican. I called the office of elections to report this and they reassured me that the students will still be able to vote even though the forms were considered tampered with (they were considered valid registrations).
The second occurred while I was out canvassing neighborhoods for another GOTV effort. These neighborhoods are filled with infrequent and new or recent registrants. One young lady told me she was waiting for her absentee ballot to arrive. I told her my group could check into the delay and asked her when she called to make the request. That's when she told me 'they' called her and she thought 'hey what the heck I may as well request one since they called me on the phone (how convenient).' I explained that the office of elections calls no one to see if s/he wants to request a form...we call them. I told her how I had heard 'Democrats' were calling Floridians and telling them not to go to the polls because their absentee ballots would arrive in 2-3 weeks OR cut out the absentee ballot form from the newspaper and send it in. The young woman was horrified and said she didn't mind voting in person. I told her to go to the courthouse and vote right away (and report the fraud to the office of elections).
We have a toll free voter fraud hotline in Florida but will our complaints go on deaf ears with Glenda Harris (I meant Hood) in control??????
Spread the word about these injustices. Don't let anyone cut anything out of the paper and make sure they are manipulated on the phone. Thanks.
Posted by: Spike at October 21, 2004 10:48 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
One last poll. Media says Bush has gained on Kerry but Pew says otherwise.
Poll: Pew Research
Oct 15-19 (Oct 1-3)
Bush 47 (49)
Kerry 47 (44)
Nadar 1 (2)
Undecided 5 (5)
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 10:50 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mitchell Research was the sole non-partisan pollster to find Bush ahead in the last 3 months in a Michigan poll. Every other poll -- every other poll has Kerry ahead. All other recent polls have Kerry ahead by at least points. I will dismiss this as an outlier.
Posted by: erg at October 21, 2004 10:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Voter fraud. OK, let's talk New Mexico. Why is it that my aunt, and several of her friends have received notification that their absentee ballot was going to be mailed to them, and they never requested it? Why would it be that likely Republican voters have received these "notifications", but oddly, neighboring hispanic and native american voters have not? Remember, all Democrats are saints.
Posted by: MarkOlsen at October 21, 2004 12:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hi All:
I am conducting a study in the dependency between personality as measured by the Myers-Briggs test and political affiliation at:
http://info-theory.blogspot.com/2004/10/political-affiliation-personality.html
Please participate in this 2-5 minute study. In return you will receive an interesting personality assessment (by link after the test), $1 PayPal'd for your time, and the results of the study once complete.
Instuctions are at the link.
Thanks,
Paul
Posted by: Paul Deignan at October 21, 2004 12:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Sorry -- took this for granted.
The study is directed at US registered voters only.
Thanks,
Paul
Posted by: Paul Deignan at October 21, 2004 12:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It is nice to see a national poll with Kerry ahead.
Associated Press-Ipsos poll
Current (10/4-6)
Bush 46(46)
Kerry 49(50)
Ralph 2(2)
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 03:02 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Another bit of good news. The Charleston Gazette is reporting things are much closer than what's been reported in West Virginia. Some independent poll that has apparently went unreported showed Bush with an insignificant two point lead (keep in mind Bush was expected to win by 10 points in WV in 2000, but only ended up winning by 6 points. Another report I read yesterday showed WV coal miners supporting Kerry by a 10-1 margin. This was the group that I thought was the softest for Democrats, so it's very encouraging to hear they're so firmly behind Kerry. From the beginning, I was prepared to write this state off, but now I think Kerry should consider making another visit. You never know....
Posted by: Mark at October 21, 2004 03:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Yes, the race is FL will be a nail bitter again unless something breaks in the next 1 �� weeks. At least Kerry is trending up.
Quinnipiac University
10/15-19 (Prior around 10/5)
Bush 48 (51)
Kerry 47 (44)
Ralph 1 (0)
Undecided 4 (5)
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
At the risk of losing credibility:
Unless there is a massive sway in national sentiment, I guarantee Kerry will take Michigan. As a Michigander with a diverse groups of friends and family across political boundaries, I assure you this state will stay blue. My home town is a national guard town in rural, hunting northern Michigan, and I have never seen so many signs for a Democrat as I have for Kerry. In addition, my moderate Republican friends have switched sides for this one or are not voting, while all my liberal and/or Democratic friends are voting Kerry for sure. I know only one Nader supporter.
I do not base my opinion here on want or hope. All the indicaters I think of point to Kerry taking Michigan.
I promise you, unless there is massive sway in national sentiment, this is one less state to worry about.
Posted by: Ken at October 21, 2004 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My current thoughts of how this election will break:
Kerry wins: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME(3), MD, MA, MI, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA = 227 EVs.
Bush wins: AL, AK, AZ, AR, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WY = 222 EVs.
Victor of election wins FL, IA, ME (1), MN, NV, NH, NM, OH, WI = 89 Evs.
It will be either Kerry 316 - 222 or Bush 311 - 227.
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 04:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Victor of election wins FL, IA, ME (1), MN, NV, NH, NM, OH, WI, WV = 89 Evs.
Posted by: DFuller at October 21, 2004 04:31 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Many conservatives are unhappy with Bush's massive spending and his attacks on civil liberties. While these unhappy conservatives are probably not prepared to switch their vote to Kerry, many would seriously consider switching their vote to Libertarian Michael Badnarik. So by helping Badnarik get more visibility, you can hurt Bush chances of winning battleground states like Wisconsin!
Posted by: VoteBadnarik at October 21, 2004 09:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
For those alarmed at the Mitchell poll.
1. According to a pro GOP website (no URL from me) It's a (GOP) poll.
2. The sample size was extremely small and the MOE was extremely high. When Strategic Vision polls (GOP) show Kerry up or tied you can pretty much rest assured Kerry is up.
Has anyone noticed the uptick in strategic Vision polls?
It seems there's a poll war going on and there are more and more stealth pollsters out these days. Today looks a bit bad because all the heavy republican slanted state polls came out today (Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Gallop) And some of these groups are doing two and three of the exact same poll with the exact same methodology at a time. Many of the pollsters that take only the last poll, even if it's from strategic Vision, moved Michigan into the toss up column today thanks solely to the mitchel poll, and Gallop and SV polls coming out. Gallop brags they've been doing it for 50 years. Given they had Bush up 13, then 2 days before the election up 8, We know what actually happened. THERE IS NO WAY GORE WAS SUCH A GREAT CAMPAIGNER THE LAST 3 DAYS HE GAINED 13 POINTS. that tells you how old their LV model is (50 years most likely) Michigan IS NOT in play. Kerry's up.
Trends are going Kerry's way in Wisconsin and Iowa as well. Ohio and Florida are still razor thin.
Posted by: Kerrywillwin at October 21, 2004 10:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Kerry getting stronger in PA.
Poll: Quinnipiac University
Oct 22 (Oct 12)
Bush 46 (47)
Kerry 51 (49)
Undecided 4 (4)
Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 01:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
So if you were Kerry's advisers, where specifically would you send him in these final 10 days of the campaign? Here's my rough assessment of hot spots I would go to before campaign's end.
Little Rock and Pine Bluff, Arkansas
Denver, Colorado (he's already in Pueblo or I'd say that one too)
Tallahassee, Florida
Orlando, Florida
Daytona Beach, Florida
Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Florida
Mason City, Iowa
Des Moines, Iowa
Davenport, Iowa
Dubuque, Iowa
Detroit-Ann Arbor, Michigan
suburban Minneapolis, Minnesota
Rochester and Mankato, Minnesota
St. Louis, Missouri
Las Vegas, Nevada
Nashua, New Hampshire
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Santa Fe, New Mexico
Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina
Cleveland, Ohio
Columbus, Ohio
Canton-Massillon, Ohio
Toledo, Ohio
Portland, Oregon
Philadelphia, PA-Camden, NJ
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Erie, PA
Norfolk, Virginia
Charleston, West Virginia
La Crosse, Wisconsin
Madison, Wisconsin
Posted by: Mark at October 22, 2004 01:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
FDU's latest poll shows Kerry up 46-40 in NJ, 49-41 if leaners are included. I really don't see BUsh taking NJ -- even polls that are close have horrible internals for BUsh.
Posted by: erg at October 22, 2004 02:13 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
My goodness, Mark, are there enough days left for Kerry and Edwards to visit all those places?
Posted by: Pepe at October 22, 2004 02:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Pepe, probably not, but he could hit four or five places in one day in Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. This was more or less a list of options. Clearly if Kerry is seven points behind by Monday, he won't be visiting Raleigh-Durham, NC. On the other hand, if he pulls ahead by Monday, he won't have to bother with Detroit.
Posted by: Mark at October 22, 2004 02:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
GO KARRY!!!!JOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRYJOHN KARRY
Posted by: semore butts at October 22, 2004 02:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I will just go with states I think Kerry need to hit in order from most to least:
1) OH - This state will probably be razor thin.
2) FL - See OH.
3) WI - We need you to stay blue.
4) IA - A loss in WI and IA can nullify a win in OH.
5) PA - I don't think we will lose here but with Bush camped out in PA all year we still need to show them some love.
6) MI - I don't think we will lose MI, but I think a visit or two to sure up the state is needed. There are a lot of EVs here.
7) NJ- See MI.
States low on the priority list:
1) NM - Not very many EV's here and isolated. In the time it takes to get to NM you could see two higher priority states.
2) NH - Probably have this state won. I would worry more about visiting bigger states like MI for securing the state than NH.
3) WV - Could win but probably will lose here. A small number of EV's also.
States to avoid:
WA & OR - Kerry already has these in the bag.
NV, CO, MO, VA, NC, & AR - Outside shot at winning these states. If they win any of these, they will have FL & OH won too. I don't see these states putting Kerry over the top.
Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
4.5. MN - A tight race that Kerry should win. Don't ignore MN because there votes are extremely important. A loss in MN, IA, & WI would nullify a win in FL.
Posted by: DFuller at October 22, 2004 03:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I would put MN above IA actually. I don't think NH is in the bag, incidentally. As for NJ, Kerry should probably visit it once.
Posted by: erg at October 22, 2004 03:41 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment